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What are Odds of Falcons three-game season sweep of Saints?


JCITOW
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The Falcons are definitely going to play the Saints next Monday night and the way the season is shaping up, these two teams are going to play again in the Divisional Rounds. There is a lot of talk on this board and nationally about the Falcons facing the Eagles and Vick in the Championship Rounds of the playoffs. Before that happens, however, in all likelihood, the Falcons will have to face the Saints two more times. Thus, my focus is on the Saints more than the Eagles currently. Statistically, I was wondering because the Falcons will have to play the Saints 3 times, would it be better if the they lost to the Saints Monday night? I am just speaking as a fan here. However, I did a little research and discovered NFL teams that beat any single opponent twice during the regular season have a 61% chance of beating them a third time if the same teams meet in a playoff game. Specifically, since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, there have been 18 times when a team went into a playoff game with a chance to complete a three-game season sweep, according to STATS, Inc. Those teams are 11-7. My link The Saints have never won a road playoff game in their 44-year history. My link I think the Saints will overcome this historical fact when they play the NFC west champ in the playoffs. But I do not think the Saints will end the Falcons playoff run.

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Apparently this scenario has happened 19.. make that 20 times since the 1970 merger.

And it looks lie the record of teams beating the same team 3 times in one year is 13-7.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/319153-beating-a-team-three-times-in-one-season-easier-done-than-said

Please note the above article was written before the Cowboys played the Eagles last year in the playoffs.

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The Falcons are definitely going to play the Saints next Monday night and the way the season is shaping up, these two teams are going to play again in the Divisional Rounds. There is a lot of talk on this board and nationally about the Falcons facing the Eagles and Vick in the Championship Rounds of the playoffs. Before that happens, however, in all likelihood, the Falcons will have to face the Saints two more times. Thus, my focus is on the Saints more than the Eagles currently. Statistically, I was wondering because the Falcons will have to play the Saints 3 times, would it be better if the they lost to the Saints Monday night? I am just speaking as a fan here. However, I did a little research and discovered NFL teams that beat any single opponent twice during the regular season have a 61% chance of beating them a third time if the same teams meet in a playoff game. Specifically, since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, there have been 18 times when a team went into a playoff game with a chance to complete a three-game season sweep, according to STATS, Inc. Those teams are 11-7. My link The Saints have never won a road playoff game in their 44-year history. My link I think the Saints will overcome this historical fact when they play the NFC west champ in the playoffs. But I do not think the Saints will end the Falcons playoff run.

Gambler's fallacy.

The fact that we win the first two would not effect the outcome of the third. That probability is only meaningful BEFORE the games are played. After they are in the books, the only probability that matters is the next game.

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Apparently this scenario has happened 19.. make that 20 times since the 1970 merger.

And it looks lie the record of teams beating the same team 3 times in one year is 13-7.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/319153-beating-a-team-three-times-in-one-season-easier-done-than-said

Please note the above article was written before the Cowboys played the Eagles last year in the playoffs.

Thanks. That makes me feel a little better becasue now the percentage is 65% rather than 61%.

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Thanks. That makes me feel a little better becasue now the percentage is 65% rather than 61%.

Kinda hard to look at those stats at face value. In those scenarios, 2 teams have played each other twice, drafted & acquired FA players to match up with that contender in their own division. I would think it would be difficult to sweep them. Can you break it down more? Like were there cases where the Wild Card team beat the the division winner 3 times? Hard to be a wildcard & sweep the division winner but look at the wacky West from both divisions this year...anything could happen. The higher percentage would have to be where the division winner beat the wildcard 3 times...thinking like the Bucs being an up & coming team this year but only beat teams with losing records. Just a thought.

Edited by Sidious
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Gambler's fallacy.

The fact that we win the first two would not effect the outcome of the third. That probability is only meaningful BEFORE the games are played. After they are in the books, the only probability that matters is the next game.

^This. If we beat the Saints on MNF, then the odds of the Falcons getting a 3-game sweep if we play them again do not exist. There is only the odds that we beat them once at home.

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Both games will be at home. I give it a 75% chance we beat them 3 times, 25% chance they don't get far enough.

Kyrbyr, I agree with you 100% and I really do not get wrapped up in all the hype. But I cannot figure why people think NO is a better them this year.

Too bad the odd makers do not see it our way.

"According to our odds bros at Odds Shark, the Atlanta Falcons are only favored -2 against the New Orleans Saints. Even though the game is being played in Atlanta, the Falcons have the better record, New Orleans has already lost to Atlanta in the Superdome, Atlanta won convincingly last week (yesterday), and the Saints lost last week (yesterday).

Standard home-team bump is three points, and with Matt Ryans absurd 18-1 home record Atlantas is probably more like four. This means New Orleans could be favored by as much as -6 if the game were being played in New Orleans, which is an even bigger spread than week three, when the Super Bowl champion Saints were favored over the 1-1 Falcons by -4.5.

Interesting.

The Saints are every bit as talented as the Falcons, and with a few breaks for either side their records could be inverted. But lets not play like the Saints havent caught their share of lucky bounces over the past two years.

Still, New Orleans has much more to lose here, having not clinched a playoff spot and needing a win to keep Atlanta from clinching home field. If the Falcons can win in New Orleans, then the Saints could win in Atlanta." My link

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Here's one to factor- when the playoffs begin, every qualifying team is 0-0

a new season begins wink.gif

what about all of the threads posted a week or so back about how the saints beat their opponents by a greater margin than the falcons did and so on? where is all of the comparisons now??

Down with the SAINTS! I love how as the season goes on the saints fans cannon fodder gets less and less. In a few more weeks there will be no more fuel..

GO FALCONS!

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Saints will make the post season, that i'm sure of

You must be disappointed though after yesterday as its a glaring weakness the Saints Run D and all the teams like us who like to run the ball no it.Almost like a shark attack and theres blood in the water as soon as a good team smells weakness they keep knawing at it until the house comes down.The only person on the Saints team that really worries me is Brees all the rest I think we can handle if we can contain Brees I'm afraid the house is coming down around your ears.

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except for their valuable post season experience, yes...that shouldn't be understated agree?

SO I do expect you to not EVER bring up "But we're better because we won the superbowl last year!!!!"

. . right?

It is rather hypocritical for YOU, of all people,. to make that argument.

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You must be disappointed though after yesterday as its a glaring weakness the Saints Run D and all the teams like us who like to run the ball no it.Almost like a shark attack and theres blood in the water as soon as a good team smells weakness they keep knawing at it until the house comes down.The only person on the Saints team that really worries me is Brees all the rest I think we can handle if we can contain Brees I'm afraid the house is coming down around your ears.

Saints didn't get spanked, they are still in contention, and Chris Ivory will be back in time for the playoffs...that's all I take from yesterday.

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