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There is only 1 possible scenario for us not to make the playoffs


Robb4242
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Atlanta loses to Seattle, New Orleans, & Carolina

New Orleans beats either Baltimore or Tampa Bay & Atlanta

Green Bay beats New England, Chicago, & New York Giants

Chicago beats Minnesota, New York Jets but loses to Green Bay

Philadelphia loses to the New York Giants and beats Minnesota, Dallas

New York Giants beats Minnesota, Philadelphia, loses to Green Bay, and beats Washington

All of that has to happen. If 1 game does not work out like this, Atlanta is in the playoffs.

Tampa could also go 11-5 with the above scenario, but it would not matter, we swept them, so they would be eliminated in tie breaker #1 and are a non-factor.

Given all that has to happen, I like our chances a lot.

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Atlanta loses to Seattle, New Orleans, & Carolina

New Orleans beats either Baltimore or Tampa Bay & Atlanta

Green Bay beats New England, Chicago, & New York Giants

Chicago beats Minnesota, New York Jets but loses to Green Bay

Philadelphia loses to the New York Giants and beats Minnesota, Dallas

New York Giants beats Minnesota, Philadelphia, loses to Green Bay, and beats Washington

All of that has to happen. If 1 game does not work out like this, Atlanta is in the playoffs.

Tampa could also go 11-5 with the above scenario, but it would not matter, we swept them, so they would be eliminated in tie breaker #1 and are a non-factor.

Given all that has to happen, I like our chances a lot.

It means nothing without home field advantage. If we win vs. Seattle and Carolina, our next road game would be the Super Bowl.......

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It means nothing without home field advantage. If we win vs. Seattle and Carolina, our next road game would be the Super Bowl.......

You know we are 5-2 on the road right? While we are unstoppable at home it's not like we are a bad road team this year.

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You know we are 5-2 on the road right? While we are unstoppable at home it's not like we are a bad road team this year.

In fact, in our last 10 road games, we are 8-2, with one loss coming to Pittsburgh in overtime - and the other to the Eagles in a semi blow-out (lost by 14 points). That is winning 80% on the road.

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Atlanta loses to Seattle, New Orleans, & Carolina

New Orleans beats either Baltimore or Tampa Bay & Atlanta

Green Bay beats New England, Chicago, & New York Giants

Chicago beats Minnesota, New York Jets but loses to Green Bay

Philadelphia loses to the New York Giants and beats Minnesota, Dallas

New York Giants beats Minnesota, Philadelphia, loses to Green Bay, and beats Washington

All of that has to happen. If 1 game does not work out like this, Atlanta is in the playoffs.

Tampa could also go 11-5 with the above scenario, but it would not matter, we swept them, so they would be eliminated in tie breaker #1 and are a non-factor.

Given all that has to happen, I like our chances a lot.

GB would be 11-5 in this sceenario and we own the tie breaker over them....WE WOULD STILL BE IN!

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GB would be 11-5 in this sceenario and we own the tie breaker over them....WE WOULD STILL BE IN!

In the OP scenario Green Bay would win their division and our tie-breaker over them would be irrelevant.

I think the next criterion is wins within the division so an 11 and 5 Chicago would have the tie breaker.

We would be penalized for going 3 and 1 against the 'superior' AFC.

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Wrong, in this scenario the Packers would win their division so the tie breaker would not matter. It would be the Bears that take the WC over us.

I've been trying to figure out what I'm missing (and why we haven't already clinched a playoff spot) all morning.

If GB wins out and Chicago beats Minny and the Jets, they are both 11-5. They would have split the season series, but GB would be 4-2 vs NFCN and Chicago would be 5-1. How can GB win the division if Chicago wins 11?

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I've been trying to figure out what I'm missing (and why we haven't already clinched a playoff spot) all morning.

If GB wins out and Chicago beats Minny and the Jets, they are both 11-5. They would have split the season series, but GB would be 4-2 vs NFCN and Chicago would be 5-1. How can GB win the division if Chicago wins 11?

No idea, I didnt think about that. Really I think we all are thinking about this way to hard. For any of this to work we need to lose out, and I dont see that happening. Even if we lose our next 2 I do not see us losing to the Panthers, week 17, at home.

Ok after reading through things again the way we dont make it is if the Packers win their division. For the Packers to win their division they need to go 11-5 and have the Bears go 10-6. The Bears CANNOT pass us for the WC if they go 10-6 because no matter what happens we will be 11-5. Also if the Falcons and Packers both finish 11-5 and the Packers dont win their division we own the tiebreaker. I dont see how the Packers win their division and the Bears pass us for the WC.

Edited by DemDirtyBirds4
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I've been trying to figure out what I'm missing (and why we haven't already clinched a playoff spot) all morning.

If GB wins out and Chicago beats Minny and the Jets, they are both 11-5. They would have split the season series, but GB would be 4-2 vs NFCN and Chicago would be 5-1. How can GB win the division if Chicago wins 11?

They can't. All is fine and dandy if we were only competing against the nfc north. Throw the Giants or Philly in and head-to-heat doesn't count since everybody lost one game. Strength of victory comes into play next. Since we played the nfc west, it's going to hurt.

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I think I know my problem. For some reason, I was think Philly beat GB, but it was the other way around. So the only scenario possible where we miss the playoffs involves a 3-way tie between Atl, GB, and Philly at 11-5 with NY winning the East. In that case, no team would be in or eliminated based on H2H (originally I was thinkg Philly's wins vs GB and Atl would get them the 5 seed with Atl then winning the 6 seed based on their win against GB). We would all have the same conference record at 8-4 and there would not be 4+ common games between the three moving the tie-breaker to strength of victory.

I am all clear. :wacko:

BTW, in this scenario, NY must also be 11-5, otherwise it means they beat GB and GB can't get to 11 wins.

Edited by Lucky_Tom
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LOL kind of gives a glimpse into how many times Falcons fans have been let down. Our path is clear to HFA and we are still wondering if there are ways for us to be left out altogether.

knock on a ****ing oak tree, but anything disastrous can happen in this 3-game streak. But if we handle business and catch the great health we've had all season, we should be in by a landslide. I'd love for the Saints to get knocked out the playoffs though, they have a pretty tough stretch to get in.

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I think I know my problem. For some reason, I was think Philly beat GB, but it was the other way around. So the only scenario possible where we miss the playoffs involves a 3-way tie between Atl, GB, and Philly at 11-5 with NY winning the East. In that case, no team would be in or eliminated based on H2H (originally I was thinkg Philly's wins vs GB and Atl would get them the 5 seed with Atl then winning the 6 seed based on their win against GB). We would all have the same conference record at 8-4 and there would not be 4+ common games between the three moving the tie-breaker to strength of victory.

I am all clear. :wacko:

Thanks for the info. So it is kind of like what happened in the Big 10 this year, where the used the BCS standings to decide who plays in the Rose Bowl. Also it kind of sucks because we get penalized for the NFC West being bad even though it looks like we will sweep all of them. I really dont see it comming down to this because I do not see us losing out the rest of the year.

Edited by DemDirtyBirds4
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I think I know my problem. For some reason, I was think Philly beat GB, but it was the other way around. So the only scenario possible where we miss the playoffs involves a 3-way tie between Atl, GB, and Philly at 11-5 with NY winning the East. In that case, no team would be in or eliminated based on H2H (originally I was thinkg Philly's wins vs GB and Atl would get them the 5 seed with Atl then winning the 6 seed based on their win against GB). We would all have the same conference record at 8-4 and there would not be 4+ common games between the three moving the tie-breaker to strength of victory.

I am all clear. :wacko:

BTW, in this scenario, NY must also be 11-5, otherwise it means they beat GB and GB can't get to 11 wins.

That or a 3 way tie with atl-gb-giants

I like out chances though.

Win against Seattle and Carolina. It doesn't matter what happens Monday night

Edit:

Stand Corrected:

"BTW, in this scenario, NY must also be 11-5, otherwise it means they beat GB and GB can't get to 11 wins."

Edited by Alaxar
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Atlanta loses to Seattle, New Orleans, & Carolina

New Orleans beats either Baltimore or Tampa Bay & Atlanta

Green Bay beats New England, Chicago, & New York Giants

Chicago beats Minnesota, New York Jets but loses to Green Bay

Philadelphia loses to the New York Giants and beats Minnesota, Dallas

New York Giants beats Minnesota, Philadelphia, loses to Green Bay, and beats Washington

All of that has to happen. If 1 game does not work out like this, Atlanta is in the playoffs.

Tampa could also go 11-5 with the above scenario, but it would not matter, we swept them, so they would be eliminated in tie breaker #1 and are a non-factor.

Given all that has to happen, I like our chances a lot.

As of last night we needed the Eagles or the Giants to lose in order to "clinch a playoff slot". Even if the Giants win tonight we're still a lock to get in as next week the Eagles and Giants face each other. So either loss will clinch a spot regardless of what we do, no?

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As of last night we needed the Eagles or the Giants to lose in order to "clinch a playoff slot". Even if the Giants win tonight we're still a lock to get in as next week the Eagles and Giants face each other. So either loss will clinch a spot regardless of what we do, no?

No. That matchup is factored into this week's playoff scenarios.

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In a 3-way tie with GB and NY, NY would take the 5-seed based on conference record and then we would take the 6 seed based on H2H with GB.

Again in a three way tie, Head to head is not applicable (according to NFL wildcard tiebreaking rules) It would then go to conference record (I think we edge GB here....but NYG has done well in Conf....

take a look below the three or more way ties favor us in most cases at least from what I can figure out...it is like calculus and physics all rolled into one but harder LOL

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

Strength of victory.

Strength of schedule.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best net points in conference games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss

I would worry about strength of Victory..Both had some games where they put up big points while most of our games were close (not sure where we end up)..we have not blown many people out....but our strength of Schedule is above theirs thanks to the Saints and TB....

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LOL kind of gives a glimpse into how many times Falcons fans have been let down. Our path is clear to HFA and we are still wondering if there are ways for us to be left out altogether.

Agree with us being let down a lot, but that's not what I was looking for here. I was trying to figure out exactly why we had not clinched at least a playoff berth at 11-2. The ONLY reason was this 1 scenario. If it plays out ANY other way we're locked into the playoffs and an extremely good shot at HFA.

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Again in a three way tie, Head to head is not applicable (according to NFL wildcard tiebreaking rules) It would then go to conference record (I think we edge GB here....but NYG has done well in Conf....

take a look below the three or more way ties favor us in most cases at least from what I can figure out...it is like calculus and physics all rolled into one but harder LOL

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

Strength of victory.

Strength of schedule.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best net points in conference games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss

I would worry about strength of Victory..Both had some games where they put up big points while most of our games were close (not sure where we end up)..we have not blown many people out....but our strength of Schedule is above theirs thanks to the Saints and TB....

1) A 3-way tie is not a 3-way tie anymore if one team either beats or is beaten by the other two teams (See bolded note in your message. In a 3-way tie with GB and NY, NY would break the tie based on conference record and get the 5-seed. IF GB and Atl tie at 11-5, they would have the same conference record, thus reverting to a 2-way tie in which we would win the H2H tie-breaker.

2) Strength of Victory has nothing to do with points scored or margin of victory. It is simply the combined record of the teams that a team has beaten (vs Strength of Schedule which is the combined record of all teams played).

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Atlanta loses to Seattle, New Orleans, & Carolina

New Orleans beats either Baltimore or Tampa Bay & Atlanta

Green Bay beats New England, Chicago, & New York Giants

Chicago beats Minnesota, New York Jets but loses to Green Bay

Philadelphia loses to the New York Giants and beats Minnesota, Dallas

New York Giants beats Minnesota, Philadelphia, loses to Green Bay, and beats Washington

All of that has to happen. If 1 game does not work out like this, Atlanta is in the playoffs.

Tampa could also go 11-5 with the above scenario, but it would not matter, we swept them, so they would be eliminated in tie breaker #1 and are a non-factor.

Given all that has to happen, I like our chances a lot.

AS a life long Falcons Fan (and my life started in 1970 although my wife would have people believe it started in 1996 when we met)...

I would have to say if any one could do it the Falcons could. :P

Edited by PensacolaFalcon
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