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Falcons at -3


demburds
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I dont post much, but I'm a Falcons fan stationed out of state and I get down on the games every week because i'm a pathetic degenerate.

The line hasnt moved off that number all week. The wiseguys are either split or not touching it altogether. If I had a gun to my head I'd take Bucs +3, simply because I'm confident the game winds up a push or landing on 1 over 50% of the time. And I'm only 50% confident that I'm right about that 50%. I think there is a lot more value on taking the Falcons moneyline here. I cant find any solid value in the spread at all.

What you guys think?

Edited by demburds
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I dont post much, but I'm a Falcons fan stationed out of state and I get down on the games every week because i'm a pathetic degenerate.

The line hasnt moved off that number all week. The wiseguys are either split or not touching it altogether. If I had a gun to my head I'd take Bucs +3, simply because I'm confident the game winds up a push or landing on over 50% of the time. I think there is a lot more value on taking the Falcons moneyline here. I cant find any solid value in the spread at all.

What you guys think?

Considering the injuries Tampa Bay just went through and the way we are playing, i take falcons on that spread.

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Considering the injuries Tampa Bay just went through and the way we are playing, i take falcons on that spread.

Its not like those guys were pro bowlers. They got put on IR on Monday and the line still hasnt moved. We are already sitting on a +6 swing as a road team if you give the Bucs 3 points for being at home anyway. If anything those injuries justify getting down on the moneyline, but the spread is a lot more tricky. I still think Bucs +3 has more value than Falcons -3. I dont hate either bet though.

Edited by demburds
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there is one online sportsbook with a wiseguy that has bet big on the Bucs and pushed the line down a full point to -2! Every other bookie is holding strong at -3. This is crazy. I have feeling that the wiseguys across the board are indeed getting down on the Bucs at +3, but the bookies are choosing to stay heavy anyway because they are greedy and dont believe the Bucs cover. And only one bookie has blinked so far and gone to -2 and its going to work too because I cant pass up that. I'm going balls deep on -2. Balls deep.

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