ANALYSIS: Moss may be Falcons only chance to win the Superbowl

[Mr. Right]

Last year the Falcons saw its first back to back winning seasons by ending on a 9-7 record. While this was a great accomplishment for the franchise, divisional rival Saints won its first Superbowl in the same year.

It is unreasonable to assume the Falcons should be Superbowl contenders in its second year under Mike Smith, but with the third season almost half-way over, Superbowl winners should be the only goal on the front office's mind. The concept that the Falcons are not a rebuilding team has been explained before. Why else then, would a so called 'rebuilding' team sign a future HOFer with only 2 years left on his contract? Rebuilding teams don't go out and trade for big name players. Instead, they look to build through the draft. When have the Lions or Rams made a big splash in the free agency?

By signing a big name player, the front office definitely has winning on its mind. Dunta Robinson's signing only verifies this notion. Even Tony Gonzalez has admitted he only wants to play for a playoff contender.

In the 3rd season under Mike Smith, the Falcons are seeing its best and last chance to make it to the Superbowl. This rational has been stated before but some main points need to be reiterated.

• Tony Gonzelez will likely not be with us next year (if we do not win a playoff game). This will leave us with only one playmaker on offense - Roddy White. Our passing offense will drastically suffer with no up and coming WR.
  

• John Abraham is in decline. Who besides Kroy Biermann can provide a pass rush? Biermann only has 1 sack this year. DEs normally take 2-3 years to groom. Our FO's reluctance to sign players will not create any instant fixes.
  

• A possible NFL lockout will drastically change the playing field. Players will get older even if they don't play.
  

As the best chance for the Falcons to win the Superbowl is this year, we must examine what is needed to increase the likelihood of this happening. Looking at the stats, one significant trend arises. When the running game is non-existent we not only do not score points, we don't win games. Let's look at the correlation between the two:

Game 1: Loss to Steelers

Score: 9-15

Rush Yards: 58

Passing Yards: 237

Game 2: Win against Cardinals

Score: 41-7

Rush Yards: 221

Passing Yards: 223

Game 3: Win against Saints

Score: 27-24

Rush Yards: 202

Passing Yards: 215

Game 4: Win against 49ers

Score: 16-14

Rush Yards: 98

Passing Yards: 259

Game 5: Win against Browns

Score: 20-10

Rush Yards: 165

Passing Yards: 173

Game 6: Loss to Eagles

Score: 17-31

Rush Yards: 65

Passing Yards: 228

Game 7: Win against Bengals

Score: 39-32

Rush Yards: 153

Passing Yards: 299

As you can see, when the Falcons fail to have over 100 yards rushing, the Falcons also fail to score 3 touchdowns. The Falcons also generally lose games, with the exception in the 49ers game in which the Falcons needed a last minute field goal. What we can learn from this is that the Falcons offense is based on the run. The run opens the pass (NOT the pass opens the run like for the Colts, Patriots, Eagles).

While this run-first philosophy is fine, the problem is, when defenses shut down the run, we will lose. And it just happens so that in the playoffs, teams shut down the run. We will not be facing teams like the Cardinals in the playoff, where we can just rack up 8 yards a carry. We will be facing tough defenses like the Giants who can stop the run. So when that happens, what is our contingency plan? Can our coaches make half-time adjustments? Can the front office fix this problem before it is too late?

Part of the fix depends on our QB. Is Matt Ryan a game manager or a play making quarterback? If he is a game manager, then our run-first philosophy is fine. All we need to do is beef up the o-line so we can run on the toughest defenses like the Giants.

However, if Matt Ryan is the play maker that many fans seem to think he is,(Note: Matt Ryan has yet to throw over 300 yards this season), then we must allow him to carry the game on his shoulders. We must give him playmakers so that even if the running game is stopped, we can pass to win the games.

This is where Randy Moss comes in. If currently the run opens the pass for us, imagine if the pass also opens the run for us. How will Turner do then? How many games would win?

Although the NFL is not the MLB, teams in the MLB trade for that one crucial piece all the time to make it to the playoffs. Just look at the Rangers with the acquisition of Cliff Lee. Moss will can be that one year player. He is not a 10 year $100 million guy.

The FO talks about winning consistently but is consistently ending on a 9-7 record ideal? Yes we have a winning record but in the end, the Saints still have 1 more ring than us.

Edited November 2, 2010 by Mr. Right

[Porkins]

Last year the Falcons saw its first back to back winning seasons by ending on a 9-7 record. While this was a great accomplishment for the franchise, divisional rival Saints won its first Superbowl in the same year.

It is unreasonable to assume the Falcons should be Superbowl contenders in its second year under Mike Smith, but with the third season almost half-way over, Superbowl winners should be the only goal on the front office's mind. The concept that the Falcons are not a rebuilding team has been explained before. Why else then, would a so called 'rebuilding' team sign a future HOFer with only 2 years left on his contract? Rebuilding teams don't go out and trade for big name players. Instead, they look to build through the draft. When have the Lions or Rams made a big splash in the free agency?

By signing a big name player, the front office definitely has winning on its mind. Dunta Robinson's signing only verifies this notion. Even Tony Gonzalez has admitted he only wants to play for a playoff contender.

In the 3rd season under Mike Smith, the Falcons are seeing its best and last chance to make it to the Superbowl. This rational has been stated before but some main points need to be reiterated.

• Tony Gonzelez will likely not be with us next year (if we do not win a playoff game). This will leave us with only one playmaker on offense - Roddy White. Our passing offense will drastically suffer with no up and coming WR.

• John Abraham is in decline. Who besides Kroy Biermann can provide a pass rush? Biermann only has 1 sack this year. DEs normally take 2-3 years to groom. Our FO's reluctance to sign players will not create any instant fixes.

• A possible NFL lockout will drastically change the playing field. Players will get older even if they don't play.

As the best chance for the Falcons to win the Superbowl is this year, we must examine what is needed to increase the likelihood of this happening. Looking at the stats, one significant trend arises. When the running game is non-existent we not only do not score points, we don't win games. Let's look at the correlation between the two:

Game 1: Loss to Steelers

Score: 9-15

Rush Yards: 58

Passing Yards: 237

Game 2: Win against Cardinals

Score: 41-7

Rush Yards: 221

Passing Yards: 223

Game 3: Win against Saints

Score: 27-24

Rush Yards: 202

Passing Yards: 215

Game 4: Win against 49ers

Score: 16-14

Rush Yards: 98

Passing Yards: 259

Game 5: Win against Browns

Score: 20-10

Rush Yards: 165

Passing Yards: 173

Game 6: Loss to Eagles

Score: 17-31

Rush Yards: 65

Passing Yards: 228

Game 7: Win against Bengals

Score: 39-32

Rush Yards: 153

Passing Yards: 299

As you can see, when the Falcons fail to have over 100 yards rushing, the Falcons also fail to score 3 touchdowns. The Falcons also generally lose games, with the exception in the 49ers game in which the Falcons needed a last minute field goal. What we can learn from this is that the Falcons offense is based on the run. The run opens the pass (NOT the pass opens the run like for the Colts, Patriots, Eagles).

While this run-first philosophy is fine, the problem is, when defenses shut down the run, we will lose. And it just happens so that in the playoffs, teams shut down the run. We will not be facing teams like the Cardinals in the playoff, where we can just rack up 8 yards a carry. We will be facing tough defenses like the Giants who can stop the run. So when that happens, what is our contingency plan? Can our coaches make half-time adjustments? Can the front office fix this problem before it is too late?

Part of the fix depends on our QB. Is Matt Ryan a game manager or a play making quarterback? If he is a game manager, then our run-first philosophy is fine. All we need to do is beef up the o-line so we can run on the toughest defenses like the Giants.

However, if Matt Ryan is the play maker that many fans seem to think he is,(Note: Matt Ryan has yet to throw over 300 yards this season), then we must allow him to carry the game on his shoulders. We must give him playmakers so that even if the running game is stopped, we can pass to win the games.

This is where Randy Moss comes in. If currently the run opens the pass for us, imagine if the pass also opens the run for us. How will Turner do then? How many games would win?

Although the NFL is not the MLB, teams in the MLB trade for that one crucial piece all the time to make it to the playoffs. Just look at the Rangers with the acquisition of Cliff Lee. Moss will can be that one year player. He is not a 10 year $100 million guy.

The FO talks about winning consistently but is consistently ending on a 9-7 record ideal? Yes we have a winning record but in the end, the Saints still have 1 more ring than us.

That is a whole lot of effort and writing for something that the Falcons have almost no shot at doing. I know it's been mentioned multiple times already and I'm sure you've stumbled across at least one of those posts, but the Falcons are #29 or so on the waiver wire pecking order. It's not even necessarily a matter if we actually want Moss or not.. we have to wait for 28 other teams to pass on him before we are even allowed to consider picking him up. Do you REALLY think Moss is going to slip by 28 other teams if he's the difference maker and Superbowl guarantee you think he is?

[Tandy]

Falcons are 29th on the waiver list.

Exactly how many of those 28 teams pass on him for him to get that low?

Think man! Use that head for more than a hat rack!

[Red Death D]

Moss cant block, he wont come here

[Mr. Right]

That is a whole lot of effort and writing for something that the Falcons have almost no shot at doing. I know it's been mentioned multiple times already and I'm sure you've stumbled across at least one of those posts, but the Falcons are #29 or so on the waiver wire pecking order. It's not even necessarily a matter if we actually want Moss or not.. we have to wait for 28 other teams to pass on him before we are even allowed to consider picking him up. Do you REALLY think Moss is going to slip by 28 other teams if he's the difference maker and Superbowl guarantee you think he is?

Can Moss choose which team he wants to go to?

Edited November 2, 2010 by Mr. Right

[SiViK_OuTkAsT™]

I don't understand why you just don't drive up to Flowery Branch and settle this once and for all. It would be a whole lot less effort.

[gcjakesta85]

Can Moss choose which team he wants to go to?

No. The worst teams to best teams pick first. The bills and on down from worst record to best. We are at the top record wise, thus we get the last pick for Moss. A team has the option of snaching him up for what remains on his contract this year + next year. If no team picks him, hes avaliable for a lot cheeper price, but he gets to pick what team he wants to go to then. The poster above says he will be snatched up well before 28, and I say that a pretty fair assesment. If hes bypassed by 27 teams..I would be stunned..

[Goal Line D]

Man you really wasted a lot of your time on that one Mr. Right.

[Falconsfan567]

You are so right! Moss is always the key missing piece to any team's Super Bowl ring! I mean look at the Vikings in 1998. No way they win the Super Bowl without him! Look at the Raiders of 2005! They sure were awesome with Moss! And the Patriots in 2007 completed the only 19-0 perfect season in NFL history! Moss is always the missing piece!

Oh wait! None of those things happened! Thanks but no thanks!

[sporkdevil]

Has anyone been to 5 guys? They have really good burgers. Not sure who compares to them.

[Mr. Right]

You are so right! Moss is always the key missing piece to any team's Super Bowl ring! I mean look at the Vikings in 1998. No way they win the Super Bowl without him! Look at the Raiders of 2005! They sure were awesome with Moss! And the Patriots in 2007 completed the only 19-0 perfect season in NFL history! Moss is always the missing piece!

Oh wait! None of those things happened! Thanks but no thanks!

How about this. A playmaker in the passing game is the missing piece. Moss is the only one out there.

[Goal Line D]

Has anyone been to 5 guys? They have really good burgers. Not sure who compares to them.

Agreed! The best burger in town!!

[sporkdevil]

Agreed! The best burger in town!!

As far as semi-fast food burgers, it's got to be the tops. Checkers and Backyard burger are pretty good, but I like 5 guys. Just got one right by my place. I wish they had a drive through.

[Bullitt]

Has anyone been to 5 guys? They have really good burgers. Not sure who compares to them.

There's a place called Construct-a-Burger near me that is similar. Same huge order of fries and everything.

[sporkdevil]

There's a place called Construct-a-Burger near me that is similar. Same huge order of fries and everything.

Construct-A-Burger? Like a Fudruckers or something?

[Bullitt]

Construct-A-Burger? Like a Fudruckers or something?

Nah - it's almost exactly like 5 guys. Order at the counter and tell them what you want on your burger. The burgers are almost exactly the same.

p.s. excellent highjack

[Big Rob 64]

The Patriots had him, traded him away, and have played better since doing so.

The inept and incompetent Vikings, reeking of desperation, traded for him. Even their desperation was not inducement enough to keep him on their roster.

We do not need him. I, for one, do not want him. I believe we can win without him. The fact that we are so low on the waiver wire list is testament to this.

[Mr. Right]

Falcons are 29th on the waiver list.

Exactly how many of those 28 teams pass on him for him to get that low?

Think man! Use that head for more than a hat rack!

I wouldn't say the Falcons have that small of a chance as you'd think.

So say the Bills want Moss. Would they just sign him? I doubt it. They would likely go to Moss's agent first to get Moss' opinion on joining the Bills. If Moss says no, then I doubt the Bills would still put in a waiver claim for him knowing Moss' past issues - especially since Moss shuts down. Why would the Bills sign a $3 million player that doesn't really 'play.'

But why does Moss shut down in the first place? Well, let's assume he likes to play for winning teams. If we use this logic, then most of the first 16 or so teams won't have a chance of getting Moss motivated enough to actually play.

So Moss could very well fall to us.

[sporkdevil]

Nah - it's almost exactly like 5 guys. Order at the counter and tell them what you want on your burger. The burgers are almost exactly the same.

p.s. excellent highjack

Sounds good. Where is that located? Is there only one? I like it when they have a bunch of crazy stuff, like where you can get a buffalo burger or something. Speaking of which, anyone have a buffalo steak at Ted's? Highly recommended by Sporkdevil.

[Tandy]

I wouldn't say the Falcons have that small of a chance as you'd think.

So say the Bills want Moss. Would they just sign him? I doubt it. They would likely go to Moss's agent first to get Moss' opinion on joining the Bills. If Moss says no, then I doubt the Bills would still put in a waiver claim for him knowing Moss' past issues - especially since Moss shuts down. Why would the Bills sign a $3 million player that doesn't really 'play.'

But why does Moss shut down in the first place? Well, let's assume he likes to play for winning teams. If we use this logic, then most of the first 16 or so teams won't have a chance of getting Moss motivated enough to actually play.

So Moss could very well fall to us.

Not a chance. There are some desperate teams out there. IF, and it's a big IF - he makes it to the Rams - he is not going any further - and I think that's 15 or 16 - somewhere along there.

Secondly - Moss would have no say-so in the matter. The teams don't even talk to him - they through that waiver request in the mix as quickly as they can and wait to see who he's rewarded to - which is decided by order on the waiver list. He'll go to the team that picks up his contract.

The only way Moss has a say-so is if he makes it through waivers. Which - he won't.

Then - you talk about being motivated. Why would he be motivated to come to a run-first - power running team where he would be required to block for the run? If anything - we can be balanced when we have to - and we will pass when we are behind - but our run game and clock control game is what we do.

[cb5639]

Can Moss choose which team he wants to go to?

I don't think he can... but with his play with the Viking he sure is trying to dictate which team keeps him.

He's a bad dude but that play in which he was PI'd is unacceptable in my book

[Mr. Right]

Not a chance. There are some desperate teams out there. IF, and it's a big IF - he makes it to the Rams - he is not going any further - and I think that's 15 or 16 - somewhere along there.

Secondly - Moss would have no say-so in the matter. The teams don't even talk to him - they through that waiver request in the mix as quickly as they can and wait to see who he's rewarded to - which is decided by order on the waiver list. He'll go to the team that picks up his contract.

The only way Moss has a say-so is if he makes it through waivers. Which - he won't.

Moss may have no say in the amount on his contract, but Moss will still have a say when it comes to which team he wants to join, due to his past history of being disruptive and shutting down. Moss' leverage lies in the fact that he will not play if he doesn't feel like playing.

Are teams willing to sacrifice $3 million, a coveted roster spot, and the potential of Moss' lack of motivation rub off on other team members just for a comp pick? This is the risk losing teams have if they make a claim for him.

Perhaps they'll place him on the IR just to spite him? We'll see how that turns out.

[blkbigdog35]

C'mon man!!! We don't need Moss to come in and mess up our team chemistry, period!!

[Tandy]

Moss may have no say in the amount on his contract, but Moss will still have a say when it comes to which team he wants to join, due to his past history of being disruptive and shutting down. Moss' leverage lies in the fact that he will not play if he doesn't feel like playing.

Are teams willing to sacrifice $3 million, a coveted roster spot, and the potential of Moss' lack of motivation rub off on other team members just for a comp pick? This is the risk losing teams have if they make a claim for him.

Perhaps they'll place him on the IR just to spite him? We'll see how that turns out.

Are we?

[Mr. Right]

Then - you talk about being motivated. Why would he be motivated to come to a run-first - power running team where he would be required to block for the run? If anything - we can be balanced when we have to - and we will pass when we are behind - but our run game and clock control game is what we do.

Falcons need to show opponents that we can win with the passing game - that we aren't dependent on the running game. Our passing game needs to improve if we want to make it to the Superbowl. Our selling point is: we are winning already and we will win even more with a potent passing offense.