UNBIASED POWER RANKINGS

[MagnusXXIII]

Oct 26, 2010 - In the highest scoring weekend the NFL has seen since 1983, it makes sense that the number one team in the Unbiased Power Rankings is known for it's defense. Through seven weeks of play, the Pittsburgh Steelers' resume is unmatched and they sit atop our latest power rankings. The AFC continues to dominate these rankings as well with the top seven teams all hailing from la Conferencia Americana.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who head coach Raheem Morris called the best team in the NFC, were the biggest mover in this week's rankings rising nine spots to 15th. The Kansas City Chiefs (+6) and Cleveland Browns (5) also made their way up the ladder. A classic example of why the Unbiased Power Rankings are the calm in the storm are the New Orleans Saints. Last week many experts had them as the number one team in the NFC while we had them at No. 7. After their loss to the Browns, the pundits will drop them down but for the emotion-free rankings, they are who we thought they were.

The biggest losers this week were the Jacksonville Jaguars (-7), the San Diego Chargers (-5) and, despite not even playing, the New York Jets, who dropped five spots to sixth. The Jets suffered because their strength of schedule took a hit when the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos (four of the Jets' five wins) all lost. The Kansas City Chiefs, Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers are all ranked significantly lower in these rankings than they currently in the NFL standings. Though they all have winning records, they've combined to beat only one team with more wins than losses.

Tier I

Rank Team Rating

1 Pittsburgh Steelers 125.0

2 Tennessee Titans 108.5

Tier II

Rank Team Rating

3 Baltimore Ravens 98.5

3 Indianapolis Colts 98.5

5 Houston Texans 98.0

6 New England Patriots 90.0

6 New York Jets 90.0

8 Atlanta Falcons 89.5

9 Washington Redskins 88.7

10 New York Giants 84.5

Tier III

Rank Team Rating

11 Philadelphia Eagles 74.3

12 Seattle Seahawks 72.5

13 Arizona Cardinals 68.7

14 St. Louis Rams 67.8

15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 64.5

16 Kansas City Chiefs 64.0

17 New Orleans Saints 63.3

18 Chicago Bears 59.3

19 Denver Broncos 59.0

20 Green Bay Packers 58.7

21 Oakland Raiders 53.3

Tier IV

Rank Team Rating

22 Miami Dolphins 50.0

23 Jacksonville Jaguars 48.8

24 Cleveland Browns 44.6

25 Cincinnati Bengals 44.0

26 San Diego Chargers 43.8

27 Dallas Cowboys 30.0

Tier V

Rank Team Rating

28 Minnesota Vikings 24.0

29 Detroit Lions 23.8

30 San Francisco 49ers 23.7

31 Carolina Panthers 13.8

32 Buffalo Bills 4.2

The Best of the Best

The Steelers are the Creme de la Creme of the NFL. They have four wins against teams with winning records and their lone loss was to the five-win Ravens. They are the best team in the league and it's not close. However, if it was close, the Titans would be the team in the conversation. The Titans have only two losses - one to Pittsburgh - and have beaten a five-win team (Giants) and a four-win team (Eagles). There's another group of teams in the second tier but through seven weeks, it's the Steelers and Titans as the clear frontrunners.

The aforementioned second tier is home to five more AFC teams and three NFC participants. The Ravens, Colts, Texans, Patriots and Jets all have power ratings over 90. The Falcons, Redskins and Giants are the only NFC teams among the first two tiers.

NFC Contenders

We mentioned that many experts had the Saints as the best team in the NFC last week even though we tried to warn them the Saints were being overvalued. They've still only beaten one team with a winning record and are 17th in overall rankings (9th in the NFC). The class of the NFC is still the Falcons with the Redskins and Giants following close behind.

Among the preseason favorites, only the Eagles are close to expectations. The Saints, Packers, Cowboys and Vikings are all underperforming. Could a championship game between the Falcons and Donovan McNabb happen again? It's beginning to look like a strong possibility.

NFC South

Contrary to Morris' comments, the Buccaneers are not the best team in the NFC. They are not even the best team in the NFC South. That mantle belongs to the Falcons. The Buccaneers are the second-best though, ahead of the Saints. The Panthers finally won their first game of the year but they remain the worst team in the NFC.

I know it's only seven weeks and there's a lot of football left to play but if I may direct your attention to my preseason NFC South predictions. In that piece, I predicted an order of finish that is exactly as the NFC South stands today. Falcons as division winner, Buccaneers in second with the Saints and Panthers coming in at third and fourth. It's a gift and I only want to share it.

Unbiased Playoff Picture

Regardless of a team's current record, this is how we see the playoffs shaping up as of Week 8.

AFC NFC

Seed Team Seed Team

1 Pittsburgh Steelers 1 Atlanta Falcons

2 Tennessee Titans

2 Washington Redskins

3 New England Patriots

3 Seattle Seahawks

4 Kansas City Chiefs 4 Chicago Bears

5 Baltimore Ravens

5 New York Giants

6 Indianapolis Colts

6 Philadelphia Eagles

Disclaimer: The Texans could shake up the AFC playoff picture when they play the Colts on Monday Night. The Jets are tied with the Patriots so either one could win that division. In the NFC, the Cardinals and Rams could still challenge the Seahawks in the West and the Buccaneers and Saints are still in the mix for the Southern division or a wild card berth.

AFC Breakdown

First round AFC matchups would include the Colts at the Patriots. Wow. A wild card game worthy of a championship game. The Ravens in Kansas City to play the Chiefs. This would be a tough game for the young Chiefs.

The second round shakes out with the Colts at the Steelers. Offense vs. Defense personified. The Ravens and Titans would get a rematch of their 2009 playoff game won 13-10 by the Ravens.

The AFC championship would come down to two teams who have a bitter history, the Steelers and Titans. A third Super Bowl in six seasons looks like a strong possibility for the Steelers.

NFC Breakdown

Eagles at the Seahawks on Wild Card weekend. I wonder how many would have imagined the Seahawks hosting a home playoff game when the season started? The Giants would get another crack at the offensive line-challenged, Bears.

The second round: The Falcons would welcome a rematch with the Eagles but this time in the Georgia Dome and possibly with Michael Vick. The Giants would renew NFC East rivalries with the Redskins.

NFC Championship: The Redskins would play the NFC championship game on the road in Atlanta against the Falcons. A return to the Super Bowl after an 11-year absence? Who knew the Week 1 game between the Falcons and Steelers would be a potential Super Bowl preview? Hold your breathe Falcons fans, the Unbiased Power Rankings love the chances of a rematch.

Methodology: The Unbiased Power Rankings are exactly that, unbiased. We take into account a team's wins, losses and a strength of schedule component to arrive at a truly unbiased rating. We have no preseason polls, no preset baselines. Only the performance on the field - this season - matters. Emotion is not welcome here. Still interested? Here's the ingredients we use to make this delicious stew of math-based power rankings.

Each team is awarded five points for a win and five points for every game a defeated opponent wins. To measure a loss, the total number of opponent wins is divided by the number of the ranked team's losses.

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[MagnusXXIII]

Unbiased? I am as big a Falcons Fan as they come and I have to say the Giants are playing better than the Falcons right now and should be ranked above us...

It is unbiased because the ranking is formulaic.

You thinking the Giants are better than us is YOUR opinion.

[dmite]

Understood. Let me pose you the question, in your opinion are the Falcons playing better than the Giants right now?

5 turnovers says yes.

[MagnusXXIII]

Understood. Let me pose you the question, in your opinion are the Falcons playing better than the Giants right now?

It is hard to say.

This year is wackey ... there is so much parity out there it just seems to depend week to week.

You are thinking the Giants looked good because their defensive line dominated a one-win team Monday.

I will tell you that I think our offense has more talent, and that our secondary and linebacker corp is potentially better.

[Porkins]

Understood. Let me pose you the question, in your opinion are the Falcons playing better than the Giants right now?

With the exception of 0.9 offensive points per game and 30 seconds of possession per game, we are statistically better in pretty much every category that counts. So yes, we are playing better than the Giants right now.

Falcons

Record: 5-2

Combined Opponents Record: 21-25

Offensive Points Scored/Per Game Avg/Rank: 169/24.1/12

Defensive Points Allowed/Per Game Avg/Rank: 133/19/13

Penalties: 30 for 330 yards

Turnovers: 10 (5 ints/5 fumbles lost)

Avg. Time of Possession: 32:56

Giants

Record: 5-2

Combined Opponents Record: 20-24

Offensive Points Scored/Per Game Avg/Rank: 175/25/8

Defensive Points Allowed/Per Game Avg/Rank: 153/21.9/24

Penalties: 46 for 395 yards

Turnovers: 21 (11 ints/10 fumbles lost)

Avg. Time of Possession: 33:26

[blizzard_falcon]

The Giants were impressive against the Bears, but not so much against the Cowboys. Sure, they hurt Romo and put up a lot of points, but they couldn't put that game away and let Jon Kitna and company almost come back. If either onside kick had gone Dallas's way, they might have wound up winning that game.

On the flip side, we should have been able to put the Bengals away with our big halftime lead, but we didn't and almost let THEM come back.

The Giants are one a 4 game win streak; we had a 4 game win streak going into the Eagles game.

Honestly, right now, I feel like we're very evenly matched. I can't really say the Giants are playing better football than we are right now because they turned the football over five times the other night.

What I CAN say is that they're probably playing better defense at the moment, but we're playing better offense because we're being more careful with the football.

[MagnusXXIII]

[quote name='virginiafalcon' date='27 October 2010 - 02:07 PM' timestamp='1288206479' post='581778

The Giants were impressive against the Bears, but not so much against the Cowboys. Sure, they hurt Romo and put up a lot of points, but they couldn't put that game away and let Jon Kitna and company almost come back. If either onside kick had gone Dallas's way, they might have wound up winning that game.

On the flip side, we should have been able to put the Bengals away with our big halftime lead, but we didn't and almost let THEM come back.

The Giants are one a 4 game win streak; we had a 4 game win streak going into the Eagles game.

Honestly, right now, I feel like we're very evenly matched. I can't really say the Giants are playing better football than we are right now because they turned the football over five times the other night.

What I CAN say is that they're probably playing better defense at the moment, but we're playing better offense because we're being more careful with the football.

We are playing better offense because we have a better offense.

The Giants have an above average offense, a very good coach, and an great pass rush.

I think we are better but we are too inconsistent to be dominant right now.

[Dem Birds]

Unbiased? I am as big a Falcons Fan as they come and I have to say the Giants are playing better than the Falcons right now and should be ranked above us...

Yeah, the way the beat the 1-5 Cowboys by 7 points with Jon Kitna at QB was AWWWWESOME.

[kjc34]

i am kinda stunned, a logic based approach??? hmm, i like it!!