Examining Matt Ryan's passes

[Sun Tzu 7]

Didn't see this posted

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http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/14528/examining-matt-ryans-passes

I’ve been getting lots of notes in the mailbag from readers wondering why the Falcons don’t open up their offense and let Matt Ryan throw downfield more.

Those are questions only coach Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey can answer. However, I turned to our weekly numbers package from ESPN Stats & Information and found some interesting stuff on the Atlanta passing game.

First off, I think it’s fair to say the perception that the Falcons don’t throw downfield very much is actually reality. Ryan has attempted 12 passes of 21 yards or longer. I can’t find another quarterback who has started all of his team’s games who has attempted fewer passes in that category. For comparison, Washington’s Donovan McNabb leads the league with 30 such attempts, New Orleans’ Drew Brees has 26 and Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman has 25.

Let’s look a little closer at Ryan’s numbers in this category. He has completed just three of those 12 passes (that’s 25 percent), but two of them have gone for touchdowns. That should tell you something right there because that’s good enough to give Ryan a 98.6 passer rating in those situations.

Now, let’s move to another category provided by the stat people that I think is extremely interesting. They also track pass attempts that range from 11 to 20 yards and that’s where Ryan is at his best.

He ranks third in the league with a 112.1 passer rating on those passes. He’s completed 32 of 56 attempts for 598 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. By the way, Freeman ranks second in the league in this category with a 120.1 passer rating.

Now, let’s move to the final category on passing and distance. That’s pass attempts of 10 yards or fewer. This is where Ryan has thrown the bulk of his passes, but the results haven’t been all that great. Ryan has completed 97 of 151 attempts in this category. That’s a respectable 64.2 percent and those passes have added up to 725 yards. In this situation, Ryan has four touchdowns and four interceptions. Perhaps most important of all, his passer rating is 73.4. That ranks No. 32 in the league.

[BirdWeisErrr_2]

So we're not using Ryan properly. Who'd a thunk it?

[phattywankenobi]

As interesting as the breakdown is I believe most people already had some idea of this. What would have been more interesting is to interview the coaches or players as to why this is happening.

[raysnill1]

that's why I defend our linemen. we aren't doing anything to stretch the field and put them in favorable match-ups. if we don't take shots downfield & make them safeties play back we really can't expect Turner to go off like he did in 2008

[FalconFanSince1970]

Now all we need is for Tandy to apply her number of seconds to throw analysis to this data and maybe, just maybe, ESPN, Yas and the bulk of the message boarders will see the real problem.

It ain't Ryan. It ain't Mularkey. It's the pass protection. Mostly the Oline, but the TEs and RBs also.

Mularkey discussed the deep ball issue a couple years ago. He gave a good answer. To paraphrase it was something like there are 1-3 deep routes on nearly all of our pass plays. Rise folks.

[Sun Tzu 7]

To be honest I'm not sure what to make of the offense anymore other than it hasn't seemed to work.

I'm sure the o-line has something to do with it but I'm starting to worry if Ryan has started to revert and instead of looking downfield he's starting to look for the checkdowns.

On another note I wonder if Dan Reeves would come on as an offensive consultant or something. Yes it's gotten that bad for me because I remember we at least threw downfield and used play action passes in that offense.

[slamee101]

First off, I think it’s fair to say the perception that the Falcons don’t throw downfield very much is actually reality. Ryan has attempted 12 passes of 21 yards or longer. I can’t find another quarterback who has started all of his team’s games who has attempted fewer passes in that category. For comparison, Washington’s Donovan McNabb leads the league with 30 such attempts, New Orleans’ Drew Brees has 26 and Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman has 25.

Terrible!

I know as fans we don't know half as much as we seem to think we do but even Stevie Wonder can see this is an issue. Like I said though, we give Mularkey a ton of grief but is this just the way Smitty wants the game called?

I think back to 2008 and this wasn't such an issue. Why is it now? Why have we ceased to try and stretch the field?

[Zenduke]

I wonder how many of his throws 10 yards and less were due to him checking down and throwing to keep from getting drilled. The offensive line doesn't give him consistantly safe pockets to throw from.

[Atl/0]

Now all we need is for Tandy to apply her number of seconds to throw analysis to this data and maybe, just maybe, ESPN, Yas and the bulk of the message boarders will see the real problem.

It ain't Ryan. It ain't Mularkey. It's the pass protection. Mostly the Oline, but the TEs and RBs also.

Mularkey discussed the deep ball issue a couple years ago. He gave a good answer. To paraphrase it was something like there are 1-3 deep routes on nearly all of our pass plays. Rise folks.

If it's really the pass protection for our lack of down field passes then I would think that Bloggers that actually get paid to do what they do would have written about it. It's deeper than the OL but people don't want to get into that.

[SiViK_OuTkAsT™]

It's because we normally run on first and second for short or nothing. Then, MM calls for a pass in an obvious passing situation which puts pressure on MR and combine that with the bad OL blocking and BAM....bad numbers.....who would have guessed it.

[Guest Gritz]

Why is it now? Why have we ceased to try and stretch the field?

I think you have asked the ultimate key question in this whole Falcons-Deep Passes problem.

It's like the "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?" question.

Does Mularkey not call the deep pass often because we don't have the personnel to have success with those plays or do we not go out and recruit that type of personnel (Maclins, DeSean Jacksons, Dexter McClusters) because we don't want to feature that in our offense?

Did we go hard after Boldin?

I'm somewhat confused about our offense at this point.

It seems like with each successive year under Mularkey we play a shorter and shorter game on offense.

The last few games the defenses we are playing are crowding the line so much it looks like they could have been in our huddle.

They better figure it out. I can't.

[SiViK_OuTkAsT™]

We don't have many situations to throw downfield. We are always with our back to the wall in third down because the running game has been stuffed most of the time.

[since68andcounting]

I wonder how many of his throws 10 yards and less were due to him checking down and throwing to keep from getting drilled. The offensive line doesn't give him consistantly safe pockets to throw from.

I would say that a good 10-20% of those incomplete short throws were just about getting rid of the ball

[Atl/0]

I think you have asked the ultimate key question in this whole Falcons-Deep Passes problem.

It's like the "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?" question.

Does Mularkey not call the deep pass often because we don't have the personnel to have success with those plays or do we not go out and recruit that type of personnel (Maclins, DeSean Jacksons, Dexter McClusters) because we don't want to feature that in our offense?

Did we go hard after Boldin?

I'm somewhat confused about our offense at this point.

It seems like with each successive year under Mularkey we play a shorter and shorter game on offense.

The last few games the defenses we are playing are crowding the line so much it looks like they could have been in our huddle.

They better figure it out. I can't.

Your right I'm confused as well. We don't go after deep threats like djax, or big physical recievers that can make plays down field like Boldin or Marshall, but we will put interest in Kerry Meier . What are we doing?

[Psychic Gibbon]

There are simple ways to fix this problem. For one, you can start the game with a play action pass, and no, not that bootleg we see every game. This is a run heavy team, teams are expecting the run, so a play action will work right away anyway. Screen passes will help a great deal. Not being predictable with formations... bunch up means run, spread out means pass... how about running it with the receivers spreading out the defense or passing it with that power I-formation.

If your formations and play calls are not predictable then the offense can thrive and the O-line won't have so much pressure on it. We don't have the best O-line around but if defenses aren't dialing up on the run every time it is called or throwing a blitz every time we pass then it won't be getting destroyed every game.

And, above all, be more aggressive. I keep telling everyone that Ryan does his best with the intermediate passing game. Just watch him when he goes no huddle, he almost always passes into the intermediate range. We have the personnel to stretch the field and gain a good amount of yards through the passing game while still being a run heavy team. You just need creativity and to use your personnel intelligently.

[raysnill1]

We don't have many situations to throw downfield. We are always with our back to the wall in third down because the running game has been stuffed most of the time.

here are 2 instances:

New Orleans, overtime. 1st & 10. Saints have 9 men in the box. we have Roddy wide right, Harry wide left, Ovie & Turner in the backfield. obvious run down, obvious run formation. play action, Ryan had day to throw to Harry, overthrew him by about a yard.

Cleveland, 3rd quarter. 1st & 10. Browns have 8 men in the box. we got Harry wide right, Roddy wide left, TG lined up on Baker & Peele behind TG. Snelling the lone runner in the backfield. obvious run down, obvious run formation. play action, Ryan had plenty of time to throw ... SIX!

[lee sunset]

It's because we normally run on first and second for short or nothing. Then, MM calls for a pass in an obvious passing situation which puts pressure on MR and combine that with the bad OL blocking and BAM....bad numbers.....who would have guessed it.

Other teams figured out what to do towards Ryan and Mularkey's offense at the end of 2008 and it reared its ugly head against Arizona in the playoffs when they were crowding the line and jumping offsides (and not being called for it). Just like San Fran this year.

[Falcons_own_nfc_south]

The reason we are throwing under 10 yards because we RUN, RUN and pass.

1st Down Run 1 yds

2nd down run 2 yds

3rd down pass needs to cover 7 yds.

There you go.

[Theyhateme : )]

We've only played one division game, it's about to get tough.

[FalconFanSince1970]

The reason we are throwing under 10 yards because we RUN, RUN and pass.1st Down Run 1 yds2nd down run 2 yds3rd down pass needs to cover 7 yds.There you go.

Sorry to single you out bro but this is a prime example of the cluelessness runnin rampant on this board. I don't believe you guys are watching close enough. That run, run pass theory is bogus.

We threw the ball on 3 of our first 5 (60%) first down plays against PHI and ended up throwing on 19 of our 29 first downs (66%).

The notion that we don't have deep pass plays is a myth too. Like Mularkey said in an interview a couple years ago there are deep routes on most of our pass plays. Mularkey's offense is similar to Dan Reeves'. Ole school deep routes. QB has to get time, make the read and deliver a good ball. The receiver has to catch it.

The theory that we don't use play action is just flat out, well, incorrect.

Rise folks.

[DirtyBirdSupabowl]

1st and 2nd down is when most qbs like to take a shot down the field but its hard to do that when we are running on those downs which in turn comes back to the play calling.

[Falcons_own_nfc_south]

Sorry to single you out bro but this is a prime example of the cluelessness runnin rampant on this board. I don't believe you guys are watching close enough. That run, run pass theory is bogus.

We threw the ball on 3 of our first 5 (60%) first down plays against PHI and ended up throwing on 19 of our 29 first downs (66%).

The notion that we don't have deep pass plays is a myth too. Like Mularkey said in an interview a couple years ago there are deep routes on most of our pass plays. Mularkey's offense is similar to Dan Reeves'. Ole school deep routes. QB has to get time, make the read and deliver a good ball. The receiver has to catch it.

The theory that we don't use play action is just flat out, well, incorrect.

Rise folks.

Sorry bro. I didn't know that this thread was about only philly game.

[Falcons_own_nfc_south]

30 minutes ago - QB Matt Ryan said Atlanta needs more big plays in the passing game. The Falcons rank 17th in the NFL with 15 plays of 20 yards or more. "We've taken our shots, we just need to capitalize on those better," Ryan said

[Joremarid]

First off, I think it’s fair to say the perception that the Falcons don’t throw downfield very much is actually reality. Ryan has attempted 12 passes of 21 yards or longer. I can’t find another quarterback who has started all of his team’s games who has attempted fewer passes in that category. For comparison, Washington’s Donovan McNabb leads the league with 30 such attempts, New Orleans’ Drew Brees has 26 and Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman has 25.

Terrible!

I know as fans we don't know half as much as we seem to think we do but even Stevie Wonder can see this is an issue. Like I said though, we give Mularkey a ton of grief but is this just the way Smitty wants the game called?

I think back to 2008 and this wasn't such an issue. Why is it now? Why have we ceased to try and stretch the field?

in 2008 matt ryan was the 25th or so most sacked qb in the league.

in 2010 he is the 7th most sacked.

it's oline folks. they can't pass protect. if they aren't missing assignments they are just getting beat one on one by the defender.

[Finally]

Sorry to single you out bro but this is a prime example of the cluelessness runnin rampant on this board. I don't believe you guys are watching close enough. That run, run pass theory is bogus.

We threw the ball on 3 of our first 5 (60%) first down plays against PHI and ended up throwing on 19 of our 29 first downs (66%).

The notion that we don't have deep pass plays is a myth too. Like Mularkey said in an interview a couple years ago there are deep routes on most of our pass plays. Mularkey's offense is similar to Dan Reeves'. Ole school deep routes. QB has to get time, make the read and deliver a good ball. The receiver has to catch it.

The theory that we don't use play action is just flat out, well, incorrect.

Rise folks.

Just out of curiousity. How many first down passing plays did we do before we were already down 21-0 and hadn't answered yet?

I definitely think we need an upgrade on our Oline but you know as well as I do if we did a better job of keeping defenses guessing it was ease the pressure.

Where is the hurry-up no-huddle? Where is the no-huddle most of time? Why do we trust Matt less now than in his rookie year? I could understand if he had failed miserably but the less we trust him the worse we seem to do.

We are getting in our own way. I know this offense is better than this and I know we could do more to make our Oline look better.