Jump to content

Falcons offense finding success while living on the edge


Recommended Posts

Interesting Peyton and I agree. I know we are a "ball control O" but we definitly need to get better on 1st/2nd thats all there is to it... but we are 2-1 and I'm ******* excited

Off topic but just read this and thought it was crazy...

Since 2006, there have been 278 runs for 40 yards or more in the NFL. The Redskins have accounted for just ONE of those

Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow. Seriously? That's what you want to take out of what I said.

Being objective is one thing. Spinning objectivity is another.

I don't understand your objection. You said the offense is working as designed. The offense is producing an absurd number of 3rd and longs, and the Falcons just happen to be converting a lot of them. I don't think that is exactly what the Falcons are looking for, but I am sure they are glad they are converting all those 3rd and longs.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just one more thing on the concept of putting the team into 3rd and short. 3rd and short normally refers to plays that are 3rd and 4 or less.

The Falcons had 18 3rd down conversion attempts on Sunday, and only 5 of the 18 were 3rd and short.

My link

3rd and long

Definition: A situation in which a team finds themselves forced to run a third-down play in which they need to gain considerable yardage to get the first down.

Examples:

Third-and-long is usually considered anything over six or seven yards.

Anything under that six or seven yard mark hinders blitzing options.

Having players like Gonzo and Roddy, both with GREAT hands, makes a huge difference. Having a QB like Ryan who is exceptionally accurate (especially on short passes) is both useful and effective.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The counter to your argument is that the Falcons want a ball control offense which is exactly what they have now. Ball control offenses don't worry about or have that many big plays. So I would say the offense is working as designed. It's a slow methodical march down the field most of the times, which eats of clock. This is what the Falcons want to do. I don't know if they worry about big plays all time. I doubt it.

Thank you. Time of possession plays and short chunks of yards has been the key. Quick scoring has not been the falcons style.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with you. I don't think people realize how many 3rd and longs the Falcons converted on Sunday though. They had 9 conversions:

3rd and 7

3rd and 7

3rd and 9

3rd and 1

3rd and 4

3rd and 8

3rd and 10

3rd and 6

3rd and 1

I just don't really know what your chances of doing that game in and game out are.

What you have there is 3rd and less than 6 and 3rd and 8-10. In his short career - here are Ryans numbers on those.

3rd and <6 = 68 of 113 for 60.2% 634 yards 7 TD, 3 INT QB Rating of 85.2

3rd and 8-10 yds = 56 of 91 for 61.5% 823 yards 4 TD, 2 INT QB Rating of 96.5

I think a telling stat is where we stand on punts though - we are tied for 10th place in lowest number of punts with 13 for the year, 11 in regulation and 2 in OT. Over half of those came in the first game against the Steelers. We punted 7 times in that game.

In regulation -we are tied for 5th in the league lowest punts.

Link to post
Share on other sites
October 2010 - 09:18 PM' timestamp='1285967883' post='5764737']

What you have there is 3rd and less than 6 and 3rd and 8-10. In his short career - here are Ryans numbers on those.

3rd and <6 = 68 of 113 for 60.2% 634 yards 7 TD, 3 INT QB Rating of 85.2

3rd and 8-10 yds = 56 of 91 for 61.5% 823 yards 4 TD, 2 INT QB Rating of 96.5

Nice post Tandy. It's always good to get a numbers perspective. I think it's fair to say that those numbers will increase as he matures behind center.

Being fundamentally sound is what I love most about Smith, his staff and Ryan. They are as far away from 'Living on the Edge' as you can get.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The one thing about stats is that it doesn't represent the heart of a team and how bad they want to win. This team is building a confidence each week on both sides of the ball that may finally show us the consistency that Smitty has been trying to get from them for the last two years. They're a young team that is learning how to win. No risk, no reward. We have to keep playing to beat our opponents down early. Just think, not all of these teams are going to have the high-powered passing game like New Orleans. We score on em early and keep scoring on em until the clock runs out...game over baby!

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think maybe some people have misunderstood this thread. It wasn't meant as a criticism of the team or the coaches. It was just a statistical analysis of what has happened so far and my own conclusion that, if the team is going to sustain their offensive success, they will probably need another WR to step up and they will also need some big plays.

Others may agree or they may disagree, but either way I'm not trying to criticize the team or the coaches.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think maybe some people have misunderstood this thread. It wasn't meant as a criticism of the team or the coaches. It was just a statistical analysis of what has happened so far and my own conclusion that, if the team is going to sustain their offensive success, they will probably need another WR to step up and they will also need some big plays.

Others may agree or they may disagree, but either way I'm not trying to criticize the team or the coaches.

I think you have a fair point regarding teams not wanting to face a high number of third downs. No team goes into the season saying they want to face as many third downs as possible. That is not a team goal.

I do think this is a fair counter argument though. Teams do not go into the season with any goals for 3rd downs other than converting them at a high rate. If you told an OC they were going to see 20 third downs per game, the OC would be happy his offense has that much possession. It's also fair to say this offense is not scared of facing third downs considering their propensity of getting in those situations and having success.

I am going to make a prediction. SF will be going for broke on defense, and we are going to hit them with big plays. Teams that feel they can matchup are going to be more worried about giving up the big play, so the defense will compensate with deeper coverage giving us more opportunity underneath. Teams that can't match up are going to compensate by taking more risks, cheating up on coverage, and over committing to stopping the run and trying to get turnovers. Thats why bad teams get beat deep so often.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with you. I don't think people realize how many 3rd and longs the Falcons converted on Sunday though. They had 9 conversions:

3rd and 7

3rd and 7

3rd and 9

3rd and 1

3rd and 4

3rd and 8

3rd and 10

3rd and 6

3rd and 1

I just don't really know what your chances of doing that game in and game out are.

Man that alone tells me how much heart and precision our O played with against the Saints. Its certainly living on the edge but if there's anything this team has shown so far is that 3rd down is no big deal. It shows great poise, confidence and swagger.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sorry Peyton. Seriously.

I took the approach that you were saying we were lucky to be productive which wasn't fair on my part.

My defense mechanism kicks in and I always feel the need to defend the things I care about. I'm loyal to a fault.

I've been watching this team since the early seventies and have always been beyond passionate for this team. This is by far the best roster, top to bottom, I have ever seen enter a season. I'm also delighted with our current HC and his staff. We have an owner with resources willing to spend and a GM known for finding talent. If we ever had a chance to be successful......that time is now.

I don't think we're lucky. I think we're good. I think we're really good.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel like we very often waste first down. We run up the middle, and everyone knows we're going to run up the middle. We might as well tell the defense who we're handing it too and exactly which gap they're going in. And then we get somewhere between 0 and 1 yard.

Somebody will say this is part of the plan because it wears the defense down. But no. You can still run the ball a lot and wear the defense down, without sacrificing 75% of your first downs. You can run on 2nd and 3rd (and 4th). You can also call different kinds of running plays on 1st down, so there's at least some element of surprise. You can look at the defense, and then decide at the LOS to pass the ball even though it is first down. You can still be run heavy and wear the other team down, while being a little unpredictable on 1st down.

In other words, let's actually try our best to gain yards on 1st down (as if it were actually one of the downs we have to work with, imagine that).

Whew, that turned into a rant. But in spite of this annoyance, our boys are playing lights out and kicking butt. Go Falcons!

Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel like we very often waste first down. We run up the middle, and everyone knows we're going to run up the middle. We might as well tell the defense who we're handing it too and exactly which gap they're going in. And then we get somewhere between 0 and 1 yard.

Somebody will say this is part of the plan because it wears the defense down. But no. You can still run the ball a lot and wear the defense down, without sacrificing 75% of your first downs. You can run on 2nd and 3rd (and 4th). You can also call different kinds of running plays on 1st down, so there's at least some element of surprise. You can look at the defense, and then decide at the LOS to pass the ball even though it is first down. You can still be run heavy and wear the other team down, while being a little unpredictable on 1st down.

In other words, let's actually try our best to gain yards on 1st down (as if it were actually one of the downs we have to work with, imagine that).

Whew, that turned into a rant. But in spite of this annoyance, our boys are playing lights out and kicking butt. Go Falcons!

That's part of the plan because it wears the defense down. he he he.

I know we went for all the marbles in OT on first down.

But...I get your point. I'd like to see the breakdown. I would assume it's over 65% myself. It would be nice to know what our first down avg. yards was on passing and running.

We'll see if we use that to our advantage in the future by taking more first down gambles.

Link to post
Share on other sites

We must strech the field way more then we do...we won't keep converting 3rd much longer if we alway have 11 defenders within 12 yards of the line of scrimage.

The good thing about these drives is that they are long and sustained which keeps the Defense on the field and wears them out....by the fourth quarter the opposing D in ragged and easier to push off the line.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...