Turner is gonna have a bad game next week

[donb036]

Turner has been much better when he plays with us, against 4-3 defense then 3-4 defenses.

Att Yds Y/A TD

DET: 4-3 22 220 10.0 2

TAM: 4-3 14 42 3.0 0

KAN: 3-4 23 104 4.5 3

CAR: 4-3 18 56 3.1 0

GNB: 3-4 26 121 4.7 1

CHI: 3-4 25 54 2.2 0

PHI: 4-3 17 58 3.4 0

OAK: 4-3 30 139 4.6 0

NOR: 4-3 27 96 3.6 1

DEN: 3-4 25 81 3.2 2

CAR: 4-3 24 117 4.9 4

SDG: 3-4 31 120 3.9 0

NOR: 4-3 18 61 3.4 1

TAM: 4-3 32 152 4.8 1

MIN: 4-3 19 70 3.7 1

STL: 4-3 25 208 8.3 1

2009:

MIA: 3-4 22 65 3.0 0

CAR: 4-3 28 105 3.8 1

NWE: 3-4 15 56 3.7 0

SFO: 3-4 22 97 4.4 3

DAL: 3-4 13 30 2.3 1

NOR: 4-3 18 50 2.8 1

WAS: 4-3 20 151 7.6 1

CAR: 4-3 18 166 9.2 2

TAM: 4-3 Not counting last two games, left because of injury

NYJ: 3-4 ^^ ^^

2010:

PIT: 3-4 19 42 2.2 0

3-4: 3.54 Y/A

4-3: 5.08 Y/A

4-3: 16 TDs

3-4: 9 TDs

4-3: 12 games with 100 yards or 1 TD

3-4: 6 games with 100 yards or 1 TD

Edited September 15, 2010 by donb036

[Ga_spider]

I'm predicting over a 100 rushing yards and two TDs.

[AtlantaFalconPokerPro]

140-150 in rushing, and 2 TD's. Turner is a beast against 4-3's, not so much against 3-4's.

[Ga_spider]

And C. Owens with a pick 6.

[stripedss]

One trick is useless

[donb036]

140-150 in rushing, and 2 TD's. Turner is a beast against 4-3's, not so much against 3-4's.

that was the whole point of the research....turner averages a yard and a half more against 4-3 then 3-4. anyone know a reason why? because there is less LB?

[Dem Birds]

I think he's going to have a good game, personally. Cardinals aren't as good as the Steelers. Have a bad game. You crazy.

[Tandy]

Because our OL gets manhandled by those big 3-4 DT and can't get push to open a lane.

[dyoshot]

Isn't AZ a 3-4?

[dmite]

probably the huge DTs that 3-4 defenses usually have and the fast LBs able to hit the gaps.

[falconfiend82]

The Falcons always seem to struggle against 3-4 defenses. I'm not sure if it's more of a scheme issue or personnel. Hopefully we can solve the problem against Arizona.

[atlbravesfalcs7]

yeah, he might as well not even show up to the stadium, because although the game is still 4 days away hes going to have a bad game against the almighty cardinal defense.

stop being so negative.

[kane#7]

He is in my fantasy so i hope so

[donb036]

yeah, he might as well not even show up to the stadium, because although the game is still 4 days away hes going to have a bad game against the almighty cardinal defense.

stop being so negative.

hey, man. you don't even know me, and your getting really defensive over a person you have never met. I am a huge falcon fan, I just decided to do this research because I found it interesting and I remember reading a article last year about it. Yes, I do think we will beat the Cardinals, we are a much better team. not only that though, 3.5(or whatever it was) Y/A against 3-4 defenses is still really good. I was just pointing out that turner is good against 3-4, and incredible against 4-3

[nativefalcon]

140-150 in rushing, and 2 TD's. Turner is a beast against 4-3's, not so much against 3-4's.

To me though its not turner that the problem its the guy calling the plays a la Mularkey, We should throw more and do more screen passes against 3-4 teams. And not keep doing the run run run into the wall type plays especially against 3-4 teams. What I hate about Mularkey he doesn't adjust his play calling to what kind of team and defense we're playing. And to use Norwood and turner in a lot of the screen pass type situations. What works against a 4-3 team doesn't work at times against a 3-4 team.

[maxatlanta]

Looking at those stats, he played 16 games vs 4-3, 10 games vs 3-4. His TDs are 16 vs 4-3, 9 vs 3-4 (basically the same when taking into account how many times he faced each). Even looking game to game, it seems like he has good and bad days vs BOTH schemes. I think it has more to do with the quality of the defense. Going for over 200 yards and 10ypc vs the Lions may skew the numbers some. So yes, he has been better against the 4-3, but possibly because of the overall quality of the opponent more than the schemes themselves.

[Lucky_Tom]

Ok. You do realize Chi runs a 4-3 right? That looks to be maybe the worst game he's played as a Falcon so that might be skewing things a bit. With that in mind, I don't see one bad game against a 3-4 in 08, so saying it's simply the 3-4 does not seem axxurate. I would say good 3-4's shut him down while he has good dames against bad 3-4's. I don't know about you, but I would tend to put AZ in the latter category.

[FalconFanSince1970]

that was the whole point of the research....turner averages a yard and a half more against 4-3 then 3-4. anyone know a reason why? because there is less LB?

It's actually worse than you think. KC, GB, CHI and DEN all played 4 man fronts in 2008.

ARI, by the way, played some 3 man fronts against us in the 2009 playoff game and shut Turner down.

Recalculate the stats based on this and you will find even more of a disparity.

It ain't Turner, it's our average Oline that gets owned by three man fronts. Check Ryan's sack numbers against 3 man fronts and you will see a similar trend.

By the way we will have to play 6 to 10 3-4 teams to get what we want this season. The Oline better improve. They struggled against three 3-4 teams this preseason and again against PIT last Sunday.

[falconidae]

It's actually worse than you think. KC, GB, CHI and DEN all played 4 man fronts in 2008.

ARI, by the way, played some 3 man fronts against us in the 2009 playoff game and shut Turner down.

Recalculate the stats based on this and you will find even more of a disparity.

It ain't Turner, it's our average Oline that gets owned by three man fronts. Check Ryan's sack numbers against 3 man fronts and you will see a similar trend.

By the way we will have to play 6 to 10 3-4 teams to get what we want this season. The Oline better improve. They struggled against three 3-4 teams this preseason and again against PIT last Sunday.

You'd think with the TEs and fullback we have, we could compensate for the Oline playing 3-4 Ds.

May be time to break out the 3 wide sets, spread out the 3-4s and beat then that way. The 2 wide, 2 back system doesn't seem to work. Like to see White, HD, Jenkins, Gonzo and Turner in and see what happens.

Also think that may be why you see the young Olinemen falcons bringing are all huge- 6'5", 320+ Looks like the next generation of the Oline will be much larger than the current one.

[Tandy]

Ok. You do realize Chi runs a 4-3 right? That looks to be maybe the worst game he's played as a Falcon so that might be skewing things a bit. With that in mind, I don't see one bad game against a 3-4 in 08, so saying it's simply the 3-4 does not seem axxurate. I would say good 3-4's shut him down while he has good dames against bad 3-4's. I don't know about you, but I would tend to put AZ in the latter category.

We didn't play but one 3-4 team in 2008 (San Diego). Every team we played ran a 4-3 at the time.

Kansas, Green Bay and Denver have since changed to a 3-4, but Chicago has never run a 3-4.

[The Birds are the truth]

To me though its not turner that the problem its the guy calling the plays a la Mularkey, We should throw more and do more screen passes against 3-4 teams. And not keep doing the run run run into the wall type plays especially against 3-4 teams. What I hate about Mularkey he doesn't adjust his play calling to what kind of team and defense we're playing. And to use Norwood and turner in a lot of the screen pass type situations. What works against a 4-3 team doesn't work at times against a 3-4 team.

My thoughts exactly. +1 for a great post. MM doesn't adjust his play calling. And alot of the blame falls on Matt Ryan because it.

[since68andcounting]

3-4: 3.54 Y/A

4-3: 5.08 Y/A

4-3: 16 TDs

3-4: 9 TDs

4-3: 12 games with 100 yards or 1 TD

3-4: 6 games with 100 yards or 1 TD

I agree his average is better, but mostly because of a few big games against weak defenses that happen to run 4-3.

The TD stat is misleading. There were 16 games against 4-3 defenses, and only 10 against 3-4. So he's averaging almost exactly ONE TD per game regardless of which defense he plays.

Just another way that stats can be misleading.