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Matt Ryan Predictions


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Guest Gritz

I did the numbers and I have come up with what I think is a very solid projection of what we can expect from Matt Ryan this year.

16 Games - 297-478 (62.1%), 4001 YDS, 8.4 AVG, 31 TD, 13 INT - 99.0 QB Rating

If he does that then we are going to be in possession of a nice silver trophy.

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I know. Not from a run first team, w/only above average receiving corps.

to be fair, we attempted 578 throws last year...even a healthy Micheal Turner isn't going to take more than 100 of those attempts away. all that needs to go up is his completion percentage(which will probably go up) and his yards per attempt(affected by the type of offense we run, but from reports, we're keying in on our deep passing plays). i wouldn't be too surprised to see him in the range of 4000, about 3800 with a steady 60 completion percentage, along with the same TD-INT ratio.

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EXPECT 4000 yards? Really?

Yes. It is very possible. He threw for 3,440 yards in 2008. That's an average of 213 yards per game. He only played in 13 full games last year. He passed for 2901 yards in those 13 yards. That's an average of 223 yards per game. To get to 4,000 yards he would have to average 250 yards per game. That seems like a lot and a big jump up from 223. But here are a couple of reasons why I think that is possible.

The Falcons have already made it known that they intend to limit Michael Turner's carries this year. That means more chances for Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood. Norwood is already hurt a lot and if he gets more touches than that means he be hurt that much more. Outside of the games against the Bills and Bucs to end the season Snelling wasn't that good starting in place of Turner last year.

That means to win games Matt Ryan will have to throw more and in year 3 I think the Falcons will open up the playbook more and take more shots down the field. So I don't think it's expecting to much to think that Ryan could pass for 4,000 yards this year.

When I read the title of your thread I thought you might go in this direction:

ryanpredicts.jpg

My bad.

That's awesome! :lol:

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I hope he doesn't come anywhere near 4,000 yards. I would rather have Turner up in the 1,600 yard category. I want us to jump out early and kill them with the running game. We have 3 capable runningbacks, lets use them. We only have 1 capable WR, and 1 capable TE. Hopefully Harry is 100% then we would have 2 capable WRs. But I'd rather see Ryan in the 3400-3600 range, with Turner around 1600 on about 350 carries, with Norwood and Snelling splitting up another 150 or so carries.

If our receivers can up the notch on YAC this year - Turner can hit 1600+ and Ryan can still hit 3700+. He threw for over 3400 yards his rookie year and our receivers have been in the bottom half of the league for YAC. If they improve there - you'll see his yards go up without having to detour our offense from the power running game.

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If our receivers can up the notch on YAC this year - Turner can hit 1600+ and Ryan can still hit 3700+. He threw for over 3400 yards his rookie year and our receivers have been in the bottom half of the league for YAC. If they improve there - you'll see his yards go up without having to detour our offense from the power running game.

Good post ..especially Jenkins ...

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I think he'll top 3700 for sure. 4000 is definitely possible - but much depends on the running game, the receiver accuracy and the YAC from the receivers this year.

Well Tandy I explained why I fully feel 4,000 is capable. I'm not saying we will turn into the Colts or Saints but I feel we will pass more this year than we have the previous 2 years. It's time for the coaches to turn Ryan loose.

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I think when u consider the fact that Ryan threw for 3400+ yrds as a rookie it seems totally realistic that he can top 4000 in his 3rd yr. If you add that to the probability that Mularky will be opening up the playbook, expanding the no huddle offense, and Smith's effort to keep turner healthy this year, i really think hes closer than most think.

Oh, and I forgot to mention the added possessions that our defense should be giving us this year. The more i think about it the more it seems obvious that our team is really set on building all facets of this team to complement each other, and its about to finally all come to fruition for the first time this season the way that Smith and TD planned.

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Well, while you guys "believe it's possible for Ryan to throw 4000 yards", I will be hoping he doesn't need to throw 4000 yards. Mainly because, with a healthy Michael Turner, he won't need to. If Turner is as healthy as he was back in 08, then he's going to have a huge season again. The Falcons won't need to throw the ball even near as much as they did in 09, and that's a good thing. They can start ramming the ball down the opponents throat again.

Now, is it possible for Ryan to throw for 4000 yards? Absolutely. Especially with the receivers he has. I mean, he's got White, and Gonzo who are always going to be great receivers at this point. Jenkins may not have been there last season, but maybe there was more to that story. And this season, he has Harry Douglas back, who played a huge part in the receiving game when he was on the field in the slot. Not only that, but if Douglas were to over take Jenkins as the #2 receiver, with his speed, we'd have one heck of a receiving trio in White, Gonzo, and HD.

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You must also be predicting that Turner gets hurt early in the season.

You completely skipped over my post explaining why I think Ryan will get to 4,000 yards and it has nothing to do with Turner getting hurt.

Also 4,000 yards is not that many. That's only 250 yards a game. That's only 125 yards a half.

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4000+ yards with a 1300+ yard RB doesn't seem possible. I feel maybe dropping/expecting Matty Ice to throw in the 3700 range 30/14 and Turner with 1200-1300 yards is fantastic, but thats what i realistically see coming out of our team for next year. Maybe #2 does go for 4000 because of our easier schedule but i don't think we can expect it to happen unless we get the playbook more open.

-ROCK CHALK

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4000+ yards with a 1300+ yard RB doesn't seem possible. I feel maybe dropping/expecting Matty Ice to throw in the 3700 range 30/14 and Turner with 1200-1300 yards is fantastic, but thats what i realistically see coming out of our team for next year. Maybe #2 does go for 4000 because of our easier schedule but i don't think we can expect it to happen unless we get the playbook more open.

-ROCK CHALK

4,000 + 1,300 is 5,300 yards. Last year the Falcons were 16th in the NFL in offensive yards at 5,447.

In 2008 the Falcons finished 6th in the NFL in offensive yards at 5,779. So it is possible to have Ryan with 4,000 yards and Turner with 1,300 yards.

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