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Marlins vs. Braves


Falconsfan567
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July 2-4, 2010

Marlins (37-41) vs. Braves (46-33)

After a series win against the Nationals to resume National League play, the Braves continue their homestand with a tough series against the fourth-place Marlins. The Braves will send their best three to the mound against the Marlins' best three in an attempt to hold on to their 1.5 game lead.

The Marlins continue to hover around mediocrity. After winning a series they are unable to hold any momentum and either get swept or lose two out of three in the next series. They were swept three times in June and had 11 wins. The Marlins most recently took two out of three from the Mets in Puerto Rico, which is why they have to take a day off before beginning this series.

Top Hitters:

- Hanley Ramirez: Hanley's power is down this season but he is posting a better BB/K at 0.93. His wOBA is down at .383, which is his lowest since his rookie season. Even so, he's still Hanley and he's dangerous. He's 5-11 with a homer and three RBIs against the Braves this season.

- Dan Uggla: Uggla's numbers remain right in line with his averages. He is posting the second best wOBA of his career so far at .365. Uggla is 2-10 against the Braves this season.

- Jorge Cantu: Cantu's strikeouts are up and he isn't on base as much, posting a .331 wOBA, his worst since becoming a Marlin. His power is still there, however. He is 3-11 with two RBIs against the Braves this season.

7/2 - 7:35 (Peachtree TV)

Josh Johnson (1.83 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 2.25 BB/9, 8.92 K/9, 11.9 SwStr%)

(Career vs. ATL: 12 G, 11 GS, 4-2, 2.74 ERA, 29 BB, 67 K)

vs.

Kris Medlen (3.15 ERA, 3.83 xFIP, 1.57 BB/9, 6.54 K/9, 8.8 SwStr%)

(Career vs. FLA: 8.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 10 K)

Josh Johnson is quietly having a tremendous year. At 26, he is quickly coming into his own as one of the best starters in baseball. He has a K-rate of almost nine while cutting down the walk rate to 2.25. His whiff rate is also very good and home runs have been tough to come by, posting a HR/FB of 4.3%. Johnson has always had a very solid fastball and relies equally on his slider and change. His slider has been worth over ten runs this year while his change has dipped some, but that's three plus pitches he can throw in any situation. Johnson gave up more than one run in his last start for the first time since May 8th, allowing two runs on five hits in eight innings against the Padres. He has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last six starts and has good numbers in his career against the Braves.

Kris Medlen is making his first start since being established as a full-time member of the rotation. He is coming off another solid start, allowing one run on six hits in 6.2 innings against the Tigers. He continued to show great control, walking only one and now has a 1.57 BB/9 on the season. Medlen hasn't been all that great against the Marlins in eight relief appearances.

7/3 - 4:10 (FOX)

Anibal Sanchez (3.18 ERA, 4.50 xFIP, 3.38 BB/9, 6.27 K/9, 8.6 SwStr%)

(Career vs. ATL: 10 GS, 4-5, 4.50 ERA, 27 BB, 39 K)

vs.

Tommy Hanson (4.50 ERA, 4.11 xFIP, 3.10 BB/9, 9 K/9, 9.6 SwStr%)

(Career vs. FLA: 3 GS, 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 12 BB, 16 K)

Anibal Sanchez took a big step forward in 2008 and 2009 with strikeout totals of 8.71 and 7.43 K/9, but walks were always a problem, posting a BB/9 of 4.70 and 4.81. That has always prevented him from having a decent xFIP despite low ERAs. This season he has a career low walk rate but his strikeout totals are the lowest since 2006. He always gives up a lot of hits and homers and maintains a high LOB%. Sanchez allowed one earned run on four hits in six innings against the Padres last time out, walking four and striking out one. The Braves have hit him in the past but they only scored two runs off him earlier this season, though they did walk four times. I expect plenty of baserunners.

Tommy Hanson continues to give up boatloads of singles. He went just 3.2 innings for the second straight start last time out, allowing five earned runs on eight hits. His BABIP is up to .347 with a 69.8 LOB%. Hanson continues to struggle with putting hitters away, seeing his slider decrease in value and almost abandoning his curve. He has pitched well against the Marlins in three starts, allowing two runs on four hits in six innings earlier this season.

7/4 - 5:05 (Fox Sports South)

Ricky Nolasco (4.84 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 1.68 BB/9, 7.17 K/9, 9.4 SwStr%)

(Career vs. ATL: 13 G, 12 GS, 3-5, 4.57 ERA, 21 BB, 56 K)

vs.

Tim Hudson (2.37 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 3.39 BB/9, 4.32 K/9, 6.6 SwStr%, 67.8 GB%)

(Career vs. FLA: 16 GS, 8-2, 2.99 ERA, 31 BB, 78 K)

Like Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco is walking fewer but isn't striking out nearly the same amount and his whiff rate is down. The reason for his lower xFIP is a walk rate of 1.68. He's giving up homers at a rate of 1.77 HR/9 and is giving up a lot more hits and fly balls. The Braves will have to bring the bats to the park against Nolasco and not wait for walks. He gave up three runs on four hits in seven innings against the Mets last time out, not walking any and striking out nine. He only went four innings against the Braves earlier this season, allowing three runs on eight hits.

Tim Hudson was up to the challenge against Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals in his last start, pitching seven shutout innings on five hits and striking out six. Hudson got the ground ball when he needed it and seemed to handle the Nationals with ease. He has done the same against the Marlins in his career. He only went four innings against them earlier this season due to a rain delay, allowing two runs on five hits.

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Great preview +1

Come on Braves, lets get at least 2 of these games. Lets hope Philly and the Muts keep losing.

Thanks!

I love seeing Blanco in the lineup.

Me too. I forgot how good Blanco is at taking walks. He had 74 walks 2 years ago. And he hasn't been striking out which is always good. With his speed all he needs to do is put the ball in play on the ground somewhere and out run it to 1st.

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WOW! The Braves just caught a huge break. They called out Chris Coghlan for not retagging 2nd base on his way back to 1st. Even though he never touched the bag at any point so he would never have had to retag it going back to 1st. And now Hanley Ramirez has just gone deep. So it's only 1-0 Marlins instead of 2-0 Marlins.

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Why are you always so negative? You hardly say anything good about the Braves. It almost seems from most of your posts that you are rooting for the Braves to lose.

Medlen has been great. He's had 1 bad start. Get off his back.

Not only do I get on here almost every night and root for the Braves, I go to about half of the home games and cheer. There's certain players I'm not as high on as others like Hanson.

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And I still don't understand why you don't like Hanson.

I don't get the hype. He doesn't have control in half of his games. He always has high pitch counts and comes out early. His delivery looks like it's going to cause injury and players have already used it to their advantages to steal bases because of how long it takes.

I don't get why so many people like him so much.

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I don't get the hype. He doesn't have control in half of his games. He always has high pitch counts and comes out early. His delivery looks like it's going to cause injury and players have already used it to their advantages to steal bases because of how long it takes.

I don't get why so many people like him so much.

There is a injury concern with EVERY pitcher. I heard a lot of people say John Smoltz had the best deliever in baseball and he had arm problems his whole career.

Yes Hanson has had some control problems at times but he is still just 23 years old. You love JJ but he has control problems at times too. Hanson has actually shown better control than JJ if you look at their career BB/9. Hanson's is 3.18 and JJ's is 3.29. Yes Hanson has hit a lot of batters but it proves he isn't afraid to pitch inside and sometimes hitting batters is the result of pitching inside.

The going deeper into games and keeping pitch count more manageable is something he'll learn as he gets more experience. He'll learn to not give up so many foul balls. Which is why his pitch count gets so high.

And stolen bases? Seriously? Guys ran on Greg Maddux at will and in 4 more years he'll be in Cooperstown.

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There is a injury concern with EVERY pitcher. I heard a lot of people say John Smoltz had the best deliever in baseball and he had arm problems his whole career.

Yes Hanson has had some control problems at times but he is still just 23 years old. You love JJ but he has control problems at times too. Hanson has actually shown better control than JJ if you look at their career BB/9. Hanson's is 3.18 and JJ's is 3.29. Yes Hanson has hit a lot of batters but it proves he isn't afraid to pitch inside and sometimes hitting batters is the result of pitching inside.

The going deeper into games and keeping pitch count more manageable is something he'll learn as he gets more experience. He'll learn to not give up so many foul balls. Which is why his pitch count gets so high.

And stolen bases? Seriously? Guys ran on Greg Maddux at will and in 4 more years he'll be in Cooperstown.

JJ isn't the flashy pitcher, but he'll have more career wins. Hopefully as a Brave.

And Maddux was the king of control, Hanson has been far from.

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And I just want to say this last thing about Hanson. Complaining about his control problems and acting like he won't ever get better at that is like complaing that Matt Ryan hasn't completed enough of his passes and he won't get any better.

I'm not saying Hanson will suck, but he looks like the 4th best pitcher on this roster right now behind everyone but Lowe.

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JJ isn't the flashy pitcher, but he'll have more career wins. Hopefully as a Brave.

And Maddux was the king of control, Hanson has been far from.

Have you ever looked at Maddux's career numbers from his first couple of years in the league? He walked 11 guys in 31 innings in his rookie year. That's a BB/9 of 3.19. In his 1st full major league season he walked 74 batters in 155 2/3 innings. Thats a BB/9 of 4.28. He also gave up 181 hits that year. So he wasn't the king of control early in his career. And they just said on the radio that Tommy Hanson has the 2nd lowest pitches per inning on the team this year. Ahead of Medlen and Hudson.

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Have you ever looked at Maddux's career numbers from his first couple of years in the league? He walked 11 guys in 31 innings in his rookie year. That's a BB/9 of 3.19. In his 1st full major league season he walked 74 batters in 155 2/3 innings. Thats a BB/9 of 4.28. He also gave up 181 hits that year. So he wasn't the king of control early in his career. And they just said on the radio that Tommy Hanson has the 2nd lowest pitches per inning on the team this year. Ahead of Medlen and Hudson.

He's also pulled from the game in fewer innings than anyone, I hope Hanson turns into what people want him to. But I still think Jurrjens will have more of the important category in wins.

Edited by Dharma Initiative
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