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85 Man Roster


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This is going to be a long post, so I hope you bare with me. Basically, I don't like looking at the roster and saying 'this guy's in' or 'this guy's out', so I've attempted to create a sort of expected value of the roster on opening day as I see it today. I've weighted the chances that each guy makes the 53-man roster, goes to the practice squad, or is out of the organization (cut or signed by another team). You may note that the total expected value of the 53-man roster is 52.5. Specifically, there are a total of 5.5 CBs making the team. I believe both Brian Williams and Chevis will make the team rounding out the 53, but if one gets cut or if BW is not fully healed, the last man could come from another postition (#6 WR, #10 DL, #11 OL, maybe even #4 TE). Also, all probabilities are to nearest 1/4. So, 0% may really be a 10% chance. Anyways, here goes:

QB (53%/PS%/Out%)

Matt Ryan - (100/0/0)

Chris Redman - (100/0/0)

JPW - (100,0,0)

Eric Ward - (0/75/25)

Da Future - (0/0/100)

3 QBs on 53

I think it's only a matter of time before Shockley gets cut again, and I'm almost positive Ward makes the PS.

RB/FB (53%/PS%/Out%)

Michael Turner - (100/0/0)

Jerious Norwood - (100/0/0)

Jason Snelling - (100/0/0)

Ovie Mughelli - (100/0/0)

Antone Smith - (0/75/25)

Dmitri Nance - (0/0/100)

4 RBs on 53

I don't know much about Nance, but he seems like camp fodder to me.

WR (53%/PS%/Out%)

Roddy White - (100/0/0)

Michael Jenkins - (100/0/0)

Harry Douglas - (100/0/0)

Kerry Meier - (100/0/0)

Eric Weems - (75/0/25)

Brian Finneran - (75/0/25)

Brandyn Harvey - (0/75/25)

Ryan Wolfe - (0/50/50)

Troy Bergeron - (0/0/100)

Tim Buckley - (0/0/100)

Andy Strickland - (0/0/100)

5 (maybe 6) WRs on 53

I see a lot of competion for the 4-6 WR spot. I think Meier is in, but he's not guaranteed. I also think Harvey and/or Wolfe could push Weems/Finneran for a spot, but Weems was solid in the return game and people have been counting out Finn for years and he keeps showing up and earning a spot.

TE (53%/PS%/Out%)

Tony Gonzalez - (100/0/0)

Justin Peelle - (100/0/0)

Keith Zinger - (50/0/50)

Colin Peek - (25/50/25)

Michael Palmer - (25/50/25)

3 TEs on 53

I like both of the TEs we signed. I'm not sure which one the club likes better. I think either one has a decent shot at taking the #3 spot, but I'm not ready to unseat the incumbent just yet.

OT (53%/PS%/Out%)

Sam Baker - (100/0/0)

Tyson Clabo - (100/0/0)

Garrett Reynolds - (100/0/0)

Will Svitek - (100/0/0)

4 OTs on 53

I've seen some say Svitek should/will be cut. These posts quickly are followed by someone noting that he is the only other LT on the roster. I fall in with the latter crowd and think all four OTs on the roster make the 53.

OG (53%/PS%/Out%)

Justin Blalock - (100/0/0)

Harvey Dahl - (100/0/0)

Mike Johnson - (100/0/0)

Quinn Ojinnaka - (50/0/50)

Jose Valdez - (50/50/0)

Rob Bruggerman - (0/25/75)

Blake Schlueter - (0/25/75)

4 OGs on 53

I like Valdez' chances to unseat Ojinnaka, but Quinn has the experience. I also think that Mike Johnson has a better than decent shot at starting LG at some point this year.

C (53%/PS%/Out%)

Todd McClure - (100/0/0)

Joe Hawley - (100/0/0)

Brett Romberg - (0/0/100)

2 Cs on 53

I think Romberg's days are numbered. I've also heard that Hawley can play LS. If that's true, there's a slight possibility of freeing up another roster spot for another WR/OL/DL.

Defense/ST will follow in another post as this one is really long.

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DE (53%/PS%/Out%)

John Abraham - (100/0/0)

Kroy Biermann - (100/0/0)

Lawrence Sidbury - (100/0/0)

Chauncey Davis - (100/0/0)

Emmanuel Stephens - (0/50/50)

Rajon Henley - (0/50/50)

4 DEs on 53

If JA98 sticks, he becomes the 5th DE, but it looks like he may primarily be at DT this year. Again, I don't know much about Stephens or Henley, but I think we will have a DE on the PS.

DT (53%/PS%/Out%)

Jonathan Babineaux - (100/0/0)

Peria Jerry - (100/0/0)

Corey Peters - (100/0/0)

Jamaal Anderson - (75/0/25)

Thomas Johnson - (75/0/25)

Vance Walker - (50/25/25)

Trey Lewis - (0/0/100)

Dan Klecko - (0/0/100)

Trey Bryant - (0/0/100)

5 DTs on 53

Rounding out the DT squad is going to be tough. I think JA98 hangs around one more year, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's out if he doesn't show some immediate and pronounced improvement while playing more DT this year. Johnson seemed to be on love-hate terms with Smitty last year. As such, I wouldn't be surprised if he was let go or if he was starting week 1 if Jerry can't go or Babs is suspended. The coaches seem to like Walker, so I think he sticks, but he may just be the odd man out. I think we've seen the last of Trey Lewis unless he shows that he is finally over his injury, and I think the other guys are just bodies.

LB (53%/PS%/Out%)

Curtis Lofton - (100/0/0)

Mike Peterson - (100/0/0)

Stephen Nicholas - (100/0/0)

Sean Weatherspoon - (100/0/0)

Coy Wire - (75/0/25)

Spencer Adkins - (75/0/25)

Robert James - (0/75/25)

Bear Woods - (0/50/50)

Weston James - (0/0/100)

6 LBs on 53

There are a lot of LBs on the roster that I like. Just maybe more than we have spots for. I like Wire and Adkins for ST and spot duty and I think they both make it. I know Bear Woods has a bit of a following on these boards, so I've given him a shot at making thea team. I've never been a huge James fan, but he'll get a chance to earn his way on for sure. My major question is who fills in at MLB in an emergency? Peterson, maybe?

CB (53%/PS%/Out%)

Dunta Robinson - (100/0/0)

Chris Owens - (100/0/0)

Brent Grimes - (100/0/0)

Dominique Franks - (100/0/0)

Brian Williams - (75/0/25)

Chevis Jackson - (75/0/25)

Dominique Daniels - (0/0/100)

5 or 6 CBs on 53

I think both BW and Chevis make the team, but BW needs to show that he has recovered from the injury, and Chevis needs to show that he is more like the player he was as a rookie than the disappointment he was last year. If we go with 5 CBs, I think most likely we will add a 6th WR.

S (53%/PS%/Out%)

Thomas DeCoud - (100/0/0)

Erik Coleman - (100/0/0)

William Moore - (100/0/0)

Matt Giordano - (50/0/50)

Shann Schillinger - (50/50/0)

Rafael Bush - (0/25/75)

Gabe Derricks - (0/0/100)

4 Ss on 53

I see a good competition for the 4th S spot. I would think Giordano is the front-runner at this point, but they drafted Shillinger for a reason. It probably comes down to who is better suited for ST as hopefully neither of these guys see much time as a safety.

K (53%/PS%/Out%)

Matt Bryant - (50/0/50)

Garret Lindholm - (50/0/50)

Steve Hauschka - (0/0/100)

1 K on 53

I like Bryant, and he's had a pretty crappy couple of years, but if Lindholm looks like an NFL kicker, he's my pick. If he doesn't beat out Bryant, and don't see him making it to our PS although I think we try. Hauschka is a major contingency plan. As in, if all four of Bryant's and Lindholm's legs fall off during camp type of contingency.

P (53%/PS%/Out%)

Michael Koenen - (100/0/0)

1 P on 53

Next.

LS (53%/PS%/Out%)

Joe Zalenka (50/0/50)

Justin Drescher (50/0/50)

1 LS on 53

What do I know about long snapper? One of these guys is a vet (Zalenka), one is a rookie. The best guy will make the team and we're not putting a long snapper on the PS. As noted above, Hawley could play long snapper if we were desperate for another roster spot, but that's unlikely.

Thoughts, words, and feelings are welcome. Thanks!

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lol so I don't get it...I didn't go through the whole thing but help me out here, even if someone has 100% they aren't guaranteed? because you said you don't think Meier is guaranteed but he has the same percentage as White

I said I rounded to nearest 1/4. So 100 could be 90% or something. The order is my best guess at the likelihood of someone making the team (i.e. Roddy on top and Meier number 4).

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after looking over it with that extra information I pretty much agree with everything except...even though Weems brings in that extra dimension over Finn being a PR/KR, I think the abundance of KR/PR we brought in, and the fact we have 2 people who were starting over Weems the beginning of the past two years in that department coming back, that Weems value would go below Finn, with the same 75% rating. pretty cool chart/rating system though.

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after looking over it with that extra information I pretty much agree with everything except...even though Weems brings in that extra dimension over Finn being a PR/KR, I think the abundance of KR/PR we brought in, and the fact we have 2 people who were starting over Weems the beginning of the past two years in that department coming back, that Weems value would go below Finn, with the same 75% rating. pretty cool chart/rating system though.

Thanks. I can't disagree about Weems/Finn. I don't think we're going to see Norwood returning anymore kicks (stay healthy PLEASE!!!), but HD could resume his role, and I think that's a big part of why we drafted Franks. Plus, if Weems is gone that means no more reverses! Yipee!

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can't say i agree with you on DT and WR, how Klecko is a 100% no chance I can't understand due to his versatility, and i would argue Vance Walker has more upside the TJ, different types of DTs.

Zinger has got to be gone, surely?

Harvey is turning heads, i would say he has a shot to make the team/ps, not get cut

But overall i would say it is a fair evaluation, and appreciate the effort!

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Overall A real good assessment. However just a couple of comments.

Smith has Historically carried 5DEs and 4DTs and he said "Anderson will start at DE in the base defense and only be used at DT in a substitution package." Yet I notice you move Anderson to DT permanently. And yes I understand that Smith's comment does not insure Anderson a spot.

Klecko, I agree that he will not make the defensive line but at mini-camp he was practicing with the

RBs. He may have a shot as backup to Ovie. But I also find it hard to put him in the final 53.

Thanks for the effort on the whole roster, good work.

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Overall A real good assessment. However just a couple of comments.

Smith has Historically carried 5DEs and 4DTs and he said "Anderson will start at DE in the base defense and only be used at DT in a substitution package." Yet I notice you move Anderson to DT permanently. And yes I understand that Smith's comment does not insure Anderson a spot.

Klecko, I agree that he will not make the defensive line but at mini-camp he was practicing with the

RBs. He may have a shot as backup to Ovie. But I also find it hard to put him in the final 53.

Thanks for the effort on the whole roster, good work.

I did hear Smitty say that about JA98, and I didn't really know how to reconcile it with the fact that Jamaal has reportedly added some weight and has said himself that he is expecting to play more DT this year. In the end, I don't think it matters that much. I think we keep 9 DL, and Jamaal's 'ability' to play both is why I think he lasts one more year. Whether he's primarily a DE or a DT, I don't know. Interesting note about Klecko playing FB. I know he has played some FB in the NFL. Also, if we do decide to cut ties with Jamaal, he could be in since he does play a boatload of positions.

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