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My new draft rating system


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I think I have figured out a way to apply a numeric analysis to a draft class. You give a number value to each round and a number value to how a player turned out (from elite to practice squad). The better the player, the higher the number. The earlier the round, the lower the number (because you are expected to do well early). You then add up all the numbers and divide by the number of players drafted.

If a team is hitting everything in a draft as the should, they should have an average score of about 100.

Suggestions would be appreciated.

Anyway here is the scoring scale:


Round Value Player Type Value Expected Score
Round 1A (1-10) 10 Elite 110 120
Round 1B (11-32) 20 Pro-Bowl 95 115
Round 2 30 Borderline Pro-Bowl 80 110
Round 3 40 Above Avg. Starter 65 105
Round 4 50 Avg. Starter 50 100
Round 5 60 Below Avg. Starter or
Significant Playing Time 40 100
Round 6 70 Special Teams Player 30 100
Round 7 80 Backup 20 100
UFA 90 Practice Squad 10 100
Failed to Make Team 0 Only for rounds 1-7, do not include UDFA that fail to make team. Mark total as 0 for any players with this value.

And here is how I rated the last few Falcons' drafts:


Falcons 2008 Draft

Player Round Round Value Player Type Value Total
Ryan 1A 10 Elite 110 120
Baker 1B 20 Above Avg. Starter 65 85
Lofton 2 30 Borderline Pro-Bowl 95 125
Jackson 3 40 Significant Playing Time 40 80
Douglas 3 40 Significant Playing Time 40 80
DeCoud 3 40 Avg. Starter 50 90
James 5 60 Backup 20 80
Bierman 5 60 Significant Playing Time 40 100
Brown 6 70 Practice Squad 10 80
Fontenot 7 80 Failed to make team 0 0
Zinger 7 80 Backup 20 100

940 Total points
85 Avg. Points Per Pick

Falcons 2007 Draft

Player Round Round Value Player Type Value Total
Anderson 1A 10 Below Avg. Starter 40 50
Blalock 2 30 Avg. Starter 50 80
Houston 2 30 Below Avg. Starter 40 70
Robinson 3 40 Backup 20 60
Nicolas 4 50 Avg. Starter 50 100
Milner 4 50 Failed to Make Team 0 0
Lewis 6 70 Backup 20 90
Irons 6 70 Failed to Make Team 0 0
Datish 6 70 Failed to Make Team 0 0
Stone 6 70 Failed to Make Team 0 0
Snelling 7 80 Backup 20 90

540 Total points
49 Avg. Points Per Pick
Falcons 2006 Draft

Player Round Round Value Player Type Value Total

Williams 2 30 Backup 20 60
Norwood 3 40 Significant Playing Time 40 80
Ojinnaka 4 50 Backup 20 70
Jennings 6 70 Special Teams Player 30 100
Shockey 7 80 Backup 20 40

350 Total points
70 Avg. Points Per Pick

Falcons 2005 Draft

Player Round Round Value Player Type Value Total
White 1B 20 Pro-Bowl 95 115
Babineaux 2 30 Borderline Pro-Bowl 80 110
Beck 3 40 Failed to Make Team 0 0
Davis 4 50 Significant Playing Time 40 90
Boley 5 60 Avg. Starter 50 110
Omiyale 5 60 Backup 20 80
Cobb 6 70 Practice Squad 10 80
Shropshire 7 80 Backup 20 100

685 Total points
85 Avg. Points Per Pick

Edited by Red Rain
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Shouldn't Shockey's be Shockley's, and shouldn't his score be 100... (80 + 20)

And, in the case of Thomas Brown, you get points for making the Practice Squad your rookie year, which added 80 points to the team total, even though he's since been cut.

Seems heavily weighted towards the lower rounds where a sixth or seventh round pick adds a lot of value to your draft just by making the team. You'll have to weight it differently to get a true value on the draft.

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It's a good first take. I like the system, though I'd not give 70+30 points for a 7th round special teamer. That's 100 points, when a 1st round borderline pro bowl player is actually a far better "value." Think Babineaux versus a Thomas Brown type. If you're constantly getting Babineaux's...you're fielding a good team.

So, I'd give a slightly lower increase to the lower rounds, or else only count guys that are a consistent part of the rotation. (that way you get rid of the noise of special teamers.)

A final way to do it, would be to take whatever player they are (like your categories) and multiply by 1/(1-round value). So, a 1st rounder, you multiply by 1/(1-.1)=1.1

For a 4th rounder, you multiply by 1/(1-.4)=1.6

Basically, you get as much value for a 7th rounder who is a below average starter as a 1st rounder who is a probowler. That way, it doesn't get skewed toward special teamers, but you do get big credit for hitting on late rounders.

I think, in reality, your categories of type of player are more important than the rounds. If you hit on 2 probowlers and 2 solid starters in a draft, it doesn't really matter when they come. Basically, if you can consistently get a 3 solid starters and a rotation player every draft, and a probowler every other draft....you're doing well, regardless of which rounds you grab the guys in.

I like this attempt, though. It's worth applying it to all teams from 08 or so, and seeing what happens.

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