My new draft rating system

[Red Rain]

I think I have figured out a way to apply a numeric analysis to a draft class. You give a number value to each round and a number value to how a player turned out (from elite to practice squad). The better the player, the higher the number. The earlier the round, the lower the number (because you are expected to do well early). You then add up all the numbers and divide by the number of players drafted.

If a team is hitting everything in a draft as the should, they should have an average score of about 100.

Suggestions would be appreciated.

Anyway here is the scoring scale:

Round			Value		Player Type			Value		Expected Score
Round 1A (1-10)		10		Elite				110		120
Round 1B (11-32)	20		Pro-Bowl			95		115
Round 2			30		Borderline Pro-Bowl		80		110
Round 3			40		Above Avg. Starter		65		105
Round 4			50		Avg. Starter			50		100
Round 5			60		Below Avg. Starter or 
					Significant Playing Time	40		100
Round 6			70		Special Teams Player		30		100
Round 7			80		Backup				20		100
UFA			90		Practice Squad			10		100
					Failed to Make Team		0	Only for rounds 1-7, do not include UDFA that fail to make team. Mark total as 0 for any players with this value.	

And here is how I rated the last few Falcons' drafts:

Falcons 2008 Draft						

Player		Round 	Round Value	Player Type			Value	Total	
Ryan		1A	10		Elite				110	120	
Baker		1B	20		Above Avg. Starter		65	85	
Lofton		2	30		Borderline Pro-Bowl		95	125	
Jackson		3	40		Significant Playing Time	40	80	
Douglas		3	40		Significant Playing Time	40	80	
DeCoud		3	40		Avg. Starter			50	90	
James		5	60		Backup				20	80	
Bierman		5	60		Significant Playing Time	40	100	
Brown		6	70		Practice Squad			10	80	
Fontenot	7	80		Failed to make team		0	0	
Zinger		7	80		Backup				20	100	

									940	Total points
									85	Avg. Points Per Pick

Falcons 2007 Draft						

Player		Round 	Round Value	Player Type		Value	Total	
Anderson	1A	10		Below Avg. Starter	40	50	
Blalock		2	30		Avg. Starter		50	80	
Houston		2	30		Below Avg. Starter	40	70	
Robinson	3	40		Backup			20	60	
Nicolas		4	50		Avg. Starter		50	100	
Milner		4	50		Failed to Make Team	0	0	
Lewis		6	70		Backup			20	90	
Irons		6	70		Failed to Make Team	0	0	
Datish		6	70		Failed to Make Team	0	0	
Stone		6	70		Failed to Make Team	0	0	
Snelling	7	80		Backup			20	90	

								540	Total points
								49	Avg. Points Per Pick
Falcons 2006 Draft						

Player		Round 	Round Value	Player Type			Value	Total	

Williams	2	30		Backup				20	60	
Norwood		3	40		Significant Playing Time	40	80	
Ojinnaka	4	50		Backup				20	70	
Jennings	6	70		Special Teams Player		30	100	
Shockey		7	80		Backup				20	40	

									350	Total points
									70	Avg. Points Per Pick

Falcons 2005 Draft						

Player		Round 	Round Value	Player Type			Value	Total	
White		1B	20		Pro-Bowl			95	115	
Babineaux	2	30		Borderline Pro-Bowl		80	110	
Beck		3	40		Failed to Make Team		0	0	
Davis		4	50		Significant Playing Time	40	90	
Boley		5	60		Avg. Starter			50	110	
Omiyale		5	60		Backup				20	80	
Cobb		6	70		Practice Squad			10	80	
Shropshire	7	80		Backup				20	100	

									685	Total points
									85	Avg. Points Per Pick

Edited May 4, 2010 by Red Rain

[poolerspirit]

Shouldn't Shockey's be Shockley's, and shouldn't his score be 100... (80 + 20)

And, in the case of Thomas Brown, you get points for making the Practice Squad your rookie year, which added 80 points to the team total, even though he's since been cut.

Seems heavily weighted towards the lower rounds where a sixth or seventh round pick adds a lot of value to your draft just by making the team. You'll have to weight it differently to get a true value on the draft.

[takeitdown]

It's a good first take. I like the system, though I'd not give 70+30 points for a 7th round special teamer. That's 100 points, when a 1st round borderline pro bowl player is actually a far better "value." Think Babineaux versus a Thomas Brown type. If you're constantly getting Babineaux's...you're fielding a good team.

So, I'd give a slightly lower increase to the lower rounds, or else only count guys that are a consistent part of the rotation. (that way you get rid of the noise of special teamers.)

A final way to do it, would be to take whatever player they are (like your categories) and multiply by 1/(1-round value). So, a 1st rounder, you multiply by 1/(1-.1)=1.1

For a 4th rounder, you multiply by 1/(1-.4)=1.6

Basically, you get as much value for a 7th rounder who is a below average starter as a 1st rounder who is a probowler. That way, it doesn't get skewed toward special teamers, but you do get big credit for hitting on late rounders.

I think, in reality, your categories of type of player are more important than the rounds. If you hit on 2 probowlers and 2 solid starters in a draft, it doesn't really matter when they come. Basically, if you can consistently get a 3 solid starters and a rotation player every draft, and a probowler every other draft....you're doing well, regardless of which rounds you grab the guys in.

I like this attempt, though. It's worth applying it to all teams from 08 or so, and seeing what happens.