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Was I the only one hoping for a loss


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What is better:

(a) No playoffs and a top ten draft pick

or

(B ) No playoffs and the 20th pick in the draft

Will people that disagree with this thread please answer this question? Do you honestly think the Falcons would be better next year with the second option rather than the first option?

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Sorry, but in terms of impact versus salary implications, late 1st round and early 2nd round picks have the most value.

If you over-value high 1st round picks, I suggest you read "The Loser's Curse". I mean the guys who wrote it are only one of the great economists in America and a Yale professor. Of course the board members obviously know better than them seeing as how they built a juggernaut team on PS3.

It's a fascinating read.

Loser's Curse

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What kind of league would the NFL be if every team that got eliminated from the playoffs immediately laid down and quit in every game for the rest of the season and purposefully lost in hopes of a better draft pick the following season? It wouldn't be kind of football that I'd wanna watch.

A really good point Mark......

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This is a reasonable stance to take, and an opinion I respect. If one feels that 9-7 means a winning culture that will somehow spread to next season and be more significant than a higher draft pick, then fine. I don't agree with the sentiment however. I mean, the saints went from 8-8 last year to nearly perfect this season. I think talent wins games, not past seasons.

I think you are vastly underestimating the importance of player psychology...

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If I'm not mistaken we drafted P. Jerry at #20? He's a stud and as long as he can stay healthy THAT was a quality draft pick.

As far as I'm concerned the WHOLE first 3 rounds of the NFL draft are chalk full of great (difference maker) players....not just the top 10.

Don't believe all the hype dude.

;)

Jerry would not have been available at our pick if he wasn't injury prone. He is, though, as we witnessed this season. He would have gone higher if he wasn't injury prone.

And there is a talent gap between 10 and 20 in the draft. Sure there are good players all throughought the draft, but the liklihood of drafting a stud is higher the closer you are to the top of the draft. ****, if we were a couple slots higher we probably would have drafted Oher last year rather than Jerry. Huge difference, no? Draft position matters. Way more than 9-7 vs. 6-10.

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Will people that disagree with this thread please answer this question? Do you honestly think the Falcons would be better next year with the second option rather than the first option?

Honestly, I think you're comparing apples to oranges here.

Atlanta has to shake the Loserville tag and develop into a first class sports team. The Braves helped a lot with their 14 straight division wins, yet still only have 1 Championship to show for it. The Falcons made it to the SB after the 98 season, but couldn't close the deal.

You're talking strictly about talent level. You are leaving out the intangibles. To go 9-7 and break the curse - which is a 40 year albatross on the neck of all Falcon fans - will go a long way toward inspiring the team AND THE FANS. I say WIN these last 2 games.

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Will people that disagree with this thread please answer this question? Do you honestly think the Falcons would be better next year with the second option rather than the first option?

Dude, the draft is a complete and total crapshoot. Sure, it makes more sense to think that a guy taken in the top 10 is going to be a better player than a guy taken in the 20s. However, that is not the case. My opinion is that winning is a mindset that young players need to learn. You should never, EVER take the field if you don't plan on putting everything you can into winning. And, winning out this year would set a tone with the young guys on this team heading into next year.

Another point is that a lot of GMs these days think that players drafted in the 2nd round are 10 times more valuable than first rounders, based simply on return on investment. Personally, I would love to see the Falcons trade out of the first round and stock up on as many 2nd and 3rd rounders as possible.

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I for one care a whole lot more about getting a good draft pick than I care about breaking the back to back winning seasons "curse." A high draft pick sets us up for future success more than meaningless wins in a season where we can't make the playoffs anyway. 6-10 would have gotten us in the top ten in the draft. 9-7 would get us the 20th pick or so. There is a significant talent gap between 10 and 20 in the draft. 20 means we are out of the running for guys like CB Joe Haden, OT Trent Williams, and DE Derrick Morgan. There is no elite talent at positions of need for us at 20.

Before anyone numbnuts come with the predictable "any real fan will want to win" comment, please remeber that real fans want the best for their team. I think there is no significance in going 9-7 rather than going 6-10. Hopefully we lose these last two and at least get a top 15 pick. Worse case scenarion (which I believe will happen) is we go 8-8, don't break the curse, and don't get a high pick.

You're a pig.

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Sorry, but in terms of impact versus salary implications, late 1st round and early 2nd round picks have the most value.

If you over-value high 1st round picks, I suggest you read "The Loser's Curse". I mean the guys who wrote it are only one of the great economists in America and a Yale professor. Of course the board members obviously know better than them seeing as how they built a juggernaut team on PS3.

It's a fascinating read.

Loser's Curse

I don't think the salary gap between 10 and 20 is that big. The top guys get the crazy money. I also don't think one season will make any difference on player/team psychology. The Saints went from 8-8 to (probably) 15-1. We could go from 6-10 to a very good record. A losers mentality takes years to develop.

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Dude, the draft is a complete and total crapshoot. Sure, it makes more sense to think that a guy taken in the top 10 is going to be a better player than a guy taken in the 20s. However, that is not the case.

Not true. It's not a total crapshoot. I guarantee you that the average player taken at 10 is significantly better than the average player taken at 20. That would not be the case if the draft were a crapshoot. Yes there are exceptions to the rule like busts and steals. But better players generally get drafted higher. If we selected a couple cpots higher last year we would have drafted Oher instead of Jerry. Draft position is significant.

My opinion is that winning is a mindset that young players need to learn. You should never, EVER take the field if you don't plan on putting everything you can into winning. And, winning out this year would set a tone with the young guys on this team heading into next year.

I hear you. But I simply don't think a 6-10 record this year would make any difference to how the guys play. We had a terrible record the year before last and went on to 11-5 the year after that. We went 11-5 last year, but the momentum has not carried over.

Another point is that a lot of GMs these days think that players drafted in the 2nd round are 10 times more valuable than first rounders, based simply on return on investment.

No GM thinks that a 2nd round pick is more valuable based on return on investment. If GMs thought this way, they would trade a first round pick for a second round pick straight up. They don't do it because high picks are more valuable. Sure there are many would would rather have multiple 2nd rounders than one first rounder. But I'm sure they'd rather have multiple 1st rounders than multiple second rounders.

Personally, I would love to see the Falcons trade out of the first round and stock up on as many 2nd and 3rd rounders as possible.

I would like that too. We'd have much better options trading out with the 10th pick rather than the 20th pick.

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We are not going to the playoffs anyway. What is better:

(a) No playoffs and a top ten draft pick

or

(B ) No playoffs and the 20th pick in the draft

Gee, call me crazy, but I think we'd be a better team next season with the first option. The record from this year will have no effect on the team next year. A high draft pick would make us better.

It's better to finish on a winning note. Why get use to losing? The 98 Falcons finished a mediocre 97 campaign by winning out, even though it meant nothing. I heard more than a few times in 98', the players saying how finishing strong in 97' carried over to the next season. Also, they used their number 1 pick to select Brooking that year. Whether you like that selection or not. It went on to be a profound selection in Falcon history.

So yes, I won't to win out. We can trade down to get the player we want, or up to get more picks. I'm sure TD, will make thee most of it.

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This is all nice to discuss about, but its all purely speculation. The bottom line is that this falcons team is not going to lay down for anyone, no matter who they may be. They will play their hearts out with who they have left to play, and if they lose, they will have lost only because their opponent played the better game that day, not because they pack it up and are aiming for a higher draft pick.

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Not true. It's not a total crapshoot. I guarantee you that the average player taken at 10 is significantly better than the average player taken at 20. That would not be the case if the draft were a crapshoot. Yes there are exceptions to the rule like busts and steals. But better players generally get drafted higher. If we selected a couple cpots higher last year we would have drafted Oher instead of Jerry. Draft position is significant.

Dude, it is a total crapshoot. The real question is how you evaluate the talent available. If the draft wasn't such a crapshoot, then why do teams like the Raiders, Rams, and Browns continue to draft high, yet continue to miss on those picks. At the same time, teams like the Steelers, Colts, and Pats continue to draft in the late 20s, and somehow continue to find excellent players.

I hear you. But I simply don't think a 6-10 record this year would make any difference to how the guys play. We had a terrible record the year before last and went on to 11-5 the year after that. We went 11-5 last year, but the momentum has not carried over.

I would beg to differ. Think about the start of this year. The team came out of the gate winning 4 out of their first five before the injuries began to mount.

No GM thinks that a 2nd round pick is more valuable based on return on investment. If GMs thought this way, they would trade a first round pick for a second round pick straight up. They don't do it because high picks are more valuable. Sure there are many would would rather have multiple 2nd rounders than one first rounder. But I'm sure they'd rather have multiple 1st rounders than multiple second rounders.

Dude, you don't read much. Any GM worth his salt will tell you that for the money involved, a pick in the early in the second round is a MUCH better value. And, there are trades involving a 1st rounder for a 2nd rounder straight up done all the time. Do you not remember Dan Reeves doing it so he could draft Reggie Kelly? I completely disagree with you about the multiple first rounders idea. In an uncapped league, which we may be staring at next year, that might be the case. But, in a league that must take the cap into consideration, most GMs want those middle round picks. Look at how the dynasties of the salary cap era have been built (Pats, Steelers): through compiling middle round picks or making good use of those late first round picks.

Personally, I would love to see the Falcons trade out of the first round and stock up on as many 2nd and 3rd rounders as possible.

I would like that too. We'd have much better options trading out with the 10th pick rather than the 20th pick.

I can't argue that point. However, purposefully losing to get that 10th pick just isn't in my DNA. And, I would hope that isn't in the DNA of any football player that has excelled enough to make it to the professional level either.

Edited by Don Solo
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nothing can quite compare to this feeling... being the team that makes sure your "curse" lives on, yes please! :)

lets not get ahead of ourselves now, y'all just make sure you beat the bills!

I'm actually really worried about these last two games if Turner can't come back healthy. With turner we should be able to run our way to 9-7, w/o Turner we're not exactly a great running team and these last two games are going to be tough fought.

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I'm actually really worried about these last two games if Turner can't come back healthy. With turner we should be able to run our way to 9-7, w/o Turner we're not exactly a great running team and these last two games are going to be tough fought.

in all honesty y'all are gonna beat the Bills, with or without Turner...

Your too good and the Bills suck, plain and simple.

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I think you are mistaken. The top 10 doesn't necessarily get you a better player, but it does absolutely get you a much higher bill.... Which means less free agents.

Look at all the teams that draft at the top of the draft every year and they are always the same teams. Look at all the teams at the bottom of the draft every year and they are always the same teams. How do the teams at the bottom of the draft always have quality talent to plug in if they never draft in the top 10?

So I ask you, would you rather one expensive gamble of a top 10 draft pick (JA98!), or a few proven quality free agents AND a bottom half draft pick?

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OK, I used to be one of those who wanted the team to lose at the end if the playoffs were out of reach to gain better draft picks, but I have changed my way of thinking for these reasons...

I realized that your team will be better the next year with momentum rather than a few spots higher in the draft.

Why is the team better? It is fairly simple.

If you are trying to attract Free Agents you are more likely to get a guy to sign with your team if you have promise and potential and have momentum. Would you rather play for a 6-10 team or a 9-7 team that had injuries, a tough schedule and went 11-5 the year before. As you build momentum with winning seasons you begin to have a stronger core team and you go into the year with more confidence. Confidence will do more for you team. Next year if they are 8-5 and looking to need 2-3 wins at the end of the year they will remember how they finished strong rather than lost 3 or 4 at the end of the year.

I am really excited about next year b/c the Falcons are not losing any major free agents and they will be picking up guys who were hurt this year. They get their first and second round pick from this year plus several others who were hurt. Just add a few quality Free Agents and a couple of young guys from the draft and the Falcons will be better than this year or last year.

But if we would have lost these games at the end and ended up 6-10....well, a draft pick 8 spots higher wouldn't help this team. They need to get it out of their head that they can't win back to back to back years and keep it going!

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