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Chalk up a W--Fact Based Take


falcndave
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Stats are for idiots. Correct? Well, facts are for idiots when taken at face value and when non-random samples are considered in isolation. However, in context stats can be solid indictors.

First Fact

Fact 1.a--Falcons have one glaring weakness. Passing defense (complete lack thereof).

Fact 1.b--Bucs are not in a position to exploit that weakness. The are dead last in the NFC in passing offense (27th in NFL). Josh Freeman's stats are similar to all other QB's for Tampa this season if you are curious.

Second Fact

Atlanta prefers to run over half the time and Tampa is dead last in rushing defense.

Third Fact

Ryan has struggled against pressure at times. Tamps is, you guessed it, last in sacks in the NFC (28th in NFL).

Fourth Fact

Atlanta is 4-0 at home. Tampa is 0 for the season on the road.

Summary

I think some fans lack confidence due to our recent slide. I have heard statements like, "No game is easy for us." However, I think we fail to really give Tampa credit for just how bad they are this season. My confidence is based on two thoughts. We are not as bad as we feel right now. Tampa is as bad as they look.

We have lost 4 of 5, but none of the losses came to teams remotely as poor as Tampa. Also, none came at home. Caution me about looking past Tampa all you like. I think the stats above point out I'm not looking past them. I'm looking at them and I can't see past the fact they truly are one of the worst teams in the NFL right now. They are not in a position to exploit our weaknesses. They are not in a position to deal with our strenghts. They are on the road.

Any given Sunday? Sure...but not this one. There is no objective view of the facts that points to any hope for Tampa. None.

I am anything but a confident fan. I call for caution all the time. However, Tampa can't beat us in the Dome. Not a chance. Facts is facts.

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Stats are for idiots. Correct? Well, facts are for idiots when taken at face value and when non-random samples are considered in isolation. However, in context stats can be solid indictors.

First Fact

Fact 1.a--Falcons have one glaring weakness. Passing defense (complete lack thereof).

Fact 1.b--Bucs are not in a position to exploit that weakness. The are dead last in the NFC in passing offense (27th in NFL). Josh Freeman's stats are similar to all other QB's for Tampa this season if you are curious.

Second Fact

Atlanta prefers to run over half the time and Tampa is dead last in rushing defense.

Third Fact

Ryan has struggled against pressure at times. Tamps is, you guessed it, last in sacks in the NFC (28th in NFL).

Fourth Fact

Atlanta is 4-0 at home. Tampa is 0 for the season on the road.

Summary

I think some fans lack confidence due to our recent slide. I have heard statements like, "No game is easy for us." However, I think we fail to really give Tampa credit for just how bad they are this season. My confidence is based on two thoughts. We are not as bad as we feel right now. Tampa is as bad as they look.

We have lost 4 of 5, but none of the losses came to teams remotely as poor as Tampa. Also, none came at home. Caution me about looking past Tampa all you like. I think the stats above point out I'm not looking past them. I'm looking at them and I can't see past the fact they truly are one of the worst teams in the NFL right now. They are not in a position to exploit our weaknesses. They are not in a position to deal with our strenghts. They are on the road.

Any given Sunday? Sure...but not this one. There is no objective view of the facts that points to any hope for Tampa. None.

I am anything but a confident fan. I call for caution all the time. However, Tampa can't beat us in the Dome. Not a chance. Facts is facts.

Dave, I felt good before but now I'm icing down an extra 12 pack! I like your stats!

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My point exactly. If everything possible goes wrong. We win.

We lose our QB, RB, OL, Mezzanine refreshment vendor, 2 assistant coaches, about 20,000 fans by the 3rd quarter...and we still win.

TB played as well as they can play in every aspect. They were never going to be good enough to win this one on the road. If this is in TB, they will by 2 scores imho.

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weren't you trying to dish out crow :huh:

Yep. Was I right or wrong? You can't be overconfident about a W in this league before the fact.

I never gave up on the team today. I was here posting all through the game and was saying we were still in it. But overconfidence in a win like above is still silly imo.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. A team can be 0-fer on the road, and the other can be 4-0 at home, and the stats can be whatever they are in previous games, but that doesn't mean anything on game day.

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I think the funniest thing of all is the term "overconfident" being used about a post I started. I was actually underconfident. I went into the stats sheets for two reasons on Saturday. 1) To find out if there has been any drop off in Jenkins this season. 2) To find out what statistical advantages the Bucs could exploit.

I came up empty on both accounts. Jenkins is having a very similar season, and the Bucs didn't own any edge that could be exploited.

If you don't think that home field is the single biggest factor in the NFL, I don't know what games you've been watching. Big upsets generally come in two ways. 1) The underpup is at home. 2) The favorite lacks incentive.

As I said in the original post: Any given Sunday? Sure. It wasn't impossible, but it was HIGHLY improbable. That is an EXTREAMLY objective take anyway you cut it.

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