Where are the Falcons coming up short?

[Peyton]

Add to what I just said that Ryan's 80.0 QB rating currently puts him at #20 in the league, behind guys like Jason Campbell, David Gerrard, and Alex Smith.

That puts him in company with guys like Jay Cutler, Shaun Hill, Chad Henne, and Matt Cassel, all of whom are close to Ryan in that stat.

Yeah but this thread isn't really about Ryan's QB rating. It's about the overall productivitiy of the offense and defense through the first 5 games and then through the second 5 games.

Ryan's drop in yards per attempt and increase in INTs have been pretty much offset by an increase in productivity from the running game and Turner holding onto the ball, so the offensive prodoctivity hasn't really dropped off much.

[Firstiary]

I cannot see how anyone would make an excuse for the defense.

I agree, other than that we didn't expect the defense to be great. But the defense has been pitiful recently. And while the offense as a whole has been pretty good week in and week out, it hasn't been firing on all cylinders like we hoped, and like it is capable of doing. Ryan should get some of the blame for that, but then again he is a 2nd year QB.

[Firstiary]

Yeah but this thread isn't really about Ryan's QB rating. It's about the overall productivitiy of the offense and defense through the first 5 games and then through the second 5 games.

Ryan's drop in yards per attempt and increase in INTs have been pretty much offset by an increase in productivity from the running game and Turner holding onto the ball, so the offensive prodoctivity hasn't really dropped off much.

I'll just a disagree a bit. I've also given stats over the last five games that show that our QB has been pretty bad over that same stretch. That's also been a big part of our problem over this time period. While our offense has been picked up by the running game, it could've also been lights out if Ryan had played at a decent level, and for the most part he hasn't done that over the last five games.

[Peyton]

I agree, other than that we didn't expect the defense to be great. But the defense has been pitiful recently. And while the offense as a whole has been pretty good week in and week out, it hasn't been firing on all cylinders like we hoped, and like it is capable of doing. Ryan should get some of the blame for that, but then again he is a 2nd year QB.

I won't argue with that. The Falcons did enough on offense to win the Giants game though, that loss was on the D. And Elam. And Jenkins.

[duncja]

I agree, other than that we didn't expect the defense to be great. But the defense has been pitiful recently. And while the offense as a whole has been pretty good week in and week out, it hasn't been firing on all cylinders like we hoped, and like it is capable of doing. Ryan should get some of the blame for that, but then again he is a 2nd year QB.

I will agree with you and say going into the season, the defense is playing closer to the expectations I had for them than the offense. I expected more from them, which is crazy since we're 5th in the NFL in touchdown's. That being said, the offense is FAR superior to the defense. An average defense and this team is 7-3.

[Peyton]

I will agree with you and say going into the season, the defense is playing closer to the expectations I had for them than the offense. I expected more from them, which is crazy since we're 5th in the NFL in touchdown's. That being said, the offense is FAR superior to the defense. An average defense and this team is 7-3.

People downplay the loss of HD and Norwood, but not having those players is a big reason why the Falcons are less explosive on offense than expected. Jerious Norwood had over 800 yards and 6 TDs in a reserve role last year for the Falcons, and his skill set is not replaceable, making it hard to replace his production.

[rounz]

People downplay the loss of HD and Norwood, but not having those players is a big reason why the Falcons are less explosive on offense than expected. Jerious Norwood had over 800 yards and 6 TDs in a reserve role last year for the Falcons, and his skill set is not replaceable, making it hard to replace his production.

Good point.

[FalconFanSince1970]

This kind of analysis has to be done on a game by game basis to make an accurate assessment. Not on a total season stat basis. I don't have the time to analyze all the game books, play by plays or tapes but I just had a chance to review the box scores from our ten games. After that review, and taking an objective view, this is how I would rate the units that had the most impact on our wins and losses.

WINS

MIA (19-7) - DEF

CAR (28-20) - OFF

SF (45-10) - DEF, OFF, ST

CHI (21-14) - DEF

WAS (31-17) - DEF, OFF, ST

TOTAL - DEF(4), OFF(3), ST(2)

LOSSES

NE (26-10) - DEF, OFF

DAL (37-21) - DEF, OFF, ST

NO (35-27) - DEF, OFF, ST

CAR (28-19) - DEF, OFF

NYG (34-31) - DEF, OFF ST

TOTAL - DEF(5), OFF(5), ST(3)

NET TOTAL = DEF(-1), OFF(-2), ST(-1)

So pretty close but I could easily argue that the defense was better than the offense overall. I'm ready when you are Peyton. Let me know. Looking forward, the defense faces two more top 10 offenses and the offense faces one top 10 defense so it will likely end in a draw, a 9-7 record and a seat by the fire when the playoffs start. As Gazoo stated in his last thread, we are not an elite team. We have some holes bro. Plenty of em. Trust me.

Edited November 25, 2009 by FalconFanSince1970

[Peyton]

This kind of analysis has to be done on a game by game basis to make an accurate assessment. Not on a total season stat basis. I don't have the time to analyze all the game books, play by plays or tapes but I just had a chance to review the box scores from our ten games. After that review, and taking an objective view, this is how I would rate the units that had the most impact on our wins and losses.

WINS

MIA (19-7) - DEF

CAR (28-20) - OFF

SF (45-10) - DEF, OFF, ST

CHI (21-14) - DEF

WAS (31-17) - DEF, OFF, ST

TOTAL - DEF(4), OFF(3), ST(2)

LOSSES

NE (26-10) - DEF, OFF

DAL (37-21) - DEF, OFF, ST

NO (35-27) - DEF, OFF, ST

CAR (28-19) - DEF, OFF

NYG (34-31) - DEF, OFF ST

TOTAL - DEF(5), OFF(5), ST(3)

NET TOTAL = DEF(-1), OFF(-2), ST(-1)

So pretty close but I could easily argue that the defense was better than the offense overall. I'm ready when you are Peyton. Let me know. Looking forward, the defense faces two more top 10 offenses and the offense faces one top 10 defense so it will likely end in a draw, a 9-7 record and a seat by the fire when the playoffs start. As Gazoo stated in his last thread, we are not an elite team. We have some holes bro. Plenty of em. Trust me.

Yeah OK, the offense deserves a -1 for putting up 31 points in NY.

[Peyton]

So pretty close but I could easily argue that the defense was better than the offense overall. I'm ready when you are Peyton. Let me know. Looking forward, the defense faces two more top 10 offenses and the offense faces one top 10 defense so it will likely end in a draw, a 9-7 record and a seat by the fire when the playoffs start. As Gazoo stated in his last thread, we are not an elite team. We have some holes bro. Plenty of em. Trust me.

Oh really, cause I was positive we were elite. It's not like I've pointed out in 50 different threads that the team simply isn't as good as people want it to be. Oh wait...yeah I did.

[Peyton]

WINS

MIA (19-7) - DEF

CAR (28-20) - OFF

SF (45-10) - DEF, OFF, ST

CHI (21-14) - DEF

WAS (31-17) - DEF, OFF, ST

TOTAL - DEF(4), OFF(3), ST(2)

LOSSES

NE (26-10) - DEF, OFF

DAL (37-21) - DEF, OFF, ST

NO (35-27) - DEF, OFF, ST

CAR (28-19) - DEF, OFF

NYG (34-31) - DEF, OFF ST

TOTAL - DEF(5), OFF(5), ST(3)

NET TOTAL = DEF(-1), OFF(-2), ST(-1)

By the way, the whole concept of you just arbitrarily deciding which units deserve credit for a win or blame for a loss is just garbage.

And besides that, you are completely missing the point of the thread, which was what changed from the first 5 weeks to the second 5 weeks.

Edited November 25, 2009 by Peyton

[Firstiary]

This kind of analysis has to be done on a game by game basis to make an accurate assessment. Not on a total season stat basis. I don't have the time to analyze all the game books, play by plays or tapes but I just had a chance to review the box scores from our ten games. After that review, and taking an objective view, this is how I would rate the units that had the most impact on our wins and losses.

WINS

MIA (19-7) - DEF

CAR (28-20) - OFF

SF (45-10) - DEF, OFF, ST

CHI (21-14) - DEF

WAS (31-17) - DEF, OFF, ST

TOTAL - DEF(4), OFF(3), ST(2)

LOSSES

NE (26-10) - DEF, OFF

DAL (37-21) - DEF, OFF, ST

NO (35-27) - DEF, OFF, ST

CAR (28-19) - DEF, OFF

NYG (34-31) - DEF, OFF ST

TOTAL - DEF(5), OFF(5), ST(3)

NET TOTAL = DEF(-1), OFF(-2), ST(-1)

So pretty close but I could easily argue that the defense was better than the offense overall. I'm ready when you are Peyton. Let me know. Looking forward, the defense faces two more top 10 offenses and the offense faces one top 10 defense so it will likely end in a draw, a 9-7 record and a seat by the fire when the playoffs start. As Gazoo stated in his last thread, we are not an elite team. We have some holes bro. Plenty of em. Trust me.

I agree with Peyton that the offense shouldn't get the blame vs the Giants. That was all about our defense falling short.

Also, I'd give the offense some credit for us vs Miami. Our running game was shut down, but Matt threw 2 TDs (98 QB Rating) and we didn't turn the ball over the whole game. Granted, our defense was great in that game.

If you make those adjustments, our offense is +1 vs our defense. I think, at worst, the offense should be even by this count.

[norbendon]

Yeah OK, the offense deserves a -1 for putting up 31 points in NY.

Or for putting up 27 in New Orleans.

Fact is, that in the NFL, if an offense puts up more than 20 points, it has done it's job. This isn't college where everyone has to score 35 points to win a game.

I'm sorry FFS1970, but your logic is somewhat flawed.

Peyton,

If we're going to say a majority of the blame (but not all) is on the defense, I'll go with that.

In that case, I'm with you on looking at trends and seeing what has gone wrong. How are we doing game by game on rushing yards allowed? passing yards allowed? red zone efficiency? sack totals? hurries?

Is there any way we can get stats for specific player packages (i.e. when JA98 is lined up at NT)?

[Firstiary]

I've been saying this all year. This offense was expected to be elite with those pieces in place. Both Douglas and Norwood were going to be the big play potential players for this Falcons offense and they are gone. That leaves you with 1 Home Run threat at best. Roddy White, and even he isn't the biggest home run threat out there. People complain about the lack of big plays when in reality with the personnel we have out there right now we are the type of offense that is built to sustain long drives and move the ball slowly but surely. Not in big spurts at a time. Throw in Norwood and Douglas that completely changes, and makes us so ridiculously dynamic we would be almost impossible to scheme for.

No doubt we'd be better with Norwood and Douglas, but at the same time Norwood isn't someone that we should count on to play all season long. And you have to expect some attrition on both sides of the ball. If every team in the league was perfectly healthy, they'd all be better teams too.

[norbendon]

Here's some of my own research on the subject...

Games 1-5 we gave up 118.2 rushing yards per game and 241 passing yards per game

Games 6-10 we gave up 34.0 rushing yards per game and 265.8 passing yards per game

This means that over that stretch the defense is giving up 15.8 more rushing yards per game and 24.8 more passing yards per game.

Here's the kicker. Going by current total offense rankings...

Games 1-5 our average opponent is ranked 17.2 in the league.

Games 6-10 our average opponent is ranked 10.0 in the league.

Games 1-5 our defense held opponents to an average of 7.3 points per game less than their average

Games 6-10 our defense has given up 6.3 more points per game than our opponents average

What this tells me, is that we have faced much better offenses the past five games and when you combine that with all the teams we got off of byes and the road games, maybe out defense isn't quite as bad as we think.

[rounz]

Here's some of my own research on the subject...

Games 1-5 we gave up 118.2 rushing yards per game and 241 passing yards per game

Games 6-10 we gave up 34.0 rushing yards per game and 265.8 passing yards per game

This means that over that stretch the defense is giving up 15.8 more rushing yards per game and 24.8 more passing yards per game.

Here's the kicker. Going by current total offense rankings...

Games 1-5 our average opponent is ranked 17.2 in the league.

Games 6-10 our average opponent is ranked 10.0 in the league.

Games 1-5 our defense held opponents to an average of 7.3 points per game less than their average

Games 6-10 our defense has given up 6.3 more points per game than our opponents average

What this tells me, is that we have faced much better offenses the past five games and when you combine that with all the teams we got off of byes and the road games, maybe out defense isn't quite as bad as we think.

Could you check your posted rushing yards per game again?

[Goal Line D]

Great stuff as usual Peyton.

Good thing our D steps up and plays a LOT better at home. Hopefully their stats get back to the form of the first 5 games.

[FalconFanSince1970]

...I'm sorry FFS1970, but your logic is somewhat flawed...

Man if I could get a dollar for every time I've heard that I would be outta here. I love the word you used. LOGIC. That's how I try to live everyday. Logically.

Any Falcon tidbits I post on here are simply logic and realism. That's all you'll ever get from me. Ever.

As stated before I just perused every boxscore from our ten games and based on that and what I recall from watching each game at least twice, that's how I call it.

It's close but at this point defense grades out better than offense or STs for me. If you guys wanna go deeper I'm ready. I have a little bit of time over the next few days. Let me know.

[duncja]

Well, 4 of our 5 losses came against 4 of the top 5 offenses in the league. The other was against a division rival that we split the series with. The schedule is about to get A LOT easier. Unfortunately the way I see thing happening is us going 5-1, finishing 10-6, and losing to one of these explosive offenses in the first round. I'm okay with that though.

[capologist]

Peria Jerry was a bigger loss than many may realize. He was drawing double teams which freed up Abe and really helped us against the run. Factor in Brian Williams going down hurt and I believe that's the main 2 reasons we are having issues right now...

[duncja]

Peria Jerry was a bigger loss than many may realize. He was drawing double teams which freed up Abe and really helped us against the run. Factor in Brian Williams going down hurt and I believe that's the main 2 reasons we are having issues right now...

I want to believe that, I'm just skeptical. I think the quality of offenses we've played since then has been more of a factor.

[norbendon]

Could you check your posted rushing yards per game again?

Sure, I'll double check my research and my math and make any changes if anything is wrong and let you know.

Man if I could get a dollar for every time I've heard that I would be outta here. I love the word you used. LOGIC. That's how I try to live everyday. Logically.

Any Falcon tidbits I post on here are simply logic and realism. That's all you'll ever get from me. Ever.

As stated before I just perused every boxscore from our ten games and based on that and what I recall from watching each game at least twice, that's how I call it.

It's close but at this point defense grades out better than offense or STs for me. If you guys wanna go deeper I'm ready. I have a little bit of time over the next few days. Let me know.

I understand where you're coming from, but I disagree with pinning poor play on an offense that scores enough points to win. If yuo care to go more in depth I'd be interested in your analysis. For instance, were there circumstances in those games where the offense gave the opposing team a short field on a turnover that changed momentum, gave up a touchdown that might have been the difference in the game?

I want to believe that, I'm just skeptical. I think the quality of offenses we've played since then has been more of a factor.

I think that there's a great deal of merit in this. I'm going to do some more research and I'll get back on here later with it.

[ChessPlayer1]

I'm willing to bet that IF our offense stops turning the ball over our DEFENSE will improve.

[duncja]

I'm willing to bet that IF our offense stops turning the ball over our DEFENSE will improve.

I'm willing to bet that IF our offense continues playing the way it has, and our defense holds an opponent to under 20 points, the Falcons will win.

[FalconFanSince1970]

Peria Jerry was a bigger loss than many may realize. He was drawing double teams which freed up Abe and really helped us against the run. Factor in Brian Williams going down hurt and I believe that's the main 2 reasons we are having issues right now...

Sure, I'll double check my research and my math and make any changes if anything is wrong and let you know.I understand where you're coming from, but I disagree with pinning poor play on an offense that scores enough points to win. If yuo care to go more in depth I'd be interested in your analysis. For instance, were there circumstances in those games where the offense gave the opposing team a short field on a turnover that changed momentum, gave up a touchdown that might have been the difference in the game?I think that there's a great deal of merit in this. I'm going to do some more research and I'll get back on here later with it.

Bro it's way deeper than season stats. Trust me. It's really a play by play analysis. Smitty and the boys have that analysis. I don't but I'm willing to do it if necessary.

You have to be good in three phases to win in the NFL. We haven't been that good. The offense has been the worst phase at this point in my opionion. They all were bad though.