Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Dude has my hair standing up on the back my neck. I'm getting ready to check the real story. Give me a couple hours. I'll try to paint the real picture.Here let me give you a head start. The Falcons defense is 31st in the league at stopping 3rd down conversions. Make sure you confirm that now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rounz Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 I included the turnovers on the original post, but here it isoffensive first 5 games - 7offensive next 5 games - 10defensive first 5 games - 12defensive next 5 games - 7Doh!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbendon Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 Here let me give you a head start. The Falcons defense is 31st in the league at stopping 3rd down conversions. Make sure you confirm that now.That truly is a pathetic stat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 That truly is a pathetic stat.Yeah but better than this one:The Falcons are 32nd in number of 3rd down conversions allowed (68). That's last ya'll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 I love how Peyton has punched this Falcon fan since 1970 (up for debate IMO) guy in the mouth twice and he really won't acknowledge it or give him his due for thorough research which proves without a doubt the defense is the real problem and not the offense.You know what, like anybody who researches statistics, I make mistakes, but not that many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstiary Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 I agree with the larger point. Our defense has dropped off mainly, not so much the offense as a whole. But let's not let the Offense totally off the hook, especially Ryan (though to be fair, Turner wasn't so good in the first five).Here are Ryan's QB ratings in the first five games:981228211068Last five games:6647815788We haven't gotten all of our parts working together consistently yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rounz Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 I think I have been putting the blame more on O the past few weeks than D.For one, I didn't expect much out of the D this year.Remember when everybody poopooed the alarm of a few of us after our 3rd pre-season game when (who was it, San Diego?) shredded our D?But I expected more out of our O.When I think of the last few games, the main pictures that come to mind is the D getting the ball on a turnover, and the O giving it right back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rounz Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 I guess i really need to look at TOP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 I agree with the larger point. Our defense has dropped off mainly, not so much the offense as a whole. But let's not let the Offense totally off the hook, especially Ryan (though to be fair, Turner wasn't so good in the first five).Here are Ryan's QB ratings in the first five games:981228211068Last five games:6647815788We haven't gotten all of our parts working together consistently yet.There are a couple of areas where the offense has dropped off a little, as you might expect when you play 4 tough road games in a 5 game stretch. My point is that the defense has made a much more precipitous drop.And the turnover differential in the two stretches isn't what you might think, partly because Ryan's INT streak coincided with Turner remembering how to properly secure the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 I guess i really need to look at TOP.Well I can get that for you, but one thing for you to consider. The offense and the defense is going to play a role in that, so it's hard to quantify the problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 TOPfirst 5 games - 29:02last 5 games - 29:45estimated, within a couple of tics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice1974 Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 After 5 games, the Falcons were 4-1 and most fans were pretty happy with where things were going, both with the offense and with the defense. Five games later, the Falcons are 5-5 and some folks are looking for where it all went wrong. People want to blame Matt Ryan, people blame Mike Mularkey, people blame injuries, and some people blame the defense.I think that everyone realizes that playing 4 of the last 5 games on the road is key as well, it's just that some people expected the Falcons to win 2 or more of those games. But stricly from an offensive and defensive perspective, I was interested in giving it a look to see if I could figure out exactly where the problem lies.Falcons points scored first 5 weeks - 123Falcons points scored next 5 weeks - 129Falcons points allowed first 5 weeks - 77Falcons points allowed next 5 weeks - 151Falcons offensive yards gained first 5 weeks - 1639Falcons offensive yards gained next 5 weeks - 1798Falcons defensive yards allowed first 5 weeks - 1796Falcons defensive yards allowed next 5 weeks - 1999Falcons offensive TDs scored first 5 weeks - 16Falcons offensive TDs scored next 5 weeks - 14Falcons defensive TDs allowed first 5 weeks - 8Falcons defensive TDs allowed next 5 weeks - 17Falcons turnovers first 5 weeks - 7Falcons turnovers next 5 weeks - 10Falcons turnovers forced first 5 weeks - 12Falcons turnovers forced next 5 weeks - 7So after looking this over, I think I've determined where the Falcons are regressing, and it's not on the offensive side of the ball.all of those are pretty close, except TD's allowed, and theres the big difference......the bend and shatter defense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Here is a stat I found interesting. I'm going to list the Top 10 Teams in OFFENSIVE PPG in order and beside their name I am going to put where they rank in DEFENSIVE PPG.Saints 14Vikings 10Patriots 2Colts 1Chargers 15Giants 23Eagles 13Packers 12Falcons 20Cardinals 11Only 2 teams in that list are outside the top 15 in the league. The Falcons and the Giants.What makes the stat alarming is that the Falcons were 3rd in the league in points allowed after 5 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstiary Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 What makes the stat alarming is that the Falcons were 3rd in the league in points allowed after 5 games.I was thinking about some of those stats today, and how after 3-5 games people were throwing around those stats as if they meant anything. The NFL season is very short, and the whole season is an example of a "small sample size." Especially after a handful of games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 all of those are pretty close, except TD's allowed, and theres the big difference......the bend and shatter defenseYour actually right on it. The biggest difference in this team the last 5 weeks is it went from being a great red zone team that didn't give up big play TDs to being a bad red zone that routinely gives up big play TDs too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstiary Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 Your actually right on it. The biggest difference in this team the last 5 weeks is it went from being a great red zone team that didn't give up big play TDs to being a bad red zone that routinely gives up big play TDs too.And I was thinking of that too. Red Zone D is a perfect example of a small sample size scenario that we shouldn't generally draw many conclusions from. It's like hitting with runners in scoring position in baseball. Very random. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice1974 Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 Your actually right on it. The biggest difference in this team the last 5 weeks is it went from being a great red zone team that didn't give up big play TDs to being a bad red zone that routinely gives up big play TDs too.I think that directly relates to the CB's, when the ball is on the other side of the field, the CB's can feel safe giving the WR a 10 yard cushion, in the red zone... cant do it, Peyton a stat I would like to see......how many of those TD's have been directly related to passing TD's or rushing TD'sand if they were rushing, was it because we stopped a big pass play at the 3 or 5 yard lineI bet the passing TD's have gone up from 5 to 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rounz Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 I'm not arguing that our D isn't close to where it needs to be.But some points to consider:-We all agree that we have a hellacious schedule this year.It's hard on both sides of the ball, but D always has to expend more energy that the O in a game.-the bend-but-don't-break scheme doesn't lend itself to the D getting off the field quick.-the O doesn't stay ON the field long enough (Not sure about this, because don't have TOP yet. And I think TOP during the ebb and flow of the game is more important to the outcome rather than cumulative TOP.There are crucial times when the O needs to give the D a rest.I'm not even including the emotional letdown the D probably feels after wrestling the ball back for the O and watching them give it right back--and having to go right back out there on the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 I think that directly relates to the CB's, when the ball is on the other side of the field, the CB's can feel safe giving the WR a 10 yard cushion, in the red zone... cant do it, Peyton a stat I would like to see......how many of those TD's have been directly related to passing TD's or rushing TD'sand if they were rushing, was it because we stopped a big pass play at the 3 or 5 yard lineI bet the passing TD's have gone up from 5 to 5 Let me see what I can do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstiary Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 And as the season has progressed we have lost more than we have won. I really don't get how some people can't see the most glaring problem with this team. They want to blame the offense and Ryan with all their heart, but the stats just don't back up that claim at all. The defense has fallen off a cliff and is killing this football team right now. When an offense has to play an almost perfect football game to even be in contention in the end more often than not you are going to lose more than you win because it isn't going to happen. Defense wins championships. The offense is doing their part but the defense isn't matching their performance. The proof is in the pudding.Ryan deserves his share of it too, but I agree the defense has been slipping up bigtime. Then again, we aren't supposed to have a lights-out defense and we figured that going into the season we would have to count on our offense more.Ryan's QB rating when we win:981221106881and when we lose:6647578288If you want to make a case that our fortunes rise and fall with Matt Ryan's arm, then there's evidence for that, too. Which shouldn't surprise anyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 I think that directly relates to the CB's, when the ball is on the other side of the field, the CB's can feel safe giving the WR a 10 yard cushion, in the red zone... cant do it, Peyton a stat I would like to see......how many of those TD's have been directly related to passing TD's or rushing TD'sand if they were rushing, was it because we stopped a big pass play at the 3 or 5 yard lineI bet the passing TD's have gone up from 5 to 5first 5 - D gave up 3 rushing and 5 passingnext 5 - D gave up 6 rushing and 11 passingDuring the first 5 games, Johnny Knox was the only WR to catch a TD pass against ATLDuring the next 5 games, the Falcons have given up 6 TDs to WR, but 3 of those were against Dallas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peyton Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Ryan deserves his share of it too, but I agree the defense has been slipping up bigtime. Then again, we aren't supposed to have a lights-out defense and we figured that going into the season we would have to count on our offense more.Ryan's QB rating when we win:981221106881and when we lose:6647578288If you want to make a case that our fortunes rise and fall with Matt Ryan's arm, then there's evidence for that, too. Which shouldn't surprise anyone.It's true that we thought the defense might suck. This thread was mostly just to address what has changed the most from the first 5 weeks to the second 5 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takeitdown Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 Good stats, Peyton. I think the D is clearly the side of the ball that has regressed.However, that was pretty predictable, and I think why people blame the O. If you asked most at the beginning of the year, they would have said we should be a top 5 offense easily, and around 20 on Defense. So, when we were 3rd, that was an aberration.If you expected the offense to score 28ppg and consistently have long drives and few turnovers, they're still underperforming.If you expected the D to give up 350 ypg and 20 pts per game...they're underperforming, but similalry compared to expectations.I think this is all about the expectations. Our offense is clearly playing better than our defense, but not as close to its peak as it should. Our D doesn't really have a lot of possibility.If you ask me for the season, which unit am I disappointed with the most, it's definitely the offense, but it's because I expected them to be great. I know they're better than the D, but we needed them to carry the team because we knew the D would be bad.Now, where what I will grant you has utterly broken our backs is 3rd down conversions by opposing offenses. If you change that one stat to average, we're a 7-3 type team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firstiary Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 Add to what I just said that Ryan's 80.0 QB rating currently puts him at #20 in the league, behind guys like Jason Campbell, David Gerrard, and Alex Smith.That puts him in company with guys like Jay Cutler, Shaun Hill, Chad Henne, and Matt Cassel, all of whom are close to Ryan in that stat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncja Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 I agree with the larger point. Our defense has dropped off mainly, not so much the offense as a whole. But let's not let the Offense totally off the hook, especially Ryan (though to be fair, Turner wasn't so good in the first five).Here are Ryan's QB ratings in the first five games:981228211068Last five games:6647815788We haven't gotten all of our parts working together consistently yet.Look at Turner the first 5 games and the last 5:First 5 games:65 yards105 yard56 yards97 yards30 yardsLast 5 games:50 yards151 yards166 yards111 yardsInjuredReason I'm bringing this up, is that when Turner was struggling early, Matt Ryan was playing better himself. When Matt Ryan was struggling, Turner picked it up. The offense has continued playing relatively well. As Peyton showed, we've actually scored more points the last 5 games than we did the first 5.I cannot see how anyone would make an excuse for the defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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