Jump to content

A discussion on interceptions


justcs3
 Share

Recommended Posts

Should they evaluate INT's the way errors are in baseball?

With all the talk about our QB and how he compares to others, it got me to thinking. See, I've been debating like most of you all, about which one of his were bad throws, mistakes by the receivers, good plays by the defense or other. (Of course they all show up the same in the game stats.)

Take the NO game for instance, he made 3 INT's. The first resulted in a TD, the second took a potential go ahead TD from us and the latter was in desperation.

  • The first appeared to be DPI. Though my uncle, who recently retired from refereeing, said it was an uncatchable ball. Which further the debate. My response was that it became uncatchable once Roddy was knocked off his feet.
  • The second was a great play by both the LB and the DB. Without a great display of athletic skill and concentration, it was either a catch or an INC.
  • The last was just a hail mary throw, although some on this board suggest he could have made a better throw if he had stopped to plant his feet.

So FalconNation, you tell me. If you were keeping score at home like they do in baseball, how many legit INT's does Ryan have?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, really? After all the Ryan bashing and this player sucks and this coach sucks and all this ludicrous talk, not one reasonable response?

Or do some not know how errors are scored in baseball?

It's a good point man, it's just a slow night here.

Your analysis of the Saints game is great. The only thing I'd say about the first INT is, even thought it was definitely defensive pass intereference, it was still a terrible decision.

It's just a tough spell he is going through. He'll find his rhythm, he'll be fine. The Falcons are going to need a couple of more legitimate type receivers before this offense is complete though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not all his INTs have been where he did not see a defender and threw it to him. Tipped ball and overthrow INTs require other things to happen besides QB stupidity. Ryan's INTs will go down when the O-line starts protecting better and he works out the mechanics of throwing to the left.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

my breakdown of his INTs so far

1- bad throw. forced it into 3 guys. vs CAR

2- roddy got screened by the ref at the last second. not his fault. vs SF

3- over threw the WR. vs CHI

4- tipped ball by jenkins. not his fault. vs CHI

5- jenkins got knocked out by jenkins, which should've been a penalty. not his fault. vs DAL

6- forced a throw late in the game trying to make a play. vs DAL

7- yeah roddy got knocked down but it was still a bad throw. vs NO

8- tipped ball and amazing play by the D. not his fault. vs NO

9- hail mary. 9 times out of 10 those are knocked incomplete or intercepted. it's not a play where you make a read or really even make a decision based on the D so i'm not going to include this as his fault.

10- threw into 3x coverage. his fault. vs WAS

11- over threw jenkins. his fault. vs CAR

12- over threw jenkins, but i'm not sure that jenkins didn't mistime his jump. i'll count it as his fault though. vs CAR

he only has 7 INTs that i'd really count against him. not bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a good point man, it's just a slow night here.

Your analysis of the Saints game is great. The only thing I'd say about the first INT is, even thought it was definitely defensive pass intereference, it was still a terrible decision.

It's just a tough spell he is going through. He'll find his rhythm, he'll be fine. The Falcons are going to need a couple of more legitimate type receivers before this offense is complete though.

Yeah, it is for me too. That's why I wrote it b/c I had no one else to talk about it with and the board is not hopping tonight.

Yeah, it was a bad decision. But look at the other QB of that game. He got all the praise when he literally just threw the ball high and in the area of his receivers a few times. He Kurt Warner'd the ball. LoL

How come we don't do that? Can anybody besides TG go and get the ball? Didn't Roddy do that last year?

Thank you all for making me feel important for a couple of minutes. Now, what do I do with the 13 minutes I have left?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with the concept here. That being said though how far do you break it down. Stats are so easy to make what you want out of them. I would probably stop at whether the INT is a direct result of the throw/decision of the QB. Otherwise you have too many variables such as did the receiver fall/slip, missed PI, tipped ball, missed route etc, the list could go on.

Then before that stat would mean anything you would have to do it for the league. So would it be like baseball and the home team's scorer determines a hit or error? I like looking at stats but for me it basically comes down to consistant perfomance and outcome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with the concept here. That being said though how far do you break it down. Stats are so easy to make what you want out of them. I would probably stop at whether the INT is a direct result of the throw/decision of the QB. Otherwise you have too many variables such as did the receiver fall/slip, missed PI, tipped ball, missed route etc, the list could go on.

Then before that stat would mean anything you would have to do it for the league. So would it be like baseball and the home team's scorer determines a hit or error? I like looking at stats but for me it basically comes down to consistant perfomance and outcome.

I agree with your premise. And in baseball, errors are decided by "official" scorers who judge whether the player would make that play normally and if it resulted in an advantage by the opposing team. And they are clearly bias.

One good thing is that in the NFL, games are played once a week and the season is only 17 weeks long for the regular season. So, you could have NFL officials doing the scoring. Like you have "neutral" commentators for every broadcast.

I'm not saying we should do this, just a thought.

But I think it is doable. They didn't even keep sack stats for years and now players are getting paid on that alone.

Players are paid on stats, betting lines are determined by tendencies, fantasy owners live/die by them, and most importantly of all, we use them to justify our points on the board man!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd like to see what happens if ...

1) Mat don't throw into tripple coverage anymore.

2) We avoid risky pass plays just before the half.

3) Go for one-on-one situations (even his receiver has to battle for the ball).

Overall I don't like it but think this is a normal process (or let's say bad time/month at the moment).

Mat didn't deliver his best game at the moment? YES.

Mat is a liability? NO!

All good teams can step it up when bad things (injuries, faults or whatever) happen. See New Orleans or Indy.

Should they have won all games? No, but they managed to do it.

Will they win all games? No, imagine when your team goes 16-0 and loose the first one in the post season wacko.gif (Or 15-1 like the Vikings in 98)

Are our Falcons a good team? Yes, but they are not stable enough and at the moment whe loose on 2-3 plays that decide the game.

And in the end ... Everything is possible happy.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Matt Ryan is much more of a gun slinger than most realized after last season. If you remember back to last year, he completed some great passes into tight spots and heavy coverage. Also a handful of poor throws went in and out of the defenders hands. Should we also include those in int numbers, or should this official scoring only be applied when it improves Ryan's statistics?

I'm a big Ryan fan. This isn't bashing him. I just feel that people don't realize that his game hasn't changed much. He's been less fortunate with some balls that weren't bad passes winding up being intercepted. But that will happen when you face better competition like we are this year. Tougher defenses & a little misfortune = decline in his qb rating. He's going through some growing pains and it is true that his level of play recently has been poor. But it's nice to know that he is a gym rat, film study addict, and smart football player. I agree that he'll improve and has a very very high upside.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...