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A Comprehensive Objective View at Matt Ryan


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The Sophomore Slump. O-line inefficiency. Strength of Schedule.

I kept seeing such phrases popping up in regards to Matt Ryan, so I wanted to do some stat hunting and research for the sheer fact of knowing more. While I looked things up, I decided to make a post. At the very least, it makes you and I a little wiser. I am not here to scrutinize or defend our QB, I'm just laying out the facts and stats.

Since he has played 8 games, the fairest I can be is to multiply times two and compare it to last season's 16 games. These are just estimations based on past performance and if he maintains these stats.

"The Sophomore Slump(?)"

2008 / 2009 Passing Stats (2009 = Numbers x 2)

16 --- 26 TDs

11 --- 20 INT

3440 - 3568 Yards

434 -- 514 COMP

256 --- 312 ATT

61.1% - 60.1% COMP%

215 -- 223 Yards per Game

36.2% - 36.2% 1st down %

45 --- 36 20+ Yard completions

9 ---- 6 40+ Yard completions

Take what you want from it.

"Strength of Schedule(?)"

Then I thought to myself, "he hasn't played the same 8 teams as last year." So how do they compare in terms of pass defense? Here are the stats for team and rank in total passing yards allowed on defense by that team.

Week 1:

2008 - DET Ranked 27th in Pass Defense

2009 - MIA Ranked 28th in Pass Defense

Week 2:

2008 - TB Ranked 4th in Pass Defense

2009 - CAR Ranked 7th in Pass Defense

Week 3:

2008 - KC Ranked 28th in Pass Defense

2009 - MIA Ranked 4th in Pass Defense

Week 4:

2008 - CAR Ranked 16th in Pass Defense

2009 - BYE

Week 5:

2008 - GB Ranked 12th in Pass Defense

2009 - SF Ranked 24th in Pass Defense

Week 6:

2008 - CHI Ranked 30th in Pass Defense

2009 - CHI Ranked 12th in Pass Defense

Week 7:

2008 - BYE

2009 - DAL Ranked 20th in Pass Defense

Week 8:

2008 - PHI Ranked 3rd in Pass Defense

2009 - NO Ranked 16th in Pass Defense

Week 9:

2008 - OAK Ranked 10th in Pass Defense

2009 - WAS Ranked 4th in Pass Defense

I decided to take the mean ranks from both seasons for the first 8 teams played.

2008 - Ranked 16.25th

2009 - Ranked 14.38th

2008 Strength of Schedule - 118-138(.461) vs. 2 teams coming off Bye (Game vs. PHI = Both teams off bye)

2009 Strength of Schedule - 150-105-1(.588) vs. 4 teams coming off Bye

Take what you want from this.

"O-Line Inefficiency(?)"

What about the offensive line ranking? They've given up 9 sacks this year, versus 11 against the first 8 opponents last year. In fact, the O-Line has allowed the fewest QB hits (19) and sacks(9) among any team in the NFC.

Link for Proof

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Great analysis. I'm not worried at all about Ryan. He's a second year QB that while slumping is still putting up better numbers than he did as a rookie (except for a few more interceptions). Watching Ryan through the first 8 games, its easy to see he's struggling as of late; the OL (he's getting happy feet) has not played well and good defensive fronts have exposed that. Don't get me wrong, our line is good but far from great. In fact, most of our passing plays are 3 step drops so Ryan can get the ball out of his hands and thats why we don't see too many deep pass plays. What's going to help Ryan the remaining of games is Turner. He looks like he's back in form and we should ride him the rest of the season and make sure Ryan plays mistake free and we'll be good to go come playoffs. As for our OL, we have to get more talented players who are better at pass protection (especially at the right side of the line).

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thanks for the work.

the sacks stat is "true" but is garbage. Notice the higher INT's? A QB who, for good reason, doesn't trust his pass protection; especially with Svtick at LT. rushes throws, has bad mechanics and throws more INT's.

however Ryan's high throws are due to overstriding. Watch his front leg. By stepping long, that keeps you from being able to get on top of the ball. Try it.

Good news is, it is fixable!

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i posted a thread on TATF about matt's slump.

it pretty much said that i think that his slump is a result of tiny problems combined:

1) O line pass protection slump

2) matt ryan throw accuracy

3) jenkins is in a slump

4) strength of the pass defenses

go check it out if you want but that pretty much sums it up :D

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I think we have seen the end of Matt's slump. He played extremely well in the 2nd half of the Panthers game. He completed 15 of 22 passes (68%) for 176 yards (8.0 ypa) for 1 TD and 1 INT. That was good enough for a QB Rating of 88 which is pretty good. Without the interception it would have been over 100. I don't really blame that 2nd interception on Matt as much as I blame it on Mularkey. I thought it was an absolutely horrible call when you take into account all the things that happened leading up to that play and the amount of time that was still left in the game. We should have continued with the 5-10 yard passing game that was working great in the 2nd half. But Ryan was throwing the ball with more confidence and had more zip in the 2nd half. I think he's in line to have a great game against the Giants especailly with their weak pass defense.

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I think we have seen the end of Matt's slump. He played extremely well in the 2nd half of the Panthers game. He completed 15 of 22 passes (68%) for 176 yards (8.0 ypa) for 1 TD and 1 INT. That was good enough for a QB Rating of 88 which is pretty good. Without the interception it would have been over 100. I don't really blame that 2nd interception on Matt as much as I blame it on Mularkey. I thought it was an absolutely horrible call when you take into account all the things that happened leading up to that play and the amount of time that was still left in the game. We should have continued with the 5-10 yard passing game that was working great in the 2nd half. But Ryan was throwing the ball with more confidence and had more zip in the 2nd half. I think he's in line to have a great game against the Giants especailly with their weak pass defense.

We can only hope this is true.

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