How many selections will we have in the 2010 draft?

[The Dirty Bird]

Without any compensatory draft selections, our 2010 draft looks like this:

1)

3)

4)

5)

6)

No 2nd round pick because of the Gonzalez trade and no 7th round pick because of the Tye Hill trade.

This past offseason we lost Domonique Foxworth (a starter in Baltimore), Keith Brooking (a starter and leader in Dallas), Michael Boley (a starter when healthy in New York), and Grady Jackson (started 6 out of the 7 games this season in Detroit).

That is 4 qualifying losses.

We signed Mike Peterson, who has been a starter for us.

That is 1 qualifying gain.

4-1 = 3 compensatory selections.

What I don't know is which loss does the signing of Mike Peterson neutralize? Jackson? Boley?

I'm going to guess that Jackson is the loss that is neutralized (with no reasoning whatsoever) so we get comp picks for Boley, Brooking, and Foxworth.

Now to the actual picks.

If their seasons continue at the same pace as they have gone so far:

Brooking will finish with 114 total tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 7 PBUs.

Foxworth will finish with 34 tackles, 18 PBUs, and 2 INTs.

Boley will finish with 51 tackles and 7 PBUs (assuming he plays with Sunday).

(Jackson will finish with 30 tackles and 2 FF)

These are all stats for the regular season, figured out by simple math taking what they have now divided by the amount of games they have played and then multiplied by a 16 game season (except for Boley who was done with some extra math).

Brooking's stat line seems worthy of a 3rd round pick, but the comp pick takes into account the salary of the player and he is only making $6 million over his 3 year contract with $2.5 million guaranteed. The Cowboys are also looking like a playoff team right now, and Brooking is a large part of that leading the Dallas D in tackles. While this could become a 3rd round pick, we'll call it a 4th round pick.

Foxworth's stat line seems like a 4th round pick, 5th round pick at worse. However he got the contract of a 3rd round comp pick, getting 4 years for $28 million with $16.5 million guaranteed. While he hasn't really been a shutdown CB, he has done a pretty good job and everyone can see that we miss him. The Ravens are also headed to the playoffs again, so that will factor in. We'll call this a 4th round pick.

Boley's stat line seems like a 5th or 6th round comp pick, but you have to keep in mind he was suspended for a game and has been injured but he should be back this Sunday. Had he played every game this season he would have been (by my math) had 75 tackles and 11 PBUs. He also got a big contract that is borderline 3rd/4th comp pick material with a 5 year deal worth $25 million with $11 million guaranteed. The Giants seem to be headed to the playoffs, so that should factor in as well. We'll call this a 5th round pick.

So our 2010 draft selections should look like:

1)

3)

4)

4comp)

4comp)

5)

5comp)

6)

What do you guys think?

[atljbo]

I am 100% sure that we will get a 4th round pick for Foxworth and a 5th round pick for Boley..

Those are for sure... OK

Brooking and Peterson kinda cancel each other out except Brooking looks like he will have a better stat line.... But Mike Peterson is getting paid more then Brooking so they kinda cancel each other out.

Im thinking that Grady Jackson and the little extra credit brooking will produce should be a 6th or 7th round pick...

So i am thinking

So our 2010 draft selections should look like:

1)

3)

4)

4comp)

5)

5comp)

6)

7) (maybe)

[gritzblitz]

Here are Peterson's stats thus far:

Tackles solo asst sacks Fumbles

Mike Peterson 47 34 13 1.0 2

Projected (using your methods)

107 77 30 3 4.5

Peterson:

Peterson's stats (and role) seem to match Brookings. So we may lose one of the 4th rd comp picks

Boley

Rarely does a player return to 100% health after an early injury, especially playing such a physical role as LB. I don't think Boley is going to have a great stats year *hope I'm wrong for our sake.

So may best guess is that we recieve 3 picks: Peterson cancels Brookings; 2-5th Rd (Fox and Boley), 1-7th (Gravy)

But i can't even pretend to completely understand the comp picks formula even though it has been explained a couple of times on this board.

Have to admit though....I hope you are right.

[atljbo]

Its a guy name AdamJT13... He has worked with espn and everything (helping them project comp picks).... Dude is normally dead on (ive talk to him a couple of times) ...

The formula he think that the NFL uses is his contract, his playing time (also stats) and his postseason awards

His contract is the biggest factor.... How much he makes a year.... That's the main thing

[The Dirty Bird]

I am 100% sure that we will get a 4th round pick for Foxworth and a 5th round pick for Boley..

Those are for sure... OK

Brooking and Peterson kinda cancel each other out except Brooking looks like he will have a better stat line.... But Mike Peterson is getting paid more then Brooking so they kinda cancel each other out.

Im thinking that Grady Jackson and the little extra credit brooking will produce should be a 6th or 7th round pick...

So i am thinking

So our 2010 draft selections should look like:

1)

3)

4)

4comp)

5)

5comp)

6)

7) (maybe)

I can agree with that, (Brooking+Jackson)-Peterson = 7th round comp pick, so then the final selections holding all else equal should be:

1)

3)

4)

4comp)

5)

5comp)

6)

7comp)

[Jaymadd]

I can agree with that, (Brooking+Jackson)-Peterson = 7th round comp pick, so then the final selections holding all else equal should be:

1)

3)

4)

4comp)

5)

5comp)

6)

7comp)

That sounds good to me, I will use this on my next Mock Draft