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Braves at Marlin


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Yeah, that's what the 8-2 post was about.

We're 2 games out in the wild card and 4 games out in the division.

People like to bring up that statistical calculator about playoff likelihood. Philadelphia has been at 99.9% in their division for about 3 weeks now. I wonder at what point they get dropped down from that.

ESPN just updated it.

Phillies now at 99.8%

Braves at 22.4%

Rockies at 77.7%

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Even if the Rockies sweep the Brewers or win 2/3, they have to play @ the Dodgers for 3 after that. The Rockies are 3-15 against the Dodgers this year, so I like our chances. We just have to keep believing in the Braves, that they will take care of business tomorrow and Wednesday, and then against the Nats after that. Also, Jason Marquis is pitching twice this week (tomorrow and Sunday, I think) and he hasn't been pitching well recently...

Oh yeah and we have to hope that the Dodgers don't clinch homefield advantage until they play the Rockies so that they won't have starters resting.

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With the Phillies at near certainty, how can the Rockies and Braves chances add up to over 100%?

ESPN updated it again:

Phillies 99.4

Rockies 77.7

Braves 22.7

the reason why the braves + rockies chances > then 100 is b/c 0.6 of the braves 22.7% chance represents scenarios where they win the east. This is evidenced by the fact that every other team in the East is eliminated and the phillies aren't at 100%. It's still possible that the braves win the east, the rockies win the wc, and the phillies win a seat in front of the tv at home.

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