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If you subscribe to NFL Insider you can simulate the weeks games. Im very confident going into this game.

The Patriots of 2009 look like the Colts in the early part of 2008 when Peyton Manning was coming off of surgery. Matt Ryan has started hot and he is nearly matching Tom Brady in both passer rating and TD passes. In other words, the Falcons passing game should be able to match the struggling Patriots even on the road. The Patriots are favored because their run defense is expected to contain Michael Turner who is averaging under 70 rushing yards per simulation. Turner is averaging just 3.4 ypc this season. However, if Turner can turn it on and averages over 5.0 ypc the Falcons go from the underdog to the favorite winning 51 percent.

Added info:

Bill Belichick's complex defensive schemes can be tough for young quarterbacks to contend with. His last opponent didn't appear intimidated, though, and Matt Ryan has no reason to be, either.

A week after a tough loss to a divisional opponent, Belichick and the New England Patriots will have their hands full against Ryan and the undefeated Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

With Tom Brady back at quarterback, New England (1-1) was expected to dominate the AFC East once again. Brady, however, struggled last Sunday and the Patriots had struggled against New York Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez in a 16-9 loss.

A young New England secondary couldn't make plays in the second half against Sanchez, who has been impressive in leading the Jets to the top of the division.

Now, the Patriots face a quarterback who is showing no signs of slowing down after an impressive first year. Ryan has thrown for five touchdowns against one interception, and the reigning NFL offensive rookie of the year now looks to lead Atlanta to its first 3-0 start since 2004.

"The kid looks like a polished NFL quarterback," Belichick said.

Two of the Falcons' touchdowns have been scored by tight end Tony Gonzalez, who appears to be Ryan's new favorite target. Gonzalez leads the team with 12 catches for 144 yards after being acquired in a trade with Kansas City in April.

"He's one of the greatest tight ends of all time," Ryan said. "That was a huge pickup for us. He makes big plays for us in different situations when we need him. I've enjoyed playing with him thus far."

New England's play against tight ends has been "probably average," according to defensive coordinator Dean Pees. The Patriots were hurt by a 9-yard TD pass to Jets tight end Dustin Keller in the second half of their last contest.

"Just overall we need to do a lot of things better: coaching, playing, offense, defense, special teams, big guys, skilled guys, you name it," Belichick said.

Brady wasn't expected to be a cause for concern, but he is coming off major knee surgery and appeared skittish in the pocket versus New York as New England was held without a TD for the first time in 42 games. The three-time Super Bowl champion was picked off once and completed 48.9 percent (23 for 47) of his passes for the Patriots, who were shut out in the second half.

Brady, however, was without Wes Welker (knee), who had 12 catches in Week 1 and a team-high 111 last season. Welker's status for Sunday is uncertain.

Julian Edelman caught eight passes as the third receiver and Joey Galloway had five receptions for 53 yards in place of Welker, but Randy Moss was limited to four catches for 24 yards.

A struggling running game didn't help. New England rushed for 83 yards after being limited to 73 in a 25-24 season-opening win over Buffalo on Sept. 14.

Against the Falcons, the Patriots may want to be more aggressive with their ground game. Atlanta surrendered 144 yards rushing to Carolina in a 28-20 win last Sunday and has a big hole to fill on the defensive line.

Rookie Peria Jerry, a first-round pick who was starting at tackle, suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Panthers. Thomas Johnson had not played in the NFL since 2006 until making the Falcons' roster, but he will move into a starting spot.

Atlanta also can move defensive end Chauncey Davis inside to give it the sort of quickness Jerry provided in passing situations.

"Anytime you lose somebody to an injury, it's very tough," Davis said. "But we just have to deal with it and keep moving on. Some other guys are going to have to step up and play a big part in our defense."

Jerry's loss hurts what already had been a defensive front lacking depth.

Vance Walker was signed off the practice squad to help replace Jerry. The Falcons also have Trey Lewis, but he has yet to play this season after missing all of 2008 with a knee injury.

In its last matchup with New England, Atlanta gave up 141 yards rushing as it lost 31-28 at home Oct. 9, 2005. Brady completed 22 of 27 for 350 yards and three TDs.

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After breaking down film of both teams, Scouts Inc. offers 10 things to watch in this week's Falcons-Patriots matchup.

1. Atlanta needs to get its playmakers the ball: The Falcons need to continue to spread the ball around to their most dangerous targets in the passing game. Offseason acquisition Tony Gonzalez has made his presence known early this season, as the Falcons have expanded their offense to include him often. Look for Gonzalez as well as Roddy White and Jerious Norwood to see lots of balls come their way.

2. Expect a balanced Atlanta ground attack: Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey will likely try to utilize his talented backs on downhill isolation plays as well as off tackle and perimeter schemes on the edges. Michael Turner is impressive between the tackles but Norwood could see more touches with his speed and burst to stretch the Patriots' defense.

3. Atlanta must tighten up its run defense: The Falcons have won despite not defending their opponents' running attack very well. Atlanta is allowing 120 yards per game at over 5 yards per carry. The Patriots will make a concerted effort to get their ground assault on track. We may see more interior stunts and zone-run blitzes to derail the Patriots' running game.

4. Look for more pressure packages from the Falcons: Tom Brady has played somewhat average through two games as he has been under duress often in the pocket. Atlanta defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder doesn't like to use many blitz schemes, but will likely dial up a variety of pressure packages in this contest to keep the Patriots' passing attack off balance.

5. Matchup to watch -- Falcons DE John Abraham vs. Patriots OT Matt Light: This should be an excellent battle between two athletic and crafty veterans who could have a huge impact in the game. Look for Abraham to utilize his great initial quickness to rush off the edge and a variety of counters to keep Light off balance. Light is an excellent technician who will need to keep Abraham at bay for Brady to work his magic.

6. New England must run the ball effectively: The Patriots' ground attack, which has been less than impressive through two games, will likely try to set the tempo of this game. The Pats have some talented backs who might be able to wear down a Falcons defense that has been average against the run and missing first-round defensive tackle Peria Jerry.

7. New England must keep Brady clean: Brady is outstanding when he can set his feet in the pocket, but he's been somewhat uncomfortable and unable to deliver the ball consistently downfield. Look for tighter line splits and possibly an extra blocker in pass protection to keep Brady in rhythm.

8. Mix schemes up for Atlanta QB Matt Ryan: Ryan has been one of the most accurate passers in the league so far and can burn a defense when he gets in a rhythm. Look for Bill Belichick to utilize multiple schemes to force Ryan into some errant throws and keep this very solid Falcons offense off balance.

9. Patriots will be heavy on run-stopping schemes: The Patriots' defense needs to make the Falcons put the ball in the air. The success of Atlanta's offense focuses around a physical ground attack and New England will likely utilize more eight-man fronts, interior stunts and zone run blitzes to derail the physical running style of Turner.

10. Matchup to watch -- Patriots WR Randy Moss vs. Falcons CB Chris Houston: Moss has been relatively quiet thus far and was almost shut down in the Patriots' Week 2 loss to the Jets. He has an obvious size advantage on Houston, and we can look for this matchup to be exploited by New England's offensive staff

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If you subscribe to NFL Insider you can simulate the weeks games. Im very confident going into this game.

The Patriots of 2009 look like the Colts in the early part of 2008 when Peyton Manning was coming off of surgery. Matt Ryan has started hot and he is nearly matching Tom Brady in both passer rating and TD passes. In other words, the Falcons passing game should be able to match the struggling Patriots even on the road. The Patriots are favored because their run defense is expected to contain Michael Turner who is averaging under 70 rushing yards per simulation. Turner is averaging just 3.4 ypc this season. However, if Turner can turn it on and averages over 5.0 ypc the Falcons go from the underdog to the favorite winning 51 percent.

Does the simulation take the weather into account?

Is that why Turner's yards make so much difference--or is it just in general he needs a better game?

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I did another one, This time included rain,

Matt Ryan 2 or more touchdowns

Michael Turner 125 or more rushing yards

Tony Gonzalez 1 or more receiving touchdowns

Atlanta defense 250 or more yards allowed

Tom Brady 0 interceptions or less

New England defense 250 or more yards allowed

New England defense 2 or more sacks

Weather Rain/Snow

Falcons 31

Patriots 26

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I did another one, This time included rain,

Matt Ryan 2 or more touchdowns

Michael Turner 125 or more rushing yards

Tony Gonzalez 1 or more receiving touchdowns

Atlanta defense 250 or more yards allowed

Tom Brady 0 interceptions or less

New England defense 250 or more yards allowed

New England defense 2 or more sacks

Weather Rain/Snow

Falcons 31

Patriots 26

Thanks!

So everything stayed the same except rain?

And if so, did the probability increase over 51% ?

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