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We all knew Ryan was money on 3rd and long, but how money was he?


califalcfan
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During the Michael Vick era and whenever I watch the 49ers, 3rd and long seems like a situation that was too difficult for the offense to overcome. The QB would always end up throwing underneath for some yards without getting the 1st down to continue the drive. Things all changed when Matt Ryan took over the QB position and I found myself looking forward to 3rd and long situations, as weird as that may seem. Now that I have looked up some statistics, it makes sense why I looked forward to it. The following are statistics from QBs around the league (and in different seasons) on 3rd and 8+.

Top QBs: Here are the top passers in the NFL and how they fared on 3rd and long in their most recent full season.

Peyton Manning (2008): 43/66 [65%], 539 yards [8.2 YPA]

Tom Brady (2007): 32/51 [63%], 510 yards [10.0 YPA]

Drew Brees (2008): 40/61 [66%], 610 yards [10.0 YPA]

Philip Rivers (2008): 40/63 [63%], 505 yards [8.0 YPA]

Kurt Warner (2008): 38/60 [63%], 437 yards [7.3 YPA]

-Obviously great numbers all around to keep their respective offenses (all among the best in the league) going on long drives.Drew Brees leads the pack in comp. % and yards per attempt, which makes sense; he is brilliant.

Rookie QBs: 3rd and long is almost a certain failure if you are a rookie QB faced against a known passing situation. The pass rush turns up a notch, blitzes galore, and the secondary needs to make sure they don't give up a big play.

Ben Roethlisberger (2004): 23/44 [52%], 317 yards [7.2 YPA]

Joe Flacco (2008): 40/69 [58%], 517 yards [7.5 YPA]

Peyton Manning (1998): 40/83 [48%], 561 yards [6.8 YPA]

-Those 3 QBs probably put up 3 of the top 5 rookie QB seasons and they struggled immensely on 3rd and long. Joe Flacco seemed to be the best of this pack with some pretty impressive numbers (he should be a very very solid QB).

Michael Vick: Everytime we faced a 3rd and long with Vick at helm, we might as well have given up. He was not going to read defenses to exploit them and 8+ yards was too much for his legs.

Michael Vick (2002): 22/52 [42%], 466 yards [9.0 YPA], 15 attempts for 95 rushing yards [6.3 YPC]

-In his best passing season, he couldn't complete 50% of his passes on 3rd and long and didn't have overly impressive rushing numbers either.

Matt Ryan: And now for the grand finale. You have seen all the numbers from certain QBs around the league, some of which were impressive from the top QBs and some poor from the struggles of rookie QBs and our previous QB, Vick. Here are Ryan's numbers on 3rd and 8+.

Matt Ryan (2008): 48/74 [65%], 802 yards [10.8 YPA]

-Wow. No wonder I loved 3rd and long. His comp. % jumps by 4 and YPA jumps nearly 3 full yards. When you compare him to all the QBs mentioned in the thread, he has the 2nd best comp. percentage (with the 2nd highest pass attempts on 3rd and longs) and the highest yards per attempt. He is only going to get better on this crucial down with the addition of Tony Gonzalez; our drives will continue with Ryan's play on 3rd downs and we will control the clock to keep our defense off the field.

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During the Michael Vick era and whenever I watch the 49ers, 3rd and long seems like a situation that was too difficult for the offense to overcome. The QB would always end up throwing underneath for some yards without getting the 1st down to continue the drive. Things all changed when Matt Ryan took over the QB position and I found myself looking forward to 3rd and long situations, as weird as that may seem. Now that I have looked up some statistics, it makes sense why I looked forward to it. The following are statistics from QBs around the league (and in different seasons) on 3rd and 8+.

Top QBs: Here are the top passers in the NFL and how they fared on 3rd and long in their most recent full season.

Peyton Manning (2008): 43/66 [65%], 539 yards [8.2 YPA]

Tom Brady (2007): 32/51 [63%], 510 yards [10.0 YPA]

Drew Brees (2008): 40/61 [66%], 610 yards [10.0 YPA]

Philip Rivers (2008): 40/63 [63%], 505 yards [8.0 YPA]

Kurt Warner (2008): 38/60 [63%], 437 yards [7.3 YPA]

-Obviously great numbers all around to keep their respective offenses (all among the best in the league) going on long drives.Drew Brees leads the pack in comp. % and yards per attempt, which makes sense; he is brilliant.

Rookie QBs: 3rd and long is almost a certain failure if you are a rookie QB faced against a known passing situation. The pass rush turns up a notch, blitzes galore, and the secondary needs to make sure they don't give up a big play.

Ben Roethlisberger (2004): 23/44 [52%], 317 yards [7.2 YPA]

Joe Flacco (2008): 40/69 [58%], 517 yards [7.5 YPA]

Peyton Manning (1998): 40/83 [48%], 561 yards [6.8 YPA]

-Those 3 QBs probably put up 3 of the top 5 rookie QB seasons and they struggled immensely on 3rd and long. Joe Flacco seemed to be the best of this pack with some pretty impressive numbers (he should be a very very solid QB).

Michael Vick: Everytime we faced a 3rd and long with Vick at helm, we might as well have given up. He was not going to read defenses to exploit them and 8+ yards was too much for his legs.

Michael Vick (2002): 22/52 [42%], 466 yards [9.0 YPA], 15 attempts for 95 rushing yards [6.3 YPC]

-In his best passing season, he couldn't complete 50% of his passes on 3rd and long and didn't have overly impressive rushing numbers either.

Matt Ryan: And now for the grand finale. You have seen all the numbers from certain QBs around the league, some of which were impressive from the top QBs and some poor from the struggles of rookie QBs and our previous QB, Vick. Here are Ryan's numbers on 3rd and 8+.

Matt Ryan (2008): 48/74 [65%], 802 yards [10.8 YPA]

-Wow. No wonder I loved 3rd and long. His comp. % jumps by 4 and YPA jumps nearly 3 full yards. When you compare him to all the QBs mentioned in the thread, he has the 2nd best comp. percentage (with the 2nd highest pass attempts on 3rd and longs) and the highest yards per attempt. He is only going to get better on this crucial down with the addition of Tony Gonzalez; our drives will continue with Ryan's play on 3rd downs and we will control the clock to keep our defense off the field.

Um..OK.

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i was the same way on 3rd and longs. not that i wanted to be in 3rd and long because i didn't want to be in 3rd and anything but ryan was AMAZING on 3rd downs. by midseason whenever we got into 3rd and long i always felt we would convert.

He flat out killed the Packers at Lambeau last year with those 3rd and long conversions. I couldn't believe what I was seeing.

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Where did you get these stats because I've been looking for them. I've always said that Ryan's TD/Yards numbers are meaningless compared to his 3rd down passing stats. His ability to sustain drives is what broke defenses spirit in college and it seemed like that last year, too, but I couldn't confirm it. Anyway, I'll personally be following these numbers a lot more than the glory stats like QB Rating.

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Where did you get these stats because I've been looking for them. I've always said that Ryan's TD/Yards numbers are meaningless compared to his 3rd down passing stats. His ability to sustain drives is what broke defenses spirit in college and it seemed like that last year, too, but I couldn't confirm it. Anyway, I'll personally be following these numbers a lot more than the glory stats like QB Rating.

Try this:

Link

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Where did you get these stats because I've been looking for them. I've always said that Ryan's TD/Yards numbers are meaningless compared to his 3rd down passing stats. His ability to sustain drives is what broke defenses spirit in college and it seemed like that last year, too, but I couldn't confirm it. Anyway, I'll personally be following these numbers a lot more than the glory stats like QB Rating.

Go to Ryan's page on any of the major sports websites- ESPN, CNNSI, or NFL..COM, and click on splits. I like the CNNSI's the best.

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