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A TDWII Draft Day Trade Scenario....


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As I mentioned in my most recent post, I’m really not enamored with the #24 pick. We certainly could get a good player there; I like Evander Hood here potentially. But you might be able to get him 10 picks later. Maybe/maybe not, but at the end of the day, there isn’t a lot of differentiation here for us at our positions of interest/need (other than TE). But I think there might be a scenario out there that makes sense for the Falcons (and other parties involved) where we would be able to move down.

The team involved: The New England Patriots

So let’s look at the Patriots for a second. They have a large number of picks by virtue of their trade of Matt Cassel and a 2008 draft day trade with San Diego (not to mention their 3rd round compensatory pick for losing Asante Samuel). So they have the following picks:

#23

#34

#47

#58

#89

#97

What’s interesting about this is the fact that the Falcons had this very draft pick line-up heading into the 2008 draft (1 1st rounder, 3 2nd rounders, 2 3rd rounders). What we know is that the Falcons traded up into Round 1.

IMO, part of the reason trade up/trade down scenarios don’t come to fruition often is because the team trading up usually is giving up one draft pick, hence one player. So, I don’t think this would be a situation where we would receive an extra draft pick. Rather, we would simply improve our draft positioning (and ability to make another deal).

How I see the draft playing out and why New England will want to trade up:

1) When the #23 pick comes along, Knowshon Moreno will still be available.

The Patriots RB’s are as follows:

Sammy Morris (32)

Kevin Faulk (33)

Fred Taylor (33)

Laurence Maroney (24)

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (24)

Not a youthful contingent although Belichick is a master of defining roles for situational RB’s. He’s gotten more out of players like Morris, Faulk and Antowain Smith than other coaches probably would have. But in large part, he’s had to do that the last few years because of Laurence Maroney’s inability to ascend to ‘bellcow’ status.

Fred Taylor is a typical Patriots signing, but at the end of the day, their RB situation long-term looks bleak. Maroney is dealing with his 2nd shoulder injury in 3 professional seasons and Belichick has not been pleased with his physicality when he has been on the field. Green-Ellis showed flashes of being a contributor his rookie season, but that’s about it.

2) When the #23 pick comes along, Clay Matthews Jr. will still be available.

The Patriots with the exception of Jerod Mayo & Gary Guyton (maybe Shawn Crable) are very thin at young LB talent and depth. If there is one part of their defense they will probably look to address early this year, it’s going to be replenishing that position. Jerod Mayo was about as good a start you could make in that direction. Shawn Crable though who they drafted in Round 3 last year was a non-factor before going on IR in November. Guyton was a nice surprise contributing situationally. But when you are resorting to re-signing Tully Banta-Cain (who busted with SF) as OLB depth, you can stand to fortify this area.

While his draft seems to be pretty deep in 3-4 LB talent (Clint Sintim and Connor Barwin also look like they could man that stand-up OLB rush role), Matthews has clearly emerged this past year as the best prospect at this position.

The Trade:

When the Patriots selection comes up at #23, they’ll have multiple options. Options that even though they are picking 11 spots later would most likely not be there. And so…

The Atlanta Falcons trade the #24 & #90 selections in the NFL draft, for the #34 & #58 selections in the NFL draft.

As such, the Patriots get another piece that fits perfectly in their transitioning but defensive rebuilding project in addition to a bellcow RB that fits the Belichick mold. Having Fred Taylor allows the Patriots the flexibility to ease Moreno into the NFL game and put him into advantageous situations rather than having to rely on him to carry the load. In 2010, they can hand him the keys to the running game.

Why the Falcons make the deal:

You might be asking “Why would the Falcons trade down if it doesn’t net them an extra pick?”. Fair question. The reason though as I read the tea leaves is as follows.

I think the Chiefs are balking at trading Tony Gonzalez for a 2nd rounder. Not necessarily any 2nd rounder though, but specifically the Falcons 2nd rounder. It’s not the Falcons fault they only have the #55 pick in Round 2, but not all 2nd round picks are created equal and there is a big difference between #55 and say #34. The Falcons on the other hand could not justify giving up their 1st rounder for Gonzalez and thus, we have an impasse of sorts. However, now the Falcons have 3 2nd round picks (#34, #55, #58).

As such, the Falcons will turn around and give the Chiefs back the #34 pick in the draft (the one the Chiefs traded for Matt Cassel in the first place) and a pick with significantly more trade and overall value for Tony Gonzalez and the 139th selection (the Chiefs 5th rounder).

As such, the Falcons will have the #55 & #58 picks in the draft in addition to acquiring a go-to TE. That said, they will not have a 3rd round pick. Upon the completion of this trade the Falcons will have the following selections:

#55

#58

#125

#138

#139

#143

#176

I know the Gonzalez issue strikes a cord with many of us because we don’t like the idea of trading away a potential young stud for a player (albeit one who is still performing at a top level) who probably has 3 years left in a best case scenario.

But Dimitroff realizes that his defense is a multi-year rebuilding effort and the best way to improve the team at this juncture is to add the one certain weapon that can have an impact on wins and losses on the offensive side of the ball not to mention, help in the development of his franchise building block. Even if the Falcons were to draft Brandon Pettigrew, this years top TE, it’s debatable how much effect and impact he would have in the passing game. Maybe a lot, more likely though limited. Gonzalez though requires defensive consideration at all times. And as such, Dimitroff makes the move while still maintaining an ability to acquire young defensive talent, and rely on his scouting department to unearth the same level of quality players they did last year.

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As such, the Falcons will have the #55 & #58 picks in the draft in addition to acquiring a go-to TE. That said, they will not have a 3rd round pick. Upon the completion of this trade the Falcons will have the following selections:

#55

#58

#125

#138

#139

#143

#176

I like it alot!

As long as someone like Lawrence Sidbury is there at # 55 and a Mike Mickens at #58.

After that, grab a LB, a safety, a couple run stopping DT's and an OT. Perfect!

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i think that people are making way to much about gonzo's age on these boards. the guy is in excellent physical condition and takes care of him self probably better than anyone in the league today. he eats no meat and is on a very strict diet to maintain his top physical condition. so he may have alot more years left in the tank than people are thinking despite his age. but that's only my opinion.

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I personally don't like this senario one bit. First of all you mention that our scouting dept can unearth the same level of talent as last year, however we need starters. Our three starters from last years' draft were all selected by the 37th pick, in your senario we don't pick until 55.

We would have missed out on the top 3 DT's, the USC linebackers as well as Laurinaitis, the top tier corners & Delmas will also have gone.

Also it was mentioned several times when the Cassel trade went through that Belichick loves 2nd rounders (apparently the reason they turned down the 3 way trade with Denver & Tamp Bay) as they are deemed better value in respect of guaranteed money. I don't understand the fascination in many of the mock drafts on these boards to assume that the Pats would move up when they are the masters of moving down and gaining extra picks.

Also #34 for Gonzalez! The talk last year was the Chiefs were looking for a 3rd rounder. Why would we pay more for a 33yr old (albeit a future HOF), than the Bucs paid for K2.

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Well I like the idea, but I do think if the Patriots trade up for the 24th pick they will either Target trading that #24 pick to Carolina for Julius Peppers.

Then Carolina will either go for Michael Johnson of GT at DE or for Ziggy Hood DT of Missouri because they need Defensive line help in a bad way.

The way I see it and if I was TD I would add the two second round picks, and give the Patriots a 2010 Third Round pick to make it fair.

I would then ask Kansas City if they want the middle of the second round for Tony Gonzalez in return they have to switch picks in the third round. If they dont bite then I draft my three second round picks.............................

The Falcons then would have either options.........

#34 pick in the second round ( Pick Best LB or DE available)

#47 pick in the second round ( Duke Robinson Guard Oklahoma)

#55 pick in the second round ( William Moore Missouri Safety, or Patrick Vaughn Wake Forrest Safety)

#67 pick in the Third round ( Chase Coffman TE Missouri) or Shawn Nelson TE Southern Miss

#125 pick in the fourth round ( Bradley Fletcher CB Iowa) or CB Mike Mickens Cinci

#138 pick in the fifth round (DT Roy Miller Texas

#160 pick in the fifth round (WR Aaron Kelly Clemson)

#176 pick in the fifth round Best available player

Or subsitute Tony Gonzalez for the Duke Robinson #47 pick from KC with trade

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As I mentioned in my most recent post, I’m really not enamored with the #24 pick. We certainly could get a good player there; I like Evander Hood here potentially. But you might be able to get him 10 picks later. Maybe/maybe not, but at the end of the day, there isn’t a lot of differentiation here for us at our positions of interest/need (other than TE). But I think there might be a scenario out there that makes sense for the Falcons (and other parties involved) where we would be able to move down.

The team involved: The New England Patriots

So let’s look at the Patriots for a second. They have a large number of picks by virtue of their trade of Matt Cassel and a 2008 draft day trade with San Diego (not to mention their 3rd round compensatory pick for losing Asante Samuel). So they have the following picks:

#23

#34

#47

#58

#89

#97

What’s interesting about this is the fact that the Falcons had this very draft pick line-up heading into the 2008 draft (1 1st rounder, 3 2nd rounders, 2 3rd rounders). What we know is that the Falcons traded up into Round 1.

IMO, part of the reason trade up/trade down scenarios don’t come to fruition often is because the team trading up usually is giving up one draft pick, hence one player. So, I don’t think this would be a situation where we would receive an extra draft pick. Rather, we would simply improve our draft positioning (and ability to make another deal).

How I see the draft playing out and why New England will want to trade up:

1) When the #23 pick comes along, Knowshon Moreno will still be available.

The Patriots RB’s are as follows:

Sammy Morris (32)

Kevin Faulk (33)

Fred Taylor (33)

Laurence Maroney (24)

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (24)

Not a youthful contingent although Belichick is a master of defining roles for situational RB’s. He’s gotten more out of players like Morris, Faulk and Antowain Smith than other coaches probably would have. But in large part, he’s had to do that the last few years because of Laurence Maroney’s inability to ascend to ‘bellcow’ status.

Fred Taylor is a typical Patriots signing, but at the end of the day, their RB situation long-term looks bleak. Maroney is dealing with his 2nd shoulder injury in 3 professional seasons and Belichick has not been pleased with his physicality when he has been on the field. Green-Ellis showed flashes of being a contributor his rookie season, but that’s about it.

2) When the #23 pick comes along, Clay Matthews Jr. will still be available.

The Patriots with the exception of Jerod Mayo & Gary Guyton (maybe Shawn Crable) are very thin at young LB talent and depth. If there is one part of their defense they will probably look to address early this year, it’s going to be replenishing that position. Jerod Mayo was about as good a start you could make in that direction. Shawn Crable though who they drafted in Round 3 last year was a non-factor before going on IR in November. Guyton was a nice surprise contributing situationally. But when you are resorting to re-signing Tully Banta-Cain (who busted with SF) as OLB depth, you can stand to fortify this area.

While his draft seems to be pretty deep in 3-4 LB talent (Clint Sintim and Connor Barwin also look like they could man that stand-up OLB rush role), Matthews has clearly emerged this past year as the best prospect at this position.

The Trade:

When the Patriots selection comes up at #23, they’ll have multiple options. Options that even though they are picking 11 spots later would most likely not be there. And so…

The Atlanta Falcons trade the #24 & #90 selections in the NFL draft, for the #34 & #58 selections in the NFL draft.

As such, the Patriots get another piece that fits perfectly in their transitioning but defensive rebuilding project in addition to a bellcow RB that fits the Belichick mold. Having Fred Taylor allows the Patriots the flexibility to ease Moreno into the NFL game and put him into advantageous situations rather than having to rely on him to carry the load. In 2010, they can hand him the keys to the running game.

Why the Falcons make the deal:

You might be asking “Why would the Falcons trade down if it doesn’t net them an extra pick?”. Fair question. The reason though as I read the tea leaves is as follows.

I think the Chiefs are balking at trading Tony Gonzalez for a 2nd rounder. Not necessarily any 2nd rounder though, but specifically the Falcons 2nd rounder. It’s not the Falcons fault they only have the #55 pick in Round 2, but not all 2nd round picks are created equal and there is a big difference between #55 and say #34. The Falcons on the other hand could not justify giving up their 1st rounder for Gonzalez and thus, we have an impasse of sorts. However, now the Falcons have 3 2nd round picks (#34, #55, #58).

As such, the Falcons will turn around and give the Chiefs back the #34 pick in the draft (the one the Chiefs traded for Matt Cassel in the first place) and a pick with significantly more trade and overall value for Tony Gonzalez and the 139th selection (the Chiefs 5th rounder).

As such, the Falcons will have the #55 & #58 picks in the draft in addition to acquiring a go-to TE. That said, they will not have a 3rd round pick. Upon the completion of this trade the Falcons will have the following selections:

#55

#58

#125

#138

#139

#143

#176

I know the Gonzalez issue strikes a cord with many of us because we don’t like the idea of trading away a potential young stud for a player (albeit one who is still performing at a top level) who probably has 3 years left in a best case scenario.

But Dimitroff realizes that his defense is a multi-year rebuilding effort and the best way to improve the team at this juncture is to add the one certain weapon that can have an impact on wins and losses on the offensive side of the ball not to mention, help in the development of his franchise building block. Even if the Falcons were to draft Brandon Pettigrew, this years top TE, it’s debatable how much effect and impact he would have in the passing game. Maybe a lot, more likely though limited. Gonzalez though requires defensive consideration at all times. And as such, Dimitroff makes the move while still maintaining an ability to acquire young defensive talent, and rely on his scouting department to unearth the same level of quality players they did last year.

I was with you on the trade right up to the point that you brought Gonzo back into the story........At #55 overall, the Falcons would already be overpaying slightly for Gonzo - to orchestrate a trade with New England simply to give KC an even higher 2nd round pick is preposterous. Besides, its always a bad idea to "bid against yourself" - no other team has been even rumored to be making a move for Gonzo - why would we "theoretically" up the "rumored offer"(which is not even really an offer - its a rumor!) of Falcons #55 overall?

This is just plain dumb in my opinion - not bashing you "Dirty Word" because you usually post high quality analysis - but not this time in my opinion.

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I personally don't like this senario one bit. First of all you mention that our scouting dept can unearth the same level of talent as last year, however we need starters. Our three starters from last years' draft were all selected by the 37th pick, in your senario we don't pick until 55.

We would have missed out on the top 3 DT's, the USC linebackers as well as Laurinaitis, the top tier corners & Delmas will also have gone.

Also it was mentioned several times when the Cassel trade went through that Belichick loves 2nd rounders (apparently the reason they turned down the 3 way trade with Denver & Tamp Bay) as they are deemed better value in respect of guaranteed money. I don't understand the fascination in many of the mock drafts on these boards to assume that the Pats would move up when they are the masters of moving down and gaining extra picks.

Also #34 for Gonzalez! The talk last year was the Chiefs were looking for a 3rd rounder. Why would we pay more for a 33yr old (albeit a future HOF), than the Bucs paid for K2.

Honestly, with the amount of surgeries/injureis Winslow has had, it's not preposterous to think that over the next 3 years, Gonazelez will come out better than him. As talented as Winslow is, he simply has had difficulty staying healthy. Gonzalez has missed 2 games in 11 years. Winslow has missed 36 games in his 5 year career and surpassed 1000 yards and 4 TD's once. What Gonzalez did in 2008, Winslow has NEVER done.

It's one thing to trade for a receiver mid-year when there is no time for the QB, particularly a young QB, to develop a chemistry with. It's another thing to give him an entire off-season to work with him.

As for the Pats, having 6 picks in the first 3 rounds allows the Patriots options. It's one thing to acquire picks, but it's another to use them. The Patriots will move both up and down in the draft...not just down.

My picks for the Falcons at #55 & #58:

Rashad Johnson

Jarron Gilbert

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