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matthew stafford and knowshonmoreno


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we all did. just about everybody but MSalmon was hating on matt ryan including me and you. i changed my tune after i saw the game tape but the point still remains most of us were really down on him for a while, not just jidady.

bradford is extremely accurate, i just dont see him make a lot of nfl throws when i watch tape of him. not as far as arm strength or accuracy, but as far as anticipation, making good reads and throwing to the receiver before he is open, not after. bradford does a lot of throwing to receivers after they are already open, and that is very concerning.

Thanks for the prop :D But you are right, and i could have missed on Ryan had i not been obsessive in watching his game. I'm with you on the Bradford pick. I like him. I like his size, but the really wide open offense and shotgun style almost always concerns me. The OU offense is almost Hawaiish (remember Colt). The big difference btwn Colt and Bradford is that Bradford is tough and has nice size. Another area of concern with Bradford is that OU under Stoops has produced big numbers for alll QBs--granted Bradford's numbers are the best, but you almost get a feeling that the OU offense is the second coming of Spurrier--produces huge college numbers for QBs and WRs in college that don't translate to pros

The difference made Ryan stand out were: 1) lack of cast 2) Threw 654 times and had 5 wrs (including a rb) with 50+ catches and the pro set offense ran by him in college while learniing on the fly (the system was installed his senior season) 3) and the number of deep outs and seam passes that he threw too--very pro plays.

I'm not seeing that type of offense at OU. You see spread.

If i had to pick the best prospect right now I gotta go with Matt Stafford. And unless Bradford just seriously shines at the combine, i'm sticking with Bradford. He's got a huge arm, his accuracy and touch has improved every year so he's coachable, he's got great size and mobility.

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I appreciate your defending me, but do me a favor. I have the troll on ignore after I got tired of seeing him name-call and behave like a six-year-old.

I just don't see how a guy can be this accurate and have it not be a deep-set reflection of his understanding scheme and structure. If you look at his completion percentages this year, it's...well, it's historically unprecedented. He's had 77%, 76%, 85%, 56%, 74%, 71%, 68%, 41%, 70%, 67%, 74%, 68% and 69%. So, he's Kansas State away from having a flawless season in terms of completion percentage and it's not dink and dunk stuff, either. His career yards per attempt is almost 10. I think that a lot of people are going to nitpick Bradford because it's human nature to think that no one can be THAT good. Using every empirical evaluation of him possible, however, he is. I mentioned it last season, I said it after four games this year and I'm saying it again now. I kept waiting for him to come back down to Earth, but he never did. This is just who he is.

lol ill see what i can do. and no problem. just trying to set the record straight.

anyways, i realize that bradford is playing out of his mind and i will never debate the fact that he is one of the best college football players weve seen in a while. but im not sold on those numbers translating to the NFL. i know he isnt dinking and dunking because ive watched him play a lot this year (initially it was to watch loadholt but that quickly nauseated me and so i paid attention to bradford instead after the first 3 games) and he does go down the field a lot and he does get the ball to his wrs with room to get YAC. he has tons of talent around him which certainly helps, but the problems i have with him are staring down his primary receivers (which he often does) and waiting for them to get open. he gets away with it a lot of times because of his fantastic accuracy, but in the NFL that isnt going to cut it as you well know. he waits for his recievers to get open and THEN throws it quite a bit and that also wont transition well to the NFL.

i think i kind of learned my lesson in looking into the stats too much last year when i was convinced brohm was the sh*t and i couldnt stand ryan. if i remember correctly that is how you felt too. i realize that bradford is putting up crazy numbers but in the end i think the learning curve will be too steep for him to be worth that high pick UNLESS he gets 2+ years to develop. and asking a team to sit you that long to learn an offense well enough to step in and not fail like alex smith has is just too much to ask. im sure he will be drafted high next year or he will drop like brohm did probably if he stays all 4 years. maybe then he will end up being good. i just dont think his game transitions well to the NFL. to me he almost seems like a better version of brohm with more talent around him. his accuracy is remarkable and he has crazy numbers, but that doesnt mean much when it comes to making it in the NFL. i think he has it between the ears (he picked up this offense quite quickly) which means that to me the footwork and drop backs will come with time, but the thing that will take the longest time is learning to make good progressions and not just stare down one reciever like he so often does.

i dont think he has as high a football IQ as matt ryan does, which means that im not sure he can sit for a year and be ready to play like i think stafford will be able to (should bradford declare this year). i just think there are too many things against him, which is a shame because hes a terrific college qb.

Even if you take off 25% from his stats, they're still mind-boggling.

The pro style offense debate is one that is going to continue indefinitely as the college game continues to evolve in terms of novelty offenses while the pros remain conventional. I cede that being in a pro style offense is an asset for pro prospect over the spread. I also have been first in line to acknowledge that Stafford's physical tools are outstanding. The problem is that for all his hype and tools, he's not been that great a college player.

Stafford has a pedestrian career completion percentage of 57%. He has a mediocre career passer rating of 132. His college TDs to INTs ratio is only 1.5 (48 TDs versus 32 INTs). Even if we didn't acknowledge the gameday threads littered with frustrated Georgia fans who don't believe he's done what he should, there would still be a simple elephant in the living room with Stafford. He's not been as good in the same system as David Greene was, and Greene washed out in the pros. Greene was at least a winner. Stafford has underachieved despite having much more surrounding talent. Stafford is one of those tools guys whose skillset blinds scouts about the player he actually is. I'd draft him in the middle rounds as a developmental player, but he's certainly not worthy of a high draft pick.

i really think you might be keying in on the stats too much. i realize that is about as accurate a way as you can determine a guys production, but it certainly doesnt distinguish the good from the bad when it comes to NFL QB's. what i see when i see stafford is a guy who has 3 years of starting experience, he has significantly improved every year, he has great arm strength, good size and improving accuracy. he has some flaws like occasionally forcing throws into coverage (that sounds familiar coming from me, lol), not always stepping into his deep throws leading to inaccurate passes and i dont think he moves around well in the pocket (as far as side-stepping to avoid the rush to by more time for example).

my thinking is that i really dont see anything there that cant be improved upon with a good QB coach in the NFL. he will learn to always step into his deep throws, i havent seen more than a couple throws a game in the tapes ive watched of him where he forced a bad pass into coverage. almost every time he makes a mistake i can see why he made it. for example against alabama before the half he threw an interception when he was trying to hit mo-mass on a skinny post. if you dont rewatch the play you are thinking: wow, stupid mistake. but if you look at it again and just focus on stafford you would see that he scanned the field and saw that mo-mass was going to be open and was ready to throw it but a DT (or a defensive lineman, i cant remember which guy broke through) got penetration up the middle and broke the pocket forcing stafford to roll out to buy more time. he threw it (forcing the pass) but by the time he had escaped enough to set up and throw the window had closed and the safety had found his way over to make a play on the ball. he made the right read and if the RG or RT doesnt get abused on that play it is either first and goal inside the 10 or it is a touchdown because stafford had it read perfectly and was ready to fire a laser 30 yards downfield. however, because of poor pass blocking he had to roll out and when he tried to throw it after he was already open (a problem i have with bradford, this doesnt work against good defenses) it got intercepted. should he have thrown it? probably not, but if he has 1-2 more seconds of time to step into that throw even if he takes a shot after it that is a huge play before the half and i think georgia might have come back in that game. stafford was great in the second half if i remember correctly (id have to go check my notes but my laptop isnt working).

all in all, i refuse to put too much stock into stats this year. im relying on the tape and i really like what i see from stafford. it will take work to continue to improve his accuracy, to make sure he steps into deep throws, to help make sure he doesnt force throws into coverage often(he has shown a lot of maturity by throwing the ball away at times this year, you dont always see that from college qbs) and perhaps most importantly i want to see him learn to buy time in the pocket without scrambling outside the tackles. can he do that? absolutely, and with a good qb coach i think he will. the one thing i dont think he will ever learn to do is be a good leader. he doesnt have that special leadership ability that is the difference between a good qb and a great qb. matt ryan, brett favre, peyton manning, etc. all have that. guys that are just good qbs dont have it, and i dont think stafford does. does that mean he will bust in the NFL? i dont think so. but i dont think he will ever be great. i think he will be good though. thats why i dont like people telling me hes a franchise qb, because even though he can lead his team back late in games i just dont think he has that fire that ryan has.

anyways, thats my rant on stafford.

-Mr. Offseason

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Thanks for the prop :D But you are right, and i could have missed on Ryan had i not been obsessive in watching his game. I'm with you on the Bradford pick. I like him. I like his size, but the really wide open offense and shotgun style almost always concerns me. The OU offense is almost Hawaiish (remember Colt). The big difference btwn Colt and Bradford is that Bradford is tough and has nice size. Another area of concern with Bradford is that OU under Stoops has produced big numbers for alll QBs--granted Bradford's numbers are the best, but you almost get a feeling that the OU offense is the second coming of Spurrier--produces huge college numbers for QBs and WRs in college that don't translate to pros

The difference made Ryan stand out were: 1) lack of cast 2) Threw 654 times and had 5 wrs (including a rb) with 50+ catches and the pro set offense ran by him in college while learniing on the fly (the system was installed his senior season) 3) and the number of deep outs and seam passes that he threw too--very pro plays.

I'm not seeing that type of offense at OU. You see spread.

If i had to pick the best prospect right now I gotta go with Matt Stafford. And unless Bradford just seriously shines at the combine, i'm sticking with Bradford. He's got a huge arm, his accuracy and touch has improved every year so he's coachable, he's got great size and mobility.

dude no problem. i dont think ive ever been so wrong in my life. and i know i gave you more than your fair share of flak for supporting ryan all that time. probably in every mock you made and every thread you started. so you deserve it. any time anyone says "everyone here hated matt ryan" the first thing that pops into my head is "yeah, everyone but MSalmon" and if theres any debate about it i post that. you definately deserve it.

yeah i completely agree with you. remember their heisman winner white? he was a complete bust in the NFL. i definately like bradford better than him, but he ran the same offense and won a heisman in that same program... so im just saying.

and i think you typed bradford when you meant stafford once or twice but i know what youre trying to say. and i really wish i could see stafford and bradford at the senior bowl even though they wouldnt be seniors. that would be very helpful to see them in practice and also in the game, etc. but i doubt we will get to see that since i expect that stafford will declare this year. but im glad were on the same page on this one, i know we had some pretty long-winded arguments about ryan and the other qbs last year.

-Mr. Offseason

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Nail on head.

Stafford whether you love or hate the guy can make every and I mean EVERY NFL throw. No one else in this draft class can come close to that. He's used to lining up under center, making reads and executing a style of offense that every NFL team employs. To say he's not worth a top 5 pick is dumb. Sure he has some holes in his game as does everyone else. It's the potential that everyone looks at. He's got more of it than any other QB.

100% correct.. he is definately worth a top 5 pick..

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. he has tons of talent around him which certainly helps, but the problems i have with him are staring down his primary receivers (which he often does) and waiting for them to get open. he gets away with it a lot of times because of his fantastic accuracy, but in the NFL that isnt going to cut it as you well know. he waits for his recievers to get open and THEN throws it quite a bit and that also wont transition well to the NFL.

As far as coachable issues go, the staring down of receivers is problematic. That's hard to untrain. When to throw the ball, on the other hand, is easily coachable. In fact, there was a Matt Ryan quote flying around about six weeks into the season about how he corrected that issue. During early camps, he had several veteran receivers concerned because of this. His problem stemmed from not appreciating how good his own WRs as well as opposing DBs were. After several chats about this, he started trusting his instincts and getting the ball out of his hand quicker. Given how insanely accurate Bradford is (he's like the Green Arrow), that's not a criticism that concerns me.

i think i kind of learned my lesson in looking into the stats too much last year when i was convinced brohm was the sh*t and i couldnt stand ryan. if i remember correctly that is how you felt too.

I'm always going to focus on stats and personal evaluations when I make determinations on players. In hindsight, the one thing I'd like to have back on Ryan is the idea that he was making his entire team better. Every year, there are half a dozen guys who get that compliment, and it's almost never right. Ryan, like Brett Favre at Southern Miss, is the rare example where it really happened. Given how impossible that is to quantify and just how rarely it happens, I'm not going to change my evaluation principles over something I think we all realize is fluke-ish in nature.

i just dont think his game transitions well to the NFL. to me he almost seems like a better version of brohm with more talent around him. his accuracy is remarkable and he has crazy numbers, but that doesnt mean much when it comes to making it in the NFL.

I think that you're reading far too much into Brohm thus far. After a year in the pros, Alex Smith seemed like the slam dunk and Aaron Rodgers seemed like a bust. Today, the reverse is true. The rule is still to give rookie QBs time to grow and learn despite what Ryan (and to a lesser extent Flacco) has done. Nothing is settled with Brohm yet. He simply found himself in a situation where his team has three good young QBs.

i think he has it between the ears (he picked up this offense quite quickly) which means that to me the footwork and drop backs will come with time, but the thing that will take the longest time is learning to make good progressions and not just stare down one reciever like he so often does.

Remind me when Oklahoma's bowl game is coming up and we'll both have a look at the stare down issue. It's not something I had noticed, but I'll be glad to re-evaluate that with his next game.

i dont think he has as high a football IQ as matt ryan does, which means that im not sure he can sit for a year and be ready to play like i think stafford will be able to (should bradford declare this year). i just think there are too many things against him, which is a shame because hes a terrific college qb.

I'm not expecting anyone for a while to have the immediate FBI Ryan has. Even Marino didn't. With regards to how that factors in with him vs. Stafford, I'm just amused to hear all of these knocks on why Bradford and Tebow won't be good pros while he will. In college, both of them have been the stuff of myth and legend while he's just been a relatively generic type of upper program college QB. He's a second team all-conference type of player whose tools are better than his actual play has been.

i really think you might be keying in on the stats too much.

I'm always going to do that. I fervently believe that scouting all too often leads to daydreaming about what someone can be rather than what they are. Oddly, there is also a corollary to this wherein scouts are so hyper-critical of players that they lose sight of how they find any success in the first place. Stafford is being graded up while Bradford and Tebow are currently being graded down in this regard, which leads to nonsense like Mel Kiper telling Tebow he's going to be a TE because he's "too valuable with the ball in his hand". It's the madness of the process.

You mention with Hawaii an example of why it doesn't work. You may recall that I was one of the people here who was highly critical of Colt Brennan as an NFL prospect. That's because I saw that his physical skills were not in line with what his stats would indicate. Meanwhile, I always liked some of the less heralded guys like Flynn and O'Connell because they had something beyond stats. Numbers only take you so far. You still have to rely on personal judgment to take that final step. To wit, stats said Jake Long was the domination. I still knew from watching him every week that he would struggle against certain players. Thus far as a rookie, he's played almost exactly as I had expected. He's a dominant run blocker who can overwhelm certain DEs at the point of attack but who struggles against quick twitch guys. Stats didn't show that but game film did.

what i see when i see stafford is a guy who has 3 years of starting experience, he has significantly improved every year, he has great arm strength, good size and improving accuracy. he has some flaws like occasionally forcing throws into coverage (that sounds familiar coming from me, lol), not always stepping into his deep throws leading to inaccurate passes and i dont think he moves around well in the pocket (as far as side-stepping to avoid the rush to by more time for example).

I don't think he reads defenses well at all. What's happened over and over again with South Carolina really concerns me. I also have noticed an alarming tendency for him to occasionally play with a tremendous lack of preparation. These games where Georgia just gets randomly run off the field the past couple of years are in no small part an aspect of this. I mean, forget the Florida game for a moment and just remember that there was a time during the Vandy game where fans were just hoping his passes would hit the ground. Everything was getting tipped by defenders. He's got upside due to his physical tools and his experience as an SEC starter but the hype on him simply does not match what he has accomplished as a football player. That's the draft equivalent of buying a stock that is overvalued, and I'm always against that.

absolutely, and with a good qb coach i think he will. the one thing i dont think he will ever learn to do is be a good leader. he doesnt have that special leadership ability that is the difference between a good qb and a great qb. matt ryan, brett favre, peyton manning, etc. all have that.

I'm with you on the leadership issue. Moreno is the heart of that team rather than the QB. With regards to the QB coach, that's the randomness factor neither one of us can gauge yet. I don't trust Georgia's ability to develop QBs for the pro game despite their reputation as a pro style offense. Greene was a smarter, tougher player than Stafford is, but he had much less in terms of physical gifts. That means Stafford could be the inferior college player who develops into a better pro under the right tutelage, but I don't bank on that happening. What happened with Ryan and Flacco was rare in that Ryan came to a losing team with a great QB coach and Flacco's head coach has freakish experience nurturing QBs. He was doing it by the time he hit puberty. Most guys won't be that lucky.

does that mean he will bust in the NFL? i dont think so. but i dont think he will ever be great. i think he will be good though.

I actually think we're largely in the same boat on Stafford. I think he'll develop into an NFL starter. I just don't see him as a world-breaker. The debate lies in the player who requires more projection, Bradford. I've been seeding comments for 14 months now that I thought he was special and I mean it. Ryan turned out to be that Peyton Manning type of once a generation talent so that moniker has already been claimed but when I see Bradford, that's the type of talent I see. At a minimum, he's going to be remembered as having one of the best two-season runs in college football history. I strongly suspect that hot streak carries over to the pros. If you can put a football anywhere, you can star in the NFL.

This was a great post on your part and I am deeply impressed with how seriously you are taking the process this year. I'm half-tempted to build you a web site.

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bradford is extremely accurate, i just dont see him make a lot of nfl throws when i watch tape of him. not as far as arm strength or accuracy, but as far as anticipation, making good reads and throwing to the receiver before he is open, not after. bradford does a lot of throwing to receivers after they are already open, and that is very concerning.

Please go back and re-watch tapes of Sam Bradford before you say something foolish again... Watch tape from his freshman year, or this year (non Texas game) to see how he will look in pro style sets...

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quotes from jidady:

As far as coachable issues go, the staring down of receivers is problematic. That's hard to untrain. When to throw the ball, on the other hand, is easily coachable. In fact, there was a Matt Ryan quote flying around about six weeks into the season about how he corrected that issue. During early camps, he had several veteran receivers concerned because of this. His problem stemmed from not appreciating how good his own WRs as well as opposing DBs were. After several chats about this, he started trusting his instincts and getting the ball out of his hand quicker. Given how insanely accurate Bradford is (he's like the Green Arrow), that's not a criticism that concerns me.

i agree. and it is interesting that you brought up joe flacco later in your post because he is the first guy i thought of when you mentioned that staring down your primary reciever is problematic. that was one of my main concerns with flacco this past season and i was so sure that he was going to blow up on the runway starting every game as a rookie but thanks to harbaugh he managed to get off the ground a little bit. you are very right about that being hard to untrain. once i have my notes back ill be able to re-evaluate how often bradford does this. it will be interesting to see him in the national championship game against a very talented florida defense. i am very, very excited about that matchup.

and i did not know that about matt ryan, that is a very interesting tid-bit. however, here are my thoughts on that. ryan had at least a good amount of experience making throws like he is making now because he ran at least a similar pro-style offense in college. he roughly knew when to get it out and how much time he had to scan the field before the routes will have developed and when it was time to pull the trigger on a decision. i think because of that experience, his very impressive football iq and our quality coaching staff he was able to quickly adjust and weve all seen the results. it might be easy to coach, but i cant say i believe that he could have made that adjustment and had it stick with him from the practice field to game day if he hadnt done it all before. or at least something similar.

THAT is where my concern with bradford comes from. if my tape analysis is right (and you can bet your bottom dollar im going to go get my hands on some more film and re-watch what i already have now that these debates are starting to heat up in this forum) and he waits too long to throw it, like after the receiver is already open, then that is a huge red flag for me. while it might be easily coached, you have to imagine that it will take a while for him to get that down. that is a habit he has been learning for at least 2 years during which he has started games. while i dont doubt that he has the intelligence to learn a pro-style i do think that it will take a very good deal of time to do so. on top of the issues stemming from footwork, drop-backs and technique adjustments he will have to learn an entire new offense. one that he has zero experience in. as a part of that, he will have to stop staring down his primary target (which with a good qb coach we can see at least has the potential to be improved upon. i think flacco is a good example of that) and he will have to learn what stafford has already learned, which is essentially to anticipate the route and the throw and make the throw before the receiver is open. thats a mouthful to even say, and it is a mountain of tasks that bradford will be faced with during his first 2 seasons in the NFL, whether they be this year or next year.

i dont doubt that bradford can pick up the timing he will need to get the ball out quickly, especially if he has a good qb coach. i just dont think he will be able to make an adjustment and have it transition to the field like ryan was able to for the reasons i stated above. ryan had experience with it and bradford simply doesnt. i dont think any amount of coaching or practice makes up for that.

I'm always going to focus on stats and personal evaluations when I make determinations on players. In hindsight, the one thing I'd like to have back on Ryan is the idea that he was making his entire team better. Every year, there are half a dozen guys who get that compliment, and it's almost never right. Ryan, like Brett Favre at Southern Miss, is the rare example where it really happened. Given how impossible that is to quantify and just how rarely it happens, I'm not going to change my evaluation principles over something I think we all realize is fluke-ish in nature.

and to be quite honest that style of evaluation has served you well. you dont miss on a lot of guys, that was just one more way in which ryan was the exception, not the rule. :lol: and yes, you are very right about the "this guy makes his team better" label. it is one i am making sure stafford does not get labeled with. as we discussed further down in the post, i dont think stafford is a very good leader.

but what i was trying to convey with that point was that stats certainly dont tell the whole story, and i think you said that exact same thing later in your reply. that was my problem last year. i was looking too much into stats and not enough at the tape. statistics can be twisted to say almost whatever you want if you try hard enough, but as charles davis of NFL Network said literally about 2 million times during the combine: the tape doesnt lie. so that has been my focus this year. i can use stats as an eye-opener to find somebody i want to watch film of (like michael hamlin for example) but if the film is unimpressive i almost just scratch the guy off my list. regardless of how good his stats are. thats the difference for me personally from last year, and that was the point i was trying to make in the part of my post you quoted. just in many, many less words. :lol:

I think that you're reading far too much into Brohm thus far. After a year in the pros, Alex Smith seemed like the slam dunk and Aaron Rodgers seemed like a bust. Today, the reverse is true. The rule is still to give rookie QBs time to grow and learn despite what Ryan (and to a lesser extent Flacco) has done. Nothing is settled with Brohm yet. He simply found himself in a situation where his team has three good young QBs.

well if i had been predicting that hed be good after a year or so of development maybe i would be reading too much into brohm. however, i was of the opinion (before we picked ryan and before i watched the tape at least) that brohm was more NFL ready than ryan and probably everybody else at the QB position in last years draft. it is clear that he has a steep learning curve to adjust to the west coast offense, and i am very eager to see how he does next year in pre-season to see if he can take the backup job away from flynn. flynn had experience in a west coast-ish offense if i remember correctly and i think that gave him the leg up on brohm as a rookie. hopefully brohm has been studying and learning so he can take the backup job next year. i expect that he has been. but as far as being NFL ready i definately dont think im reading too much into this. brohm simply wasnt and ryan obviously was.

i still believe in brohm, and i think he has the talent to be a good west coast qb. he just has a steeper learning curve than i expected. i go to college in southern wisconsin and i live in minnesota, so i shouldnt have a hard time keeping tabs on him.

Remind me when Oklahoma's bowl game is coming up and we'll both have a look at the stare down issue. It's not something I had noticed, but I'll be glad to re-evaluate that with his next game.

sounds good to me. hopefully im not just seeing things. :P man i wish my laptop worked. i could go pull up my notes right now to think of some examples or better yet watch some of the film over again to reassure myself of what i saw.

I'm not expecting anyone for a while to have the immediate FBI Ryan has. Even Marino didn't. With regards to how that factors in with him vs. Stafford, I'm just amused to hear all of these knocks on why Bradford and Tebow won't be good pros while he will. In college, both of them have been the stuff of myth and legend while he's just been a relatively generic type of upper program college QB. He's a second team all-conference type of player whose tools are better than his actual play has been.

well the obvious knock on bradford and tebow is the infamous spread qb knock. while i have always resisted the temptation to just write guys off because they play in the spread (i know pit&atlfan is famous for doing just that) it certainly is historically accurate to say that spread qbs have trouble adjusting to the nfl, and not always just initially. but my problems with tebow stem much deeper than just playing in the spread. he has poor footwork and if i remember correctly a somewhat elongated/not compact throwing motion. neither of which i am particularly wild about. ive never liked him enough to watch a substantial amount of tape on him like i have with stafford or bradford though, so i am just speaking from my perception from live games for the most part. (to be quite honest i watch florida tape for brandon spikes who i absolutely love).

however, with bradford it is substantially more complicated. i like his tools, his football iq, his overall intelligence (not to knock tebows intelligence at all) and his production much more than i like tebows. part of that has to do with bradfords amazing accuracy which has led to his freakish passing numbers, while tebows production has had as much to do with his running ability in past years as it has had to do with his passing. bradfords game and skill-set translates much better to the NFL than tebows imo, and i think a lot of that has to do with his superior mechanics and the fact that bradford doesnt rely on his mobility or his talent as a running threat as tebow does. yet he is still the more productive and polished passer.

when it comes to stafford you certainly are hard on him. but im used to that because i remember how hard both of us were on ryan last year. however, the criticisms of stafford and the criticisms of ryan are at least somewhat similar. forcing passes into coverage, not making good reads (to be honest i cant remember if that was a critique of ryan or not, but it seemed pertinent given the 19 ints), not enough production, etc. and while some people (like scott wright for instance) are giving stafford the franchise qb label i absolutely refuse to. matt ryan was and is a franchise qb imo, stafford is not. personally i think a comparison with matt ryan is unfair for just about anyone, especially other college qbs. no college qb is going to walk into the nfl and have the immediate success ryan has had. and while stafford hasnt been prolifically productive like bradford has and while he hasnt won a national title i do think he has demonstrated the ability to be a good qb. if you look at his stats or specific bad games (not saying you do, this is just an example) you might not come away with that conclusion, but i wanted a more in-depth look than what his statistics were giving me so i decided to watch the tape and i was signing a very different tune after i did. i was very impressed. that is really all i can say about it, but when i watched the tape of stafford i thought and still do think he can be a good NFL qb. your point about his tools being better than his play has been is not totally untrue however.

I'm always going to do that. I fervently believe that scouting all too often leads to daydreaming about what someone can be rather than what they are. Oddly, there is also a corollary to this wherein scouts are so hyper-critical of players that they lose sight of how they find any success in the first place. Stafford is being graded up while Bradford and Tebow are currently being graded down in this regard, which leads to nonsense like Mel Kiper telling Tebow he's going to be a TE because he's "too valuable with the ball in his hand". It's the madness of the process.

this we are in total agreement on: the daydreaming. i see that on here all the time and it is one reason why i absolutely loathe comparing college players to established pros or rookies from the year before. not all the time, but in a lot of instances. it is one my only qualms with NFLDraftScout.com. by comparing a college player who by the nature of common sense and the fact that everyone is at least a little bit different has different traits, talents and flaws to an established pro player you are thinking about that player and how good or bad he is when you think of the college prospect, and that is unfair to both parties imo. just stick to the tape, take notes and write up positives, negatives and an overall summary and a projection. thats what i do. dont compare the guy to other people because it either gets your hopes up or changes of your opinion of him in a negative way. everyone is different so they should be evaluated keeping that in mind. thats what i think.

that mel kiper-tebow "feud" was very funny though. i kind of wish kiper had just flat out told him he didnt think hed be good because he played in the same offense alex smith did. i dont really like tebow so i would have loved to see what he would have said to that. :lol::lol:

You mention with Hawaii an example of why it doesn't work. You may recall that I was one of the people here who was highly critical of Colt Brennan as an NFL prospect. That's because I saw that his physical skills were not in line with what his stats would indicate. Meanwhile, I always liked some of the less heralded guys like Flynn and O'Connell because they had something beyond stats. Numbers only take you so far. You still have to rely on personal judgment to take that final step. To wit, stats said Jake Long was the domination. I still knew from watching him every week that he would struggle against certain players. Thus far as a rookie, he's played almost exactly as I had expected. He's a dominant run blocker who can overwhelm certain DEs at the point of attack but who struggles against quick twitch guys. Stats didn't show that but game film did.

this is a slight side-track, but how has brennan been doing on the 'skins? i remember he didnt look too shabby in preseason, but i dont think he has taken any snaps this year. im just wondering if hes still around on the 'skins or if he flamed out after he looked good at the beginning. my impression was that he was still on the team.

anyways, i certainly see your point (i liked flynn too, and o'connell if i remember correctly :o ). numbers do only take you so far. and you dont have to tell me twice about jake long. i KNOW we were in step about him.

I don't think he reads defenses well at all. What's happened over and over again with South Carolina really concerns me. I also have noticed an alarming tendency for him to occasionally play with a tremendous lack of preparation. These games where Georgia just gets randomly run off the field the past couple of years are in no small part an aspect of this. I mean, forget the Florida game for a moment and just remember that there was a time during the Vandy game where fans were just hoping his passes would hit the ground. Everything was getting tipped by defenders. He's got upside due to his physical tools and his experience as an SEC starter but the hype on him simply does not match what he has accomplished as a football player. That's the draft equivalent of buying a stock that is overvalued, and I'm always against that.

i understand. i think this is one of the main points that we disagree on. you dont think he reads defenses well at all and i think he does read defenses well (or at least he has in the games ive watched). i dont have the tape of the south carolina game or the vanderbilt game (or at least i dont think i do) but it would be interesting to watch it to see if i see what you see, just like i want to see if you see what i see about some things in bradfords game. ill see what i can do once my laptop gets here.

I'm with you on the leadership issue. Moreno is the heart of that team rather than the QB. With regards to the QB coach, that's the randomness factor neither one of us can gauge yet. I don't trust Georgia's ability to develop QBs for the pro game despite their reputation as a pro style offense. Greene was a smarter, tougher player than Stafford is, but he had much less in terms of physical gifts. That means Stafford could be the inferior college player who develops into a better pro under the right tutelage, but I don't bank on that happening. What happened with Ryan and Flacco was rare in that Ryan came to a losing team with a great QB coach and Flacco's head coach has freakish experience nurturing QBs. He was doing it by the time he hit puberty. Most guys won't be that lucky.

yeah im glad we are in step on this one. and this is the part where you mentioned the very good qb coaches atlanta and baltimore had in place for ryan and flacco. and youre right that has a ton to do with it. my opinion of the matter is that while stafford certainly has room to grow he has experience in the offense and really just needs a year to fine tune his mechanics, make sure he steps into his deep throws and i really want to see him learn to buy time by side stepping the rush in the pocket without flushing himself outside the tackle box so often. he has shown me that he is tough and will take a hit to deliver a throw, but sometimes he rolls out when i think he could have stepped up or moved around in the pocket to buy a little extra time to allow the routes to develop.

anyways, you are right about the randomness factor. and given how poorly drew stanton has progressed (if you can even call what hes been doing progressing. i wasnt even sure he was still on the team this year!) i wouldnt put money on detroit having a very good qb coach. that isnt great news for whichever one of these guys gets drafted by them.

I actually think we're largely in the same boat on Stafford. I think he'll develop into an NFL starter. I just don't see him as a world-breaker. The debate lies in the player who requires more projection, Bradford. I've been seeding comments for 14 months now that I thought he was special and I mean it. Ryan turned out to be that Peyton Manning type of once a generation talent so that moniker has already been claimed but when I see Bradford, that's the type of talent I see. At a minimum, he's going to be remembered as having one of the best two-season runs in college football history. I strongly suspect that hot streak carries over to the pros. If you can put a football anywhere, you can star in the NFL.

i think we are as far as our expectations of him as an nfl qb. we both expect him to be an nfl starter and i think he will be a good nfl starter. 20+ tds and about 10 picks, that kind of guy. i dont see him as a world-beater either.

we will see about bradford. we definately have some differing opinions on him. but after writing out this long-winded reply and it being 3:15 in the morning where i am i cant go into it any more right now. :lol:

This was a great post on your part and I am deeply impressed with how seriously you are taking the process this year. I'm half-tempted to build you a web site.

:lol: at the web site comment. thanks for the props it means a lot coming from you. and thanks for the in depth reply, that was really good discussion.

-Mr. Offseason

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Disagree. Beanie Wells will be the first RB taken and rightfully so definitely has a higher ceiling than Moreno. Moreno will be a good NFL back IMO. Not great. Same with Stafford (Again this is JMO)

That is very possible , Look at how many times the best Player is not taken first in the Past Drafts. I mean it happens all the time. So you very well may be right in who goes first , I know one thing , If I was drafting a RB , it would be Moreno first. I think he is one of the best backs that's come along in a while.

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That is very possible , Look at how many times the best Player is not taken first in the Past Drafts. I mean it happens all the time. So you very well may be right in who goes first , I know one thing , If I was drafting a RB , it would be Moreno first. I think he is one of the best backs that's come along in a while.

He's certainly got some billing to live up to if you say that. I think Moreno is probably better than Beanie at this point as Moreno has EXCELLENT vision some of the best i've seen out of a college back. To me he just doesn't have that gear to take it the distance in the NFL IMO. And if i remember correctly weren't a an AP love boy so a while might just mean 1 draft ;)

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i think a comparison with matt ryan is unfair for just about anyone, especially other college qbs. no college qb is going to walk into the nfl and have the immediate success ryan has had.

It absolutely is. The best comparison I can make for what we're going to see this off-season is what happened a couple of years ago after Marques Colston was drafted in the 7th round in 2006. In the days leading up to the 2007 draft, all anyone wanted to discuss was who would be the next Colston. Few people accepted that what made Colston so special is how rare it is that a late round draft pick is so clearly a dominant talent. Similarly, everyone expecting QBs to come in and play like Ryan has are going to be disappointed. Most QBs drafted early in the first round are going to experience the same woes Alex Smith has. You get your a$$ whipped because you don't have a line and you probably don't have good coaching, either.

With regards to Brennan, the only things I've heard about him since the preseason is that his teammates think he's an egomaniac and he hurt his knee a while back. He's getting off-season surgery for that, I know. In terms of how he's grown as a player, we won't know that until he takes the field in a meaningful game.

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He's certainly got some billing to live up to if you say that. I think Moreno is probably better than Beanie at this point as Moreno has EXCELLENT vision some of the best i've seen out of a college back. To me he just doesn't have that gear to take it the distance in the NFL IMO. And if i remember correctly weren't a an AP love boy so a while might just mean 1 draft ;)

the bolded part confused me...

anyways, you are right about his great vision. and while he might not have great top end speed (or at least it doesnt look like it at times) he has a fantastic burst to get through the hole. it almost does remind me of AP (he did the same thing just yesterday. patiently waits for a hole on a stretch play, sees it and makes one cut and all of a sudden hes gone for a 67 yard touchdown). he has good patience, waits for something to open up and then he can hit it the second he sees it with a good cut and change of direction. jonathan stewart was a guy that wasnt supposed to have good top end speed or a good 2nd gear to break long touchdown runs, but he has still had a very successful year with deangelo williams in that backfield.

my only concern with moreno is that he isnt a power back like stewart was. his game is a little more like deangelo williams (as far as being versatile and fast, i dont really think moreno is a power back like stewart is/was) in that his game relies more on speed, etc. but if he does have great top end speed... what does that mean for him?

i think he will be a good one in the NFL though, and i really do like him. i just expect beanie to go first and moreno to be the 2nd rb off the board. if he lands with the cardinals or something... look out. they could have a crazy good offense (especially if warner stops playing like crap for half of a season).

It absolutely is. The best comparison I can make for what we're going to see this off-season is what happened a couple of years ago after Marques Colston was drafted in the 7th round in 2006. In the days leading up to the 2007 draft, all anyone wanted to discuss was who would be the next Colston. Few people accepted that what made Colston so special is how rare it is that a late round draft pick is so clearly a dominant talent. Similarly, everyone expecting QBs to come in and play like Ryan has are going to be disappointed. Most QBs drafted early in the first round are going to experience the same woes Alex Smith has. You get your a$$ whipped because you don't have a line and you probably don't have good coaching, either.

With regards to Brennan, the only things I've heard about him since the preseason is that his teammates think he's an egomaniac and he hurt his knee a while back. He's getting off-season surgery for that, I know. In terms of how he's grown as a player, we won't know that until he takes the field in a meaningful game.

agreed on the colston and ryan phenomenons. and that is too bad about brennan. i was never a big fan of him (remember that one troll who kept saying that brennan was going to be the best qb in the class? i JUST remembered him) but after he got humiliated by georgia i hoped a little bit for him to catch on with a team. its too bad hes an egomaniac though, i dont really like guys like that. i know its not a meaningful game, but we can see how he looks in preseason next year i suppose.

-Mr. Offseason

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He's certainly got some billing to live up to if you say that. I think Moreno is probably better than Beanie at this point as Moreno has EXCELLENT vision some of the best i've seen out of a college back. To me he just doesn't have that gear to take it the distance in the NFL IMO. And if i remember correctly weren't a an AP love boy so a while might just mean 1 draft ;)

Eh, they said the same things about Emmitt that they're saying about Moreno.

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Eh, they said the same things about Emmitt that they're saying about Moreno.

Emmitt had how many HoFers on his OL? Moreno is more talented than Emmitt IMO but i pretty much agree with everything Mr. Offseason said. And to the confusion Offseason draftnut was absolutely in love with AP the year he came out (rightfully so)

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Emmitt had how many HoFers on his OL? Moreno is more talented than Emmitt IMO but i pretty much agree with everything Mr. Offseason said. And to the confusion Offseason draftnut was absolutely in love with AP the year he came out (rightfully so)

thats what i remembered, i just couldnt tell. sorry about the confusion. :P i really liked lynch too. that ride on the little cart that got on youtube was awesome. :lol:

and im glad were on the same page on moreno. i really do like him, im just curious about how much (if at all) his top-end speed will hurt him if it really isnt all that impressive. i have a feeling it could :(

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Williams has 15 pounds on Moreno and has a sick stiff arm. Has more power than Moreno IMO.

Moreno 5-11 208lbs

Williams 5-9 217lbs

Williams official combine weight was 207lbs.

Moreno is 5-11 which will allow him add a few more pounds and meet that same weight. As far as power goes I've yet to see Moreno get knocked backwards when he has a full head of steam. Their running styles are near mirror images. They both spin slash juke their way through traffic and thrive off making people miss.

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moreno at peak could be a real potent RB. i might get some flame for posting this but "mcshay" says there could be 80 underclassmen for 2009 draft. read below:

"12/28/08 - ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay predicted earlier this month that as many as 80 underclassmen might be picked in the upcoming 2009 draft - shattering the previous record of 62, set in 2006. Certainly, rumors of the possible rookie salary cap - which would cut millions of dollars off the initial contracts of players picked high in the first round - beginning for players picked in 2010 and beyond affected those totals. Goodell dispelled those rumors in a story published by ESPN's Chris Mortensen on Saturday, saying rookies will not be subject to a salary cap until at least 2011, after the league's current collective bargaining agreement expires in 2010. "We do expect change at some point after 2010 - in order to shift more money to proven vets - but it will not impact this year's eligible underclassmen that are scheduled to enter the 2010 draft after their senior seasons," Goodell told Mortensen. Told of Goodell's comments by a reporter before Sunday's Capital One Bowl practice, Georgia running back Moreno - who regularly admits that he does not follow professional football - first had to ask a question himself. "Who's Goodell?" Moreno inquired. Once he had been properly informed of the commissioner's identity, Moreno - projected as a probably mid-to-late first-round pick should he leave after the season - said he wasn't aware of Goodell's comments and that they will not affect his decision. "I didn't even know that was even the case," Moreno said. - David Ching, Savannah Now"

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Moreno 5-11 208lbs

Williams 5-9 217lbs

Williams official combine weight was 207lbs.

Moreno is 5-11 which will allow him add a few more pounds and meet that same weight. As far as power goes I've yet to see Moreno get knocked backwards when he has a full head of steam. Their running styles are near mirror images. They both spin slash juke their way through traffic and thrive off making people miss.

I thought i read somewhere moreno was 205 and williams was 220 my bad.

Eric Berry and Brandon Spikes but to be fair i think those 2 are legit NFL 1st rounders. Running styles are very similar Again though i'm not saying Moreno isn't gonna be a good pro but he won't be great IMO.

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I thought i read somewhere moreno was 205 and williams was 220 my bad.

Eric Berry and Brandon Spikes but to be fair i think those 2 are legit NFL 1st rounders. Running styles are very similar Again though i'm not saying Moreno isn't gonna be a good pro but he won't be great IMO.

If I remember correctly Berry caught Moreno from the side (not sure about this one) and Spikes caught him during a side step in the backfield when he came through untouched (very sure about this one). William "Refridgerator" Perry would have gotten lit up in those situations.

If Moreno goes to a team with an O-line he's gonna flourish. It might take a year or two like it did with Williams but he's got to much drive and heart to not IMO.

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dude no problem. i dont think ive ever been so wrong in my life. and i know i gave you more than your fair share of flak for supporting ryan all that time. probably in every mock you made and every thread you started. so you deserve it. any time anyone says "everyone here hated matt ryan" the first thing that pops into my head is "yeah, everyone but MSalmon" and if theres any debate about it i post that. you definately deserve it.

yeah i completely agree with you. remember their heisman winner white? he was a complete bust in the NFL. i definately like bradford better than him, but he ran the same offense and won a heisman in that same program... so im just saying.

and i think you typed bradford when you meant stafford once or twice but i know what youre trying to say. and i really wish i could see stafford and bradford at the senior bowl even though they wouldnt be seniors. that would be very helpful to see them in practice and also in the game, etc. but i doubt we will get to see that since i expect that stafford will declare this year. but im glad were on the same page on this one, i know we had some pretty long-winded arguments about ryan and the other qbs last year.

-Mr. Offseason

I'll argue with you anyday--it's fun! I'm interested to see what TD does in this years draft. He's different than what were used to. I wasn't joking about Moreno being a Falcon. TD has the balls and patriot lineage--that always has him looking to add weapons and value! I don't see him drafting a DT in the first or RT in the first that isn't worth it.

On the Brohm pick. I still don't think he's a bust, i think he's more of a system QB. That's not bad. I almost see Bradford in the same vein. I think in the right system he can be a fine QB. Maybe even a star. ****, Joe Montana would have sucked in any offense but the WCO. Stafford is one of those rare guys with the right coaching that has the physical skills to play any system. Ryan is better than Stafford because he can play any system, but has that "it" factor.

Whoever brought up Tebow is nuts--sorry. He doesn't have an NFL qb arm. He might be a great FB or TE.

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