Jump to content

Statz's Playoff Scenarios


Statzford
 Share

Recommended Posts

Right now, the Falcons are 8-5, which currently is 7th in the conference, one spot out of playoffs, behind the 8-5 Cowboys. First thing first, cheer for the Panthers tonight. Panthers and Bucs are currently both 9-3, but we already played the Panthers twice, and we play the Bucs next week. If the Bucs lose tonight, they will be 9-4 and hopefully 9-5 after we play them. Ok now that's out of the way, here how things shakedown.

Tampa Bay (9-3)

Remaining Games

@ Carolina

@ ATL

vs San Diego

vs Oakland

Panthers (9-3)

vs TB

vs DEN

@ NY Giants

@ N.O

Dallas (8-5)

Remaining Games

vs NY Giants

vs Baltimore

@ Philly

Atlanta (8-5)

Remaining games

vs Tampa Bay

@ Min

vs St. Louis

Philly (7-5-1)

Remaining Games

vs Cleveland

@ Washington

vs Dallas

Washington (7-6)

Remaining Games

@ Cincy

vs Philly

@ SF

New Orleans (7-6)

Remaining Games

@Chicago

@Det

vs Car

Chicago Bears (7-6)

Remaining Games

vs N.O.

vs GB

@ Houston

To win the division

If Bucs beat Panthers tonight, it's highly unlike that we would win the division unless the Bucs lose their remaining three games. We would also have to win out and have Carolina go 1-2 over their remaining games. One of those losses will have to be against Denver, if not, Carolina beat us in a tiebreaker.

If Panther beat Bucs tonight, we will need the Panthers to lose to the Broncos and Saints. If the Panthers win against the Broncos, our hopes of winning the division are pretty much gone. And we need to win out. Then it will come down to the strength of victory tie breaker. We are currently behind both the Bucs and Panthers in this category. (28 points behind Bucs and 2 points behind Panthers)

To Get WC Berth

If the Falcons win their remaining games, most likely, at the very least, they will get a wild card berth. This all depends on Dallas though.

If Dallas win out, which I doubt they do, things will come down to a tie breaker. It would proceed to the 5th tie breaker, which is strength of victory. As of right now, we are 20 points ahead of Dallas in this tie breaker and we still have St. Louis to play.

Honestly, I don't see anyone with a chance, other than us and Washington, of running the table. I think Dallas will go 2-1, possibly 1-2. I think the Saints will go 2-1. I think Philly will go 1-2. I think Chicago will go 2-1.

If Falcons win 2 out of 3, we are going to need some help. If we were to lose one, it would be more beneficial to lose to St. Louis, not the Bucs or Minn because that would hurt us in tie breakers, divisional record and common games respectively.

If we lose to the Bucs and win the remaining games, we would need

Dallas to lose at least 1 game against a NFC opponent

Eagles to lose at least 1 game against a NFC opponent

Skins to lose at least 1 game against a NFC opponent

Saints to lose at least 1 game against a NFC South opponent

Bears dont matter since we beat earlier

If we go 1-2, it's still possible that we can make it but it's high unlikely. I don't see us winning the division, but I do think we will get a WC spot. As always, best case scenario is just to win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right now, the Falcons are 8-5, which currently is 7th in the conference, one spot out of playoffs, behind the 8-5 Cowboys. First thing first, cheer for the Panthers tonight. Panthers and Bucs are currently both 9-3, but we already played the Panthers twice, and we play the Bucs next week. If the Bucs lose tonight, they will be 9-4 and hopefully 9-5 after we play them. Ok now that's out of the way, here how things shakedown.

Tampa Bay (9-3)

Remaining Games

@ Carolina

@ ATL

vs San Diego

vs Oakland

Panthers (9-3)

vs TB

vs DEN

@ NY Giants

@ N.O

Dallas (8-5)

Remaining Games

vs NY Giants

vs Baltimore

@ Philly

Atlanta (8-5)

Remaining games

vs Tampa Bay

@ Min

vs St. Louis

Philly (7-5-1)

Remaining Games

vs Cleveland

@ Washington

vs Dallas

Washington (7-6)

Remaining Games

@ Cincy

vs Philly

@ SF

New Orleans (7-6)

Remaining Games

@Chicago

@Det

vs Car

Chicago Bears (7-6)

Remaining Games

vs N.O.

vs GB

@ Houston

To win the division

If Bucs beat Panthers tonight, it's highly unlike that we would win the division unless the Bucs lose their remaining three games. We would also have to win out and have Carolina go 1-2 over their remaining games. One of those losses will have to be against Denver, if not, Carolina beat us in a tiebreaker.

If Panther beat Bucs tonight, we will need the Panthers to lose to the Broncos and Saints. If the Panthers win against the Broncos, our hopes of winning the division are pretty much gone. And we need to win out. Then it will come down to the strength of victory tie breaker. We are currently behind both the Bucs and Panthers in this category. (28 points behind Bucs and 2 points behind Panthers)

To Get WC Berth

If the Falcons win their remaining games, most likely, at the very least, they will get a wild card berth. This all depends on Dallas though.

If Dallas win out, which I doubt they do, things will come down to a tie breaker. It would proceed to the 5th tie breaker, which is strength of victory. As of right now, we are 20 points ahead of Dallas in this tie breaker and we still have St. Louis to play.

Honestly, I don't see anyone with a chance, other than us and Washington, of running the table. I think Dallas will go 2-1, possibly 1-2. I think the Saints will go 2-1. I think Philly will go 1-2. I think Chicago will go 2-1.

If Falcons win 2 out of 3, we are going to need some help. If we were to lose one, it would be more beneficial to lose to St. Louis, not the Bucs or Minn because that would hurt us in tie breakers, divisional record and common games respectively.

If we lose to the Bucs and win the remaining games, we would need

Dallas to lose at least 1 game against a NFC opponent

Eagles to lose at least 1 game against a NFC opponent

Skins to lose at least 1 game against a NFC opponent

Saints to lose at least 1 game against a NFC South opponent

Bears dont matter since we beat earlier

If we go 1-2, it's still possible that we can make it but it's high unlikely. I don't see us winning the division, but I do think we will get a WC spot. As always, best case scenario is just to win.

good info,

I've use the playoff scenario generator so mauch i think I am going to make it my homepage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Excellent info, all of these playoff scenarios over the past few weeks have kept my head spinning. All I know is I'm pulling for us to win out and those close to us to keep losing...namely the Cowgirls. If we win out and Dallas loses one more we should be in there w/o a problem. Go Falcons!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice job with the research. If I have one correction to make it's where you say teams like Philly, Washington, New Orleans, etc. need to lose of certain opponents if we lose to Tampa and then win our other games. Here's how it would break down:

If we win 2 out of our next 3, regardless of who it's against, we will be 10-6. Here's what the other teams will have to do:

Dallas is 8-5 as we are, they would have to win 2 games to match us. Then it comes down to tiebreakers and you're right, a loss to an NFC team would be best. I don't think the Cowboys will win two more games.

Philadelphia is 7-5-1. If we get to 10-6, they would have to win out. A loss to anyone would put them no better than 9-6-1.

Washington and New Orleans are both 7-6. They would also have to win out to force tiebreakers. Any loss would put them no better than 9-7.

Chicago of course can not pass us if we get to 10-6 even if they win out based on head-to-head.

I love getting to the end of the season and getting to break down all of these scenarios. Exciting times in Georgia right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice job with the research. If I have one correction to make it's where you say teams like Philly, Washington, New Orleans, etc. need to lose of certain opponents if we lose to Tampa and then win our other games. Here's how it would break down:

If we win 2 out of our next 3, regardless of who it's against, we will be 10-6. Here's what the other teams will have to do:

Dallas is 8-5 as we are, they would have to win 2 games to match us. Then it comes down to tiebreakers and you're right, a loss to an NFC team would be best. I don't think the Cowboys will win two more games.

Philadelphia is 7-5-1. If we get to 10-6, they would have to win out. A loss to anyone would put them no better than 9-6-1.

Washington and New Orleans are both 7-6. They would also have to win out to force tiebreakers. Any loss would put them no better than 9-7.

Chicago of course can not pass us if we get to 10-6 even if they win out based on head-to-head.

I love getting to the end of the season and getting to break down all of these scenarios. Exciting times in Georgia right now.

Playoff Starts Next Sunday against BUCS.. If we beat the BUCS... Viking might be scared of us. Also, Williams brothers might get suspended.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok, as I see it, and from what I gather from sites. Strength of Victory, which is a tiebreaker, is NOT number of points a team has won by. That is MARGIN of Victory. STRENGTH of victory is combining the winning % of the opponents a team has beaten. I just thought we should clear that up. So this talk of being 20 something points behind Tampa is wrong. That will not come into play, because the tiebreaker should not make it to Points for/against.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...