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Falconsfan567

Good Jeff Francoeur article

85 posts in this topic

I was getting bored pulling the wings off flies.

In your estimation, what percentage of good major league hitters are able to get away with poor discipline? And why are you so sure Francoeur would be one of them, given the way major league pitchers have easily revealed the holes in his swing over the past 3 seasons?

2%-5%

You ever look at the OBPs of the Red Sox? There's a reason they are so consistently good in scoring. Youk is .390, Pedroia is .376, Manny was always around .400, Bay (his replacement) is .375 for his career, JD Drew is .408 this season, Ortiz is low for him at .369. There is a reason why Boston fans swear by Theo. He is a Moneyball guy who prioritizes OBP and slugging percentage, two things Franceour does not have going for him.

that is taking in to fact of errors and walks I perfer avg which is just pure hitting as a gauge.

At this point, I don't understand where the 25 homers thing is coming from. He has 30 in his last 1,200 at bats and 3 in his last 250. In addition to being an easy out, he doesn't hit the ball hard when he does manage to make contact.

well before this year he hit 19 in 07' and 29 in 06' and 14 in his brief 05' so my estimation of 20-25 is pretty sound if he gets back to his swing which is more fluid and quick not strong which was a big problem last year

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I do think he has the ability to be a 270-280 hitter with 20-25 hrs and 90-100 RBI's. .

And if that turns out to be true, then nobody should be complaning. B/c that means the Braves are winning.

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It seems this has gotten quite heated since I left, so lets try and calm things down.

Francouer, since his first few months in the league (if that), has not shown anything contrary to average. He won't hit more than 25 HRs, he won't batter much higher than .285 (if that), and he might come close to 100 RBIs, depending upon who is batting ahead of him.

Frenchy is not the cornerstone of this team. He looked good when he came up, really good. But since then, these sky-high expectations have only hurt him. He isn't the next Chipper, he isn't the next Andruw Jones (with 50 HR, consistent Gold Glove potential). He is an average major league ball player at best.

Now I love the guy, thought he could be great, but last season looked more like the rule than the exception.

As I have already stated, he deserves another chance. Maybe if the situation were different and our minor leagues were stocked with potentially great OF'ers, I would say give him 2 years or so (or until he is a FA).

But can we all agree on 1 thing?: Frenchy turning down the 5-year, $24 milliion-ish contract was the luckiest thing to happen to the Braves. He might earn it eventually, but can you imagine if we were on the hook for that much, for that long? Give the guy a break, but let's not get back to thinking he will eventually replace Chipper, because he simply hasn't shown anything close to that.

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It seems this has gotten quite heated since I left, so lets try and calm things down.

Francouer, since his first few months in the league (if that), has not shown anything contrary to average. He won't hit more than 25 HRs, he won't batter much higher than .285 (if that), and he might come close to 100 RBIs, depending upon who is batting ahead of him.

Frenchy is not the cornerstone of this team. He looked good when he came up, really good. But since then, these sky-high expectations have only hurt him. He isn't the next Chipper, he isn't the next Andruw Jones (with 50 HR, consistent Gold Glove potential). He is an average major league ball player at best.

Now I love the guy, thought he could be great, but last season looked more like the rule than the exception.

As I have already stated, he deserves another chance. Maybe if the situation were different and our minor leagues were stocked with potentially great OF'ers, I would say give him 2 years or so (or until he is a FA).

But can we all agree on 1 thing?: Frenchy turning down the 5-year, $24 milliion-ish contract was the luckiest thing to happen to the Braves. He might earn it eventually, but can you imagine if we were on the hook for that much, for that long? Give the guy a break, but let's not get back to thinking he will eventually replace Chipper, because he simply hasn't shown anything close to that.

well I agree with everything except for this past year being the rule. I think that is premature since his previous years were not as such. I think he has yet to show us which is the rule. 09' should show us which is closer to the rule.

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well I agree with everything except for this past year being the rule. I think that is premature since his previous years were not as such.

Even allowing for your comments that you prefer pure hitting to OBP, which we fundamentally disagree on, don't you agree that something happening over 85% of the time qualifies as being the rule?

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Even allowing for your comments that you prefer pure hitting to OBP, which we fundamentally disagree on, don't you agree that something happening over 85% of the time qualifies as being the rule?

what is happening 85% of the time. I would say using this stat without knowing what you are talking about that it would lead one to believe it is a rule. Now that I bite what were we talking about?

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It seems this has gotten quite heated since I left, so lets try and calm things down.

Francouer, since his first few months in the league (if that), has not shown anything contrary to average. He won't hit more than 25 HRs, he won't batter much higher than .285 (if that), and he might come close to 100 RBIs, depending upon who is batting ahead of him.

Frenchy is not the cornerstone of this team. He looked good when he came up, really good. But since then, these sky-high expectations have only hurt him. He isn't the next Chipper, he isn't the next Andruw Jones (with 50 HR, consistent Gold Glove potential). He is an average major league ball player at best.

Now I love the guy, thought he could be great, but last season looked more like the rule than the exception.

As I have already stated, he deserves another chance. Maybe if the situation were different and our minor leagues were stocked with potentially great OF'ers, I would say give him 2 years or so (or until he is a FA).

But can we all agree on 1 thing?: Frenchy turning down the 5-year, $24 milliion-ish contract was the luckiest thing to happen to the Braves. He might earn it eventually, but can you imagine if we were on the hook for that much, for that long? Give the guy a break, but let's not get back to thinking he will eventually replace Chipper, because he simply hasn't shown anything close to that.

Perfectly fair IYAM.

And I think we all know that McCann is the cornerstone of this team.

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Perfectly fair IYAM.

And I think we all know that McCann is the cornerstone of this team.

I love McCann, and have warmed up to the idea of him being that cornerstone, but I also wouldn't put it past Jason Heyward to come in and take over that position in just a few years. He is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball, and has all the qualities you want in a true superstar, with the potential to grow into one of the best players in the league.

From everything I hear, people are just in love with this kid. He has a great attitude, and knows baseball. Heyward/McCann for years to come.

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Sorry I had to bail on you guys yesterday. Now I will add in a final 2 cents. Lol.

**** how did I get called out on this.

OK I have made it known that that I am not a fan of his because he is from GA. I have made it known that I am a fan of ex ECB players and wish him to succeed.

I also think this year he tried to be something that he was not by bulking up to power hit when his swing is a quick handed wild swing. That is his natural swing and it will never resemble plate discipline. I also say that he will never have jidady's OBP that he loves (which I think he is overrating a bit). I do think he has the ability to be a 270-280 hitter with 20-25 hrs and 90-100 RBI's. I also see that when he started loosing the bulk his D improved back to what it was and that was a quality RF'er for us. Not great but quality.

Yes you are totally right. Let's not forget the born spurs he has in his ankle this year that started to mess with him. Once he lost the bulk his fielding and hitting got better. He batting .298 in the month of September.

well before this year he hit 19 in 07' and 29 in 06' and 14 in his brief 05' so my estimation of 20-25 is pretty sound if he gets back to his swing which is more fluid and quick not strong which was a big problem last year

Yes you are totally right.

And if that turns out to be true, then nobody should be complaning. B/c that means the Braves are winning.

BINGO!!! Last time I checked winning was the most importantly thing.

It seems this has gotten quite heated since I left, so lets try and calm things down.

Francouer, since his first few months in the league (if that), has not shown anything contrary to average. He won't hit more than 25 HRs, he won't batter much higher than .285 (if that), and he might come close to 100 RBIs, depending upon who is batting ahead of him.

Frenchy is not the cornerstone of this team. He looked good when he came up, really good. But since then, these sky-high expectations have only hurt him. He isn't the next Chipper, he isn't the next Andruw Jones (with 50 HR, consistent Gold Glove potential). He is an average major league ball player at best.

Now I love the guy, thought he could be great, but last season looked more like the rule than the exception.

As I have already stated, he deserves another chance. Maybe if the situation were different and our minor leagues were stocked with potentially great OF'ers, I would say give him 2 years or so (or until he is a FA).

But can we all agree on 1 thing?: Frenchy turning down the 5-year, $24 milliion-ish contract was the luckiest thing to happen to the Braves. He might earn it eventually, but can you imagine if we were on the hook for that much, for that long? Give the guy a break, but let's not get back to thinking he will eventually replace Chipper, because he simply hasn't shown anything close to that.

I never said he was gonna replace Chipper as the leader of the team. But I do believe Francoeur will get better. But I believe WALKS are overrated because we have seen alot of guys get by without walking a ton and have a good career. I'm not talking about Vladimir Guerrero but a former Atlanta Braves outfielder himself. Jermaine Dye. Dye has never walked more than 69 times in a season. He has only walked more than 50 times in a season 3 times in his career.

well I agree with everything except for this past year being the rule. I think that is premature since his previous years were not as such. I think he has yet to show us which is the rule. 09' should show us which is closer to the rule.

Exactly. That was only his 3rd full year in the league.

I love McCann, and have warmed up to the idea of him being that cornerstone, but I also wouldn't put it past Jason Heyward to come in and take over that position in just a few years. He is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball, and has all the qualities you want in a true superstar, with the potential to grow into one of the best players in the league.

From everything I hear, people are just in love with this kid. He has a great attitude, and knows baseball. Heyward/McCann for years to come.

I was thinking the exact same thing. Heyward is our future.

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I love McCann, and have warmed up to the idea of him being that cornerstone, but I also wouldn't put it past Jason Heyward to come in and take over that position in just a few years. He is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball, and has all the qualities you want in a true superstar, with the potential to grow into one of the best players in the league.

From everything I hear, people are just in love with this kid. He has a great attitude, and knows baseball. Heyward/McCann for years to come.

I agree.

Good to see you coming around on Mac being the Franchise. It's not often you see a catcher in that role, but Mac is special.

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Run production also stems from OBP. You cant score runs if you arnt on base.

I'll take .275/30/100 anyday as will most other people but I sure wouldnt take .230/30/100 because he is scoring less runs and moving less people along the basepaths.

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Run production also stems from OBP. You cant score runs if you arnt on base.

I'll take .275/30/100 anyday as will most other people but I sure wouldnt take .230/30/100 because he is scoring less runs and moving less people along the basepaths.

I can agree that .230 is too low whether he produces runs or not. .260 is my threshhold there.

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I can agree that .230 is too low whether he produces runs or not. .260 is my threshhold there.

Which is why I said .275 in my prediction. Yes .230 is too low. I think .265 or so is about as low as I would except. But getting back to OBP. I believe Francoeur will improve his walks.

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as I have said all along, if we had a decent CF or LF putting up good numbers, Francouer's numbers wouldn't be so obvious. But because our entire OF was a black hole, Francouer took the heat.

Hopefully only one of Josh Anderson/Gregor Blanco is back on the team. They are essentially the same player, and neither gives much in terms of run support. A good LF, Jordan Schafer in CF, and Frenchy in RF is what this team needs to aim for for next season.

As far as Matt Diaz/Greg Norton, I think we can only keep one. Honestly, I have never been impressed with Diaz as anything more than a bat off the bench, and Norton was pretty good in that regard. I think Diaz's trade value is higher, and I am sure the Royals/Nationals would love to take him off our hands for a decent RHP prospect.

Omar Infante was great, and provides a good option for if/when Chipper is injured. Martin Prado is another great guy off the bench.

The only FA I would go looking for are P & LF.

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as I have said all along, if we had a decent CF or LF putting up good numbers, Francouer's numbers wouldn't be so obvious. But because our entire OF was a black hole, Francouer took the heat.

Hopefully only one of Josh Anderson/Gregor Blanco is back on the team. They are essentially the same player, and neither gives much in terms of run support. A good LF, Jordan Schafer in CF, and Frenchy in RF is what this team needs to aim for for next season.

As far as Matt Diaz/Greg Norton, I think we can only keep one. Honestly, I have never been impressed with Diaz as anything more than a bat off the bench, and Norton was pretty good in that regard. I think Diaz's trade value is higher, and I am sure the Royals/Nationals would love to take him off our hands for a decent RHP prospect.

Omar Infante was great, and provides a good option for if/when Chipper is injured. Martin Prado is another great guy off the bench.

The only FA I would go looking for are P & LF.

If Diaz doesn't get too much of a raise in salary we could afford to keep him as a right handed pinch hitter and maybe a platoon in LF. Diaz just kills left handed pitching. Norton is great a being a left handed pinch hitter but he blows chunks batting right handed.

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what is happening 85% of the time. I would say using this stat without knowing what you are talking about that it would lead one to believe it is a rule. Now that I bite what were we talking about?

Over 85% of the time, he's getting out more than the average league hitter. Over 70% of the time, he's slugging less than the average major league hitter. Based on this, I believe it's perfectly fair to say that he's an easy out and not enough of a slugger to excuse his other shortcomings. Which part of this do you believe is not accurately described trending?

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Run production also stems from OBP. You cant score runs if you arnt on base.

I'll take .275/30/100 anyday as will most other people but I sure wouldnt take .230/30/100 because he is scoring less runs and moving less people along the basepaths.

Yeah, I'm sure that's why people didn't even bother discussing that matter. It's just common sense that anyone who gets out too often is hurting the team.

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Over 85% of the time, he's getting out more than the average league hitter. Over 70% of the time, he's slugging less than the average major league hitter. Based on this, I believe it's perfectly fair to say that he's an easy out and not enough of a slugger to excuse his other shortcomings. Which part of this do you believe is not accurately described trending?

OK man you are better than this. even at 230 avg. that is getting out 77%. 85% would be a 150 avg. I get you point and do understand. but he had a 280 career avg before this year which was say 2.5 years. So which is the trend 1 year at 235 or 2.5 years at 280. You may be completely right that it was the pitchers doing a better job against him, but we also could be completely correct that it was bulk and trying to be a different type of hitter that did this. The start of next year will be a big factor to which direction the trend is really going.

I truly hope you are the one that has to eat crow, but if it is me I like mine grilled with light seasoning.

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OK man you are better than this. even at 230 avg. that is getting out 77%. 85% would be a 150 avg. I get you point and do understand. but he had a 280 career avg before this year which was say 2.5 years. So which is the trend 1 year at 235 or 2.5 years at 280. You may be completely right that it was the pitchers doing a better job against him, but we also could be completely correct that it was bulk and trying to be a different type of hitter that did this. The start of next year will be a big factor to which direction the trend is really going.

I truly hope you are the one that has to eat crow, but if it is me I like mine grilled with light seasoning.

Which is why I have it in my sig. I will truly comeback here and say I was wrong if he doesn't produce next year. But I'm not ready to give up on him after just 1 bad year.

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OK man you are better than this. even at 230 avg. that is getting out 77%. 85% would be a 150 avg.

You need to read the thread again. Earlier, I posted a list of his OBPs for the months he's been in the majors. Since his hot start in his first 43 games, he has been sub-par in OBP over 85% of the time and in slugging percentage over 70% of the time. I have made no mention of batting average, something I consider to be a limited stat. The beauty of OBP is it distinguishes guys like Burrell who get walks and makes pitchers work for their outs as opposed to guys like Francoeur who swing at the first pitch 45% of the time.

I truly hope you are the one that has to eat crow, but if it is me I like mine grilled with light seasoning.

I don't think it's going to matter. I'll be surprised if we leave spring training with him slotted to play RF every day. He may make the team as a fourth outfielder, but we're going to replace him. It's too obvious how much he hurt the team this year. In fact, I saw a sabermatrician make the argument that Francoeur alone cost the Braves 49 runs last year. Had he just been an average player, that's how much better our offense would have been. Unless the Braves are convinced they simply cannot do any better, he won't be the guy. I expect them to try to get Dayton Moore or some other young team to take him out of the limelight, which would be good for the team and the kid.

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You need to read the thread again. Earlier, I posted a list of his OBPs for the months he's been in the majors. Since his hot start in his first 43 games, he has been sub-par in OBP over 85% of the time and in slugging percentage over 70% of the time. I have made no mention of batting average, something I consider to be a limited stat. The beauty of OBP is it distinguishes guys like Burrell who get walks and makes pitchers work for their outs as opposed to guys like Francoeur who swing at the first pitch 45% of the time.

I don't think it's going to matter. I'll be surprised if we leave spring training with him slotted to play RF every day. He may make the team as a fourth outfielder, but we're going to replace him. It's too obvious how much he hurt the team this year. In fact, I saw a sabermatrician make the argument that Francoeur alone cost the Braves 49 runs last year. Had he just been an average player, that's how much better our offense would have been. Unless the Braves are convinced they simply cannot do any better, he won't be the guy. I expect them to try to get Dayton Moore or some other young team to take him out of the limelight, which would be good for the team and the kid.

You're laughable. Francoeur was the easy target as the weak link in our lineup last year only because we didn't have an everyday LF or CF.

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You need to read the thread again. Earlier, I posted a list of his OBPs for the months he's been in the majors. Since his hot start in his first 43 games, he has been sub-par in OBP over 85% of the time and in slugging percentage over 70% of the time. I have made no mention of batting average, something I consider to be a limited stat. The beauty of OBP is it distinguishes guys like Burrell who get walks and makes pitchers work for their outs as opposed to guys like Francoeur who swing at the first pitch 45% of the time.

ok I finely understand your point. He only reached the avg. OBP 15 % of the time. ok that is where your 85% comment came from. You never made that clear. Well all stats are kept for a reason. OBP tells avg, plus walks, and errors. it is a good stat I also see avg. used as a very good stat as well. Howard had great stats this year including your OBP, but the media still argued over his poor avg. If you look his had great stats RBI's, HR, OBP and they still said that if he did not win the MVP they thought it would be from his sub par AVG. Jeff will never be a guy you can like because he will never have the type of OBP that you like. I for one will be fine if he gets back to his 270/25/100 seasons and not even worry about him walking.

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Francoeur was the easy target as the weak link in our lineup last year only because we didn't have an everyday LF or CF.

I'll the stupidity of this post speak for itself.

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ok I finely understand your point. He only reached the avg. OBP 15 % of the time. ok that is where your 85% comment came from. You never made that clear.

"let's just look at Francoeur's on base percentages every month he's been in the majors."

Well all stats are kept for a reason. OBP tells avg, plus walks, and errors. it is a good stat I also see avg. used as a very good stat as well. Howard had great stats this year including your OBP, but the media still argued over his poor avg.

And this is why BA is a terrible evaluator. People can argue folks like Dunn and him for their averages, ignoring the fact that they see more pitches and take at bats deeper into counts. Dunn's batting average of .236 was about the same as Francoeur's .239. The difference between them is that Dunn worked 122 walks while slugging .513. Francoeur only worked 39 walks and slugged .359. On the surface, the batting averages make it seem like they had similar seasons when in reality Dunn was the 9th toughest out in the NL while Francoeur was the second to worst (!). You've just offered the blueprint example of why batting average is such a useless stat. It doesn't accurately reflect what a hitter does at the plate.

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You're laughable. Francoeur was the easy target as the weak link in our lineup last year only because we didn't have an everyday LF or CF.
I'll the stupidity of this post speak for itself.

I actually agree with FalconsFan567. If we had any production at all out of LF or CF (like if Matt Diaz didn't get hurt and performed as well everyday as he did sharing LF duties, or if Kotsay was healthy all season), Francouer's woes wouldn't have been as noticeable.

That is not to make excuses for Jeff, but rather to state how terrible our entire OF was. Gregor Blanco starting as much as he did was a joke. He is a great utility OF, but nothing more.

Our IF came together nicely, even when Kotchman was starting most of the games, and our C is top 5 in the NL (perhaps all of baseball). But our OF production was dismal, and Jeff is a huge reason for that. But even he did bat .265, 18 HRs, 85 RBIs, that still would have left us with very little production from our OF.

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