Brookhaven Posted April 21, 2008 Share Posted April 21, 2008 This is a repost of some earlier info, along with my explination of why we will end up drafting 12th.The Writing is on the Wall for the Falcons' draft plans, if anyone would take the time to read it.One thing we can probably agree on is the Falcons are working hard to trade down from #3 and aquire more picks. When even the board moderator makes a comment about trading down, you know the trade down rumors around the Branch must be pretty heavy.But, what does that reveal about our true interest in Jake Long or Glen Dorsey or Matt Ryah? That we believe we can build a winning team without them, because trading down almost certainly means we miss out on one (if not all) of them. If we were really targeting one of these guys as a must have player, we would not be trading down.Forgoing Long, Dorsey, and Ryan would also indicate the Falcons have targeted a number of players later in the draft that can fill those positional needs for us. Not surprising, since the core of most teams is not built with 1st rounders, but 2nd-5th round players. So what do we do with the 2nd round picks? After having traded down in the 1st to aquire more picks, does it make sense to turn around and trade away those picks (and then some) to move back into the 1st round? Not really. Given that the Browns had to burn a future first round pick and then some to move back into the 1st round to draft Quinn, we'd probably be looking at giving up two 2nd round picks and a little more. The scenario that fits our draft philosophy is we take advantage of having extra picks at the top of the 2nd and trade at least one down with a team that sees a player they covet slipping into the 2nd. Turning our early 2nd into a md-late 2nd and 3rd round pick.So who do we draft? it doesn't seem we're worried about missing out on the linemen in the early 1st. We aren't going to trade up into the 1st for a QB, but it also doesn't make sense that we are going to risk missing our QB by sitting pat in the 2nd and waiting on our guy to fall (when QB is the one position we must fill in this draft.) The writing on the wall would seem to indicate:1st: trade down and draft a QB.2nd & 3rd: one trade down, use the extra picks to establish a core for the team for years to come (with a focus on the lines.)Why we will end up drafting 12th in the 1st roundThis is going to involve two trades. A rarity, but I think the ground work is there. We've let out the info that we want to trade down, and we aren't locked in to drafting any single player. This is the key to trading down.All of a sudden the Falcons' interest in Ryan is smoking hot. Maybe it is, but it also puts on notice to any team that if they are really interested in Ryan, he won't make it past #3. The Cheifs, and definitly Baltimore, are going to make a tough decision come draft day. Trade up to #3 or run a high risk of missing on Ryan. The other trade that has only been hinted at is the Patriots trading up to #3 and drafting Gholston. Very un-patriot like? Sure, but lately they've done a number of things that are un-patriot like. Gholston looks to be a better version of Demarcus Ware in a 3-4 defense. Ware has wreaked havoc on offenses. There is a chance he could go to the Raiders at #4, but won't get past the Jets, which means the Patriots will have to face him twice a year.If the Patriots jump ahead of the Jets to get Gholston, it will not only help the Pats' defense, it will hurt a division rival. This logic also applies to the Jets, who may see a need to jump up to prevent the Pats from jumping ahead of them.In any case, I think the Ravens are the most likely trading partner, although the Pats and Jets are also in the mix.1st trade, down to #8 with Ravens.By the 8th pick either Ellis or Dorsey will be gone, but not both. The Bengals at #9 need a DT in the worse way, but they have a couple of other options also, so I think they will be willing to sit and take whoever falls to them (if Ellis or Dorsey are there, they will jump on them in a minute.)Enter the Broncos and the #12 pick. The Broncos have been on a mission to find a DT. If they want a DT, they will have to get ahead of Cincy. They will.2nd trade, down to #12 with Denver.At 12, our options are going to be OT (Clady, Williams, or Otah) or a QB (probably Brohm.) Either would be a great value for us, and fill a big need. This only works if 1. the Falcons don't become fixated on having to draft a specific player (say Ellis), and 2. the Falcons demand less than the trade value chart to for their pick. If the Falcons were close to competing, they could fixate on a player, or hold out for more picks in a trade, but they aren't. The Falcons need to add quality players at almost every position, so the smart thing for them to do is add as many 1st day picks (even future ones) as possible.I think the most likely pick at #12 is a QB, it just makes more sense than working so hard to aquire the extra draft pick then just turning around and giving them away to trade back up into the 1st for a QB (which is what we'll have to do if we don't draft a QB at #12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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