The Falcons will draft 12th in the 1st round

[Brookhaven]

This is a repost of some earlier info, along with my explination of why we will end up drafting 12th.

The Writing is on the Wall for the Falcons' draft plans, if anyone would take the time to read it.

One thing we can probably agree on is the Falcons are working hard to trade down from #3 and aquire more picks. When even the board moderator makes a comment about trading down, you know the trade down rumors around the Branch must be pretty heavy.

But, what does that reveal about our true interest in Jake Long or Glen Dorsey or Matt Ryah? That we believe we can build a winning team without them, because trading down almost certainly means we miss out on one (if not all) of them. If we were really targeting one of these guys as a must have player, we would not be trading down.

Forgoing Long, Dorsey, and Ryan would also indicate the Falcons have targeted a number of players later in the draft that can fill those positional needs for us.  Not surprising, since the core of most teams is not built with 1st rounders, but 2nd-5th round players.

So what do we do with the 2nd round picks? After having traded down in the 1st to aquire more picks, does it make sense to turn around and trade away those picks (and then some) to move back into the 1st round? Not really.

Given that the Browns had to burn a future first round pick and then some to move back into the 1st round to draft Quinn, we'd probably be looking at giving up two 2nd round picks and a little more.

The scenario that fits our draft philosophy is we take advantage of having extra picks at the top of the 2nd and trade at least one down with a team that sees a player they covet slipping into the 2nd. Turning our early 2nd into a md-late 2nd and 3rd round pick.

So who do we draft? it doesn't seem we're worried about missing out on the linemen in the early 1st. We aren't going to trade up into the 1st for a QB, but it also doesn't make sense that we are going to risk missing our QB by sitting pat in the 2nd and waiting on our guy to fall (when QB is the one position we must fill in this draft.) 

The writing on the wall would seem to indicate:

1st: trade down and draft a QB.

2nd & 3rd: one trade down, use the extra picks to establish a core for the team for years to come (with a focus on the lines.)

Why we will end up drafting 12th in the 1st round

This is going to involve two trades. A rarity, but I think the ground work is there. We've let out the info that we want to trade down, and we aren't locked in to drafting any single player. This is the key to trading down.

All of a sudden the Falcons' interest in Ryan is smoking hot. Maybe it is, but it also puts on notice to any team that if they are really interested in Ryan, he won't make it past #3. The Cheifs, and definitly Baltimore, are going to make a tough decision come draft day. Trade up to #3 or run a high risk of missing on Ryan.

The other trade that has only been hinted at is the Patriots trading up to #3 and drafting Gholston. Very un-patriot like? Sure, but lately they've done a number of things that are un-patriot like.

Gholston looks to be a better version of Demarcus Ware in a 3-4 defense. Ware has wreaked havoc on offenses. There is a chance he could go to the Raiders at #4, but won't get past the Jets, which means the Patriots will have to face him twice a year.

If the Patriots jump ahead of the Jets to get Gholston, it will not only help the Pats' defense, it will hurt a division rival. This logic also applies to the Jets, who may see a need to jump up to prevent the Pats from jumping ahead of them.

In any case, I think the Ravens are the most likely trading partner, although the Pats and Jets are also in the mix.

1st trade, down to #8 with Ravens.

By the 8th pick either Ellis or Dorsey will be gone, but not both. The Bengals at #9 need a DT in the worse way, but they have a couple of other options also, so I think they will be willing to sit and take whoever falls to them (if Ellis or Dorsey are there, they will jump on them in a minute.)

Enter the Broncos and the #12 pick. The Broncos have been on a mission to find a DT. If they want a DT, they will have to get ahead of Cincy.  They will.

2nd trade, down to #12 with Denver.

At 12, our options are going to be OT (Clady, Williams, or Otah) or a QB (probably Brohm.)  Either would be a great value for us, and fill a big need.

This only works if 1. the Falcons don't become fixated on having to draft a specific player (say Ellis), and 2. the Falcons demand less than the trade value chart to for their pick. If the Falcons were close to competing, they could fixate on a player, or hold out for more picks in a trade, but they aren't. The Falcons need to add  quality players at almost every position, so the smart thing for them to do is add as many 1st day picks (even future ones) as possible.

I think the most likely pick at #12 is a QB, it just makes more sense than working so hard to aquire the extra draft pick then just turning around and giving them away to trade back up into the 1st for a QB (which is what we'll have to do if we don't draft a QB at #12.

[canadianfalcon47]

If TD is looking to trade down, then it would only be once.

[Winners Win]

I like the double trade, but to be honest.. there is a point where you have TOO many picks so I would love to package some picks to move up if we really like a player. Think about it.. If you have a draft of about 12 players... unless you do some FO magic, thats a lot of players with their contracts coming up around the same time, and You'd like to spread that out as much as you can.

[Herr Doktor]

I can see this scenario playing out.  More picks is really what we are after, for the next few years.  First rounders aren't the be all, end all.  The second through 5th is where teams are built, well said.

[Nono]

I like trading down to the Broncos or Ravens------I think the top ten college picks are iffy at times and aren't what we need right along with a huge salary.

We can get the beef on the DL and OL with our 4 2nd picks and 3rd round picks plus any compensation for trading down.

Good post, I hope it happens

[Brookhaven]

canadianfalcon47 (4/21/2008)

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If TD is looking to trade down, then it would only be once.

Because??? It can't be the "too many picks" argument, because these trades could be for future picks (which would avoid too many picks) just as well as for picks this year.

[muskokas finest ©]

I can't see the sense in trading out of the elite player bracket into the second tier.

[Brookhaven]

muskokas finest (4/21/2008)

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I can't see the sense in trading out of the elite player bracket into the second tier.

"Elite" players don't make winning teams. A lot of quality players do.

[dan krise]

no

[pzummo]

I don't think there's a high likelihood of us trading down twice from the 1st spot.  Most trade plans are done before the draft even starts, especially with them dropping it down to 10 minutes per pick (rather than 15 previously).  Being given 5 less minutes to pick really reduces the likelihood of draft day deals getting done on the fly, most early round trades will be pre-arranged.  With that being the case, even if we had a deal for our 3rd overall pick in place today, we still wouldn't be able to start negotiating whichever pick we drop down to until draft day.  First off, we don't know if the player is going to be available at 3 to finalize the deal until the draft is already underway.  Secondly, even if we could guarantee it 100%, we can't tip our hand and start negotiating a 6th overall pick to teams, because then those other teams will know our trade partner and more than likely what they are trading up to get.  It's a cat and mouse game and you are not tipping your hand before draft day.  This makes it very unlikely for any team to trade down twice from a spot this high in the draft.  Not impossible, but unlikely.  I would love to see us fall down to 12th though.

[TheDirtyWordII]

I am feeling more and more confident in the first scenario occurring, but I do not feel the same about your deal to get us to #12.

For one, I find it extremely interesting that the 'buzz' now eminating from Atlanta has us hot for Matt Ryan considering Steve McNair's retirement announcement.  If you look at this from Baltimore's POV - while they would have loved for Ryan to fall to them at #8 which would have allowed for a seamless apprenticeship under McNair, I think they would have lived with the notion of not being able to get Ryan if he was picked earlier.  Now, they are almost backed into a corner.

The problem now is that if they want a shot at the big 4 (Ryan, Henne, Brohm, Flacco) the obstacles that stand in their way are this...

A) Atlanta (3 picks); Jets (2 picks); KC (2 picks), Miami (1 pick); Tampa Bay (1 pick); Chicago (1 pick) are all teams that could viably be linked to picking a QB with their 1st/2nd rounder - and I'm not counting Miami's #1 overall pick.  That's a total of 10 possible destination slots for QB's at the top of this draft.  If you know Atlanta is going to pick one and Miami has John Beck, KC has Brodie Croyle, the Jets have Kellen Clemens - right there that's 4 teams who have to be looking high.  Tampa and Chicago have issues as well...

Baltimore has little ammunition to deal from.  Most of their picks are compensatory.  The viable picks they have to deal this year are #8, #38, #106.  That's not much.  Using the #8 pick as bait if they want to position themselves to get a QB is probably their best bet.

Top 10 deals IMO only happen when the team absolutely has to make them.  I think Baltimore is in that position.

I think the deal gets done as follows: #3 for #8, #38, 2009 3rd rounder

As for the Denver possibility...I know Denver's run defense stinks, but I think you can fix that in a multitude of ways.  While DT is the obvious, you can still build along the lines...at LB.  Plus, the Broncos have a gaping hole at LT, so I think they would simply be hesitant to deal up and give away draft picks.  I just don't see the compelling event for Denver like I do Baltimore.  Baltimore almost has to trade up.

[texasbirdfan]

Brookhaven may be right about the 2nd trade with the Broncos, but I believe if Dimitroff got to the first trade down and McFadden was still there (a possibility), the Cowboys would come calling with their 2 1st rounders.

[texasbirdfan]

pzummo (4/21/2008)

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I don't think there's a high likelihood of us trading down twice from the 1st spot.  Most trade plans are done before the draft even starts, especially with them dropping it down to 10 minutes per pick (rather than 15 previously).  Being given 5 less minutes to pick really reduces the likelihood of draft day deals getting done on the fly, most early round trades will be pre-arranged.  With that being the case, even if we had a deal for our 3rd overall pick in place today, we still wouldn't be able to start negotiating whichever pick we drop down to until draft day.  First off, we don't know if the player is going to be available at 3 to finalize the deal until the draft is already underway.  Secondly, even if we could guarantee it 100%, we can't tip our hand and start negotiating a 6th overall pick to teams, because then those other teams will know our trade partner and more than likely what they are trading up to get.  It's a cat and mouse game and you are not tipping your hand before draft day.  This makes it very unlikely for any team to trade down twice from a spot this high in the draft.  Not impossible, but unlikely.  I would love to see us fall down to 12th though.

I respectfully disagree.  Once we trade down to the first level we have 1/2 to an hour to negotiate with other teams that have yet to pick.  The NFL staff's in charge of drafting drill over and over again and rehearse all scenarios much like a Nascar tire change pit crew.

It takes one phone call from Baltimore to say will you trade first round picks and we throw in a 2nd (2008 or 9)  Dimitroff already knows what he will say to that yesterday.

.

[Brookhaven]

TheDirtyWordII (4/21/2008)

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As for the Denver possibility...I know Denver's run defense stinks, but I think you can fix that in a multitude of ways.  While DT is the obvious, you can still build along the lines...at LB.  Plus, the Broncos have a gaping hole at LT, so I think they would simply be hesitant to deal up and give away draft picks.  I just don't see the compelling event for Denver like I do Baltimore.  Baltimore almost has to trade up.

Denver doesn't have a history of taking o-linemen (even tackles) early. The did a few years ago, but their mindset is still strongly oriented towards using later picks on linemen.

They've been turning over every stone to find a DT. They are still even considering trading draft picks for a DT that has actually FAILED A PHYSICAL for another team. My guess is we would be looking at a future 2nd round pick from Denver (and since every team thinks they will be in the superbowl next year) they probably would consider that a better deal than makiing the Robertson (sp?) trade.