Matthew Pritts Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 This is a cut N paste job from TATF and another poster, but this was a very well-thought out thread and I figured I would bring it over here to provoke some discussion,...................................................................................................... Alright I've spent the morning looking at 1st round QBs from the 02 draft to the 06 draft(yeah I've got some spare time). I wanted to go back further but finding adequate stats for QBs pre-2000 is a ##### to say the least.I've found some trends and some things that make you think WTF was that FO thinking. This is certainly no end all be all for QB breakdowns, nor is it fool proof. Just some info I thought I would share.I'll start with the most glaring trend I have found. QBs with 2 or fewer years starting experience have a 99.9% BUST rate. These are: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Alex Smith, and JP Losman. Arron Rogers would make this 100% if he bombs in Green Bay.The best draft for QBs was 2004 and they all have something in common. Atleast 3 years with 3000+ yards, and a 2-1 TD/INT ratio. Eli, Ben, and Phillip Rivers are in this category and make up 99% of the above average QB group of this time period.The current middle of the road QBs all display a "mediocre" college career as well. They had 3 years of starting experience but were never "world beaters". These include Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, and Rex Grossman(not sure what to classify him as, so I stuck him here).Now the exceptions to this form of analyzing were Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich. Palmer had 1 great year, while Leftwich had 3 great years in college. So for this type of breakdown they broke the trend. Leftwich for all intent and purposes feel victim to injuries.Leinart hasn't had enough time to fit into any of these categories and I'm probably not being completely fair to Jay Cutler or Vince Young. Neither of these 3 have had enough time to say one way or the other. Now does this definitively prove anything? No it does not. But it does give us some idea of what we should be looking for *STATISTICALLY* if we're picking a first round QB.Using this system only Brohm and Chad Henne have first round grades(I refuse to put Colt Brennan in this group...but if you want to, you can). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Pritts Posted April 16, 2008 Author Share Posted April 16, 2008 BUMP! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSlick Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 Using this system only Brohm and Chad Henne have first round grades(I refuse to put Colt Brennan in this group...but if you want to, you can).That's funny. These are my top two guys. Reinforces my belief these are the two best QB's in the draft behind Matt Ryan.Personally, I think Ryan is the most talented and has the highest ceiling for a QB. I just think he will be as good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayoh Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 I'm sorry, but who said we were drafting a 1st round QB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Offseason Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 ive been talking about this for weeks, it is from an espn insider article that someone posted in this forum. they talk about the same players and how 33-35 games + of starting experience with a 60% comp or higher in college has produced peyton manning, donovan mcnabb, etc. and players with less or substantially less have been guys like: harrington, leaf, boller, leftwich, yadda yadda.its remarkable but its very interesting to think about. especially since ryan has about 30 games and a 59.3% comp. he is right on the border in this order of thinking. whereas guys like brohm, henne, woodson and josh johnson are above and beyond qualified to be in the manning/mcnabb group purely based on statistics. henne actually is on the border of the 60% comp too, with a 59.7% comp i believe for his career.anyways, its interesting to think about. if we end up with ryan i will be very unhappy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick h Posted April 17, 2008 Share Posted April 17, 2008 i think this is very valid actually. brian brohm exceeds these expectations too. played and started all four years and was a beast from the get go. henne has been far too inconsistent for me to think about taking him before around 40 so if we take him either 37 or 48. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Pritts Posted April 17, 2008 Author Share Posted April 17, 2008 nick h (4/16/2008)i think this is very valid actually. brian brohm exceeds these expectations too. played and started all four years and was a beast from the get go. henne has been far too inconsistent for me to think about taking him before around 40 so if we take him either 37 or 48.For the last time, Henne was never inconsistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Pritts Posted April 17, 2008 Author Share Posted April 17, 2008 Welcome to Atlanta (4/16/2008)I'm sorry, but who said we were drafting a 1st round QB?It definitely won't be that project Johnson that you keep pushing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Offseason Posted April 17, 2008 Share Posted April 17, 2008 Matthew Pritts (4/16/2008)nick h (4/16/2008)i think this is very valid actually. brian brohm exceeds these expectations too. played and started all four years and was a beast from the get go. henne has been far too inconsistent for me to think about taking him before around 40 so if we take him either 37 or 48.For the last time, Henne was never inconsistent.no... he was consistently inconsistent.so in that regard, he certainly was consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethanga62890 Posted April 17, 2008 Share Posted April 17, 2008 Henne was the epitome of consistency, the problem is has he already reached his potential? I'm high on Henne because i believe he HASN'T reached his potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Pritts Posted April 17, 2008 Author Share Posted April 17, 2008 Ethanga62890 (4/17/2008)Henne was the epitome of consistency, the problem is has he already reached his potential? I'm high on Henne because i believe he HASN'T reached his potential.Also known as Peyton Manning syndrome.But Peyton played in a much more passing frienddly offense then Henne did. Nice to have someone else on the Henne badwagon. Welcome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Pritts Posted April 17, 2008 Author Share Posted April 17, 2008 Mr. Offseason (4/17/2008)Matthew Pritts (4/16/2008)nick h (4/16/2008)i think this is very valid actually. brian brohm exceeds these expectations too. played and started all four years and was a beast from the get go. henne has been far too inconsistent for me to think about taking him before around 40 so if we take him either 37 or 48.For the last time, Henne was never inconsistent.no... he was consistently inconsistent.so in that regard, he certainly was consistent. Nope, you're wrong.Henne played in a very conservative passing offense, so if anything, he hasn't reached his full potential yet.And yes, he was consistent. Never below a 58% comp. rate in any one year in his career at Michigan.Nice try, though. :P I'm not budging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.