Matthew Pritts Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 This is a cut N paste job from TATF and another poster, but this was a very well-thought out thread and I figured I would bring it over here to provoke some discussion,...................................................................................................... Alright I've spent the morning looking at 1st round QBs from the 02 draft to the 06 draft(yeah I've got some spare time). I wanted to go back further but finding adequate stats for QBs pre-2000 is a ##### to say the least.I've found some trends and some things that make you think WTF was that FO thinking. This is certainly no end all be all for QB breakdowns, nor is it fool proof. Just some info I thought I would share.I'll start with the most glaring trend I have found. QBs with 2 or fewer years starting experience have a 99.9% BUST rate. These are: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Alex Smith, and JP Losman. Arron Rogers would make this 100% if he bombs in Green Bay.The best draft for QBs was 2004 and they all have something in common. Atleast 3 years with 3000+ yards, and a 2-1 TD/INT ratio. Eli, Ben, and Phillip Rivers are in this category and make up 99% of the above average QB group of this time period.The current middle of the road QBs all display a "mediocre" college career as well. They had 3 years of starting experience but were never "world beaters". These include Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, and Rex Grossman(not sure what to classify him as, so I stuck him here).Now the exceptions to this form of analyzing were Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich. Palmer had 1 great year, while Leftwich had 3 great years in college. So for this type of breakdown they broke the trend. Leftwich for all intent and purposes feel victim to injuries.Leinart hasn't had enough time to fit into any of these categories and I'm probably not being completely fair to Jay Cutler or Vince Young. Neither of these 3 have had enough time to say one way or the other. Now does this definitively prove anything? No it does not. But it does give us some idea of what we should be looking for *STATISTICALLY* if we're picking a first round QB.Using this system only Brohm and Chad Henne have first round grades(I refuse to put Colt Brennan in this group...but if you want to, you can). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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