TDWII's Observation: The Matt Ryan Situation...

[TheDirtyWordII]

I have withheld judgment on the possibility and prospects for Matt Ryan to this point.  As we draw closer to the draft, let me share my thoughts on the prospects of the Falcons drafting him:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

 

One year ago, JaMarcus Russell turned out to be the consensus #1 QB in the draft.  One year later, his weight and work ethic are under significant scrutiny.  While his physical talents are immense and can t be questioned, his desire seems to be.  Is the criticism unfair?  Yes.  But that doesn t matter as a perceived savior of a franchise, the microscope that Russell and other #1 pick QB s are under is intense until they wind up proving themselves. Once they do, they become the franchise centerpiece and the scrutiny intensifies even more.  The only thing that changes is the confidence in the player to handle the spotlight at the pro level.

 

As such, if you are going to make a QB the centerpiece of your entire franchise, you have to be completely and utterly sold on the fact the player under consideration is THE one.  When I see the process that the Falcons have undertaken with regard to their #3 pick, I can t help but think that they have not sold themselves on Matt Ryan as being this essential building block.

 

When I think of Ryan, the QB that comes to mind of who he reminds me of is Carson Palmer.  I m not speaking from a talent perspective, but more from a situation perspective.  Going into his senior year, Palmer also was not viewed as a top overall pick but his senior season performance raised his profile and he wound up going #1 to <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Cincinnati even though they had an adequate player at the position.  Ryan falls into that same type of development.  Is his talent along the lines of Palmer s.  I don t think so.  But his career arc is very similar.  And if you remember, that was the off-season where Marvin Lewis took over as the head honcho of the Bengals with significant front office influence and decision making ability.  Remember, this was the draft with Byron Leftwich, Terrence Newman, Jimmy Kennedy and Dewayne Robertson.  It was clear at a very early point though that Palmer was the Bengals man.  You could see it from the way they spoke about him and dealt with him.  Does anyone get that impression with Ryan and the Falcons?  I know they have the #3 pick, but as it relates to Ryan, does it matter?

 

My perception of the Falcons draft evaluation process has been one that has increasingly centered around Glenn Dorsey.  As far as Ryan is concerned, the Falcons are pretty much secure in their knowledge that if they want him they ve got him.  But by in large, you haven t seen the Falcons romance Ryan all that much.  He s simply been lumped in with all the other possibilities and options at the #3 slot.  For me, if you are considering a QB at a slot that high, shouldn t he be put through a more stringent evaluation process?  If you draft Dorsey at #3, he doesn t automatically turn into a THE franchise centerpiece.  He certainly becomes a huge building block, but the identity of the Falcons is not intrinsically tied to him immediately.  As for Ryan though he immediately slips into that role.  Have the Falcons put him through the ringer?  Maybe/maybe not...but they haven't even played him up that much and there are 3 legitmate teams in the the Top 8 that could potentially draft Ryan.  Wouldn't they at least play that card?

 

It also seems as if scouts are divided on Ryan just as much as the fan base is.  While I don t think a front office should make decisions based on how they ll be perceived outside the organization, in some ways drafting Ryan is just that.  Drafting a face of the franchise something I can t understand the concept of in the first place.

 

At the end of the day though, I simply feel that the Falcons courtship of Matt Ryan has been lukewarm.  It s one thing to not get the guy you want and if in fact Dorsey is not available, then that s just the way the cookie crumbled.  But to draft the perceived consolation prize and then position him as the franchise QB you plan to build around& well, that seems a little off-key for what brief record we have of this regime.  We didn t wine and dine Michael Turner to have him leave town.  And in an off-season in which rebuilding the image of the Falcons has taken as prominent a role as rebuilding the Falcons, packaging Matt Ryan after such an indifferent recruitment process could not be considered a win.

 

Does that mean I don t think Ryan could be a great QB?  Noone knows.  Alex Smith and David Carr went #1 overall so we know that even the best in the business in trying to forecast these things don t really know either.  What we do know though is that neither franchise has had much luck since those missteps.  If you are going to misstep, I d want to at least know the front office was fully committed to Ryan.  I haven t seen any inclination this is the case.

 

And that gives me serious reason for pause&

[Jaymadd]

I agree, It does seem like that Falcons are not sold enough to draft Ryan even if Dorsey is gone before the 3rd pick. 

[Rusty Shackleford]

"It was clear at a very early point though that Palmer was the Bengals man. You could see it from the way they spoke about him and dealt with him."

Might I add that he was chosen and contracts were negotiated before the draft. Good post.

[Dr. Doom]

Rusty Shackleford (4/15/2008)

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"It was clear at a very early point though that Palmer was the Bengals man. You could see it from the way they spoke about him and dealt with him."

Might I add that he was chosen and contracts were negotiated before the draft. Good post.

Dosen't mean anything seeing how the AJC, ESPN, NFL are quick to report things before they actually happen. 

[Big Duke 6]

Private workouts dont sound interested?I cant wait until the draft to talk about who we got and not this other stuff.

[Art Vandalay]

Good post. Ryan seems good but not great. I think the Falcons would be making a big mistake to put the Franchise in the hands of a rookie without a decent line. At least if we draft a qb later he won't have the pressure of being the savior.

[Jerry Maguire]

From my perspective, i think it's obvious that the Falcons want Glenn Dorsey at 3. However, the Falcons have prepared themselves in case he goes #2, and will try to trade down and acquire Ryan, Gholston, McKelvin, or Otah in such a scenario. If a trade down is not possible, I'm really not sure which way they go. Gil brandt has said that the Falcons have shown a good bit of interest with Ryan, including the owner meeting with him. Dorsey and Ryan are the only two prospects that Blank has personally met that I know of. If that is true, I suspect Ryan is the guy if Dorsey is gone. Or at least Gil Brandt thinks so.

[dyoshot]

I have seen Matt Ryan play his entire career. Not every game, but a lot of them. I think he will be a good QB in the league, but not worth the #3 pick. Not very athletic, doesn't have a lot of arm strength, and I just never saw anything from him at any point that would indicate this guy is a star. When you draft someone #3 overall, they BETTER be a star. At that high I want Eli, Peyton, Big Ben, those stars.

Chris Mortenson said Tony Dungy was telling him unless it's a Peyton Manning type, he would NEVER draft a QB in the top 5. Just because there are so few QB's that can take that kind of scrutiny and actually turn a team around. I'm not going to call him a bust, but I hope the Falcons do not draft him this high.

[itsslomotionbaby]

Art Vandalay (4/15/2008)

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Good post. Ryan seems good but not great. I think the Falcons would be making a big mistake to put the Franchise in the hands of a rookie without a decent line. At least if we draft a qb later he won't have the pressure of being the savior.

i could not agree with you more it scares me when they say he reminds you of joey harrington,i think we would be getting a matt schaub clone at best.

[d-rod]

You can't believe anything that is said by anyone at this time of year.

One VERY good reason for the staff not to slobber all over Ryan is that they may be holding out for a trade down, still to get Ryan. By suggesting that they'll take Dorsey or Long, they might get a trade offer that they wouldn't otherwise get.

Also, the MOST obvious reason, is that they could be afraid of another team trading up ahead of them.

Let's say, for example, the Chiefs might also want Ryan. And they might, they're certainly acting that way. They know that the Dolphins, Rams and Raiders won't take him. If they think that we won't take him, they should feel that they can get him at #5. If however, they think that we WILL take him, they'll think about trading up with the Rams. And the Rams may well be willing to trade down.

So, no, it is not altogether in our own hands, and there are plenty of good reasons for not tipping our hand either way.

By the way, even if we were slobbering all over Ryan, it would just as likely be a bluff...

We'll only know when draft day rolls around...

[nevesmetro]

d-rod (4/16/2008)

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the MOST obvious reason, is that they could be afraid of another team trading up ahead of them.

Let's say, for example, the Chiefs might also want Ryan. And they might, they're certainly acting that way. They know that the Dolphins, Rams and Raiders won't take him. If they think that we won't take him, they should feel that they can get him at #5. If however, they think that we WILL take him, they'll think about trading up with the Rams. And the Rams may well be willing to trade down.

This is true. IF we want Ryan then we have done more than enough to draft Ryan. Everyone has met with him and we spent the weekend in Boston.

Personally I want Dorsey but there is a chance (no matter how small) that all the Dorsey talk is a bluff to get Ryan without the chance of any other team moving up. You can never say never, no chance or no way when dealing with other peoples thoughts and actions.