Jump to content

For the Matt Ryan lovers: "Good reasons to pass on QBs high in the draft"


sporkdevil
 Share

Recommended Posts

"

Posted: March 29, 2008

If the 2005 draft were held again, Alex Smith could forget about being the No. 1 pick.

Braylon Edwards (No. 3), Shawne Merriman (No. 12), Luis Castillo (No. 28), and Logan Mankins (No. 32) were all drafted after Smith that year. While those non-quarterbacks have become NFL standouts, Smith has not come close to becoming the 49ers' franchise quarterback. Now he's locked in a battle with Shaun Hill for the starting job.

Smith's struggles illustrate why many teams will pass on drafting a quarterback in the first round this year. The Dolphins (No. 1), the Falcons (No. 3), the Chiefs (No. 5), the Ravens (No. 8), the Panthers (No. 13), the Bears (No. 14), and the Vikings (No. 17) all could use an upgrade at quarterback. But this is not a vintage draft for quarterbacks, like 2006, when Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler all went in the first round. Or 2004, when Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were first-round picks.

Matt Ryan of Boston College and Brian Brohm of Louisville may be the only quarterbacks taken in the first round this year. Even Brohm could slide out of the first round, and the thinking would be understandable. Taking a quarterback with a high draft pick is a serious commitment. You pay him a ton of money. You count on him to master the game's most demanding and most important position. Even the good ones usually take at least two seasons to become comfortable as a starter. And if you draft a quarterback with your top pick, and he turns out to be a bust, it sets your franchise back a few seasons. It might also cost you your job.

That is where 49ers head coach Mike Nolan is with Smith. Nolan's future may depend largely on how well Smith plays. This will be Smith's fourth NFL season, and if he does not turn the corner and become a dependable starter, chances are he never will. And if a healthy Smith fails to beat out Hill for the starting job, it will clearly show that the 49ers made a huge mistake drafting Smith No. 1

During a conference call with Bay Area reporters Thursday, Smith reportedly said all the right things. Smith said his rift with Nolan had been mended. He said that his surgically-repaired throwing shoulder was healing properly.

Yet no matter what Smith says, his performance will tell the real story. These are his career numbers: 19 touchdowns passes, 31 interceptions, a 63.9 passer rating.

Those numbers do not remind you of Joe Montana, but Smith should not take all the blame. He has worked with a different offensive coordinator every season with the 49ers, and that lack of continuity has only made his development more challenging.

Mike Martz is the 49ers' new offensive coordinator, and he was brought in largely because of his reputation as a quarterback guru. But at this point, the 49ers have paid a steep price for drafting Smith at No. 1. Unless you are really confident about a quarterback, taking one with a high draft pick is not worth the risk.

Clifton Brown is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at cliftonbrown@sportingnews.com. "

Matt Ryan has no reason to be a top prospect, and we will get scrubbed out for 2 years minimum if we draft him. We should be very positive about a QB we draft, and to pay $30 million guaranteed to a guy who is very shady statistically, and a guy who the best thing said about him is his "intangibles", he should not be a top pick. Off the chart intangibles and acceptable physical stats is absolutely not a reason to draft someone, that is a reason to pass on someone. We need a guy with some game time experience putting up the stats that deem a top 3 pick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I remember correct Alex Smith was always regarding as a "could be great QB" and many many said he was more of a gamble then a sure fire. I have the same feeling about Matt Ryan and if we have to take a QB with the #3 overall I would take Brohm over Ryan.

This year they are all hot on Ryan but Brohm was a sure first round ( if not top 5 ) last year and this year again - thi shows that he didnt have a lucky season and 1-2 impressive games but CONSISTANTLY was good.

But I would prefer the #3 pick to be Jake Long, Vernon Golsthon or Dorsey ( if the FO thinks he can stay healthy ). All of them would be great picks ( Gholston has the phyiscal tools be a great DE AND MLB - Brooking wont be around forever ) and most likely be worth the #3 money.

QB can be filled with prospects in later round and here I would prefer Johnson - if we can get him in the 3rd round he´ll be cheap and we wont waste millions in cap money for a QB on the bench which we arent even sure if he´s worth it.

If JJ doesnt become a starter after 3 years we can let him go without even regretting it cap wise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dan Reeves knew what he was getting in Vick.Vick was a winner but not traditional.Matt Ryan will not be a bad QB but we have so much bigger needs then him and cant waste any picks or money on a prospect.

Dorsey will be huge for us for years.There are others but he looks NFL ready now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The bottom line is that teams that need help at QB have to place their faith in someone, whether its a 1st round pick, 2nd rounder, a day 2 pick or an expensive FA (look at the money that Schaub received last year, depsite having minimal experience). Whoever it is, there is risk invovled and it will set the franchise back a few years if you place our faith in the wrong player. You'd hope that the FO gets it right, and that a guy taken in the first or second round would be more likely to suceed than a mid or late round selection.

As for the money, the #3 picks will cost us about the same money whether we spend it on a QB, OT, DT or a Punter. Contracts reflect where the player is selected more than his position. Whoever we take at #3 they will get a $50m contract and there is a risk that thety won't pan out and the money will be wasted. Ryan could be a bust, but then so could anybody else. The only way to mitigate that risk is to trade down.

Just look at our options... Jake Long has to many Qs about his pass blocking to go #3, Gholston/C. Long would be a wasted pick for a team that has spent 1st round picks on DE for the last 2 years, DT isn't a premier position and Dorsey or Ellis would become the highest paid DTs in the NFL if they get #3 money (making DT arguably the riskiest pick of all), McFadden doesn't address a need, and Ryan is a huge reach at #3. Personally, i'm hoping we can engineer a trade with someone who is desparate for Long or Gholston or McFadden, because I'm not convincved that anybody out there reperesents good value for us at #3. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ukfalc (3/30/2008)
The bottom line is that teams that need help at QB have to place their faith in someone, whether its a 1st round pick, 2nd rounder, a day 2 pick or an expensive FA (look at the money that Schaub received last year, depsite having minimal experience). Whoever it is, there is risk invovled and it will set the franchise back a few years if you place our faith in the wrong player. You'd hope that the FO gets it right, and that a guy taken in the first or second round would be more likely to suceed than a mid or late round selection.

As for the money, the #3 picks will cost us about the same money whether we spend it on a QB, OT, DT or a Punter. Contracts reflect where the player is selected more than his position. Whoever we take at #3 they will get a $50m contract and there is a risk that thety won't pan out and the money will be wasted. Ryan could be a bust, but then so could anybody else. The only way to mitigate that risk is to trade down.

Just look at our options... Jake Long has to many Qs about his pass blocking to go #3, Gholston/C. Long would be a wasted pick for a team that has spent 1st round picks on DE for the last 2 years, DT isn't a premier position and Dorsey or Ellis would become the highest paid DTs in the NFL if they get #3 money (making DT arguably the riskiest pick of all), McFadden doesn't address a need, and Ryan is a huge reach at #3. Personally, i'm hoping we can engineer a trade with someone who is desparate for Long or Gholston or McFadden, because I'm not convincved that anybody out there reperesents good value for us at #3. 

Excellent point - the last quote was a mistake(not an excellent point)on previous post.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The draft is a crap shoot, plain & simple. You take a risk no matter who you pick early. QB's are just the highest profile players around & more is made out of it in the media when they don't pan out. This risk happens every time you make a pick & if your biggest need is say OT, and you draft a (let's use the 2004 draft) Robert Gallery, then you've set your OL back another year or two as well, it's just not as publicized.

Look at the Detroit Lions. They are a team that has been consistently one of the worst in the league. In 2004 they passed up the opportunity to draft Roethlisberger. In 2005 they passed on both Aaron Rodgers & Jason Campbell. In 2006 they passed on both Leinart & Cutler. All 5 of those QB's will be NFL starters next year & the Lions are still without a legit QB.

Passing on the right guy can be just a detrimental to your team as selecting the wrong person.

It's JMO that your article doesn't prove anything in regards to drafting Ryan at #3. If we pass on him & he does turn out to be a good NFL QB & the guy we take in round 2 fails, then did it help us by not drafting Ryan? No, it sets us back 3 to 4 years.

And, before it said, I'm NOT a "draft Ryan" guy. I don't think he's worth a top 5 pick. Top 10 yes, and the best QB in the draft, but top 5 no.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Robb4242 (3/30/2008)
The draft is a crap shoot, plain & simple. You take a risk no matter who you pick early. QB's are just the highest profile players around & more is made out of it in the media when they don't pan out. This risk happens every time you make a pick & if your biggest need is say OT, and you draft a (let's use the 2004 draft) Robert Gallery, then you've set your OL back another year or two as well, it's just not as publicized.

Look at the Detroit Lions. They are a team that has been consistently one of the worst in the league. In 2004 they passed up the opportunity to draft Roethlisberger. In 2005 they passed on both Aaron Rodgers & Jason Campbell. In 2006 they passed on both Leinart & Cutler. All 5 of those QB's will be NFL starters next year & the Lions are still without a legit QB.

Passing on the right guy can be just a detrimental to your team as selecting the wrong person.

It's JMO that your article doesn't prove anything in regards to drafting Ryan at #3. If we pass on him & he does turn out to be a good NFL QB & the guy we take in round 2 fails, then did it help us by not drafting Ryan? No, it sets us back 3 to 4 years.

And, before it said, I'm NOT a "draft Ryan" guy. I don't think he's worth a top 5 pick. Top 10 yes, and the best QB in the draft, but top 5 no.

The difference is Ryan isn't heads and shoulders above many of the QBs planned on going later in the first or 2nd round and we have many picks in that area. Sure every pick is a risk but the risk level is multiplied when selecting a QB just because of the nature of the position in the NFL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winners Win (3/30/2008)

The difference is Ryan isn't heads and shoulders above many of the QBs planned on going later in the first or 2nd round and we have many picks in that area. Sure every pick is a risk but the risk level is multiplied when selecting a QB just because of the nature of the position in the NFL.

Fair point.

Of course, the danger with waiting is that it is then out of your hands, because the player(s)than you covet may get picked before we pick in the 2nd round - unless you are willing and able to trade back up in to the first round.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winners Win (3/30/2008)
Robb4242 (3/30/2008)
The draft is a crap shoot, plain & simple. You take a risk no matter who you pick early. QB's are just the highest profile players around & more is made out of it in the media when they don't pan out. This risk happens every time you make a pick & if your biggest need is say OT, and you draft a (let's use the 2004 draft) Robert Gallery, then you've set your OL back another year or two as well, it's just not as publicized.

Look at the Detroit Lions. They are a team that has been consistently one of the worst in the league. In 2004 they passed up the opportunity to draft Roethlisberger. In 2005 they passed on both Aaron Rodgers & Jason Campbell. In 2006 they passed on both Leinart & Cutler. All 5 of those QB's will be NFL starters next year & the Lions are still without a legit QB.

Passing on the right guy can be just a detrimental to your team as selecting the wrong person.

It's JMO that your article doesn't prove anything in regards to drafting Ryan at #3. If we pass on him & he does turn out to be a good NFL QB & the guy we take in round 2 fails, then did it help us by not drafting Ryan? No, it sets us back 3 to 4 years.

And, before it said, I'm NOT a "draft Ryan" guy. I don't think he's worth a top 5 pick. Top 10 yes, and the best QB in the draft, but top 5 no.

The difference is Ryan isn't heads and shoulders above many of the QBs planned on going later in the first or 2nd round and we have many picks in that area. Sure every pick is a risk but the risk level is multiplied when selecting a QB just because of the nature of the position in the NFL.

Then we have some disagreement on where Ryan ranks in this draft. I do see Ryan, from a talent standpoint, as head & shoulders above Henne & Flacco. The gap, IMO, is closer between him & Brohm, but Ryan still easily has the most upside of the two. Ryan does have faults, as all players do, but most of his are correctable with coaching.

I do agree with you on the multiplication of risks when you move a guy up a draft board because of his position and the lack of other players/talent at that position. That's why drafting Ryan would be a huge gamble for us, especially since we don't have the OL in place.

A perfect example of the multiplication of risks in this years draft is Kenny Phillips. Talent wise, he's a 2nd round pick. But the safety position is so weak in this years draft, he's going to end up going in the 1st round to a team that needs a safety & unless his weaknesses can be covered up, he's going to be a huge bust for some team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, you don't like Matt Ryan, I understand that. Stating that "Matt Ryan has no reason to be a top prospect, and we will get scrubbed out for 2 years minimum if we draft him" is an absolute joke. Unless you have discovered time travel and have seen it, you don't know any more about his ability to succeed than any other prospect.

Does not matter if you are draft top 5 of the draft or bottom 5 of the draft. There is no player at any position that is a sure thing. The term "safe" pick may be thrown around but there is no such thing. If you spend 30+ million in guaranteed money on any player that washes out after 2 years its going to set a franchise back just b/c of the financial ramifications.

I keep saying that I'm going to not engage in this type of discussion about Ryan, but it just amazes me how may times I hear that Matt Ryan is not worthy of his rating. If he is a bust then the coin landed on heads when we called tails. The same thing can happen for Jake Long, Glenn Dorsey, Sederick Ellis, Vernon Gohlston, Darren McFadden or any other player that the Falcons or any other team drafts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ukfalc (3/30/2008)
The bottom line is thatteams that need help at QB have to place their faith in someone, whether its a 1st round pick, 2nd rounder,aday 2pick oran expensive FA (look at the money thatSchaub received last year, depsite having minimal experience). Whoever it is, there is risk invovled and it will set the franchise back a few years if you place our faith in the wrong player.You'd hope that the FO gets it right, and that a guy taken in thefirst or second round would bemore likelyto suceed than a mid or late round selection.

As for the money, the #3 picks will cost us about the same money whether we spend it on a QB, OT, DT or a Punter. Contracts reflect where the player isselected more thanhis position. Whoever we take at #3 they will geta $50m contract and thereis a risk that thety won't pan out and the money will be wasted. Ryan could be a bust, but then so could anybody else. The only way to mitigate that risk is to trade down.

Just look at our options... Jake Long has to many Qs about his pass blocking to go #3, Gholston/C. Long would be a wasted pick for a team that has spent 1st round picks on DE for the last 2 years, DT isn't a premier position and Dorsey or Ellis would become the highest paid DTs in the NFL if they get #3 money (making DT arguably the riskiest pick of all), McFadden doesn't address a need, and Ryan is a huge reach at #3.Personally, i'm hoping we can engineer a trade with someone who isdesparate for Long or Gholston or McFadden,because I'm not convincved thatanybody out there reperesents good value for us at #3.

What an outstanding analysis. I live in Carolina. I follow (and root for) the Falcons and the Panthers.

Top ten draft picks have become huge financial burdens and risks because of the rookie salary structure. Jerry Jones recently commented on his reluctance to move up to the top picks for this very reason. These unproven rookies come into the league with salary packages that put them among the top players at their positions.....multi-millionaires overnight and future budget breakers for their teams.

The Panthers are dealing with this problem with Gross and Peppers. Gross came in with a salary like a premiere Left Tackle. His feet are a bit slow and he has only been mediocre at LT. His true position is RT, but he is nothing special at that position. He is now making over 7 million a year which is far too much for just a decent Tackle.......whose initial salary was too high to begin with due to his slot in the draft. As the second pick in the draft, Peppers was paid a fortune coming into the league. He became one of the top players at his position, but like so many of these high picks, they are always looking for raises even when their production falls. Peppers was MIA last year and still wants to be the highest paid defensive player in the league. The Panthers may have to consider moving this guy, because when these guys are paid so much as rookies, they only want a lot more later. His salary demands would cripple the team as far as what they can do in the future.

If at all possible, I hope the Falcons will move down in the draft and avoid taking a budget buster who more than likely will demand a salary that will exceed his actual talent or production. If a truly great player was there at #3, I would say go for it, but all of these guys have major questions. Spread the risk among several players, build the team and trade down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dr Pepper,

I agree the Rookie salary is to high. That's why no one is going to move up to take our position. So, we basically need to draft the best player available. Concensus top 3 right now is Probably Long, Long, &Dorsey. I'd be happy with any of them. You can never have too many lineman.

The following is my dream draft for our first six picks!

3. DT,Glen Dorsey

34. T,Gosder Cherilus

37. QB, Joe Flacco

48. CB, Reggie Smith

68. TE, Fred Davis

99. OT, John Grecco

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sporkdevil (3/29/2008)
"

Posted: March 29, 2008

If the 2005 draft were held again, Alex Smith could forget about being the No. 1 pick.

Braylon Edwards (No. 3), Shawne Merriman (No. 12), Luis Castillo (No. 28), and Logan Mankins (No. 32) were all drafted after Smith that year. While those non-quarterbacks have become NFL standouts, Smith has not come close to becoming the 49ers' franchise quarterback. Now he's locked in a battle with Shaun Hill for the starting job.

Smith's struggles illustrate why many teams will pass on drafting a quarterback in the first round this year. The Dolphins (No. 1), the Falcons (No. 3), the Chiefs (No. 5), the Ravens (No. 8), the Panthers (No. 13), the Bears (No. 14), and the Vikings (No. 17) all could use an upgrade at quarterback. But this is not a vintage draft for quarterbacks, like 2006, when Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler all went in the first round. Or 2004, when Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were first-round picks.

Matt Ryan of Boston College and Brian Brohm of Louisville may be the only quarterbacks taken in the first round this year. Even Brohm could slide out of the first round, and the thinking would be understandable. Taking a quarterback with a high draft pick is a serious commitment. You pay him a ton of money. You count on him to master the game's most demanding and most important position. Even the good ones usually take at least two seasons to become comfortable as a starter. And if you draft a quarterback with your top pick, and he turns out to be a bust, it sets your franchise back a few seasons. It might also cost you your job.

That is where 49ers head coach Mike Nolan is with Smith. Nolan's future may depend largely on how well Smith plays. This will be Smith's fourth NFL season, and if he does not turn the corner and become a dependable starter, chances are he never will. And if a healthy Smith fails to beat out Hill for the starting job, it will clearly show that the 49ers made a huge mistake drafting Smith No. 1

During a conference call with Bay Area reporters Thursday, Smith reportedly said all the right things. Smith said his rift with Nolan had been mended. He said that his surgically-repaired throwing shoulder was healing properly.

Yet no matter what Smith says, his performance will tell the real story. These are his career numbers: 19 touchdowns passes, 31 interceptions, a 63.9 passer rating.

Those numbers do not remind you of Joe Montana, but Smith should not take all the blame. He has worked with a different offensive coordinator every season with the 49ers, and that lack of continuity has only made his development more challenging.

Mike Martz is the 49ers' new offensive coordinator, and he was brought in largely because of his reputation as a quarterback guru. But at this point, the 49ers have paid a steep price for drafting Smith at No. 1. Unless you are really confident about a quarterback, taking one with a high draft pick is not worth the risk.

Clifton Brown is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at cliftonbrown@sportingnews.com. "

Matt Ryan has no reason to be a top prospect, and we will get scrubbed out for 2 years minimum if we draft him. We should be very positive about a QB we draft, and to pay $30 million guaranteed to a guy who is very shady statistically, and a guy who the best thing said about him is his "intangibles", he should not be a top pick. Off the chart intangibles and acceptable physical stats is absolutely not a reason to draft someone, that is a reason to pass on someone. We need a guy with some game time experience putting up the stats that deem a top 3 pick.

He didnt give a eli or peyton reference.Infact he didnt say who we should draft did he?A lot of speculation and 49ers talk.We dont know if ryan is a bust or a starter.I can find a couple of articles from iyer on the sportingnews where he raves about how good ryan is.I dont think most people want another qb regardless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sporkdevil (3/29/2008)
"

Posted: March 29, 2008

If the 2005 draft were held again, Alex Smith could forget about being the No. 1 pick.

Braylon Edwards (No. 3), Shawne Merriman (No. 12), Luis Castillo (No. 28), and Logan Mankins (No. 32) were all drafted after Smith that year. While those non-quarterbacks have become NFL standouts, Smith has not come close to becoming the 49ers' franchise quarterback. Now he's locked in a battle with Shaun Hill for the starting job.

Smith's struggles illustrate why many teams will pass on drafting a quarterback in the first round this year. The Dolphins (No. 1), the Falcons (No. 3), the Chiefs (No. 5), the Ravens (No. 8), the Panthers (No. 13), the Bears (No. 14), and the Vikings (No. 17) all could use an upgrade at quarterback. But this is not a vintage draft for quarterbacks, like 2006, when Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler all went in the first round. Or 2004, when Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were first-round picks.

Matt Ryan of Boston College and Brian Brohm of Louisville may be the only quarterbacks taken in the first round this year. Even Brohm could slide out of the first round, and the thinking would be understandable. Taking a quarterback with a high draft pick is a serious commitment. You pay him a ton of money. You count on him to master the game's most demanding and most important position. Even the good ones usually take at least two seasons to become comfortable as a starter. And if you draft a quarterback with your top pick, and he turns out to be a bust, it sets your franchise back a few seasons. It might also cost you your job.

That is where 49ers head coach Mike Nolan is with Smith. Nolan's future may depend largely on how well Smith plays. This will be Smith's fourth NFL season, and if he does not turn the corner and become a dependable starter, chances are he never will. And if a healthy Smith fails to beat out Hill for the starting job, it will clearly show that the 49ers made a huge mistake drafting Smith No. 1

During a conference call with Bay Area reporters Thursday, Smith reportedly said all the right things. Smith said his rift with Nolan had been mended. He said that his surgically-repaired throwing shoulder was healing properly.

Yet no matter what Smith says, his performance will tell the real story. These are his career numbers: 19 touchdowns passes, 31 interceptions, a 63.9 passer rating.

Those numbers do not remind you of Joe Montana, but Smith should not take all the blame. He has worked with a different offensive coordinator every season with the 49ers, and that lack of continuity has only made his development more challenging.

Mike Martz is the 49ers' new offensive coordinator, and he was brought in largely because of his reputation as a quarterback guru. But at this point, the 49ers have paid a steep price for drafting Smith at No. 1. Unless you are really confident about a quarterback, taking one with a high draft pick is not worth the risk.

Clifton Brown is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at cliftonbrown@sportingnews.com. "

Matt Ryan has no reason to be a top prospect, and we will get scrubbed out for 2 years minimum if we draft him. We should be very positive about a QB we draft, and to pay $30 million guaranteed to a guy who is very shady statistically, and a guy who the best thing said about him is his "intangibles", he should not be a top pick. Off the chart intangibles and acceptable physical stats is absolutely not a reason to draft someone, that is a reason to pass on someone. We need a guy with some game time experience putting up the stats that deem a top 3 pick.

Last time that I watched Ryan play he played in a NFL style college offense and Alex Smith played in the SPREAD offense that is not used in the NFL.  So this arguement has not validity.  Ryan plays in an NFl style offense and in his fours years none of his Wideouts, Tight Ends, or Running Backs have never been drafted, or been even so much put on the practice squad.  He had all his sucess with literaly no one at the skill positions. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...