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Mock draft from scoutsnotebook.com


ge99
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Done by Matt Alkire

http://www.scoutsnotebook.com

3/23

1. Miami Chris Long, DE Virginia

2. St. Louis Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio State

3. Atlanta Matt Ryan, QB Boston College

4. Oakland Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas

5. Kansas City Jake Long, OT Michigan

6. N.Y. Jets Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Tennessee State

7. New England Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy

8. Baltimore Sedrick Ellis, DT USC

9. Cincinnati Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU

10. New Orleans Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida

11. Buffalo Derrick Harvey, DE Florida

12. Denver Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois

13. Carolina Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt

14. Chicago Ryan Clady, OT Boise State

15. Detroit Keith Rivers, MLB USC

16. Arizona Quentin Groves, DE/OLB Auburn

17. Minnesota Phillip Merling, DE Clemson

18. Houston Aqib Talib, CB Kansas

19. Philadelphia Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh

20. Tampa Bay Devin Thomas, WR Michigan State

21. Washington Kentwan Balmer, DT UNC

22. Dallas Malcolm Kelly, WR Oklahoma

23. Pittsburgh Branden Albert, OG Virginia

24. Tennessee DeSean Jackson, WR Cal

25. Seattle Mario Manningham, WR Michigan

26. Jacksonville Calais Campbell, DE Miami

27. San Diego Gosder Cherilus, OT Boston College

28. Dallas Felix Jones, RB Arkansas

29. San Francisco Curtis Lofton, ILB Oklahoma

30. Green Bay Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon

31. New England - Forfeited

32. N.Y. Giants Antoine Cason, CB Arizona

33. Miami Joe Flacco, QB Delaware

34. St. Louis Early Doucet, WR LSU

35. Atlanta Kenny Phillips, SS Miami

36. Kansas City Reggie Smith, CB Oklahoma

37. N.Y. Jets Dan Connor, ILB Penn State

38. Atlanta Trevor Laws, DT Notre Dame

39. Baltimore James Hardy, WR Indiana

40. San Francisco Sam Baker, OL USC

41. New Orleans Dre Moore, DT Maryland

42. Buffalo Limas Sweed, WR Texas

43. Denver DaJuan Morgan, S NC State

44. Carolina Brian Brohm, QB Louisville

45. Chicago Earl Bennett, WR Vanderbilt

46. Detroit Brandon Flowers, CB Virginia Tech

47. Cincinnati Fred Davis, TE USC

48. Minnesota Dustin Keller, TE Purdue

49. Atlanta Patrick Lee, CB Auburn

50. Philadelphia Eddie Royal, WR/RS Virginia Tech

51. Arizona Ray Rice, RB Rutgers

52. Washington Tracy Porter, CB Indiana

53. Tampa Bay Josh Johnson, QB San Diego

54. Pittsburgh Carl Nicks, OT Nebraska

55. Tennessee Jamaal Charles, RB Texas

56. Seattle Jermichael Finley, TE Texas

57. Green Bay John Carlson, TE Notre Dame

58. Miami Martellus Bennett, TE Texas A&M

59. Jacksonville Thomas DeCoud, SS Cal

60. Indianapolis Chris Johnson, RB/RS ECU

61. Green Bay Terrell Thomas, CB USC

62. Dallas Tyvon Branch, CB Connecticut

63. New England Lawrence Jackson, OLB USC

64. N.Y. Giants Xavier Adibi, WLB Virginia Tech

ATL gets:

Matt Ryan

Kenny Phillips

Trevor Laws

Patrick Lee

That gives you guys a franchise QB, a SS, a DT, and a starting CB. Not a bad start at all.

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Matt Ryan is not a consensus elite QB.

I happen to like him a lot. To me, he's head and shoulders better than the other prospects. I think the Falcons would be crazy to pass on him. He reminds me of a lesser version of Carson Palmer.

I understand the case against him, though. I just think people underestimate how little he had to work with at BC. Not one of his skill players is NFL caliber. Not one.

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ge99 (3/28/2008)
Matt Ryan is not a consensus elite QB.

I happen to like him a lot. To me, he's head and shoulders better than the other prospects. I think the Falcons would be crazy to pass on him. He reminds me of a lesser version of Carson Palmer.

I understand the case against him, though. I just think people underestimate how little he had to work with at BC. Not one of his skill players is NFL caliber. Not one.

I guess I can respect that you think Ryan is a good QB, but the best overall prospect?  Are you referring to just the QBs?  Or all of the players in the draft?

IMO Glenn Dorsey, Chris Long, and Jake Long, not to mention a few others are 2x the prospects that Ryan is.

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I think Matt is the best QB.

I think Chris Long is the best prospect.

Seems to me that the Falcons are at their best when they have a franchise QB. You guys won with Chris Miller, Jeff George, and Chris Chandler, but it took a lot of things to go right. Things seemed better with Vick or Steve Bartkowski. Maybe you guys feel differently.

I know as an Eagles fan that most of the 90's were highly inconsistent and maddening. Donovan showed up in 1999 and we've been a much better organization because of it. Certainly there are other factors, but a franchise QB makes a world of difference.

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Kentucky has a pair of NFL caliber WRs.

So does Louisville.

Both teams have TE's that looked really good at the Combine and will be picked.

UK has a good RB (hurt at the Senior Bowl).

BC's skill players are not NFL caliber. I cannot imagine them getting drafted. I've seen good skill players at BC over the years and these kids don't matchup. You never know for sure what will happen in the future, but it would take a near miracle for those kids to develop into playmakers.

Matt had a weak set of skill players compared to the other top QBs.

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ge99 (3/28/2008)
Question for those who don't want Matt Ryan in the 1st...

What do you want the Falcons to do about QB long term?

I ask this sincerely. Ryan isn't the only answer. I'm curious what you want the team to do.

I've watched Brian Brohm play for the last three years.  In my opinion, he's the best QB in this draft.  Unlike a lot of people, I think he is still a 1st-rounder.  I'd like/expect to see the Falcons draft Glenn Dorsey in the first, and do what they can to trade-up to get back into the first, and take Brohm.  If they can't get Brohm, I think the Falcons will stay put, and take either Henne or Flacco in the second.

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ge99 (3/28/2008)
There is definite logic in your thinking. Brohm should make it to the 2nd, or at least the very late 1st. You have the resources to move up for him if need be.

I think the only scare we have is Miami at #32. Miami fans want Brohm if he's there (I've seen there forums and mock drafts) and because he will likely slide, we need to jump them. What is great news for us that San Diego holds the 27th pick in the draft, and then they don't have a pick until the 5th round - they will look to take BPA or trade down and get more picks. Green Bay is also a viable trade option, as are the Giants at the bottom of the 1st round. The Giants need a LB and the Packers need a corner, and can get good ones in the top of the 2nd while picking up a 6th round pick and a late pick next year.

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Brian (3/28/2008)
ge99 (3/28/2008)
There is definite logic in your thinking. Brohm should make it to the 2nd, or at least the very late 1st. You have the resources to move up for him if need be.

I think the only scare we have is Miami at #32. Miami fans want Brohm if he's there (I've seen there forums and mock drafts) and because he will likely slide, we need to jump them. What is great news for us that San Diego holds the 27th pick in the draft, and then they don't have a pick until the 5th round - they will look to take BPA or trade down and get more picks. Green Bay is also a viable trade option, as are the Giants at the bottom of the 1st round. The Giants need a LB and the Packers need a corner, and can get good ones in the top of the 2nd while picking up a 6th round pick and a late pick next year.

I don't think Miami is taking a QB.
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ge99 (3/28/2008)
Question for those who don't want Matt Ryan in the 1st...

What do you want the Falcons to do about QB long term?

I ask this sincerely. Ryan isn't the only answer. I'm curious what you want the team to do.

To be honest, I like Brohm, Henne, Ryan then Flacco in that order. I don't think that any are worth the #3 pick. Brohm is worth the #6 pick though.

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ge99 (3/28/2008)
Question for those who don't want Matt Ryan in the 1st...

What do you want the Falcons to do about QB long term?

I ask this sincerely. Ryan isn't the only answer. I'm curious what you want the team to do.

Brian Brohm at #3 if we're gonna take a QB there.  I can't find a single aspect of Ryan's game that beats Brohm's.  Don't give me that intangibles crap, doesn't erase the fact that Ryan sucks as a football player.

He throws 200-300 more passes than the other elite QB prospects in recent years.  With that many passes, he still threw less TDs than a lot of them, not to mention more than twice as many INTs as any prospect besides Vince Young (Young threw 10, Ryan 19 - so still, pretty much double).

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RE: Miami & QB

I agree about the Dolphins taking a QB. I can't see how they wouldn't with pick 1 or 32. John Beck didn't look like a franchise guy to me.

RE: Matt Ryan

You may not like him, but he doesn't suck. That's silly.

Did you watch BC win at Va Tech? He carried that team on his back late in the game. That was a great performance. Yes, he threw too many picks. That is a problem. Again, look at his skill players. Those guys were tightly covered most of the year. Matt was forced to throw into coverage. He did so effectively for much of the year.

You can make an argument for Brohm, but don't rip Ryan. I've been studying QB prospects for a long time. He is a legit 1st Rd, franchise QB.

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goosedaddy70 (3/28/2008)
The Laws pick is the ONLY one I like. The others are very bad. I would be very disappointed it thats how it actually went down.

Is there one real reason you can give that Matt Ryan is good? You say his team sucks to make up for his faults, but Jay Cutler had a much worse team against much better competition (SEC), but still had WAY better stats than Ryan. Not to mention his physical attributes are off the charts while Ryan's are average at best. So no, a weak team is not an excuse, and yet somehow Ryan is being hyped up much more than Cutler was.

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Scott24Falcs (3/28/2008)
ge99 (3/28/2008)
Question for those who don't want Matt Ryan in the 1st...

What do you want the Falcons to do about QB long term?

I ask this sincerely. Ryan isn't the only answer. I'm curious what you want the team to do.

I've watched Brian Brohm play for the last three years.  In my opinion, he's the best QB in this draft.  Unlike a lot of people, I think he is still a 1st-rounder.  I'd like/expect to see the Falcons draft Glenn Dorsey in the first, and do what they can to trade-up to get back into the first, and take Brohm.  If they can't get Brohm, I think the Falcons will stay put, and take either Henne or Flacco in the second.

Agreed.  Don't think the Falcons will take Ryan and the knock on Flacco is that he hasn't played against the same competition.  Brohm first choice and Henne as their number two.

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Why is Matt Ryan a 1st Rd'er?

He has good size and a good arm. He is accurate. Matt makes good decisions. He can throw on the move. He can put the ball in tight spaces. He's a leader. He was on a team that lacked top talent, but had them in the top ten for much of the year. Matt led BC in comeback wins at Clemson and Va Tech. He ran a pro-style offense. He is polished in terms of taking snaps, dropping back, and throwing conventional routes. He didn't play in a spread offense, which can give you a false-positive. Those QBs put up great stats, but the style of play made the stats, not the QB's talent.

The INTs are a concern, but set the numbers aside and look at them. For example, 2 of the picks came in the ACC title game when he had balls batted by blitzers and picked by LBs. Those weren't dumb throws. I have 12 of BC's 14 games on tape. I watched 10 of those games during the year and studied several of the tapes. I have BC coaches tape from 2006. This is a player that I know well.

There are two games that bothered me. The first was at VT. Matt played poorly for 56 minutes of the game. He came alive the last 4 minutes and led BC to a win. Part of the reason he played poorly was that his OL really struggled. Chris Ellis gave them fits. The FSU game was one where Matt flat out struggled. He did not play well.

We're looking for pro ability, not college stats. Matt has just about everything you'd want in an NFL QB. I do wish he had played in the Senior Bowl. I'd like to have seen what he could do when throwing to top flight receivers.

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That's a respectable post ge99.  But, put yourself in the Falcons' shoes for a minute.  At #3, with guys like Glenn Dorsey and Jake Long available, is Matt Ryan a better pick?  I don't think so.  I believe Dorsey and Long are much better prospects.  And in the end, I think we go in a different direction than Ryan.

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Sure, I can see you guys passing on the QB. There are other players to be had at 3 and other QBs in the draft.

How much do you think Arthur Blank's business background will come into play? There are no real marketable Falcons right now (in the ESPN sense). People should appreciate a guy like Michael Boley, but we all know flashy skill players are the main stars.

Will Blank want a star QB not only to lead the team, but also to market?

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