Jump to content

Compensatory picks scheduled to be released next Monday, March 31


rmarchma
 Share

Recommended Posts

Compensatory Picks& The NFL is scheduled to release a list of compensatory draft picks on Monday, March 31st. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

 

 

 

It appears that Atlanta will probably get either a 3rd round compensation pick, if Marcus Wilkins does NOT count as a qualified free agent signing, or a 7th round pick if Marcus Wilkins does count as a qualified free agent.

 

From the compensatory draft guru AdamJT s  projections on March 4 pertaining to the Falcons as follows:

 

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents. That type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been 12 of these net value type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents signed. In all 12 cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value.

 

This year, I m projecting that Atlanta will receive a net-value comp after losing three qualifying players (Patrick Kerney, Ashley Lelie and Justin Griffith) and signing three qualifying players (Ovie Mughelli, Lewis Sanders and Marcus Wilkins). The combined values of the players Atlanta lost was more than twice as much as the combined values of the players it signed& If Marcus Wilkins does not qualify, Atlanta would receive a third-round comp pick for Patrick Kerney instead of a net-value comp pick in the seventh round. The third-round comp pick for Kerney would be between <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Cincinnati s pick for Steinbach and Baltimore s pick for Thomas.

 

 

In two topic threads that I started on Feb.27 and Feb 28, I predicted the same 7th round compensatory pick for the Falcons as the compensatory draft guru when counting Wilkins as a "qualified" free agent signing as follows:

 

Atlanta s Qualified Unrestricted Free Agents LOST:

(1) Patrick Kerney (6 year, $39m = $6.5m per year)

(2) Justin Griffith (3 year, $3.8m = $1.3m per year)

(3) Ashley Lelie (2 year, $4.3m = $2.2m per year)

Note: the Falcons also lost Jason Webster and Matt Lehr in 2007, but they do not count into the compensatory formula because they were all Released , which meant that they had unexpired contracts still in force at the time they were released.

Atlanta s Qualified Unrestricted Free Agents SIGNED:

(1) Ovie Mughelli (6 year, $18m = $3m per year)

(2) Lewis Sanders (2 year, $2.3m including $700,000 signing bonus = $1.2m per year)

(3) Marcus Wilkins (3 year, $3m = $1m per year)

Note: the Falcons also signed Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, Bryan Leftwich, and Joe Horn in 2007, but they do not count into the compensatory formula because they were all Released .

I predict that Atlanta did not suffer a net loss in the number of qualified free agents, ie 3 projected qualified free agents signed and 3 projected qualified free agents lost equals a net loss of 0. Therefore Atlanta should only be entitled to only a seventh round compensatory pick if the value of the players lost significantly exceeded the value of the players signed. I think this is the case due to combined value of the players lost significantly exceeding the combined value of the players signed, primarily due to Patrick Kerney s contract.

 

My two topic threads on Feb.27 and 28 linked as follows:

 

 

 

Whether Marcus Wilkins counts as a qualified free agent signing will probably depend upon whether his annual compensation was above a minimum threshold or not. The following is another excerpt from the compensatory draft expert s projections on March 4 as follows:

 

Last year, the lowest-paid players who are known to have qualified for the NFL s comp equation signed for $750,000 per season and saw significant playing time. The highest-paid player who is known to have not qualified was Kevin McCadam, who signed for $765,000 but played only on special teams. Several players who signed for $750,000 but did not see significant playing time also did not qualify. This year, I have three players whom I consider on the bubble for qualifying Chris Liewinski, Mike Doss and Marcus Wilkins. For various reasons, I m projecting that all three players will qualify. Wilkins signed for less than Doss (Wilkins signed for $816,667 per year) and played even less than Doss, but his three-year contract included escalator clauses that could raise his base salaries in the final two years of the deal. Last year, a player with a similar contract and playing time (Jamie Winborn) qualified for the equation despite having a lower value in the formula than a player who did not qualify. I m guessing it was because of his escalator clause, which is why I m projecting that Wilkins will qualify, too. But I could be wrong on both counts.

 

I tried to verify the $816,667 amount used above by the draft guru for Marcus Wilkins annual compensation amount . My original research revealed that Wilkins received a 3 year contract for $3 million, or $1million per year. Further research over the weekend revealed the following about Marcus Wilkins 2007 compensation from a link to USA Today s salary recap by NFL team provided by magnus23:

 

Year / Team

2007 / Atlanta Falcons

<?xml:namespace prefix = v ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" />

Player

Base Salary

Sign Bonus

Other Bonus

Total Salary

Cap Value

Position

 

Wilkins, Marcus

$ 595,000

$ 500,000

 $ 4,200

$ 1,099,200

$ 765,866

LB

 

 

Notice that Wilkins total salary for 2007 is just over $1 million, which includes his entire signing bonus. However his cap hit for 2007 was only $765,866 (calculated by dividing the $500,000 signing bonus by 3 years + Base Salary + Other Bonus). I m not real sure what annual compensation amount is actually used to determine the minimum threshold compensation to determine if a player qualifies as a free agent signing. If a player s cap value is used, which spreads the signing bonus over the years of the contract, then Marcus Wilkens is right on the minimum threshold compensation level of last year. (Also this minimum threshold level increases some each year).

 

Therefore, it appears that Wilkins may be much closer to NOT counting as a qualified free agent signing than I initially thought. I m a little more hopeful that the Falcons just might wind up with a 3rd round compensatory pick than I once was. This is huge difference as a 3rd round pick should be able to help the team, whereas a 7th round pick might not even make the team. Like all Falcon fans, I am really hoping and praying for a 3rd round compensatory pick. However, we will all have to anxiously wait until next Monday to know for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

iDash (3/24/2008)
Thanks, did wilkins, even see the field?

I think TT, or Stone beat him out right?

Marcus Wilkins was signed by Atlanta during the 2007 free agency period. He played in all the Falcons games during the 2007 regular season on special teams. He was recently released in 2008, but this does not affect his status as a free agent signing in 2007, which is the basis for the 2008 compensatory picks. If he had been signed in 2007 but released during the 2007 regular season, then he probably would not count as a qualified free agent signing for 2007.

It's rather sad that such a marginal player as Wilkins might count as a "qualified" free agent in the compensation formula that determines whether a team has a Net Loss in the number of qualified free agents signed and lost. It is the number of NET qualified free agents lost (qualified free agents lost - qualified free agents signed) that determines the number of compensatory picks that a team receives. Thus in determining the NUMBER of compensatory picks, each "qualified" free agent counts the same. Therefore, Wilkins counts the same as Kerney in determining the Net Loss number.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

magnus23 (3/24/2008)
I poised this question back to you in another thread providing you the USA Today link...

I also provided the Fox Sports link showing Wilkins at 627K

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/teamSalary?categoryId=67038

Based on playing time (only special teams) and his compensation level ... one would think we would walk away with a third.

That you did, and thanks for providing the Foxsports salary link also. Note: I edited the initial topic thread post to include your board name as the one providing the USA Today salary link. Credit should be given where credit is due, and I apologize for my initial oversight in not doing so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jonahfalcon (3/24/2008)
A bottom 3rd ... basically a top fourth is important.

There will be some of the better TEs, ILBs, and SSs still available there.

Yea, if we got a third, it would be the QB pick hopefully,

Only thing that scare me is ST McAdams counted for us last year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

McKay's football acumen <<<<<< Mike Vick's character and common sense.

Seriously, F McKay, I'm thrilled you were publically humiliated, and neutered of your football decision making power...my only dissapointment is that it wasn't even worse. McKay is a franchise killer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jonahfalcon (3/24/2008)
A bottom 3rd ... basically a top fourth is important.

There will be some of the better TEs, ILBs, and SSs still available there.

Don't forget about OGs either. They usually drop on draft day. Sometimes a team might be able to get a good starting-caliber OG in the 4th round. I also agree with you that a team can usually get starting-caliber, TEs, LBs, and Ss in the 4th round too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

atljbo (3/24/2008)
yea....ive been saying that we will get a 3rd round comp from day one .... but we will see

I lot of people have said that, and they could be right but for the wrong reason. Many people assumed that because the Falcons lost a pro-bowl FA player in Kerney, that Atlanta would automatically be entitled to a third round comp pick. That is not how the compensatory system works; you can not look at one player in isolation.  You have to look at the totality of the number of qualified free agents lost versus the number of qualified free agents signed to determine the number of compensatory picks.

Atlanta will not receive a third round comp pick for Kerney unless the Falcons are in a Net Loss situation, ie the number of qualified free agents lost > the number of qualified free agents signed. Therefore if Marcus Wilkens does NOT count as a qualified free agent signing, then Atlanta should have a Net Loss of 1 and should get a third round compensatory pick due to the value of the compensatory FAs lost significantly exceeding the value of the FAs signed.

If the Falcons have a Net Gain, ie the number of qualified free agents signed > the number of qualified free agents lost, then Atlanta would get NO compensatory draft pick at all, even though they lost pro-bowler Kerney. If the Falcons have a Net Loss = 0, ie the number of qualified free agents lost = the number of qualified free agents signed, then the most that a team can receive is a 7th round comp pick. This should be the Falcons case if Wilkins does count as a qualified free agent signing.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So what this tells me is that us getting a third rounder as compensation is dependant on the status of one poor player like Marcus Wilkins? 

This really ticks me off due to the fact that this guy got 600,000 plus dollars for nothing.  HE only has 6 tackles for his career and 4 were assisted.  I'm soooooo glad Mckay's gone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

rmarchma (3/24/2008)
atljbo (3/24/2008)
yea....ive been saying that we will get a 3rd round comp from day one .... but we will see

I lot of people have said that, and they could be right but for the wrong reason. Many people assumed that because the Falcons lost a pro-bowl FA player in Kerney, that Atlanta would automatically be entitled to a third round comp pick.That is not how the compensatory system works; you can not look at one player in isolation. You have to look at the totality of the number of qualified free agents lost versus the number of qualified free agents signed to determine the number of compensatory picks.

Atlanta will not receive a third round comp pick for Kerney unless the Falcons are in a Net Loss situation, ie the number of qualified free agents lost> the number of qualified free agents signed. Therefore if Marcus Wilkens does NOT count as a qualified free agent signing, then Atlanta should have a Net Loss of 1 and should get a third round compensatory pick due tothe value of the compensatory FAs lost significantly exceeding the value of the FAs signed.

Ifthe Falcons have a Net Gain, ie the number of qualified free agents signed > the number of qualified free agents lost, then Atlanta would get NO compensatory draft pick at all, even though they lost pro-bowler Kerney. If the Falcons have a Net Loss = 0, ie the number of qualified free agents lost = the number of qualified free agents signed, then the most that a team can receive is a 7th round comp pick. This should be the Falcons case if Wilkins does count as a qualified free agent signing.

(Ive said all along that i thought Wilkinsa would not count)

if you look at my past post,,,,,,i post the reason why i thought we would get a 3rd and you fought it......i may be right or you ,ay be right......but i think we will get a 3rd round pick

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hopefully, the league/Roger Goodell has a little bit of "discretion" here........Falcons really deserve the 3rd round compensatory pick.....

maybe "the rules are the rules" but this sounds convoluted enough that hopefully discretion comes into play....

knowing the ol' falcon theory, we will probably get screwed though - and yes, a 7th rounder is a screw job.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

g-dawg (3/24/2008)
hopefully, the league/Roger Goodell has a little bit of "discretion" here........Falcons really deserve the 3rd round compensatory pick.....

maybe "the rules are the rules" but this sounds convoluted enough that hopefully discretion comes into play....

knowing the ol' falcon theory, we will probably get screwed though - and yes, a 7th rounder is a screw job.

The compensatory draft picks are determined by the NFL Management Council. I'm not sure who all are members of this council. Yes it does appear that they have some secretive provisions and discretion in the process. However I do not think that they would violate one of thier standing guidelines though.

One of their guidelines since inception of the compensatory draft system is not to award any compensatory pick, if a team has a Net Gain in the number of compensatory free agents. Another guideline is to only award at most a 7th round pick, if a team has a Net Loss in compensatory free agents = 0. Now the NFL Management Council still could possibly exclude Marcus Wilkins from counting as a "qualifying" free agent under a secretative provision, thus giving the Falcons a Net Loss = 1 and a probable third round pick, even if Wilkins made a little more than the minimum threshold amount.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To further elaborate on the general guidelines that I recently mentioned. I recapped what appeared to me to be the the general guidelines of the compensatory draft system as follows:

(1) No compensatory picks for a team if there is no Net Loss, ie the number of qualified free agents signed is greater than the number of qualified free agents lost, with one exception noted in (2). The number of the Net Loss determines the exact number of compensatory picks but limited to a maximum of 4.

(2) The one exception occurs when a team has exactly the same number of qualified free agents signed as lost, ie Net Loss is 0, but the value of the qualified free agents lost is significantly greater than the value of the qualified free agents signed. In this case the team does receive 1 compensatory selection, but in the 7th round.

(3) The exact placement of the compensatory picks as to round and position within the round is determined by value considerations, ie contract amounts, playing time, performance, post-season honors, etc., when comparing the qualified free agents signed versus the qualified free agents lost. However I believe this provision does not impact the number of compensatory picks for clubs with a Net Loss, but only the selection round and position of the awarded picks.

(4) Not all free agents signed or lost count as qualified free agents, and thus do not figure into the compensatory formulas. Free agents who are Released by their former clubs before the expiration of their existing contracts, and free agents who are signed for less than a threshold annual salary by their new team do not count as qualified . There could possibly be some other factors that might go into determining whether a particular player is a qualified free agent or not.

I backtested these guidelines against the 2007 actual compensatory draft picks awarded. They all held true against the 2007 selections. Following are the compensatory free agents lost and signed by clubs in 2007 NFL draft. Also included is the number of net qualified losses of each team with their resulting compensatory picks by round:

ATLANTA -- Lost: Barry Stokes, Kevin Shaffer.

Net Loss = 2 Picks = 2 (4th and 7th rounds)

BALTIMORE -- Lost: Will Demps, Ma'ake Kemoeatu, Chester Taylor, Anthony Weaver, Anthony Wright, Dave Zastudil. Signed: Justin Bannan.

Net Loss = 5 but limited to 4 Picks (2 in 4th, 5th, and 6th)

CINCINNATI -- Lost: Jon Kitna, Matt Schobel. Signed: Anthony Wright, Dexter Jackson

Net Loss = 0 but got a 7th round exception pick because value lost significantly exceeded value signed)

GREEN BAY -- Lost: Mike Flanagan, Paris Lenon, Ryan Longwell, Craig Nall. Signed: Marquand Manuel, Ryan Pickett, Charles Woodson.

Net Loss= 1 Pick= 1 (7th)

INDIANAPOLIS -- Lost: Edgerrin James, David Thornton, Larry Tripplett, Mike Vanderjagt. Signed: Adam Vinatieri.

Net loss =3 Picks=3 (3rd, 4th, and 5th)

JACKSONVILLE -- Lost: Akin Ayodele, Ephraim Salaam, Jamie Winborn, Kenny Wright. Signed: Nick Greisen, Brian Williams.

Net Loss = 2 Picks= 2 (2 in 7th)

NEW ENGLAND -- Lost: Tom Ashworth, Matt Chatham, Andre Davis, Tim Dwight, Christian Fauria, David Givens, Adam Vinatieri. Signed: Reche Caldwell.

Net Loss = 6 but limited to 4 picks (5th, 2 in 6th, and 7th)

NEW YORK GIANTS -- Lost: Will Allen, Kendrick Clancy, Nick Greisen, Shaun Williams. Signed: Jason Bell, Will Demps, R.W. McQuarters.

Net Loss= 1 Picks =1 (7th)

OAKLAND -- Lost: Renaldo Hill, Charles Woodson. Signed: Lance Johnstone.

Net Loss= 1 Picks = 1 (7th)

PITTSBURGH -- Lost: Chris Hope, Antwaan Randle El, Kimo von Oelhoffen. Signed: Ryan Clark.

Net Loss = 2 Picks = 2 (4th and 5th)

ST. LOUIS -- Lost: Adam Archuleta, Tyoka Jackson, Damione Lewis, Jamie Martin, Ryan Pickett, Rex Tucker. Signed: Fakhir Brown, Corey Chavous, Todd Steussie, Will Witherspoon.

Net Loss = 2 Picks= 2 (2 in 7th round)

SAN DIEGO -- Lost: Drew Brees, Reche Caldwell, Ben Leber, Justin Peelle. Signed: Marlon McCree, Aaron Shea.

Net Loss = 2 Picks= 2 (3rd and 5th)

SAN FRANCISCO -- Lost: Andre Carter, Anthony Clement, Julian Peterson. Signed: Antonio Bryant.

Net Loss = 2 Picks= 2 (3rd and 4th)

SEATTLE -- Lost: Ryan Hannam, Steve Hutchinson, Joe Jurevicius,

Marquand Manuel. Signed: Tom Ashworth, Russell Davis, Julian Peterson

Net Loss= 1 Picks= 1 (6th)

TAMPA BAY -- Lost: Jameel Cook, Dexter Jackson, Todd Steussie. Signed: Jamie Winborn.

Net Loss = 2 Picks = 2 (2 in 7th)

------=

Above information in this post was gleaned and pieced together from the following two sources:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?sectio...&id=2814087

http://www.atlantafalcons.com/News/Article..._NFL_Draft.aspx

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...