Interesting Blog about Matt Ryan and why he is not a top pick...

[Sun Tzu 7]

It's an interesting read.....

The charts look better when viewed on the original blog.

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Many draft and NFL experts have Matt Ryan as the #1 QB draft prospect in the draft. Some have him tagged as one of the top 5 players in the upcoming draft. The reason for his climb had to do with his so called leadership ability, and nothing to do with his above average arm strength and accuracy. As Bucky Brooks reported on SI.com, "His accuracy, touch and arm strength are all rated above average; but it is his leadership that scouts find most impressive."

I'm going to first attack his leadership. In the first Virginia Tech game, the Boston College Eagles went the first 57 minutes and 49 seconds without a score. Much credit is given to Matt Ryanfor the win, too much credit if you ask me. Watch the tape and you will see that Virginia Tech played the end of that game "not to lose". They dropped into "The Prevent" and rushed only three for the last two drives of the game. All Matt Ryan had to do was play "pitch-and-catch"; while he took his time waiting for his receivers to get open. On the final score of the game, with 0:11 on the clock, Ryan seemed to have an eternity in the pocket. He casually would move away from the any pressure and after what seemed like forever he threw a 24 yard touchdown pass to Andre Callender. To me, that didn't prove leadership. It just proved that the Hokies blew the game by not sticking to their original defensive formula in the closing moments of the game.

Now let's look at the following week. Against F.S.U., with a 1:10 left down 20-17, Matt Ryan threw an Interception that went the other way for six. This put the game out of reach, at that point, with a 27-17 score. Against Maryland, the Eagles were down 42-21 in the 4th quarter. Ryan threw 2 of his 3 touchdown passes with 7:31 and 0:52 remaining. During the time, Maryland was playing not to lose and took their foot off the pedal. The Eagles lost 42-35. In their final loss, a rematch against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Matt Ryan had a touchdown run, but no passing touchdowns. They went completely scoreless in the second half of the game. Let me break down the 2nd half for you of that game:

5 plays than punt

6 plays, turnover on downs Incomplete pass on 4th-and-1

4 plays and punt

4 plays and punt

12 plays ending with an INT on 4th-and-4 on VTech 13 (2:15 remaining in 4th quarter)

3 plays ending with an INT being returned for 40 yards and a touchdown on a 3rd-and-10 situation on BC's 35. (0:23 remianing in 4th quarter)

Now that's hardly worthy of a gold star for leadership if you ask me.

Below I have a chart of Matt Ryan's performances over the season. I'll take this time to explain the abbreviations:

S.I.P.R. - Final Sports Illustrated Power Rankings

O.P.D.E. - Opponents Pass Defense Efficiency (the lower the score the better)

D.C.% - The average completion percentage given up by that defense over the season

O.Y.P.A. - Opponent's average Yards Per Attempt over the season.

*-denotes a Division I-AA school (UMass)

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S.I.P.R

Opp. Opp. Rec. O.P.D.E. Comp. Att. Comp% D.C.% %Diff

32 Wake F. (9-4) 108.5 32 52 61.5% 53.4% 8.1%

57 N.C. St. (5-7) 113.6 15 34 44.1% 54.6% -10.5%

44 Gtech (7-6) 124.5 30 44 68.2% 56.3% 11.9%

106 Army (3-9) 137.9 35 51 68.6% 65.0% 3.6%

N/A* UMass (10-3) 108.0* 24 42 57.1% 55%* 2.1%

63 Bowl. G. (8-5) 135.2 24 32 75.0% 60.2% 14.8%

94 Notre D. (3-9) 111.8 32 49 65.3% 52.6% 12.7%

6 VTech (11-3) 97.1 25 52 48.1% 52.1% -4%

33 F.S.U. (7-6) 124.4 26 53 49.1% 56.9% -7.8%

50 Mary. (6-7) 120.3 33 56 58.9% 60.0% -1.1%

16 Clem. (9-4) 108.3 31 47 66.0% 58.1% 7.9%

65 Miami (5-7) 125.6 26 43 60.5% 56.8% 3.7%

6 VTech (11-3) 97.1 33 52 63.5% 52.1% 11.4%

62 Mich. St. (7-6) 126.4 22 47 46.8% 58.2% -11.4%

Tot/Avg N/A (101-79) 117.7 388 654 59.3% 56.5% 2.8%

Fig 1-1

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Opp. O.P.D.E. Y.P.A. O.Y.P.A. Diff TD INT FUM Result

Wake F. 108.5 7.85 5.9 1.95 5 2 0 W/38-28

N.C. St. 113.6 4.18 6.24 -2.06 1 1 0 W/37-17

Gtech 124.5 9.87 7.22 2.65 1 0 2 W/24-10

Army 137.9 6.98 7.65 -0.67 3 2 0 W/37-17

UMass 108.0* 4.86 5.76* -0.9 1 0 0 W/24-14

Bowl. G. 135.2 9.75 7.46 2.29 4 0 0 W/55-24

Notre D. 111.8 5.49 5.64 -0.15 2 1 0 W/27-14

VTech 97.1 5.48 5.58 -0.1 2 2 1 W/14-10

F.S.U. 124.4 7.83 6.88 0.95 2 3 0 L/27-17

Mary. 120.3 7.52 6.6 0.92 3 2 0 L/42-35

Clem. 108.3 6.7 5.76 0.94 1 1 0 W/20-17

Miami 125.6 8.58 7.34 1.24 3 2 1 W/28-14

VTech 97.1 5.87 5.58 0.24 0 2 0 L/30-16

Mich. St. 126.4 5.3 6.75 -1.45 3 1 2 W/24-21

Tot/Avg. 117.7 6.89 6.51 -0.38 31 19 6 N/A

Fig. 1-2

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What this chart shows us is that Matt Ryan is really inconsistent, a quality that usually doesn't inspire a teammate's confidence at the next level. He had four games at which he didn't meet par on completion percentage. He had another 5 games where he didn't make par for yards per attempt. He also had 9 out of 14 games where his TD:INT was greater than 1:1; that leaves 5 out of 14 games where he was equal or less than a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If we look at games that he had exceeded par in completion percentage and yards per attempt, while maintaining a greater than 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he had only had done that 4 out of 14 games. Those games were against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Bowling Green, and Miami. Only one of those teams ranked in the top 50 for Pass Defense Efficiency, and that was Wake Forest which was 15th in the nation in that stat. None of those teams were ranked higher than 32 in the power rankings either. What does that say about Matt Ryan's NFL prospects?

He didn't face many good pass defenses, and he averaged 46.7 pass attempts per game; which is a large reason for why his yardage, and possibly touchdown, stats are so inflated. I've watched his game tape, and his play has matched up with I've been stating through use of these stats. He is remarkably unspectacular. Nothing I've seen has showed his dominance of the game or his will to lead his team to victory. Last year, he wasn't even on anyone's potential mock 1st round draft before this coming season. What raised him up to first round status? The only thing spectacular was his 4,507 passing yards this season. His pass efficiency isn't even in the top 50 for the past season. Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) led the nation with a 176.5 rating, and ranked at 50 is Patrick Pinkney from East Carolina with a 131.7 rating. Matt Ryan is sitting at a mediocre 127.0 rating. Let's not forget that Matt Ryan didn't participate in the Senior Bowl and isn't planning on throwing any passes at the combine; waiting rather to throw at his pro day in the future. If I was a GM, I wouldn't like that a guy like this isn't taking every opportunity to show us that his physical tools are better than advertised. This guy has too many question marks, lacks the physical tools, and has played too inconsistently over his career to warrant a top 5 or 1st round draft projection.

Let's not kid ourselves; this is a very weak quarterback class that will be lucky to produce a couple quality starters in the league, let alone a franchise quarterback. Matt Ryan exhibits good size, above average arm strength and accuracy, an over-rated report of his leadership abilities, inconsistent play, and an average ability for a quarterback to not fumble the football (6 fumbles over 68 rushing attempts and 21 sacks). If any team uses a 1st round pick on this guy, they will be making an expensive gamble; which I believe, will be an expensive bust that will ultimately destroy a rebuilding franchise and cost a GM and coach their jobs.

[red2play]

Dead on the money. Couldn't have said it better myself. Time for some team to bite the bullet and pick this sorry loser.

No wonder he didn't go to the senior bowl or the combine.

[vafalconfan]

Even before reading this I will be shocked if we draft Ryan. I have to believe that TD knows qbs as well as anyone and as bad as we need a franchise signal caller I think they are looking at round 2. Nobody talks about Brohm anymore, but I still think he is the best pro prospect of the bunch..

[direwolf]

If nothing else, it reinforces all the questions surrounding Ryan. I've never understood why so many are so high on him; he just doesn't seem all that special to me.

We can do so much better in the first round then spending a top 3 pick on a player who hasn't dominated in pretty much any way in his college career. Frankly, I'd rather go the whole draft without picking a QB at all than taking Ryan at 3.

Direwolf

[FalconFan13]

grendel (2/28/2008)

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Dead on accurate. This is exactly what I've been saying. Expect the Ryan supporters to come on and try to discredit using stats to measure a QB, but not actually offer up any alternative other than "Mike Mayock / Mel Kiper think he's the best".

That would be the worse thing they could do to help Ryan. He has the worst stats of any of the top 10 or so QB's coming out of college this year. Not 1 of them besides him has under a 2 to 1 TD to INT Ratio that i know of. Also i don't think he is in the top 5 in completion percentage. So if they want to help him they better not use stats.

[theDIRTYcode]

Fans have had this pegged for awhile now, so it's about time someone in the media catches up. Brian Brohm is still the best QB prospect in this draft and it will be armed robbery if he's sitting there for us in the second round.

[Adrian Gibson]

Good read.....Ive still yet to see why everyone is so high on this guy....

[Bring It]

Geeze, I know you spent alot of time on this very thorough post but I'll have to take a day of vacation to find time to read all of it.

[J. Falcon]

I don't know if anyone has read this month's S.I., but there is an article about Ryan in it that suprised me. Bill Polian(the Colt's GM) was heaping praises on Ryan. I know that the Colts aren't in the market for a QB, but I don't think Polian would praise Ryan if he didn't feel that way. Also, one scout said that not one skill player on BC's roster(aside from Ryan) will ever make it in the NFL. I'm not saying that we should draft him, but a lot of pro scouts really do think that Ryan is worth a top 5 pick.

[ATL4ever]

I think he'll slide down to the Chiefs and possibly the Bears. I agree he's always been inconsistent. 19 INTs this year again mediocre talent. The first VT game they were only rushing three guys at the end. The second one, they smothered him. We need OL and DL. Forget about him. There's enough QB talent to wait for the later rounds.

[Sun Tzu 7]

J. Falcon (2/28/2008)

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I don't know if anyone has read this month's S.I., but there is an article about Ryan in it that suprised me. Bill Polian(the Colt's GM) was heaping praises on Ryan. I know that the Colts aren't in the market for a QB, but I don't think Polian would praise Ryan if he didn't feel that way. Also, one scout said that not one skill player on BC's roster(aside from Ryan) will ever make it in the NFL. I'm not saying that we should draft him, but a lot of pro scouts really do think that Ryan is worth a top 5 pick.

But what about the Falcons?

Let's think about this for a second.

If we draft him with the #3 pick he's going to be viewed as the "savior" of the franchise so there will be immense pressure to play him.

And when he does play he will have the same level of talent that he worked with in Boston College in the NFL.

1. We won't be able to protect him in the passing game

2. We won't be able to use the running game to help him because we won't have one.

3. Our best WR is possibly a #2 WR on other teams and we no longer have a Pro Bowl TE to help.

4. The defense will not be able to bail him out because we won't be abe to cover, (bye DeAngelo), or pressure anybody.

And then when you get past all of that there will be the inevitable "on the field" comparisons to the man he is trying to replace... Vick.

Say what you want to about Vick's passing... but remember he was still talented enough to take a relatively bad team to the playoffs in his second year.

Vick could carry a team on his back. Can Ryan?

And there will be the reverse Vick hate. Do you remember how people would just hate Vick and people would love him.... no matter what? Well reverse that with Ryan.

People that hated Vick will probably love Ryan. Conversley the people that loved Vick will probably hate Ryan.... because he's not Vick and I am pretty sure he will be refered to as the "great white hope" at one point.

People are going to hate Ryan... just because.

[J. Falcon]

grendel (2/28/2008)

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J. Falcon (2/28/2008)

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I don't know if anyone has read this month's S.I., but there is an article about Ryan in it that suprised me. Bill Polian(the Colt's GM) was heaping praises on Ryan. I know that the Colts aren't in the market for a QB, but I don't think Polian would praise Ryan if he didn't feel that way. Also, one scout said that not one skill player on BC's roster(aside from Ryan) will ever make it in the NFL. I'm not saying that we should draft him, but a lot of pro scouts really do think that Ryan is worth a top 5 pick.

My problem with that is that there's not going to be anyone from Army's secondary going to the NFL either, and Ryan threw 2 INTs against Army.

I also disagree that none of them will go to the NFL. BC's top receiver this year was a Sophomore, and if he keeps developing he could be a mid-round pick. I'm a bit surprised that Andre Callender isn't projected to be drafted. He caught 76 passes out of the backfield this year, and could be a good 3rd down back.

That was just one scouts opinion. I'm sure it could change.

[J. Falcon]

Sun Tzu 7 (2/28/2008)

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J. Falcon (2/28/2008)

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I don't know if anyone has read this month's S.I., but there is an article about Ryan in it that suprised me. Bill Polian(the Colt's GM) was heaping praises on Ryan. I know that the Colts aren't in the market for a QB, but I don't think Polian would praise Ryan if he didn't feel that way. Also, one scout said that not one skill player on BC's roster(aside from Ryan) will ever make it in the NFL. I'm not saying that we should draft him, but a lot of pro scouts really do think that Ryan is worth a top 5 pick.

But what about the Falcons?

Let's think about this for a second.

If we draft him with the #3 pick he's going to be viewed as the "savior" of the franchise so there will be immense pressure to play him.

And when he does play he will have the same level of talent that he worked with in Boston College in the NFL.

1. We won't be able to protect him in the passing game

2. We won't be able to use the running game to help him because we won't have one.

3. Our best WR is possibly a #2 WR on other teams and we no longer have a Pro Bowl TE to help.

4. The defense will not be able to bail him out because we won't be abe to cover, (bye DeAngelo), or pressure anybody.

And then when you get past all of that there will be the inevitable "on the field" comparisons to the man he is trying to replace... Vick.

Say what you want to about Vick's passing... but remember he was still talented enough to take a relatively bad team to the playoffs in his second year.

Vick could carry a team on his back. Can Ryan?

And there will be the reverse Vick hate. Do you remember how people would just hate Vick and people would love him.... no matter what? Well reverse that with Ryan.

People that hated Vick will probably love Ryan. Conversley the people that loved Vick will probably hate Ryan.... because he's not Vick and I am pretty sure he will be refered to as the "great white hope" at one point.

People are going to hate Ryan... just because.

I agree. Ryan wouldn't be my pick, but some people on here hate him way too much.