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Analysis of Drafted QB's (1997 - 2007)


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Bottom Line:

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958B1AD7-88FE-4927-B3F3-C7C06CD8DC50.png

This supports the idea that we would be better off taking a shot on someone in the first round vs. a late pick-up, but says nothing on whether an individual player (e.g., Matt "Interception" Ryan) would be a good choice. I'm sure you could change my inherently subjective "success" criteria, but here's the data I used:

2B7ED003-7A7F-40AF-AC12-7CD3BD9E50C8.png

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This is a prime example of how statistics can be manipulated to draw false conclusions. Round 2 QB's had 3 busts in 11 picks. That's a 27% bust rate. Round 3 QB's had 4 out of 15, or 26.7%. Round 4 had 6 out of 13, or 46%. In other words, the success rate in rounds 2 and 3 are relatively even with round 1 QB success. Round 4 shows an enormous dropoff in success. In other words, we'd be MUCH better off taking a QB in the 2nd or 3rd without the cap investment of the #3 pick.

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red2play (2/27/2008)
The entire notion that you MUST use a first rd pick to get "the" Qb is stupid. The whole analysis is flawed.

Even more, is that we picked up Matt Schaub in the 3rd round just a few years ago. I guess he's no good because he was a 3rd rounder right?

The whole argument is baseless.

it's actually not baseless. you can go back to 1989 and if you are looking for a franchise qb you are much, much better off looking in the first round as opposed to 2-7 (or 12 depending on which year).

since 1989 159 qbs have been seleceted in rounds other then the first. of those 159 qbs, only 14 have distinguished themselves as franchise guys. that's 8%.

history shows that you don't go looking for a franchise guy in later rounds. sometimes you get lucky, but more often then not you wont.

by not addressing the qb position with a true franchise guy you are setting your team back just as if you drafted a first round bust.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
matt "interception" ryan?

peyton manning in junior and senior year: 23 INTs in 857 passing attempts

matt ryan in junior and senior year: 29 INTs in 1081 passing attempts

both of them equal 2.6% of total passes.

Wow, you find that one umimportant stat that supports your position and hang onto it for dear life, huh?

Ok, how many TDs did they throw? What was their yards per attempt?

ryan threw 31 td passes last year with hardly any talent at skilled positions. is that not enough for you? even though you endorsed henne who only threw 17? please be consistant

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grendel (2/27/2008)
red2play (2/27/2008)
The entire notion that you MUST use a first rd pick to get "the" Qb is stupid. The whole analysis is flawed.

Even more, is that we picked up Matt Schaub in the 3rd round just a few years ago. I guess he's no good because he was a 3rd rounder right?

The whole argument is baseless.

Best QB of last year's class so far? 3rd rounder Trent Edwards.

trent endwards > jamarcus russell?

are you sure?

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matthew1025 (2/27/2008)
Bottom Line:

D26A6639-4A6D-46AB-9AC3-BDFEDE017591.png

958B1AD7-88FE-4927-B3F3-C7C06CD8DC50.png

This supports the idea that we would be better off taking a shot on someone in the first round vs. a late pick-up, but says nothing on whether an individual player (e.g., Matt "Interception" Ryan) would be a good choice. I'm sure you could change my inherently subjective "success" criteria, but here's the data I used:

How in the world do any QB's drafted late 3rd to the end of the draft become busts... thats a little stupid... its not like they have anything hyped up like a first or second round pick to bust.... thats extremely odd

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Sure, I'm happy to draft someone capable of becoming the franchise "guy" Qb in the 2nd rd but Matt "afraid to play in Senior bowl or throw at the combine" Ryan won't be our pick anyways.

Much better talent and tons less risk at #3. Even still. There's always next year, after we can actually build a foundation for a Qb to come in and have some measure of success. Our OG, OT, DT's, RB, MLB, S, and new coaching staff along with a completely new system prove we don't have a team ready for a rookie Qb. Not even next year.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
matt "interception" ryan?

peyton manning in junior and senior year: 23 INTs in 857 passing attempts

matt ryan in junior and senior year: 29 INTs in 1081 passing attempts

both of them equal 2.6% of total passes.

Wow, you find that one umimportant stat that supports your position and hang onto it for dear life, huh?

Ok, how many TDs did they throw? What was their yards per attempt?

ryan threw 31 td passes last year with hardly any talent at skilled positions. is that not enough for you? even though you endorsed henne who only threw 17? please be consistant

How many INTs did Henne throw? Henne was also out for a big chunk of time with injuries, but excuses only work for Ryan, right?

I wouldnt say **** no... its not like Trent Edwards lit it up... and well Russell was the #1 overall pick who didn't really play

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trent edwards had more INTs then TDs, threw for an average of 160 yards per game, and had a passer rating in the 70s.

for someone so concerned with efficiency you sure do seem to pick and choose when you use it.

this isn't to say that edwards will be bad, but let's not put him in the hall of fame yet.

by the way, chad henne actually had a higher INT % then matt ryan, but that doesn't stop you from endorsing him.

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joremari (2/27/2008)
red2play (2/27/2008)
The entire notion that you MUST use a first rd pick to get "the" Qb is stupid. The whole analysis is flawed.

Even more, is that we picked up Matt Schaub in the 3rd round just a few years ago. I guess he's no good because he was a 3rd rounder right?

The whole argument is baseless.

it's actually not baseless. you can go back to 1989 and if you are looking for a franchise qb you are much, much better off looking in the first round as opposed to 2-7 (or 12 depending on which year).

since 1989 159 qbs have been seleceted in rounds other then the first. of those 159 qbs, only 14 have distinguished themselves as franchise guys. that's 8%.

history shows that you don't go looking for a franchise guy in later rounds. sometimes you get lucky, but more often then not you wont.

by not addressing the qb position with a true franchise guy you are setting your team back just as if you drafted a first round bust.

I would argue that we need a solid or better QB. The odds of picking up a franchise QB in any round is pretty low, and I don't think we should gamble that much salary cap on such an enormous gamble. The odds of getting a solid or better QB in round 1 is 41%. The odds of getting a solid or better QB in rounds 2 or 3 are 38.5%. I think the dropoff in salary demands is worth the 2.5% lower success rate. I don't think franchise QB's are the determination of where we should pick. If you want to do that assessment, what is the percentage of QB's that perform well without a decent OL? What is the success rate of OL taken in the first round? I think we should shoot for the sure thing, we can't afford to miss on a #3 pick when we are trying to rebuild. We also can't afford to tie that much money into a player that has a low likelihood of success.

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Petrino is NOT my hero (2/27/2008)

How in the world do any QB's drafted late 3rd to the end of the draft become busts... thats a little stupid... its not like they have anything hyped up like a first or second round pick to bust.... thats extremely odd

They may not be a "Bust" in the traditional sense of the word because they were taken so late, but the point is that they were not successful. So you have to apply some intelligence when analyzing the analysis, if you will.

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matthew1025 (2/27/2008)
Petrino is NOT my hero (2/27/2008)
matthew1025 (2/27/2008

How in the world do any QB's drafted late 3rd to the end of the draft become busts... thats a little stupid... its not like they have anything hyped up like a first or second round pick to bust.... thats extremely odd

It may not be a "Bust" in the traditional sense of the word because were taken so late, so you have to apply some intelligence when analyzing the analysis, if you will. The point is that they were not successful.

I just don't think you can even compare them... QB's drafted later rounds are not groomed to be starters like the first couple rounds... its just doesn't add up... Of course they aren't going to be as successful.. most of the time they aren't given a fair chance... while the early rounds QB's get every chance to start... im just saying that is a extremely flawed analysis if you think about it... enjoy

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What I took from it was there's about a 50% chance of being a bust/disappointment that doesn't change from 1st-3rd or 4th round. And looking at some of the "disappointments", I think you were too easy on them. If there's a 50% chance of a solid/franchise guy, I think we need to be positive that this is our guy, and he can play at the NFL level. I don't feel like that at all concerning Ryan. Let's wait until there's someone who we feel great about taking.

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Another Question, what has Matt Ryan shown that he is the "clear" number one? Has he shown he's a Peyton Manning? Eli? Carson?

There isn't a stat or anything to truly show he's a true #1 prospect. He still hasn't gone though his pro-day.

He could easily slip and without an arm, be a day two pick. Remember that Joey Harrington was picked in the first round?

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joremari (2/27/2008)
matt "interception" ryan?

peyton manning in junior and senior year: 23 INTs in 857 passing attempts

matt ryan in junior and senior year: 29 INTs in 1081 passing attempts

both of them equal 2.6% of total passes.

Peyton Manning's career at UT in perspective:

Year

Attempts Comp. Comp % Yards INT TD's

1994 144 89 61.8 1141 6 11

1995 380 244 64.2 2954 4 22

1996 380 243 63.9 3287 12 20

1997 477 287 60.37 3819 11 37

Total 1354 851 62.85 11201 33 90*

I wouldn't go complaining about 37 TDs to 11 ints in his senior campaign. He threw for 6 more TDs and 8 less ints as a senior. That's significant especially in the SEC versus ACC. Even if you consider 57 TDs to 23 ints versus 46 TDs to 29 ints in the two year period you brought up. I would say 11 more TDs during that period is more significant as well as 6 fewer ints. And all that was done with 1 less game played because now it's possible to play up to 14 games since 1 extra regular season game is allowed for teams with a conference championship.

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My Head Hurts -- Who/What Determined What QB Was Solid Or Not? This Breakdown Makes No Sense.

Just in the solid category:

A.J. Feely? Big disappointment when he was in Miami -- not too solid there

Aaron Brooks? Yet out of the NFL while guys like Doug Johnson, Joey Harrington, and Rex Grossman are still in and he is listed as solid?

Charlie Batch? 4 mediocre years in Detroit and now relegated to back-up status?

Chris Redman? A guy who didn't play a down from Mid 2003 to late 2007 solid?

Matt Shaub? His back-up Sage has won more games than him!

Sage Rosenfels? He was a back-up QB wasn't he? Yeah to that Shaub guy. :P

Josh McCowon? 3 teams in 5 years? That's not being very solid.

I just can't make heads or tails of what makes people on this list either solid - franchise (which there are guys listed there as franchises that aren't even with the team they were drafted by) - and how does someone get labelled as untested when they have played in 12 games in 2 seasons?

Here is a stat for you -- Since 2000:

1st round Qb appearances in Super Bowl - 7 ( 4 Wins - 3 Losses)

6th/9th/Compensatory/Undrafted QB appearances in the Super Bowl 8 (5 Wins - 3 Losses)

Looks like a push to me :P

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Greenwood (2/27/2008)
mathew 1025, I just looked at your list again and I had to laugh. Tavaris Jackson is terrible, awful, and atrocious. If you think he is solid then you should have no problem if the Falcons draft Matt Ryan.

I agree about Jackson. I don't think Jason Campbell has been a disappointment, though. He looks like he had potential before he got hurt.

I wouldn't call Vince Young a franchise QB yet. He was horrible last year. Very disappointing, even though the Titans made the playoffs.

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pzummo (2/27/2008)
This is a prime example of how statistics can be manipulated to draw false conclusions. Round 2 QB's had 3 busts in 11 picks. That's a 27% bust rate. Round 3 QB's had 4 out of 15, or 26.7%. Round 4 had 6 out of 13, or 46%. In other words, the success rate in rounds 2 and 3 are relatively even with round 1 QB success. Round 4 shows an enormous dropoff in success. In other words, we'd be MUCH better off taking a QB in the 2nd or 3rd without the cap investment of the #3 pick.

Correct! Stop trying to manipulate information and brainwash the masses. Why use our rare 3 pick overall on a position that has a 50% no success rate. I would much rather use it on a position that isn't risky - like D or O line.

Now, if we had maybe the 15th pick, then a QB could be an option. But come on guys, 3rd picks don't come every year. We got to use it wisely.

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