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vdclover

?? for anyone who thinks we should pass on Ryan

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vdclover (2/26/2008)
Everyone can agree that we need a QB, but the consensus is that we should pass on Ryan with the 3rd pick and pickup someone in the 2nd round, (Flacco,Henne, etc).

Alot of examples are given on how teams draft a QB in the 1st round and they turn out to be busts (Ryan Leaf,Alex Smith, Joey Harrington, etc).

But here is a question for those who believe we should go with a QB in the 2nd round

Over the last 10 years, who are/were the "good/great" QB's to come out of the 2nd round to backup this claim that we will get a QB just as good or better than Ryan in the 2nd round?

Drew Breeze is the only QB I can think of that fits this and he was the 1st pick in the second round.

The facts are that most of the starting QB's in the league are either 1st round picks or late(6-7th) round/non-drafted QB's.

It seems to me most scouts get it right about the quality of a QB deserving to be a 1st rnd selection.

There's a reason why the people who get paid to assess the talent say Ryan has all the tools to be a great QB and is rated quite higher than Henne, Flacco, & Woodson.

I'm not saying we should take Ryan, I'm just know that we need a quality long term QB and I'm not seeing alot of examples of where teams got their long term starting QB in the 2nd round.

Well, it doesn't make sense to include on QBs taken in the second round. You would have to include QBs taken rounds 2 and beyond. If this is the case, there are MANY good/great QBs taken after round 1.

However, your argument is a little biased toward picking a QB. Answer this, how many first round QBs have ever come into the NFL and been successful with a bad offensive line and not much of a running game?

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)

i don't see what makes brohm better then ryan. if you give ryan brohm's wr and i bet he puts us similar if not better numbers.

Brian Brohm did it for 4 years. Matt Ryan had one mediocre year and 2 sub-mediocre years. Blaming his receivers is ridiculous. BC's top receiver this year is a Sophomore, but he'll get drafted as high as Harry Douglas when he comes out. Keep in mind that everyone knew Brohm was going to be throwing, as well. His defense left him in a position where he had to put up 35 points to have a chance of winning.

If you don't see the difference between Ryan and Brohm's production and level of play, then there's no hope of having a rational conversation with you.

Actually, I think Brohm only did it for 3. And in a conference that doesn't play much defense.

And only 1 of those was REALLY good (2007).

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joremari (2/27/2008)
the research is all detailed out in this thread. when it comes to franchise qbs, first round qbs are much, much more successful. going back to 1989, popcornplayer has shown that first round qbs are bust at a 53% rate. I have show that since 1989, there have some 159 qbs taken in rounds 2-7 (or 12 depending on the year) while only 14 of those, or 9% have turned out to be franchise qbs.

the numbers dont lie...but the circumstances do.

of those qbs taken in later rounds almost all of them were taken with no intentions beyond being a backup or a project QB.

Teams that need a QB get one early. People mention Brady. Brady was never meant to be the starter when he was taken. Anderson was never meant to be the starter in CLE, or they wouldnt have taken Quinn in the first.

Teams who NEED a QB, traditionally have taken them in the first round. Even the teams who have late round franchise QBs usually have had a first round selection @ QB at the same time.

Brady - Bledsoe

Garrard - Leftwich

Anderson - Quinn

Brees - Rivers

etc....

All of these teams at one point or another considered it a need to get a QB in the opening round to lead their franchise.

My opinions dont say I think we WILL go after a QB in round one, but only because of my theory on teams changing the way of drftaing QBs (as mentioned earlier)

I do agree w you that if we NEED a QB, we should NOT be looking at the Brennans and Johnsons of the mid to late rounds as a solution, because the chances are it wont work.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
in the grand scheme of things, a #3 for a franchise qb is a great deal.

Other than his draft rating from so-called "gurus", what leads you to believe he's worth a 1st round pick, much less the #3? Why do you think he can be a franchise QB, and not Rex Grossman 2?

Who are we talking about here? Brohm or Ryan? :D

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bertr9 (2/27/2008)
vdclover (2/26/2008)
Everyone can agree that we need a QB, but the consensus is that we should pass on Ryan with the 3rd pick and pickup someone in the 2nd round, (Flacco,Henne, etc).

Alot of examples are given on how teams draft a QB in the 1st round and they turn out to be busts (Ryan Leaf,Alex Smith, Joey Harrington, etc).

But here is a question for those who believe we should go with a QB in the 2nd round

Over the last 10 years, who are/were the "good/great" QB's to come out of the 2nd round to backup this claim that we will get a QB just as good or better than Ryan in the 2nd round?

Drew Breeze is the only QB I can think of that fits this and he was the 1st pick in the second round.

The facts are that most of the starting QB's in the league are either 1st round picks or late(6-7th) round/non-drafted QB's.

It seems to me most scouts get it right about the quality of a QB deserving to be a 1st rnd selection.

There's a reason why the people who get paid to assess the talent say Ryan has all the tools to be a great QB and is rated quite higher than Henne, Flacco, & Woodson.

I'm not saying we should take Ryan, I'm just know that we need a quality long term QB and I'm not seeing alot of examples of where teams got their long term starting QB in the 2nd round.

Well, it doesn't make sense to include on QBs taken in the second round. You would have to include QBs taken rounds 2 and beyond. If this is the case, there are MANY good/great QBs taken after round 1.

However, your argument is a little biased toward picking a QB. Answer this, how many first round QBs have ever come into the NFL and been successful with a bad offensive line and not much of a running game?

that's actually not true. sure there are great qbs that were taken in later rounds, but they were the exception and not the rule. the research is detailed in earlier posts.

and i agree that ryan would fail if he had to start this year. but a qb should sit on the bench and learn. he, or any other qb we draft for that matter, wouldn't see the field until 2009 at the soonest, and that gives you alot of time to fix the oline and provide a running game.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)

Mike Mayock started this hype on Ryan and has kept pushing it all year. Very few "experts" who spout these rankings actually think for themselves. They mostly just regurgitate what they've gotten from others.

So, on that note... how is your opinion any better than theirs?

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)

i don't see what makes brohm better then ryan. if you give ryan brohm's wr and i bet he puts us similar if not better numbers.

Brian Brohm did it for 4 years. Matt Ryan had one mediocre year and 2 sub-mediocre years. Blaming his receivers is ridiculous. BC's top receiver this year is a Sophomore, but he'll get drafted as high as Harry Douglas when he comes out. Keep in mind that everyone knew Brohm was going to be throwing, as well. His defense left him in a position where he had to put up 35 points to have a chance of winning.

If you don't see the difference between Ryan and Brohm's production and level of play, then there's no hope of having a rational conversation with you.

He was injured in 2006 so there are circumstance.I have seen you work ryan for weeks now with disinformation.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)

i don't see what makes brohm better then ryan. if you give ryan brohm's wr and i bet he puts us similar if not better numbers.

Brian Brohm did it for 4 years. Matt Ryan had one mediocre year and 2 sub-mediocre years. Blaming his receivers is ridiculous. BC's top receiver this year is a Sophomore, but he'll get drafted as high as Harry Douglas when he comes out. Keep in mind that everyone knew Brohm was going to be throwing, as well. His defense left him in a position where he had to put up 35 points to have a chance of winning.

If you don't see the difference between Ryan and Brohm's production and level of play, then there's no hope of having a rational conversation with you.

you are acting as if i am the only person who rates Ryan higher then Brohm. Just about every single person who gets paid for their opinion on this have Ryan higher then Brohm.

You have no idea if that's true. The people whose ratings actually matter don't publish them on the internet, they write them up and include them in an NFL team's draft plan.

Mike Mayock started this hype on Ryan and has kept pushing it all year. Very few "experts" who spout these rankings actually think for themselves. They mostly just regurgitate what they've gotten from others.

about the underlined... what do you base that off of? do you have any proof of this?

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joremari (2/27/2008)
bertr9 (2/27/2008)
vdclover (2/26/2008)
Everyone can agree that we need a QB, but the consensus is that we should pass on Ryan with the 3rd pick and pickup someone in the 2nd round, (Flacco,Henne, etc).

Alot of examples are given on how teams draft a QB in the 1st round and they turn out to be busts (Ryan Leaf,Alex Smith, Joey Harrington, etc).

But here is a question for those who believe we should go with a QB in the 2nd round

Over the last 10 years, who are/were the "good/great" QB's to come out of the 2nd round to backup this claim that we will get a QB just as good or better than Ryan in the 2nd round?

Drew Breeze is the only QB I can think of that fits this and he was the 1st pick in the second round.

The facts are that most of the starting QB's in the league are either 1st round picks or late(6-7th) round/non-drafted QB's.

It seems to me most scouts get it right about the quality of a QB deserving to be a 1st rnd selection.

There's a reason why the people who get paid to assess the talent say Ryan has all the tools to be a great QB and is rated quite higher than Henne, Flacco, & Woodson.

I'm not saying we should take Ryan, I'm just know that we need a quality long term QB and I'm not seeing alot of examples of where teams got their long term starting QB in the 2nd round.

Well, it doesn't make sense to include on QBs taken in the second round. You would have to include QBs taken rounds 2 and beyond. If this is the case, there are MANY good/great QBs taken after round 1.

However, your argument is a little biased toward picking a QB. Answer this, how many first round QBs have ever come into the NFL and been successful with a bad offensive line and not much of a running game?

that's actually not true. sure there are great qbs that were taken in later rounds, but they were the exception and not the rule. the research is detailed in earlier posts.

and i agree that ryan would fail if he had to start this year. but a qb should sit on the bench and learn. he, or any other qb we draft for that matter, wouldn't see the field until 2009 at the soonest, and that gives you alot of time to fix the oline and provide a running game.

It doesn't matter if its the exception or not. I never said it was a given that they would be good from later rounds. Besides that, I said "Good"/Great. Not just great. There are plenty of good QBs that have come from latest rounds. And there are plenty of bad QBs that have come from the first round.

Also, I would include undrafted QBs in this list.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
bertr9 (2/27/2008)

The fact is, Brohm's worst season, statistically, is better than Ryan's best season.

Define "better". How do you determine its better.

Add to the fact that he plays in a conference that does not like to play defense.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
bertr9 (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)

Mike Mayock started this hype on Ryan and has kept pushing it all year. Very few "experts" who spout these rankings actually think for themselves. They mostly just regurgitate what they've gotten from others.

So, on that note... how is your opinion any better than theirs?

Mine at least has some basis in fact.

Riiiight. And everyone of a different opinion has been completely fabricating everything about Ryan.

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matt_jennifer (2/26/2008)
Why do we have to pick up a franchise qb this year. No body goes from 3rd worst in the league to being Super Bowl champs. Here are some of the people coming out next year. Tim Tebow(Only sophomore ever to win the Heisman), Chase Daniels tough as nails converted linebacker 33 tds with 11 interceptions, Todd Reesing 33 tds with 7 interceptions. There is also a couple of sleeper picks that will perform next college football season.

LOL at Tebow having a future in the NFL

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)

It's classic groupthink. If you look around, do you notice that you get almost exactly the same list of players in the same spots with the same descriptions? You assume that's a coincidence? It's also very fashion-oriented. If you watch the mock drafts, you'll see popular picks copied over and over. For months, it was hard to find a mock that didn't have us taking Matt Ryan, then you started seeing one or two giving us Dorsey or Jake Long, then that started spreading. It's just copied over and over.

You know what though... maybe there's a reason for that, other than your conspiracy theory.

Maybe its because as time goes on people opinions change. Maybe as time passes, people feel that Ryan is the better QB. And that Jake Long is the best tackle. I know it seems a bit far fetched, but it may hold some truth.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)

It's classic groupthink. If you look around, do you notice that you get almost exactly the same list of players in the same spots with the same descriptions? You assume that's a coincidence? It's also very fashion-oriented. If you watch the mock drafts, you'll see popular picks copied over and over. For months, it was hard to find a mock that didn't have us taking Matt Ryan, then you started seeing one or two giving us Dorsey or Jake Long, then that started spreading. It's just copied over and over.

What 5 teams?

South Florida? 1 TD and 3 INTs?

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grendal, explain how vick was a probowl qb with terrible stats and the falcons won more games with him at qb then any other qb.

stats don't tell the whole story. anyone who has watched vick and the falcons the last few years should know this.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
bertr9 (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)

Explain how a QB with statistics worse than any QB taken in the 1st round in a decade is suddenly a top 5 prospect. Explain how that's grounded in fact.

See... now you're person that only sees stats. Maybe you should consider that stats do not translate to NFL play. THAT is based in fact.

You can scream all day about how player A's stats are better than player B's, but it is not based in fact that it will translate well to the NFL.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)

i don't see what makes brohm better then ryan. if you give ryan brohm's wr and i bet he puts us similar if not better numbers.

Brian Brohm did it for 4 years. Matt Ryan had one mediocre year and 2 sub-mediocre years. Blaming his receivers is ridiculous. BC's top receiver this year is a Sophomore, but he'll get drafted as high as Harry Douglas when he comes out. Keep in mind that everyone knew Brohm was going to be throwing, as well. His defense left him in a position where he had to put up 35 points to have a chance of winning.

If you don't see the difference between Ryan and Brohm's production and level of play, then there's no hope of having a rational conversation with you.

you are acting as if i am the only person who rates Ryan higher then Brohm. Just about every single person who gets paid for their opinion on this have Ryan higher then Brohm.

You have no idea if that's true. The people whose ratings actually matter don't publish them on the internet, they write them up and include them in an NFL team's draft plan.

Mike Mayock started this hype on Ryan and has kept pushing it all year. Very few "experts" who spout these rankings actually think for themselves. They mostly just regurgitate what they've gotten from others.

about the underlined... what do you base that off of? do you have any proof of this?

It's classic groupthink. If you look around, do you notice that you get almost exactly the same list of players in the same spots with the same descriptions? You assume that's a coincidence? It's also very fashion-oriented. If you watch the mock drafts, you'll see popular picks copied over and over. For months, it was hard to find a mock that didn't have us taking Matt Ryan, then you started seeing one or two giving us Dorsey or Jake Long, then that started spreading. It's just copied over and over.

if you are going to throw out matt ryan as being good b/c of "groupthink" then you also have to throw out chris long, jake long, glenn dorsey, darren mcfadden and sedrick ellis.

either that, or maybe they are rated that high b/c they truelly are the top of their class.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendal, explain how vick was a probowl qb with terrible stats and the falcons won more games with him at qb then any other qb.

stats don't tell the whole story. anyone who has watched vick and the falcons the last few years should know this.

You know the probowl is a popularity contest,right?

and your point?

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grendel (2/27/2008)
bertr9 (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)

Well, feel free to believe everything you're told. I'll think for myself and believe my own eyes, thanks.

I'll continue to think the way I think. And I assume you'll continue to think the way you think.

It is ok for people to have different opinions. I believe its been this way since the beginning of time.

Fact of the matter is, nothing is a given. Your OPINION on Brian Brohm is not based in fact. If it was, there would be no question.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
bertr9 (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)
bertr9 (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)

Explain how a QB with statistics worse than any QB taken in the 1st round in a decade is suddenly a top 5 prospect. Explain how that's grounded in fact.

See... now you're person that only sees stats. Maybe you should consider that stats do not translate to NFL play. THAT is based in fact.

You can scream all day about how player A's stats are better than player B's, but it is not based in fact that it will translate well to the NFL.

So you're saying that being unable to read college coverages and thus throwing an unacceptable number of interceptions is a skill that will translate into NFL success? Well, it hasn't worked in the past, but sure, believe that if you like.

who said he is unable to read college defenses? you are pulling stuff completely out of the air now. do you have any proof whatsoever that his INT pct is directly related to his inablity to read a defense?

btw for a point of reference:

Peyton Manning's int pct in junior and senior years : 23 INTs in 857 attempts or 2.6% of passes

Ryan's int pct in junior and senior years: 29 INTs in 1081 attempts or 2.6% of passes

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Your responses consistently show that you don't think rationally about the two different situations.

Its obvious you only take into account statistics and don't see the big picture.

If you did, there's no way you could make the claims you make about the differences being undeniable.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
bertr9 (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)There really is no question. Matt Ryan is overhyped and unworthy of a top pick. Anyone who says otherwise is either selling something or already bought what's being sold.

:w00t:

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Manning threw a boatload more TDs though.

I think Ryans problem is NOT his ability to read a defense at all. Everything I read about him states that he is very smart and football savvy.

His problem is he tries to do it all. Since the team around him cant make it happen, he takes alot of chances he shoudlnt to try to carry the team. When no recievers can get seperation, you have to throw it into coverage. That doesnt mean he doesnt see the coverage, but what else can you do when you have a gunslinger mentality. I have also seen his WRs bobble balls into the defenses hands....all his INTS arent from him, thats for sure.

If Ryan can get over his 'its all on me' mentaility, he has the tools to be great IMO.

I am not sold on taking im, but am all for it if Dorsey and Jake Long are gone. There is no denying we need a QB very badly, and if TD thinks he is the best, we should get him.

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grendel (2/27/2008)
joremari (2/27/2008)
grendel (2/27/2008)

What was his TD / INT ratio? Over 3 to 1 his senior year. Matt Ryan's is around 1.5.

Brohm plays in a conference that doesn't play defense. The one team that did (South Florida) made him look like a high schooler. So...

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We should pass on him not because of his talent (I actually think he has a decent arm) but because our needs are greater elsewhere. Offensive Tackle is a premium spot these days and we really need two of those and a guard out of this draft. Quality guys like Flozell, Walter Jones, and other are commanding huge guarantees and we don't have that kind of money to spend. Also, we need a big guy to fill the void Grady left behind...we have no idea how Lewis is gonna be and with Coleman gone we need a DT. We need to get 1st and 3rd round talent at the OL position and 2nd round at DT so at best we could take a 4th round flyer on a QB but nothing else.

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