Jump to content

How I see the first 5 picks in 1st round going down


g-dawg
 Share

Recommended Posts

OK, here we go:

Miami Dolphins:

Obviously the Dolphins are the one team in the NFL which probably has more holes than the Atlanta Falcons. The Dolphins(like the Falcons) need QB, DT, DE, OT specifically. Unlike the Falcons, the Dolphins are settled at the running back position - scratch McFadden. For purposes of this post, I am assuming no trades for Dolphins(or anybody else, for that matter). If Jeff Ireland/Bill Parcells fall in love with Matt Ryan then he will be the pick. However, I think they will evaluate all QBs and determine (same as Dimitroff/Smith) that Matt Ryan is not sufficiently better than the rest of the QB talent this year. Given that, Miami rules out Matt Ryan. Next, the Dolphins look at the Defensive Tackle talent. With the Dolphins seemingly prepared to run the 3-4, they quickly realize that neither of these players is suited to play the NT position or DE in this system - so, scratch Dorsey and scratch Ellis. Thus, the two remaining players worthy of the top overall pick that also fit a need are Chris Long, DE-Virginia and Jake Long, OT-Michigan. I believe both are great players and Ireland/Parcells will like both of these guys who are "throwback" type players which train hard and give maximum effort. In the end, I think filling the Defensive End position in a 3-4 alignment -its very hard to find players with the size and athleticism to be "impact" players - this is why there are very few "all pros" playing defensive end in 3-4 alignments - usually the stars are the outside linebackers. However, Chris Long is big, mean and nasty and comes from pedigree in Howie Long.

The Miami Dolphins select.............Chris Long, DE-Virginia

MPXPNWOYALGCFQW.20071025155643.JPG

St. Louis Rams:

The St. Louis Rams have a decent amount of talent to be drafting this high. The Rams have stars at both the QB and RB position - scratch McFadden and Matt Ryan. The Rams need to rebuild both the offensive and defensive lines so Glen Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Jake Long are all possibilities. I think it will come down to Dorsey or Jake Long. I think Dorsey is slightly more talented than Jake Long but I also think Jake Long has got Dorsey beat "hands down" in all of the "intangible areas" of effort, dedication, training, etc. I also think that Offensive Tackle is a position which players usually enjoy longer careers than do defensive tackles. That's why.....

The St. Louis Rams select.................Jake Long, OT-Michigan

Jake%20Long%20Michigan.jpg

OK, here is where the coin flip comes into play. In all three positions/scenarios - I will assume both Chris Long and Jake Long are "long gone":P

1st scenario: Falcons win the coin flip - draft #3 overall

OK, let's get it out in the open: the Atlanta Falcons need almost everything - uggh! sad but true. The Atlanta Falcons need QB, RB, OT, DT, TE, ILB, S, etc......whew!!!! Ok, onto the analysis. With Jake Long off the board, we won't take an OT at #3 overall - that leaves the Falcons with Glen Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Darren McFadden. While McFadden is a tremendous prospect at a need position, I think there are some character red flags in the two barroom fights and some "playing" red flags in the long, slender lower body - long strider and lack of field vision - with there being a deep RB class and Falcons maybe looking for a different "style" of runner in Mularkey's "power running" offense, the Falcons "pass" on Darren McFadden. So, now we are down to Glen Dorsey versus Sedrick Ellis. Both players are fast and dominant. Dorsey's advantages are "larger size" and probably better run defender versus Ellis' advantage might be slightly better pass rusher and more durable. In the end, I think you "go bigger" at an interior defender position.

The Atlanta Falcons select(#3 overall)..............Glen Dorsey, DT-LSU

ncf_w_dorsey_195.jpg

2nd scenario: Falcons lose coin flip w/ Raiders win 2nd coin flip with Chiefs - draft #4 overall:

Ok, you've already read my arguments above, I assume the Oakland Raiders go for the flashy pick of Darren McFadden as the Raiders are always looking for Flashy. If the Raiders do go more conventional, I think they take Glen Dorsey - but for now, we assume McFadden.

The Oakland Raiders select(#3 overall)............Darren McFadden, RB-Arkansas

ncf_g_dmcfadden_300.jpg

The Atlanta Falcons select(#4 overall).............Glen Dorsey, DT-LSU

p><p>So, now we have Chris Long at #1 to

The KC Chiefs select (#4 overall)...........Matt Ryan, QB-Boston College

%7Boption%7Dhttp://images.athlonsports.com/d/6668-1/MattRyan_001.jpg' alt='MattRyan_001.jpg'>

The Atlanta Falcons select (#5 overall).....Glen Dorsey, DT-LSU

dorseyx.jpg

Wow, I just did this and tried to "logically" think through each teams pick - kind of suprised that it "did not matter" and we ended up with Glen Dorsey regardless of which pick we had.....but I think I could be right. Of course for those of you that like Sedrick Ellis more than Dorsey (could be most of you) then obviously you could insert Ellis here as well. I think we will end up with our choice of whichever one of these grades out higher on Dimitroff/Mike Smith's board. Both are very close in skills and ability. Just remember what your wife says - "bigger is better" ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sorry, somehow part of my post got erased and cannot seem to edit it - mod? please help...

anyway, scenario 3 got erased but I decide that the Chiefs would go "offense" and ignore the defensive tackles. They would look at Matt Ryan, QB and Ryan Clady, OT. Ultimately, the Chiefs would not be sufficiently confident enough in Brodie Croyle to ignore the #1 rated QB prospect in this draft.

The Kansas City Chiefs select(#4 overall):.........Matt Ryan, QB-Boston College:

MattRyan_001.jpg

The Atlanta Falcons select (#5 overall):.........Glen Dorsey, DT-LSU

dorseyx.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like your thought process! I have a gnawing feeling that if we get the third pick, Dallas will come a knocking. In that respect, I think the trade down is very much the way we go. We take both of Dallas' first round picks. Now, who we get down there is heavy conjecture. But with our plethora of holes, mo picks equals mo bodies in camp. And hopefully quantity can actually equal quality this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

herr doktor (2/18/2008)
I like your thought process! I have a gnawing feeling that if we get the third pick, Dallas will come a knocking. In that respect, I think the trade down is very much the way we go. We take both of Dallas' first round picks. Now, who we get down there is heavy conjecture. But with our plethora of holes, mo picks equals mo bodies in camp. And hopefully quantity can actually equal quality this time.

i'm open to the "trade down" if we get the right deal. Per the draft value chart, it would be unequal

Falcons pick (depending on coin flip)

1-003 = 2,200 pts.

1-004 = 1,800 pts.

1-005 = 1,700 pts.

Cowboys' picks:

1-22 = 780 pts.

1-29 = 640 pts.

Total = 1,420 pts.

Wow, big difference between pick values per draft chart. Obviously we need more:

difference:

1-003 = 780 pts short are the Cowboys = roughly Cowboys 2nd & 3rd and 1st next year+

1-004 = 380 pts short are the Cowboys = roughly Cowboys 2nd & 3rd(#61,#93 = 420pts)

1-007 = 280 pts short are the Cowboys = roughly Cowboys 2nd rounder(#61 = 292pts)

We need more than just the first rounders(#22, #29 - a lot more!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

nice work g-dawg. Here is my rundown. I am assuming that our coin flip luck continues and we end up with the fifth pick.

1 Miami...Chris Long. The best 3-4 defender. Parcells has to love this guy.

2 Saint Louis...Glenn Dorsey. The Rams expect to find a good OT in the second round, so they fill a big need on defense.

3 Oakland....Sedrick Ellis. McFadden is tempting but they already have Fargas and they drafted Bush last year. Ellis is an upgrade from Sapp. Ellis is a local guy and improves their defense.

4 Kansas City.... Jake Long.. This is who they need to protect their young QB and expensive RB.

5 Atlanta....Ryan Clady. How often does a team get a shot at a legitimate LT? Not often. Keep in mind that both Miami and ST Louis will be looking at OT's at the top of the second round.

Alternatives:

Matt Ryan....the media wants this pick for us. As far as I can tell, he is not an upgrade from Chris Redman.

Darren McFadden... We don't have the OL to protect him. It is as simple as that. We have Norwood and will probably add another bigger RB to the roster.

Kenny Phillips....I like him. He has the talent and character to become a star. He would certainly improve the middle of our defense. However, a safety at #5 is a tough sell.

Vernon Gholston....The Giants used smaller DL's to provide constant pressure. Anderson can add a little weight and slide inside. We would have a DL that looks a lot like the Giants. This one is a little off the wall, but I am trying to keep my mind open.

Stewart and Mendenhall. Both are good RB's ,but our OL stinks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

bgarcia28 (2/18/2008)
nice work g-dawg. Here is my rundown. I am assuming that our coin flip luck continues and we end up with the fifth pick.

1 Miami...Chris Long. The best 3-4 defender. Parcells has to love this guy.

2 Saint Louis...Glenn Dorsey. The Rams expect to find a good OT in the second round, so they fill a big need on defense.

3 Oakland....Sedrick Ellis. McFadden is tempting but they already have Fargas and they drafted Bush last year. Ellis is an upgrade from Sapp. Ellis is a local guy and improves their defense.

4 Kansas City.... Jake Long.. This is who they need to protect their young QB and expensive RB.

5 Atlanta....Ryan Clady. How often does a team get a shot at a legitimate LT? Not often. Keep in mind that both Miami and ST Louis will be looking at OT's at the top of the second round.

bgarcia,

as usual - good post.......I could see your scenario playing out as well......Can you imagine the HUGE SH*T STORM if the Falcons took Ryan Clady ahead of Darren McFadden? It would get ugly in the Atlanta media........having said that, I probably would do the same thing if I felt Clady was a very, very good left tackle prospect.

boy though, all **** would break loose.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

bgarcia,

as usual - good post.......

I could see your scenario playing out as well......Can you imagine the HUGE SH*T STROM

Thanks g-dawg. You know, the more I look at this draft the better I feel. No matter how it shakes out, we will be a better team. That is why I wanted to assume that we lose the coin flips. Regardless of where we end up, we will be fine. For example, if we pick fifth, maybe Dimitroff hedges his bet and signs Corey Williams to rotate with Babs.

As a rule, I don't like RB's in the first round, but, I would even support a McFadden pick. Heck, he is not a bad RB.

Do you know when the coin flip takes place? Is it on Wednesday, or at the end of the Combine?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

bgarcia28 (2/18/2008)
bgarcia,

as usual - good post.......

I could see your scenario playing out as well......Can you imagine the HUGE SH*T STROM

Thanks g-dawg. You know, the more I look at this draft the better I feel. No matter how it shakes out, we will be a better team. That is why I wanted to assume that we lose the coin flips. Regardless of where we end up, we will be fine. For example, if we pick fifth, maybe Dimitroff hedges his bet and signs Corey Williams to rotate with Babs.

As a rule, I don't like RB's in the first round, but, I would even support a McFadden pick. Heck, he is not a bad RB.

Do you know when the coin flip takes place? Is it on Wednesday, or at the end of the Combine?

bgarcia,

interesting thought on Dimitroff hedging his bets by signing a bigger name in free agency if we drop to #5. hmmmmmm......

regarding coin flip, as far as we know right now, there is no specified time as of yet. Believe it or not, I think its a pretty informal deal. Once everybody gets up to Indy, I think the GMs call each other and pick a time/place and tell them to send over an NFL official - that may not be exactly how it goes but just the fact that its not scheduled yet tells you of the informality of it all...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

g-dawg (2/18/2008)
OK, here we go:

Miami Dolphins:

Obviously the Dolphins are the one team in the NFL which probably has more holes than the Atlanta Falcons. The Dolphins(like the Falcons) need QB, DT, DE, OT specifically. Unlike the Falcons, the Dolphins are settled at the running back position - scratch McFadden. For purposes of this post, I am assuming no trades for Dolphins(or anybody else, for that matter). If Jeff Ireland/Bill Parcells fall in love with Matt Ryan then he will be the pick. However, I think they will evaluate all QBs and determine (same as Dimitroff/Smith) that Matt Ryan is not sufficiently better than the rest of the QB talent this year. Given that, Miami rules out Matt Ryan. Next, the Dolphins look at the Defensive Tackle talent. With the Dolphins seemingly prepared to run the 3-4, they quickly realize that neither of these players is suited to play the NT position or DE in this system - so, scratch Dorsey and scratch Ellis. Thus, the two remaining players worthy of the top overall pick that also fit a need are Chris Long, DE-Virginia and Jake Long, OT-Michigan. I believe both are great players and Ireland/Parcells will like both of these guys who are "throwback" type players which train hard and give maximum effort. In the end, I think filling the Defensive End position in a 3-4 alignment -its very hard to find players with the size and athleticism to be "impact" players - this is why there are very few "all pros" playing defensive end in 3-4 alignments - usually the stars are the outside linebackers. However, Chris Long is big, mean and nasty and comes from pedigree in Howie Long.

The Miami Dolphins select.............Chris Long, DE-Virginia

MPXPNWOYALGCFQW.20071025155643.JPG

St. Louis Rams:

The St. Louis Rams have a decent amount of talent to be drafting this high. The Rams have stars at both the QB and RB position - scratch McFadden and Matt Ryan. The Rams need to rebuild both the offensive and defensive lines so Glen Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Jake Long are all possibilities. I think it will come down to Dorsey or Jake Long. I think Dorsey is slightly more talented than Jake Long but I also think Jake Long has got Dorsey beat "hands down" in all of the "intangible areas" of effort, dedication, training, etc. I also think that Offensive Tackle is a position which players usually enjoy longer careers than do defensive tackles. That's why.....

The St. Louis Rams select.................Jake Long, OT-Michigan

Jake%20Long%20Michigan.jpg

OK, here is where the coin flip comes into play. In all three positions/scenarios - I will assume both Chris Long and Jake Long are "long gone":P

1st scenario: Falcons win the coin flip - draft #3 overall

OK, let's get it out in the open: the Atlanta Falcons need almost everything - uggh! sad but true. The Atlanta Falcons need QB, RB, OT, DT, TE, ILB, S, etc......whew!!!! Ok, onto the analysis. With Jake Long off the board, we won't take an OT at #3 overall - that leaves the Falcons with Glen Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis and Darren McFadden. While McFadden is a tremendous prospect at a need position, I think there are some character red flags in the two barroom fights and some "playing" red flags in the long, slender lower body - long strider and lack of field vision - with there being a deep RB class and Falcons maybe looking for a different "style" of runner in Mularkey's "power running" offense, the Falcons "pass" on Darren McFadden. So, now we are down to Glen Dorsey versus Sedrick Ellis. Both players are fast and dominant. Dorsey's advantages are "larger size" and probably better run defender versus Ellis' advantage might be slightly better pass rusher and more durable. In the end, I think you "go bigger" at an interior defender position.

The Atlanta Falcons select(#3 overall)..............Glen Dorsey, DT-LSU

ncf_w_dorsey_195.jpg

2nd scenario: Falcons lose coin flip w/ Raiders win 2nd coin flip with Chiefs - draft #4 overall:

Ok, you've already read my arguments above, I assume the Oakland Raiders go for the flashy pick of Darren McFadden as the Raiders are always looking for Flashy. If the Raiders do go more conventional, I think they take Glen Dorsey - but for now, we assume McFadden.

The Oakland Raiders select(#3 overall)............Darren McFadden, RB-Arkansas

ncf_g_dmcfadden_300.jpg

The Atlanta Falcons select(#4 overall).............Glen Dorsey, DT-LSU

p><p>So, now we have Chris Long at #1 to

The KC Chiefs select (#4 overall)...........Matt Ryan, QB-Boston College

%7Boption%7Dhttp://images.athlonsports.com/d/6668-1/MattRyan_001.jpg' alt='MattRyan_001.jpg'>

The Atlanta Falcons select (#5 overall).....Glen Dorsey, DT-LSU

dorseyx.jpg

Wow, I just did this and tried to "logically" think through each teams pick - kind of suprised that it "did not matter" and we ended up with Glen Dorsey regardless of which pick we had.....but I think I could be right. Of course for those of you that like Sedrick Ellis more than Dorsey (could be most of you) then obviously you could insert Ellis here as well. I think we will end up with our choice of whichever one of these grades out higher on Dimitroff/Mike Smith's board. Both are very close in skills and ability. Just remember what your wife says - "bigger is better" ;)

Chris Long is such a monster. I really wish we hadn't drafted Jamal Anderson Last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...