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To All Those Worried About Matt Ryan's Stats


VickIsAmazing
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I've read numerous threads about how Matt Ryan should not be our franchise quarterback, and while I do agree, I noted the arguements that people bring up. The one I hear brought up the most is his "##### poor" stats in college. Now, from personal experience, I know that means absolutely nothing.

Let me explain, I live in Bowling Green Ohio, home of the Bowling Green Falcons. Recently we had a quarterback come from our team who one year was considered in Heisman talks, and some felt that he would challenge Vince Young, Jay Cutler, and Matt Leinart for the top quarterback spot. Who? Omar Jacobs. Why? He had the best touchdown to interception ratio in NCAA history, he threw 41 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions! However, once the scouts started breaking the guy down they loved his athleticism and his size (6'5", 200+ lbs), but some key flaws were noted, such as his release point, and as the Steelers found out, his inability to learn a playbook. Needless to say he spent the season in Canada on the IR.

What am I trying to say here? If we based everything on statistics, Omar Jacobs would have been a clear number one pick, but he wasn't. There's a huge difference between being a collegiate quarterback and an NFL quarterback. Despite Ryan's average numbers, there must be something there if scouts are projecting him that high. Basically, don't judge a quarterback by his numbers.

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the ability to come back from a deficit in a crucial game shows great leadership and knowledge of reading defenses.........which ryan did againt VT, if a QB plays well under pressure and casual while not under pressure, i would take that QB in a heartbeat.....for example.......eli manning, mediocre season, phenominal post season..........i'm for getting ryan as a QB.

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Stats mean nothing but he still sucks. He comes from a college with no real competition.

When he had a chance to show his stock, he declined to go to the Senior Bowl. That isn't a baller. You can't play scared at the Qb position and you can't be afraid of competition.

Me personally, I wouldn't care if I sucked it up at the Senior Bowl. At least the best of the best would be there and I could go against them. That's the spirit of a champion. Last year, Calvin Johnson went to the combine when he didn't have to. That's the kind of player we should draft. Not scared kittens that sit on the sidelines when they would have a chance to compete. That's a stat that can't be overlooked.

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red2play (2/11/2008)
Stats mean nothing but he still sucks. He comes from a college with no real competition.

When he had a chance to show his stock, he declined to go to the Senior Bowl. That isn't a baller. You can't play scared at the Qb position and you can't be afraid of competition.

Me personally, I wouldn't care if I sucked it up at the Senior Bowl. At least the best of the best would be there and I could go against them. That's the spirit of a champion. Last year, Calvin Johnson went to the combine when he didn't have to. That's the kind of player we should draft. Not scared kittens that sit on the sidelines when they would have a chance to compete. That's a stat that can't be overlooked.

just because he doens't play any team in the SEC doesn't mean he faces weak teams.......the acc itself is still a very competitive conference.

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grendel (2/11/2008)When he finally did make a play, it was a throw back across the field that he floated up and would have been picked against an NFL defense.

Sure, you could make that point, or you could say that he was merely exploiting their weakness on defense because he knew they wouldn't get to that cross field pass and he wouldn't have thrown that in the NFL. It's just a case of he has what you want in a franchise quarterback, but then again, so did Ryan Leaf.

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grendel (2/11/2008)
dirtybird025 (2/11/2008)
the ability to come back from a deficit in a crucial game shows great leadership and knowledge of reading defenses.........which ryan did againt VT, if a QB plays well under pressure and casual while not under pressure, i would take that QB in a heartbeat.....for example.......eli manning, mediocre season, phenominal post season..........i'm for getting ryan as a QB.

You obviously didn't watch that game. Play well under pressure? You want a different QB, because Matt Ryan looked horrible when he was under pressure. He only was able to come back because VT stopped pressuring him and gave him a full 30 seconds to run around back there. When he finally did make a play, it was a throw back across the field that he floated up and would have been picked against an NFL defense.

*ahem*

who won the game?

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VickIsAmazing (2/11/2008)
I've read numerous threads about how Matt Ryan should not be our franchise quarterback, and while I do agree, I noted the arguements that people bring up. The one I hear brought up the most is his "##### poor" stats in college. Now, from personal experience, I know that means absolutely nothing.

Let me explain, I live in Bowling Green Ohio, home of the Bowling Green Falcons. Recently we had a quarterback come from our team who one year was considered in Heisman talks, and some felt that he would challenge Vince Young, Jay Cutler, and Matt Leinart for the top quarterback spot. Who? Omar Jacobs. Why? He had the best touchdown to interception ratio in NCAA history, he threw 41 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions! However, once the scouts started breaking the guy down they loved his athleticism and his size (6'5", 200+ lbs), but some key flaws were noted, such as his release point, and as the Steelers found out, his inability to learn a playbook. Needless to say he spent the season in Canada on the IR.

What am I trying to say here? If we based everything on statistics, Omar Jacobs would have been a clear number one pick, but he wasn't. There's a huge difference between being a collegiate quarterback and an NFL quarterback. Despite Ryan's average numbers, there must be something there if scouts are projecting him that high. Basically, don't judge a quarterback by his numbers.

He played in a weak confrence he was just the Colt Brenan of that time.....Matt Ryan put up Average numbers and is being hailed as the best QB prospect in years i dont think anyone here thinks Ryan is bad hes just really really over hyped and we have to go by numbers thats all we have..

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When last season began everyone was saying we would be ok because Joey had a good season in 2003 and he would do the same in Atlanta even though he had thrown more INTs than TDs in his career - blamed it on bad coaching on the other teams he played --- funny none of those same people are sticking up for Joey now

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dirtybird025 (2/11/2008)
grendel (2/11/2008)
dirtybird025 (2/11/2008)
the ability to come back from a deficit in a crucial game shows great leadership and knowledge of reading defenses.........which ryan did againt VT, if a QB plays well under pressure and casual while not under pressure, i would take that QB in a heartbeat.....for example.......eli manning, mediocre season, phenominal post season..........i'm for getting ryan as a QB.

You obviously didn't watch that game. Play well under pressure? You want a different QB, because Matt Ryan looked horrible when he was under pressure. He only was able to come back because VT stopped pressuring him and gave him a full 30 seconds to run around back there. When he finally did make a play, it was a throw back across the field that he floated up and would have been picked against an NFL defense.

*ahem*

who won the game?

You want to talk about coming up big in a big game? In the ACC CHAMPIONSHIP, the weather wasn't pouring down rain like the first game, and Ryan should have flourished. Instead, he got dominated.

And I'm pretty sure Ryan threw 2 picks late in the game (one of which was in the redzone) that sealed the win for VA Tech.

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No, stats are not everything. Matt Ryan doesn't have the performance nor consistency to warrant his status right now, either.

His decision making is ##### poor, to say the least. He forces the ball into double or triple coverage many times and is extremely lucky that his INT total for this season isn't double what it is. I saw several balls get dropped by defenders in various games.

At no point during this season or last did I see Matt Ryan play and think to myself "now there's a future NFL starter." For a while I thought he had potential to come in and maybe be a decent QB for someone like Chicago, but as the hype and draft stock have continued to be built up in the absence of anything substantial.... well, he just strikes me as a huge bust in the making at this point. He won't go to a team that is mostly put together and just lacking a QB to groom and install... he'll go to a craptacular team in the top 5 or maybe top 10 who will bite on his hype despite far outweighing needs at other positions.

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I have seen about 4 BC games on the box and at no point have I thought that I hope we draft him with our first pick. I have nothing against Matt, he may turn out to be great and if we pick him I ll rooting for him.

This thread is about stats so here's my take on that.

A top 3-5 pick is so important and I just don t feel comfortable paying $50-60 mil on a 1.6/1 TD/INT and less than 60% completion rate when BCs schedule wasn t that tough . I know stats aren t everything but those stats are poor for a high 1st rounder.

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dirtybird025 (2/11/2008)
the ability to come back from a deficit in a crucial game shows great leadership and knowledge of reading defenses.........which ryan did againt VT,

Ryan played absolutely miserable football against VT 118 out of 120 minutes. I don't think that's a team you want to use as a positive in evaluating him as a player.

PS: Jeebus, you would wipe the floor with me at Halo. Wow.

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grendel (2/11/2008)
VickIsAmazing (2/11/2008)
I've read numerous threads about how Matt Ryan should not be our franchise quarterback, and while I do agree, I noted the arguements that people bring up. The one I hear brought up the most is his "##### poor" stats in college. Now, from personal experience, I know that means absolutely nothing.

Let me explain, I live in Bowling Green Ohio, home of the Bowling Green Falcons. Recently we had a quarterback come from our team who one year was considered in Heisman talks, and some felt that he would challenge Vince Young, Jay Cutler, and Matt Leinart for the top quarterback spot. Who? Omar Jacobs. Why? He had the best touchdown to interception ratio in NCAA history, he threw 41 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions! However, once the scouts started breaking the guy down they loved his athleticism and his size (6'5", 200+ lbs), but some key flaws were noted, such as his release point, and as the Steelers found out, his inability to learn a playbook. Needless to say he spent the season in Canada on the IR.

What am I trying to say here? If we based everything on statistics, Omar Jacobs would have been a clear number one pick, but he wasn't. There's a huge difference between being a collegiate quarterback and an NFL quarterback. Despite Ryan's average numbers, there must be something there if scouts are projecting him that high. Basically, don't judge a quarterback by his numbers.

there's a basic concept that seems to be not at all taught in GA schools anymore.

"necessary but not sufficient"

All college QB's with great stats are not great NFL QB's, but all great NFL QB's had great stats in college. The only halfway decent QB who had crappy stats in college is Matt Hasselbeck. The 2 best QB's, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, each had over 3 TDs for every INT they threw in their Senior Season. All of the great ones have over 2 to 1.

Matt Ryan has 1.5 to 1.

I take it the schools and people from where you come from don t foster any kind of decision making skills. Go ahead and continue to think that your eyes only see the truth. Go ahead and keep think that a trend or desired component are all that matters. Brett Favre didn t have a 2 to 1 ratio coming out of school. Eli Manning didn t have a 2 to 1 ratio this year and he was an integral part of his team winning the super bowl. Go ahead and point out the fact that he had a good defense and prove one of my points. The people around you will impact your overall performance in a team sport.

Bottom line, this process is about evaluating people. All different kinds of players have been successful and failed in the NFL. There is no magic formula. The 2 to 1 ratio is not a valid sole indicator of where a player should be picked. Players do get better and buck trends. Eli Manning just helped his team win the Super Bowl. Guess what, if Matt Ryan is picked top 5 by Atlanta and he does the same thing it s the best move the franchise ever made.

The mere fact that so many QB s with great stats have not been successful should be evidence enough that maybe there is some other quality or qualities that make a successful QB. You should not evaluate people like they come off some assembly line. History has proven that, both inside and outside of sports. In your world, there is no room for the hard worker, over achiever or motivator b/c they are not good enough. Joe Montana should not have even attempted to play in the NFL, because he is not tall enough. Super Bowl championships should only be reserved for Dan Marion and Jim Kelly b/c they fit the mold. Doesn t matter if the numbers are physical attributes or statistics, you can t just throw somebody out with the bath water b/c he does not fit. If you do you will miss out on a lot. This is the reason in the country we have interviews and multiple evaluators in all kinds of aspects of life, not just sports.

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isproab (2/12/2008)

Brett Favre didn t have a 2 to 1 ratio coming out of school. Eli Manning didn t have a 2 to 1 ratio this year and he was an integral part of his team winning the super bowl.

Favre came up two decades ago at a school almost no one had heard of at the time. The game has evolved dramatically since then in terms of passing efficiency. With regards to Manning, comparing college stats to the pros is a total waste of time. Compare Ryan to other college passers and the point is clear. There were 60 major college QBs more efficient than him in 2007.

The 2 to 1 ratio is not a valid sole indicator of where a player should be picked. Players do get better and buck trends. Eli Manning just helped his team win the Super Bowl.

First of all, Manning's college stats as a senior absolutely smoke Ryan's. He had 29 TDs against 10 INTs with a completion percentage of 62.4% at a clip of 8.16 yards per attempt. Using Eli would be an example of how stats matter in evaluating a QB. This is exactly why you don't want to confuse college numbers with pro ones.

To the point about players getting better, one of the worst mistakes a talent evaluator can make is to grade a player based on what they could grow to be if everything went right rather than to honestly examine who the player is as they enter the draft. Ryan could evolve into a shockingly good QB. That could be said of any QB in this draft. What is not up for debate is the fact that his college resume is not one that justifies a first round selection. He makes too many mistakes and is not productive enough statistically on each pass attempt. He jumps off the page as a college system QB.

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Please post some stats to back your claims about these guys.

I don't care what Eli's stats were THIS YEAR, we're talking about evaluating college talent.

Again, rather than try (unsuccessfully) to tear down the very real reasons why Matt Ryan has no reason to be in the 1st round, please post some rationale for Matt Ryan's high draft stock. If we throw out stats and watching them in games, what are we left with? You say plenty of guys with bad stats have been successful, which I think is completely incorrect and isn't backed it up with any numbers, but if it were true, how should we choose who to pick up? Even with stats and real measurements being used for the most part, we end up with Matt Ryan at the top of the draft for no particular reason right now. If we were to subscribe to your crazy notion, the draft might as well be a lottery and you just get whatever player your team's name lands on.

Carson Palmer's Career.

http://usctrojans.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl...r_carson00.html

How successful has Matt Hasselbeck been. Somebody was really wrong about him in the evaluation process. Looks like a lot of teams missed out.

http://bceagles.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/...passing-records

As far as the evaluation, you look at all the numbers, b/c they are all important. One being importanta does not mean the others are null and void. You watch the film, you look at how he impacted the game, you interview him and then you make a decision. So you don't like Ryan ok, I get it. Thats not going to change the fact of where he ranks on teams draft boards. It only takes one team to like him. Everybody says Ryan does not have a high upside. Meaning there is not a lot of untapped potential. All a guy with high upside means is that he has not done anything and is far from ever doing anything. A slight improvement and Ryan could be just as good as any past top draft picks at QB.

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grendel (2/12/2008)
isproab (2/12/2008)

Please post some stats to back your claims about these guys.

I don't care what Eli's stats were THIS YEAR, we're talking about evaluating college talent.

Again, rather than try (unsuccessfully) to tear down the very real reasons why Matt Ryan has no reason to be in the 1st round, please post some rationale for Matt Ryan's high draft stock. If we throw out stats and watching them in games, what are we left with? You say plenty of guys with bad stats have been successful, which I think is completely incorrect and isn't backed it up with any numbers, but if it were true, how should we choose who to pick up? Even with stats and real measurements being used for the most part, we end up with Matt Ryan at the top of the draft for no particular reason right now. If we were to subscribe to your crazy notion, the draft might as well be a lottery and you just get whatever player your team's name lands on.

Carson Palmer's Career.

http://usctrojans.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl...r_carson00.html

How successful has Matt Hasselbeck been. Somebody was really wrong about him in the evaluation process. Looks like a lot of teams missed out.

http://bceagles.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/...passing-records

As far as the evaluation, you look at all the numbers, b/c they are all important. One being importanta does not mean the others are null and void. You watch the film, you look at how he impacted the game, you interview him and then you make a decision. So you don't like Ryan ok, I get it. Thats not going to change the fact of where he ranks on teams draft boards. It only takes one team to like him. Everybody says Ryan does not have a high upside. Meaning there is not a lot of untapped potential. All a guy with high upside means is that he has not done anything and is far from ever doing anything. A slight improvement and Ryan could be just as good as any past top draft picks at QB.

Carson Palmer is a great example. A quote from the article you linked:

Overall in 2002 while starting for his fourth season, he completed 309-of-489 passes (63.2%) for 3,942 yards, 33 TDs and 10 interceptions.

In what way does that look like Matt Ryan's stats?

Matt Hasselbeck is the only guy I've seen whose college career was poor and has done well in the NFL. I think it's a testament to Holmgren more than anything, but the exception does not make the rule.

Yes, coaching and individual improvement is big. Every player is expected to improve and get better in the NFL. I don't know one guy that was graded as perfect with no flaws.

In order to improve and play at a high level you at least have to have talent to be put in a position to be successful. Ryan has more than enough talent to fit the bill for some NFL team.

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