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Just how crucial is this coin flip?!?!


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No ones seems to be talking about it, so I will. Every mock draft has us picking third, and I'm assuming that's because they're just putting the three teams subject to next weeks coin flip in alphabetical order.

However gentleman (and you few ladies), let us not forget exactly what this could potentially mean to us. There are fewer "elite" prospects in this years draft that there were in last years, and there were 7 last year. We picked #8 (A.P. would look pretty good in red and black, no??).

Ryan will go #1, which for me is great, I want nothing, nothing, to do with him. Parcells has never used a top pick on a RB, in fact, he hates the idea. He's drafted #1 overall twice before and one of those picks was used on Drew Bledsoe, who we all know Parcells is in love with and thinks Ryan is very similar. Cleo Lemon certainly isn't the answer to anything and Beck was a wasted draft pick (and he's also 27, old for a first year player....he went on a Mormon mission for a few years in college). Ryan will go #1.

St. Louis, at #2, can go in a few directions. My thinking is that they will take Jake Long. Orlando Pace is getting up there in age and is coming off a serious injury. Although DT/DE is a possibility, and they may feel Dorsey/Long is too good to pass up, they did draft Adam Carriker last year out of Nebraska and he has the potential to be very good.

That brings us to the #3 pick. Assuming of course that I'm correct in the above two (and obviously, no one knows at this point, everything said and heard is pure speculation), imagine the possibilities for our new coach and GM if they had the luxury of choosing between McFadden, Dorsey, Ellis, or C. Long. ****, even if I'm wrong and it end Dorsey #1 we still have options.

One thing is clear: McFadden will be there at #3. Parcells won't take him and St. Louis doesn't need him. Whether or not we want him, wouldn't it be great to have the luxury of not being forced to? If I'm right with the top 2 picks and Dorsey goes 3rd and McFadden 4th, we're forced to take the best player available at that point, either Ellis or C. Long (and my sleeper pick, Aqib Talib).

No matter what way you look at it, this team needs playmakers. Everywhere. Whether it be on the O-line (Jake Long), the D-Line (Dorsy, Ellis, Chris Long, Gholston), the backfield (McFadden) or wherever, the more options the better. The only negative is that it will have an impact on salary cap, which is not in very good shape to begin with.

With all that being said, I think we take McFadden. Whether or not it's the best thing to do, it's simply (in my opinion), a mistake to pass on a player that doesn't come arond very often. Last year it was Peterson, and this year McFadden, but they do not come around very often, at all. Jake long is this year, Thomas was last year, Gallery before that. Dimitroff can find tackles late, and even though there are some very good RB's to be had later in the draft (I think Mendenhall and Steward will both be fantastic), you simply can't pass on a Peterson/L.T. hybrid. No way.

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David Ethan (2/11/2008)
No ones seems to be talking about it, so I will. Every mock draft has us picking third, and I'm assuming that's because they're just putting the three teams subject to next weeks coin flip in alphabetical order.

However gentleman (and you few ladies), let us not forget exactly what this could potentially mean to us. There are fewer "elite" prospects in this years draft that there were in last years, and there were 7 last year. We picked #8 (A.P. would look pretty good in red and black, no??).

Ryan will go #1, which for me is great, I want nothing, nothing, to do with him. Parcells has never used a top pick on a RB, in fact, he hates the idea. He's drafted #1 overall twice before and one of those picks was used on Drew Bledsoe, who we all know Parcells is in love with and thinks Ryan is very similar. Cleo Lemon certainly isn't the answer to anything and Beck was a wasted draft pick (and he's also 27, old for a first year player....he went on a Mormon mission for a few years in college). Ryan will go #1.

St. Louis, at #2, can go in a few directions. My thinking is that they will take Jake Long. Orlando Pace is getting up there in age and is coming off a serious injury. Although DT/DE is a possibility, and they may feel Dorsey/Long is too good to pass up, they did draft Adam Carriker last year out of Nebraska and he has the potential to be very good.

That brings us to the #3 pick. Assuming of course that I'm correct in the above two (and obviously, no one knows at this point, everything said and heard is pure speculation), imagine the possibilities for our new coach and GM if they had the luxury of choosing between McFadden, Dorsey, Ellis, or C. Long. ****, even if I'm wrong and it end Dorsey #1 we still have options.

One thing is clear: McFadden will be there at #3. Parcells won't take him and St. Louis doesn't need him. Whether or not we want him, wouldn't it be great to have the luxury of not being forced to? If I'm right with the top 2 picks and Dorsey goes 3rd and McFadden 4th, we're forced to take the best player available at that point, either Ellis or C. Long (and my sleeper pick, Aqib Talib).

No matter what way you look at it, this team needs playmakers. Everywhere. Whether it be on the O-line (Jake Long), the D-Line (Dorsy, Ellis, Chris Long, Gholston), the backfield (McFadden) or wherever, the more options the better. The only negative is that it will have an impact on salary cap, which is not in very good shape to begin with.

With all that being said, I think we take McFadden. Whether or not it's the best thing to do, it's simply (in my opinion), a mistake to pass on a player that doesn't come arond very often. Last year it was Peterson, and this year McFadden, but they do not come around very often, at all. Jake long is this year, Thomas was last year, Gallery before that. Dimitroff can find tackles late, and even though there are some very good RB's to be had later in the draft (I think Mendenhall and Steward will both be fantastic), you simply can't pass on a Peterson/L.T. hybrid. No way.

That my friend is what i have been trying to tell everyone

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Honestly, unless we intend to trade the pick, it's not that important. We'll be looking at the same players at #5 that we would at #3. And at least one if not two that we love will still be there. Plus, that player will be quite a bit cheaper in terms of salary cap space and guaranteed money. If we trade the pick, it's crucial. #3 is worth 2,200 points while #4 is worth 1,800 and #5 is worth 1,700. The difference between winning and losing the coin flip is the equivalent of the #50 pick in the draft.

Say, for example, that we traded down to #7 (1,500) with NE. If we pick at #3 (2,200), they would have to give up the #62 (284 points), Oakland's #67 (255 points), their #94 (124 points) and the #126 (46 points) to give approximate value. If we pick at #4, the same scenario drops to 1,800 points on each end, meaning NE only needs to give us the #62 (284 points) and their #190 (15.4 points). That's three additional picks in the top 95 and a fourth at #126 we get for the #3 versus only one true value pick, the #62, and a very late rounder. The difference is startling.

Change the scenario to Baltimore at #8, and the results are still brutal. The #8 is worth 1,400. So, for Baltimore to get up to #4, they only need to make up 400 points. Their second round pick is worth 500 points, meaning we would not be getting an additional pick. We would simply be swapping our fourth rounder (100 points) for their second rounder (500 points) in a swap from #8 to #4. Conversely, if we pick at #3, they have to give up their second rounder (500 points), their third rounder (230 points) and an upgrade from our sixth rounder to their fourth rounder (about 70 points of difference depending on compensatory picks).

Numerically, the Baltimore deal breaks down as their #8 and #40 for our #4 and #100 if we lose the coin toss. If we win it, the deal changes to their #8, #40, #72 and #104 for our #3 and #177.

For New England, the deal breaks down as #8, #62 and #190 for the #4. If we win the coin flip, it's their #7, #62, #67, #94, and #126 for our #3.

In terms of mock draft examples, think of it this way. If we lose the first coin toss and pick at #4, we effectively trade with Baltimore in order to get say Pat Sims instead of Dre Moore at DT. If we win the coin toss, the trade becomes Curtis Lofton, Red Bryant and Eric Young (instead of Chilo Rachal).

The New England mock would be something like Carl Nicks and Chase Ortiz if we lose the coin flip. Winning the coin toss changes it to Carl Nicks, Red Bryant, Matt Forte and Harry Douglas.

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To be honest, I hope we lose the coin flip. The talent level available at picks 3 through 5 is the same, but pick 5 is going to be a million bucks cheaper than 3. If the Falcons are interested in trading down, they should have an easier time trading the number 5 pick.

My best case scenario is Dorsey or Ellis falling to 5, the Falcons trading with the Bengals at number 9. We get Cincy's 1st and 2nd round picks plus one additional pick in another draft and we draft...

Ryan Clady OT Boise St.

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What would Dimitroff do in the following scenario?

We win the coin flip and pick at #3. Miami takes Ryan and St Louis takes Jake Long.

Would Dimitroff draft either one of the elite DT's? Would he go for the PR move of drafting the next Bush? (Obviously, I am against the McFadden pick**). Or, would he talk to Jerry Jones and trade the #3 for two first rounders and Marion Barber?

I have to admit that I would have a tough time deciding. What if my scouts come back to me and rave about K Balmer and P Sims? What if I could add a sledge hammer of a RB and still draft an impactful DT and OL in the first round? I think I might make that trade. However, if there are attitude problems with either Sims or Balmer, I would go for the sure thing and draft Ellis/ Dorsey.

** I firmly believe that McFadden will be an exciting NFL RB. We will watch him have a successful career and possibly see him play in several pro bowls. He is certaily going to be featured in several national commercials. So, why would I not suggest we draft him? Because we are far from being ready for him. We don't have the interior OL to give him a fair chance. We don't have a defense that can put the ball back into his hands. And, finally, we already have a big play RB in Norwood. We need a RB that can run with authority between the tackles. McFadden is not the right choice for us at this time....to bad, it would have been fun to see him featured in Red and Black.

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yes, I definitely want the #3 pick (who wouldn't?) but I am not too worried.....you are right in the fact that there were 7 "elite" players and Falcons had the #8 pick.

This year, there are 5 "elite" players (plus Matt Ryan:D) - so, the Falcons are covered and Falcons will get an "elite" player as long as they don't take Matt Ryan(:D).

My Board:

1) Jake Long, LT

2) Glen Dorsey, DT

3) Sedrick Ellis, DT

4) Darren McFadden, RB

5) Chris Long, DE

Worst case scenario if we end up with #5 overall would be that Chris Long - the Defensive End - is the player left who is an elite player but at a position that we don't really need (assuming that Jamaal Anderson pans out). If this were to happen and I was Thomas Dimitroff, I would trade down with someone who wanted Chris Long - and target an offensive tackle like Ryan Clady.

More than likely, somebody else would take Chris Long (Dolphins, Rams and Raiders all are strong possibilities). If that happens, we are really set. If someone takes Chris Long ahead of us and someone else (i.e. Dolphins, Chiefs) take Matt Ryan ahead of us - then this would be ultimate scenario because we would get to choose between two of our targets (Jake Long, Glen Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Darren McFadden).

So, long story-short, I think the Falcons will be "just fine" if we end up with the lowest possible pick(#5). Also, remember that the teams that finished with same records - they flip the order in the even rounds - so this would give Falcons an earlier 2nd round pick - this could be important since we could be looking at OT/DT/QB with that first 2nd round pick and we could get the jump on Oakland and KC there.

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bgarcia28 (2/12/2008)
What would Dimitroff do in the following scenario?

We win the coin flip and pick at #3. Miami takes Ryan and St Louis takes Jake Long.

Would Dimitroff draft either one of the elite DT's? Would he go for the PR move of drafting the next Bush? (Obviously, I am against the McFadden pick**). Or, would he talk to Jerry Jones and trade the #3 for two first rounders and Marion Barber?

I have to admit that I would have a tough time deciding. What if my scouts come back to me and rave about K Balmer and P Sims? What if I could add a sledge hammer of a RB and still draft an impactful DT and OL in the first round? I think I might make that trade. However, if there are attitude problems with either Sims or Balmer, I would go for the sure thing and draft Ellis/ Dorsey.

** I firmly believe that McFadden will be an exciting NFL RB. We will watch him have a successful career and possibly see him play in several pro bowls. He is certaily going to be featured in several national commercials. So, why would I not suggest we draft him? Because we are far from being ready for him. We don't have the interior OL to give him a fair chance. We don't have a defense that can put the ball back into his hands. And, finally, we already have a big play RB in Norwood. We need a RB that can run with authority between the tackles. McFadden is not the right choice for us at this time....to bad, it would have been fun to see him featured in Red and Black.

bgarcia,

I agree with your entire line of thinking here - I really doubt that Cowboys are willing to trade Marion Barber - but yes, I would strongly consider that deal - still might not do it though. dunno

I am also of the opinion not to get McFadden. I really like McFadden but I think he does have some flaws and I don't think he is as good as Adrian Peterson.

I really love Jake Long and I think Jake will be available. If not, I would be taking Glen Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis......we want a first round pick bringing a "kick arss" attitude and I think any of those three would do it.

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