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Obama Ahead in Cali, Close in NJ and MO


DomeGnome
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Wow. Thats some momentum.

Clinton, Obama in close Super Tuesday races

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent 1 hour, 15 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are running neck-and-neck in California, New Jersey and Missouri two days before the sprawling "Super Tuesday" presidential showdown, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.

Obama has a slight lead in California and is virtually tied with Clinton in New Jersey and Missouri heading into the biggest day of voting in a U.S. presidential nominating campaign, with contests in 24 states from coast to coast.

"It looks like we have some serious horse races going on with Clinton and Obama," said pollster John Zogby said. "However it turns out, we can be pretty sure it is too close to be resolved on Tuesday."

Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, has a comfortable 20-point lead in Georgia fueled by a more than 3-to-1 advantage over Clinton among black voters.

In the Republican race, Arizona Sen. John McCain has double-digit leads on Mitt Romney in New York, New Jersey and Missouri but narrowly trails the former Massachusetts governor in California, the biggest prize on "Super Tuesday."

Romney leads McCain by 37 percent to 34 percent in California. The poll's margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.

"California could be Romney's last stand," Zogby said. "If he wins there, it may not be a whole new ballgame, but it can give those Republicans who oppose McCain hope they still have a chance to stop him."

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll surveyed the presidential races in both parties in California, New Jersey and Missouri. The polls, taken Thursday through Saturday, also included the Republican race in New York and the Democratic race in Georgia. Polling will continue through Monday.

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Thing one: Zogby sucks as a pollster.

Thing two: A lot of the large states (sans NY) are trending toward Obama. He's got two more days to close the gap, but the state-specific polling is so splotchy that I don't put much faith in them. I suspect the national polls will be a better reflection of how the candidates will do, at least on the Democratic side (where delegates are allocated proportionally).

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DomeGnome (2/3/2008)
ATLBear (2/3/2008)
I find the best source to be Real Clear Politics, as they average all the polls.

Here's the California race.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...ia-primary.html

RCP does a fine job but is an average over the last week.

It's longer than a week depending upon how many active polls are working. Obviously, the major races run polls very frequently. However, how else are you to measure current trends other than using the latest data? Just look at voter swings before and after each primary.
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ATLBear (2/3/2008)
DomeGnome (2/3/2008)
ATLBear (2/3/2008)
I find the best source to be Real Clear Politics, as they average all the polls.

Here's the California race.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...ia-primary.html

RCP does a fine job but is an average over the last week.

It's longer than a week depending upon how many active polls are working. Obviously, the major races run polls very frequently. However, how else are you to measure current trends other than using the latest data? Just look at voter swings before and after each primary.

RCP is okay, but DG's right that they average over the past week. The problem with that is the average is extremely sensitive to which polls were taken, especially in states where there's a scarcity of polls. The RCP average also doesn't give you day-by-day trends, so it's a rather blunt instrument.

I like Pollster.com's approach of using loess regression to get trend estimates. It is essentially a more conservative version of what RCP does when they graph their average over time. The RCP averages will catch real trends, but they will also pick up "house effects" that are due to which polls were included in their average that day or week. So a sudden bump for McCain could mean that McCain is on the rise, or it could mean that a couple of polls that week drew weird samples, or it could mean that the composition of polls included more firms that tend to overestimate McCain's actual share. The problem with RCP is that we're never sure which of these is being represented. Because the Pollster.com loess trend lines are created to be conservative, they are less sensitive to results from one or two very recent polls, meaning that you can have more confidence that the graphs are picking up actual trends in the campaign.

Here's a link:

http://pollster.com

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