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The Democratic Primary In Georgia . . . This will be interesting!


HolyMoses
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I am getting the feeling, purely anectodaly, that the Black vote in Georgia will not be as much of a landslade for Obama as it was in S.C. But I think he WILL get more of the white.

I am guessing that Obama will get at least 15% less of the black vote here than he did in South Carolina, and at least 5 percent more of the white vote.

Somehow, I think the old school Democratic politics have a very strong hold on many blacks, particularly the less educated ones. (One constant in the Democratic contest thus far is that the more affluent and educated Democratic voters are supporting Obama.)

I have been startled by the number of Blacks I have spoken to who have volunteered that they are voting for Hillary because "Obama is a Muslim" or "I voted for Bill and he was good enough".

To the extent that the black community in Georgia can be divided into the "Bill Campbell" camp and the "Shirly Franklin" camp, I think that the former is strongly entenched for Hillary and the latter for Obama.

It's deeply troubling to me.

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Twinblade (1/29/2008)
I read the **** thing, you have a "feeling" and assuming that whites will vote for Obama more then Blacks.

Perhaps I wasn't clear: I think that blacks will vote for Obama more than whites, but the discrepency won't be as much as it was in SC. Compared with the SC vote, I think Obama will get more than 5% more OF the white vote, but 15% LESS of the black vote. Obama got something like 85 percent of the black vote in South Carolina. I don't think the number will be that high here. But blacks will still vote for Obama more than whites.

Of course, you'll be voting in the Republican primary, so don't worry you're pretty little head about this stuff.

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Prediction: The gender gap will be bigger in Georgia than the race gap, especially among white women. I bet a HUGE percentage of Hillary's support will come from white women . . . . maybe 80%.

White males will be at least 65% for Obama

Black males at least 85% for Obama

White females at least 75% for Clinton

Black females around 60% for Obama

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holymoses (2/5/2008)
Prediction: The gender gap will be bigger in Georgia than the race gap, especially among white women. I bet a HUGE percentage of Hillary's support will come from white women . . . . maybe 80%.

White males will be at least 65% for Obama

Black males at least 85% for Obama

White females at least 75% for Clinton

Black females around 60% for Obama

Check for yourself:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries...s/epolls/#GADEM

Exit polls show Obama beating Clinton 66.5% to 31.1%.

That's an arze whoopin' there.

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Ramen (2/5/2008)
holymoses (2/5/2008)
Prediction: The gender gap will be bigger in Georgia than the race gap, especially among white women. I bet a HUGE percentage of Hillary's support will come from white women . . . . maybe 80%.

White males will be at least 65% for Obama

Black males at least 85% for Obama

White females at least 75% for Clinton

Black females around 60% for Obama

Check for yourself:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries...s/epolls/#GADEM

Exit polls show Obama beating Clinton 66.5% to 31.1%.

That's an arze whoopin' there.

Can't start better than THAT!!! I knew it was a good sign when NPR had someone from the Clinton Ga. headquarters saying "Exit polling shows Clinton ahead with women and Latino voters."

Which is a little like saying during a Bucs game from 2001-2005: The Falcons QB has more rushing yards than the Bucaneers QB.

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Ramen (2/5/2008)
No gender gap among blacks.

##### Matt Drudge, only puts up the early exit polls for the Dems AND doesn't put up the early results for Georgia for us to compare against the final exits. What an arzehole! :angry:

Would you believe that was a typo? Honestly, I meant to say there would be a large AGE gap among blacks, reiterating what I said in the innitial post on this thread.

You'll have to take my word on that, ofcourse. But there wasn't much of one anyway. I was right on the trends, but way off on the numbers . . . and the trends weren't exactly rocket science.

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Ramen (2/5/2008)
Huckabee wins Arkansas (no surprise). That's two states in his column, and exit polls show him with the lead in Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.

Sarcasm? (I've ignored the republican polls, assuming the game was over)

I TOTALLY forgot one of the great truths of America, and one which will have a HUGE effect on things tonight: MASSACHUSSETS IS THE SINGLE MOST RACIST STATE IN AMERICA!!!!

It's like where all the liberal Klansmen live or something. Will ANYONE CALL them on that as the results come in? Is there ANY other explanation for Massachussets exit polls show numbers as favorable for Clinton as N.Y.? . . .

. . . uh, wait a minute. Maybe I should have checked the actual POLLS first, rather than the early actual numbers. Obama's exit polling just fine there. We'll have to see how that turns up. The predictive polls were pretty favorable to Hillary, and I couldn't understand why, until I remembered the racism thing up there. They are SO racist, they even put WHITE folks in their ghetto's! (Ever been to "South B"?)

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One thing that is certain to favor Obama as the Democrat race stays tight and goes longer and longer: Obama is CERTAIN to pick up some net votes simply by virtue of Clinton's strongest base. Today, the old fart vote might be 25% . . . but those folks are dying every day . . .

(sick. Funny? but sick)

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holymoses (2/5/2008)
One thing that is certain to favor Obama as the Democrat race stays tight and goes longer and longer: Obama is CERTAIN to pick up some net votes simply by virtue of Clinton's strongest base. Today, the old fart vote might be 25% . . . but those folks are dying every day . . .

(sick. Funny? but sick)

Gobama. Bring him home McKay!
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I think it is VERY important for Obama to get within 20% in New York. The exit polls predict it but they are pretty useless too many times. However, he IS within 15% in the two largest counties, Brooklyn and Manhatten. And each of them have only 1/3 reporting. Compare to 80% of the JAP vote in Suffolk county that has already been counted (30% edge to Hillary)

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holymoses (2/5/2008)
I think it is VERY important for Obama to get within 20% in New York. The exit polls predict it but they are pretty useless too many times. However, he IS within 15% in the two largest counties, Brooklyn and Manhatten. And each of them have only 1/3 reporting. Compare to 80% of the JAP vote in Suffolk county that has already been counted (30% edge to Hillary)

It's shaping up to be a VERY good night for Obama. California will be the key.

Also, I'd like to see how his supported is distributed geographically across congressional districts in each of the states. If he's losing (or winning!) narrowly across all of the districts then it's the same as a winner-take-all. If he and Clinton are splitting districts then the delegate count will reflect the vote share, which favors Obama.

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Ramen (2/5/2008)
holymoses (2/5/2008)
I think it is VERY important for Obama to get within 20% in New York. The exit polls predict it but they are pretty useless too many times. However, he IS within 15% in the two largest counties, Brooklyn and Manhatten. And each of them have only 1/3 reporting. Compare to 80% of the JAP vote in Suffolk county that has already been counted (30% edge to Hillary)

It's shaping up to be a VERY good night for Obama. California will be the key.

Also, I'd like to see how his supported is distributed geographically across congressional districts in each of the states. If he's losing (or winning!) narrowly across all of the districts then it's the same as a winner-take-all. If he and Clinton are splitting districts then the delegate count will reflect the vote share, which favors Obama.

ESPECIALLY in New York and California.

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