HolyMoses Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 I am getting the feeling, purely anectodaly, that the Black vote in Georgia will not be as much of a landslade for Obama as it was in S.C. But I think he WILL get more of the white. I am guessing that Obama will get at least 15% less of the black vote here than he did in South Carolina, and at least 5 percent more of the white vote.Somehow, I think the old school Democratic politics have a very strong hold on many blacks, particularly the less educated ones. (One constant in the Democratic contest thus far is that the more affluent and educated Democratic voters are supporting Obama.) I have been startled by the number of Blacks I have spoken to who have volunteered that they are voting for Hillary because "Obama is a Muslim" or "I voted for Bill and he was good enough".To the extent that the black community in Georgia can be divided into the "Bill Campbell" camp and the "Shirly Franklin" camp, I think that the former is strongly entenched for Hillary and the latter for Obama. It's deeply troubling to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twinblade Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 I really think more blacks will vote for Obama here then SC, after all ATL is full of blacks (not a racist way) Clinton will not win in GA anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolyMoses Posted January 30, 2008 Author Share Posted January 30, 2008 Twinblade (1/29/2008)I really think more blacks will vote for Obama here then SC, after all ATL is full of blacks (not a racist way) Clinton will not win in GA anyways.Did you actually read the post? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twinblade Posted January 30, 2008 Share Posted January 30, 2008 I read the **** thing, you have a "feeling" and assuming that whites will vote for Obama more then Blacks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolyMoses Posted January 30, 2008 Author Share Posted January 30, 2008 Twinblade (1/29/2008)I read the **** thing, you have a "feeling" and assuming that whites will vote for Obama more then Blacks.Perhaps I wasn't clear: I think that blacks will vote for Obama more than whites, but the discrepency won't be as much as it was in SC. Compared with the SC vote, I think Obama will get more than 5% more OF the white vote, but 15% LESS of the black vote. Obama got something like 85 percent of the black vote in South Carolina. I don't think the number will be that high here. But blacks will still vote for Obama more than whites.Of course, you'll be voting in the Republican primary, so don't worry you're pretty little head about this stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robpanama Posted January 30, 2008 Share Posted January 30, 2008 I told you guys the Islam issue had legs.Does Hilliary need my vote or can I vote ABH? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrklean Posted January 30, 2008 Share Posted January 30, 2008 robpanama (1/29/2008)I told you guys the Islam issue had legs.Does Hilliary need my vote or can I vote ABH?Only backwards a@@ hicks like you think like this!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolyMoses Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 Prediction: The gender gap will be bigger in Georgia than the race gap, especially among white women. I bet a HUGE percentage of Hillary's support will come from white women . . . . maybe 80%.White males will be at least 65% for ObamaBlack males at least 85% for ObamaWhite females at least 75% for ClintonBlack females around 60% for Obama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramen Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 holymoses (2/5/2008)Prediction: The gender gap will be bigger in Georgia than the race gap, especially among white women. I bet a HUGE percentage of Hillary's support will come from white women . . . . maybe 80%.White males will be at least 65% for ObamaBlack males at least 85% for ObamaWhite females at least 75% for ClintonBlack females around 60% for ObamaCheck for yourself:http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries...s/epolls/#GADEMExit polls show Obama beating Clinton 66.5% to 31.1%.That's an arze whoopin' there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolyMoses Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 Ramen (2/5/2008)holymoses (2/5/2008)Prediction: The gender gap will be bigger in Georgia than the race gap, especially among white women. I bet a HUGE percentage of Hillary's support will come from white women . . . . maybe 80%.White males will be at least 65% for ObamaBlack males at least 85% for ObamaWhite females at least 75% for ClintonBlack females around 60% for ObamaCheck for yourself:http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries...s/epolls/#GADEMExit polls show Obama beating Clinton 66.5% to 31.1%.That's an arze whoopin' there.Can't start better than THAT!!! I knew it was a good sign when NPR had someone from the Clinton Ga. headquarters saying "Exit polling shows Clinton ahead with women and Latino voters."Which is a little like saying during a Bucs game from 2001-2005: The Falcons QB has more rushing yards than the Bucaneers QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolyMoses Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 One more prediction before I check the exit polls: Reiterating a BIG GENDER gap among black voters. Older Clinton . . . 40% or so YOunger Clinton less than 20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSlick Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 Barack got 88% of black votes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramen Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 No gender gap among blacks.##### Matt Drudge, only puts up the early exit polls for the Dems AND doesn't put up the early results for Georgia for us to compare against the final exits. What an arzehole! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramen Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 Listing of current exit poll results in a nice table format:http://www.pollster.com/blogs/super_tuesday_exit_polls.phpAlso, it looks like Huckabee could win Alabama AND Tennessee, in addition to the squeaker in Georgia. That would be devastating for Romney.Here's a direct link to exit poll results:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660890/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolyMoses Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 Ramen (2/5/2008)No gender gap among blacks.##### Matt Drudge, only puts up the early exit polls for the Dems AND doesn't put up the early results for Georgia for us to compare against the final exits. What an arzehole! Would you believe that was a typo? Honestly, I meant to say there would be a large AGE gap among blacks, reiterating what I said in the innitial post on this thread. You'll have to take my word on that, ofcourse. But there wasn't much of one anyway. I was right on the trends, but way off on the numbers . . . and the trends weren't exactly rocket science. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramen Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 Huckabee wins Arkansas (no surprise). That's two states in his column, and exit polls show him with the lead in Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramen Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 Huckabee wins Alabama. Surprise, surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramen Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 McCain's won 5 out of the 7 winner-take-all states (DE, CT, NJ, AZ, and NY). If he picks up MO and perhaps MT, it's probably over for Romney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
savwboy9 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 Ramen (2/5/2008)McCain's won 5 out of the 7 winner-take-all states (DE, CT, NJ, AZ, and NY). If he picks up MO and perhaps MT, it's probably over for Romney.It is already over for this guy!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolyMoses Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 Ramen (2/5/2008)Huckabee wins Arkansas (no surprise). That's two states in his column, and exit polls show him with the lead in Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.Sarcasm? (I've ignored the republican polls, assuming the game was over)I TOTALLY forgot one of the great truths of America, and one which will have a HUGE effect on things tonight: MASSACHUSSETS IS THE SINGLE MOST RACIST STATE IN AMERICA!!!!It's like where all the liberal Klansmen live or something. Will ANYONE CALL them on that as the results come in? Is there ANY other explanation for Massachussets exit polls show numbers as favorable for Clinton as N.Y.? . . . . . . uh, wait a minute. Maybe I should have checked the actual POLLS first, rather than the early actual numbers. Obama's exit polling just fine there. We'll have to see how that turns up. The predictive polls were pretty favorable to Hillary, and I couldn't understand why, until I remembered the racism thing up there. They are SO racist, they even put WHITE folks in their ghetto's! (Ever been to "South B"?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolyMoses Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 One thing that is certain to favor Obama as the Democrat race stays tight and goes longer and longer: Obama is CERTAIN to pick up some net votes simply by virtue of Clinton's strongest base. Today, the old fart vote might be 25% . . . but those folks are dying every day . . . (sick. Funny? but sick) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kicker23 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 holymoses (2/5/2008)One thing that is certain to favor Obama as the Democrat race stays tight and goes longer and longer: Obama is CERTAIN to pick up some net votes simply by virtue of Clinton's strongest base. Today, the old fart vote might be 25% . . . but those folks are dying every day . . . (sick. Funny? but sick)Gobama. Bring him home McKay! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolyMoses Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 I think it is VERY important for Obama to get within 20% in New York. The exit polls predict it but they are pretty useless too many times. However, he IS within 15% in the two largest counties, Brooklyn and Manhatten. And each of them have only 1/3 reporting. Compare to 80% of the JAP vote in Suffolk county that has already been counted (30% edge to Hillary) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramen Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 holymoses (2/5/2008)I think it is VERY important for Obama to get within 20% in New York. The exit polls predict it but they are pretty useless too many times. However, he IS within 15% in the two largest counties, Brooklyn and Manhatten. And each of them have only 1/3 reporting. Compare to 80% of the JAP vote in Suffolk county that has already been counted (30% edge to Hillary)It's shaping up to be a VERY good night for Obama. California will be the key.Also, I'd like to see how his supported is distributed geographically across congressional districts in each of the states. If he's losing (or winning!) narrowly across all of the districts then it's the same as a winner-take-all. If he and Clinton are splitting districts then the delegate count will reflect the vote share, which favors Obama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramen Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 Ramen (2/5/2008)holymoses (2/5/2008)I think it is VERY important for Obama to get within 20% in New York. The exit polls predict it but they are pretty useless too many times. However, he IS within 15% in the two largest counties, Brooklyn and Manhatten. And each of them have only 1/3 reporting. Compare to 80% of the JAP vote in Suffolk county that has already been counted (30% edge to Hillary)It's shaping up to be a VERY good night for Obama. California will be the key.Also, I'd like to see how his supported is distributed geographically across congressional districts in each of the states. If he's losing (or winning!) narrowly across all of the districts then it's the same as a winner-take-all. If he and Clinton are splitting districts then the delegate count will reflect the vote share, which favors Obama.ESPECIALLY in New York and California. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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