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Alright HolyMoses, it's the day of reckoning. Make or break time for Obama.


Ramen
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Not.

First, I think he'll win tonight.

Even if he doesn't you can't expect a candidate who raised $100 million to get out at this date. Thats like saying if Hillary loses tonight she'll get out.

There's still too much at stake on 2/5 and if JRE stays relevant (and he seems to be gaining momentum again) no candidate is going to get enough delegates before the convention.

...then it's JRE's call as to who the nomination goes to.

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DomeGnome (1/26/2008)
Not.

First, I think he'll win tonight.

Even if he doesn't you can't expect a candidate who raised $100 million to get out at this date. Thats like saying if Hillary loses tonight she'll get out.

There's still too much at stake on 2/5 and if JRE stays relevant (and he seems to be gaining momentum again) no candidate is going to get enough delegates before the convention.

...then it's JRE's call as to who the nomination goes to.

I'm convinced the whole Clinton scorched earth philosophy in SC this week has been to drive down Obama (and Hillary, if necessary) SOLEY to bring Edwards up and keep him in the race for Super Tuesday.

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DomeGnome (1/26/2008)
Not.

First, I think he'll win tonight.

Even if he doesn't you can't expect a candidate who raised $100 million to get out at this date. Thats like saying if Hillary loses tonight she'll get out.

There's still too much at stake on 2/5 and if JRE stays relevant (and he seems to be gaining momentum again) no candidate is going to get enough delegates before the convention.

...then it's JRE's call as to who the nomination goes to.

He obviously won't drop out if he loses. But if Obama can't win in South Carolina where nearly half of the voters will be African American then where can he win? I don't think he's got a shot at the nomination if he can't win in southern, diverse electorates.

That said, the polls show him up by a huge lead today. But that was also the case with NH.

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Ramen (1/26/2008)
DomeGnome (1/26/2008)
Not.

First, I think he'll win tonight.

Even if he doesn't you can't expect a candidate who raised $100 million to get out at this date. Thats like saying if Hillary loses tonight she'll get out.

There's still too much at stake on 2/5 and if JRE stays relevant (and he seems to be gaining momentum again) no candidate is going to get enough delegates before the convention.

...then it's JRE's call as to who the nomination goes to.

He obviously won't drop out if he loses. But if Obama can't win in South Carolina where nearly half of the voters will be African American then where can he win? I don't think he's got a shot at the nomination if he can't win in southern, diverse electorates.

That said, the polls show him up by a huge lead today. But that was also the case with NH.

Iowa?

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Ramen (1/26/2008)
DomeGnome (1/26/2008)
Not.

First, I think he'll win tonight.

Even if he doesn't you can't expect a candidate who raised $100 million to get out at this date. Thats like saying if Hillary loses tonight she'll get out.

There's still too much at stake on 2/5 and if JRE stays relevant (and he seems to be gaining momentum again) no candidate is going to get enough delegates before the convention.

...then it's JRE's call as to who the nomination goes to.

He obviously won't drop out if he loses. But if Obama can't win in South Carolina where nearly half of the voters will be African American then where can he win? I don't think he's got a shot at the nomination if he can't win in southern, diverse electorates.

That said, the polls show him up by a huge lead today. But that was also the case with NH.

A third place finish for HRC might stop all of the nonsense. I have not enjoyed all of the antics of this week and the last thing I want to see is that strategy rewarded.

Time to get back to real topics facing us.

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Early exit polls from today show Obama ahead by double-digits. This should be a pretty easy win for him. He needs to make tonight a big deal, because the Clintons are obviously doing everything possible to downplay the SC primary and making it sound meaningless so they don't lose any momentum.

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holymoses (1/26/2008)
Iowa?

Iowa is great for propelling non-frontrunner candidates into the spotlight, but the type of "retail" politics that lets candidates like Obama and Huckabee win there is not the same as the "wholesale" politics (mass campaign ads) that you see in the large primary states. If Obama doesn't get a decisive win (like he did in Iowa), I don't see how he's going to be able to compete in other southern states, let alone the larger states like California and New York.

I've been wrong before, but I think he needs this one to have a shot at winning the nomination.

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Suppo81 (1/26/2008)
Early exit polls from today show Obama ahead by double-digits. This should be a pretty easy win for him. He needs to make tonight a big deal, because the Clintons are obviously doing everything possible to downplay the SC primary and making it sound meaningless so they don't lose any momentum.

I didn't realize any exit polls had been released yet. Where did you see these?

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Ramen (1/26/2008)
Suppo81 (1/26/2008)
Early exit polls from today show Obama ahead by double-digits. This should be a pretty easy win for him. He needs to make tonight a big deal, because the Clintons are obviously doing everything possible to downplay the SC primary and making it sound meaningless so they don't lose any momentum.

I didn't realize any exit polls had been released yet. Where did you see these?

If you go to realclearpolitics.com and go to their SC Primary blog, they've released some exit poll info. Here's one nugget I found on there:

6:32PM - Some more exit poll nuggets from ABC News:

Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just over half are blacks this year; if that holds in final data later tonight, it would be the highest turnout among African-Americans in any Democratic presidential primary at least since 1984.

Turnout among women is high as well -- they account for six in 10 voters, similar to their 57 percent share in 2004 and higher than their 52 percent in the 1992 exit poll. (There were no South Carolina Democratic primaries in 1996 or 2000.)

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Suppo81 (1/26/2008)
Ramen (1/26/2008)
Suppo81 (1/26/2008)
Early exit polls from today show Obama ahead by double-digits. This should be a pretty easy win for him. He needs to make tonight a big deal, because the Clintons are obviously doing everything possible to downplay the SC primary and making it sound meaningless so they don't lose any momentum.

I didn't realize any exit polls had been released yet. Where did you see these?

If you go to realclearpolitics.com and go to their SC Primary blog, they've released some exit poll info. Here's one nugget I found on there:

6:32PM - Some more exit poll nuggets from ABC News:

Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just over half are blacks this year; if that holds in final data later tonight, it would be the highest turnout among African-Americans in any Democratic presidential primary at least since 1984.

Turnout among women is high as well -- they account for six in 10 voters, similar to their 57 percent share in 2004 and higher than their 52 percent in the 1992 exit poll. (There were no South Carolina Democratic primaries in 1996 or 2000.)

Can't find it for some reason. Could you give a link to the blog, please?

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Ramen (1/26/2008)
Suppo81 (1/26/2008)
Ramen (1/26/2008)
Suppo81 (1/26/2008)
Early exit polls from today show Obama ahead by double-digits. This should be a pretty easy win for him. He needs to make tonight a big deal, because the Clintons are obviously doing everything possible to downplay the SC primary and making it sound meaningless so they don't lose any momentum.

I didn't realize any exit polls had been released yet. Where did you see these?

If you go to realclearpolitics.com and go to their SC Primary blog, they've released some exit poll info. Here's one nugget I found on there:

6:32PM - Some more exit poll nuggets from ABC News:

Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just over half are blacks this year; if that holds in final data later tonight, it would be the highest turnout among African-Americans in any Democratic presidential primary at least since 1984.

Turnout among women is high as well -- they account for six in 10 voters, similar to their 57 percent share in 2004 and higher than their 52 percent in the 1992 exit poll. (There were no South Carolina Democratic primaries in 1996 or 2000.)

Can't find it for some reason. Could you give a link to the blog, please?

Sure thing:

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/

They've got some of their exit poll links on there. Also a good page to follow the day of the Florida primary and Super Tuesday.

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