When is the Fifth Pick better than the Third?

[magnus23]

We will obviously lose the coin toss ... and we may lose the second .... why?

The Falcons curse.

However would it really be a curse?

I say maybe not.

If Dorsey and McFadden are already taken (and I prefer J.Stew anyway) it will be difficult to find value at the third pick.

The fifth pick would be better because:

1. Ellis becomes less of a reach.

2. Phillips becomes less of a reach.

3. We move up two spots in the second round (coin flip rules)

4. It will be easier to find a "trade down" partner.

We are not going to use a first round pick on a DE, and the draft is thick with Offensive Linemen and Running Backs.

The other positions of need are DT and Safety .... so Ellis or Phillips might only be a slight reach as fifth overall.

[magnus23]

grendel (1/26/2008)

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Ellis is not a reach. Eliis is above Dorsey on many boards now. You don't totally dominate the best college players at the Senior Bowl and not raise your draft stock.

I am aware his stock is rising ... even better .... he may be even money with a fifth ... I doubt he goes any higher.

[magnus23]

grendel (1/26/2008)

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Ellis is not a reach. Eliis is above Dorsey on many boards now. You don't totally dominate the best college players at the Senior Bowl and not raise your draft stock.

Oh and if you have a link to support that ... I would appreciate it.

[NCFalcon52]

I understand your points, but the #3 pick is better than #5.

1) There are only 2 players off the entire draft board, rather than 4.

2) You have more value to trade down with if you want to.

Eventhough in round 2 you are 2 spots further back, you are less likely that the player you want is taken in those 2 picks before you in the 2nd round rather than the 1st round.

Just some thoughts.

[magnus23]

NCFalcon52 (1/26/2008)

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I understand your points, but the #3 pick is better than #5.

1) There are only 2 players off the entire draft board, rather than 4.

2) You have more value to trade down with if you want to.

Eventhough in round 2 you are 2 spots further back, you are less likely that the player you want is taken in those 2 picks before you in the 2nd round rather than the 1st round.

Just some thoughts.

Obviously my contention sounds illogical on the face of it.

But delve down.

The only team with enough fire power to trade for a third (without selling the farm) is Dallas.

There are going to be a TON of players - some first round quality drop to the top of the second.

The last two drafts that happened and we ended trading up a few spaces for both Houston and Williams.

And why be forced to pay third round money for a player that is not third round quality.

We have so many holes to fill ... but DT and Safety is not a deep in this draft. There is really only one first round quality Safety and Dorsey and Ellis are way out ahead of the pack.

Dorsey will likely be gone by the third .... so we would be taking Ellis or maybe Phillips anyway.

We can snag quality RBs, OLs, and even QBs with the rest of our first day picks.

Would you want to possibly make Matt Ryan a third rounder?

I am telling you the Fifth might ... MIGHT... be better if McFadden and Dorsey are gone.

Better than the third .... but not the second.

[pzummo]

The other thing is about $5 mil in the contract. The #5 pick gets paid a lot less than the #3 pick. So if we still got our guy at #5 (Jake Long) then we are better off. If we don't get our guy, than we are not. I would rather have the 3rd pick and get Jake Long.

[NCFalcon52]

I would aggree that if you word your statement, "The Fifth pick might work out better for the Falcons." Rather than, "The 5th pick i sbetter than the 3rd." I agree we may still get the same player we want for less money. Eventhough the trade value chart is easier to trade with the 5th pick, you can still make the same trade with the 3rd pick and maybe you get 1 more pick later in the draft or a player, or a future pick. I just have to say, that if I had to choose I would rather be in the position of picking at the 3rd.

However, I do understand your points and they are valid if it were to work out the way you suggested.

[dashriprock]

when the 2nd is better than the 1st!:w00t:

[NCFalcon52]

Another Thought... What if Dorsey or McFadden are sitting there at 3? Would your statement that the 5th pick is better still be valid?

[magnus23]

pzummo (1/26/2008)

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The other thing is about $5 mil in the contract. The #5 pick gets paid a lot less than the #3 pick. So if we still got our guy at #5 (Jake Long) then we are better off. If we don't get our guy, than we are not. I would rather have the 3rd pick and get Jake Long.

I would be surprised that this GM takes Jake with a third or a fifth.

He was successful finding value for the Patriots at that position.

And again the draft is deep this year.

Personally I would love to have Jake for a fourth or fifth.

I just don't see them letting Ellis go ... with his stock rising as it is.

And I think Phillips enters the picture at the fifth spot.

[magnus23]

dashriprock (1/26/2008)

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when the 2nd is better than the 1st!:w00t:

When you are New Orleans.

[flrybranch]

you also save about $10 in CAP space.

I'm really O.K. ith #5

[magnus23]

NCFalcon52 (1/26/2008)

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I would aggree that if you word your statement, "The Fifth pick might work out better for the Falcons." Rather than, "The 5th pick i sbetter than the 3rd." I agree we may still get the same player we want for less money. Eventhough the trade value chart is easier to trade with the 5th pick, you can still make the same trade with the 3rd pick and maybe you get 1 more pick later in the draft or a player, or a future pick. I just have to say, that if I had to choose I would rather be in the position of picking at the 3rd.

However, I do understand your points and they are valid if it were to work out the way you suggested.

Fair enough ... either way it should be another great draft for the Falcons.

[magnus23]

NCFalcon52 (1/26/2008)

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Another Thought... What if Dorsey or McFadden are sitting there at 3? Would your statement that the 5th pick is better still be valid?

That is why I qualified my statement as I did.

If I thought we could get Dorsey at three ... I would prefer that.

McFadden ... really only to seduce Dallas ... who has shown some interest.

[jbresette]

I hope we get 4th so we make all of you guys happy haha :P

[magnus23]

jbresette (1/26/2008)

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I hope we get 4th so we make all of you guys happy haha :P

Actually ... that is what I am expecting.

[classic city falcon]

The 5 pick is better than the 3 if the guy you want is still there at 5 and you have to pay him less money. Sometimes that is true and sometimes it won't be, but this year we should be able to do very well any where in that range.

[magnus23]

classic city falcon (1/26/2008)

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The 5 pick is better than the 3 if the guy you want is still there at 5 and you have to pay him less money. Sometimes that is true and sometimes it won't be, but this year we should be able to do very well any where in that range.

If that man is Ellis ... he will be.

This year we get the bonus of moving up two spots in the top of the fertive second round.