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Warrick Dunn


boss hogg
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If you believe Dimitroff may take pages out of "Management Secrets of the New England Patriots", the following may indicate Dunn will stay with the Falcons but for less pay. Incedently, his base salary for 2008 is $3.25M.

From the book:

"The Patriots won two Super Bowls without a star running back. They got by with a combination of a Buffalo Bills castoff (Antowain Smith, who lacked the cutback agility required to elude tacklers and break long gains but proved adequate on first and second down and in short yardage situations because he seldom fumbled and had the power to crash into a defender for an extra yard or two) and a quick but undersized third-down back (Kevin Faulk, who is good at pass blocking and catching short passes out of the backfield but is not an every-down back)...

...The beauty of Smith and Faulk was not their play but their pay. The Patriots paid low salaries to two situational role players rather than a king's ransom for a "great" running back. Also unnoticed, the Patriots measured "production" comprehensively: not just as yards gained but also as pass protection, ability to hold onto the football, ability to catch the ball out of the backfield before Brady was sacked, etc..."

Having watched Kevin Faulk's performance last night, I could see Dunn being effective playing a similar role. Now that could mean Norwood becomes the featured back or the team could target a free agent RB or look to draft one.

If the Cowboys covet McFadden as many people think they do, they may look to move up in the draft by giving up their first round picks. Whether or not that would mean a trade with Atlanta, who knows. But that would probably mean they would look to unload either Marion Barber or Julius Jones. The most likely candidate would be Julius Jones. I think he could fit as a featured back with Dunn playing "Kevin Faulk". Also, former Georgia Bulldog Musa Smith is an unrestricted free agent. I think he would fit as well.

Comments?

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birdweiserrr (1/21/2008)
Norwood would be a good change of pace back and we need a big guy to carry the load and wear down the defense. This doesn't leave room for Dunn. I'm sorry it's like this (I love the guy) but he's just no longer effective.

I agree. I think people are more in love with Warrick Dunn the person instead of Warrick the player. He is not what he used to be and that salary is not going to work.

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Telecaster (1/21/2008)
Warrick Dunn is a great guy and a great professional. Having said that, his time with Atlanta needs to be up. If the Falcons are smart, they'll draft McFadden and have Norwood as their third down back, slot receiver, and return specialist.

Use Dunn's salary on an OL.

Agreed...Dunn has also gotten noticeably slower this year. he might be better if we get a better OL, but I think it is time for him to go..

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dyoshot (1/21/2008)
birdweiserrr (1/21/2008)
Norwood would be a good change of pace back and we need a big guy to carry the load and wear down the defense. This doesn't leave room for Dunn. I'm sorry it's like this (I love the guy) but he's just no longer effective.

I agree. I think people are more in love with Warrick Dunn the person instead of Warrick the player. He is not what he used to be and that salary is not going to work.

yea he is a great guy. he took a kid from my rec team to dinner and bought him christmas presents (the kid was in katrina) but the truth is warrick is less elusive and slower.

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I think $3.25M is too much to be paying Dunn at this point in his career as well. I guess my point here is that because Dunn is a guy who is quick, undersized, seldom fumbles, is good at pass blocking and catching short passes out of the backfield, he might make a good third-back a la Kevin Faulk. Not to mention being the consummate professional. He would probably be the kind of guy who would be willing to take a pay cut and reduced role.

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Along with his salary of $3,250,000, is his signing bonus allocation of $3,028,332, both of which will count against the cap. If he is cut, we are still charged the $3,028,332 against the cap, but would save his salary [he is signed only through 2008]. I don't know if this makes any difference in the cut/keep decision.

One of his assets is that he is pound for pound one of the best backfield blockers on our team. If you were the QB lining up for a pass play, you would rather have him in the backfield than Norwood.

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i think keepin/letting go Dunn will play a factor in our Draft, we hold a position where we can another RB, McFadden arguably the best player available, and plus this Draft is deep with RBs or since we also have Norwood, we could go O-Line (JAKE LONGGGG), and some wanted even Glenn Dorsey. The last thing we could do is trade down, which i doubt will happen...

hmm decisions decisions

but first we need a Head Coach

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Whoever our new HC is, this has to be called a rebuilding year and who knows what's gonna happen. If we get a powerback preffered type of HC who like bigger RB's it could be anybody at the RB position. It's really too early to speculate on those kinda things, aside from not knowing who the HC is gonna be, we don't know what kinda offensive schemes he is gonna prefer to run at RB.....

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Go to http://www.footballoutsiders.com and look at the running back stats.

The primary measurement they use is a statistic called Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average. The page has a detailed explanation of how they come up with the numbers if you care to know.

League Average Running back is 0.0%.

As a runner Warrick Dunn finished 2007 at -17.8% which is #54 out of the 56 running backs with 100 carries or more.

Jerious Norwood finished at +31.8%, which is #1 out of the 56 running backs with 100 carries or more.

As a receiver Norwood is at +24.2% (8th out of 58 running backs with 25 passes or more) and Dunn is at -27.7% (57th out of 58).

A replacement level running back, your basic street free agent that can be picked up off any practice squad (Artose Pinner, Jason Snelling), is -13.3%.

No level of community service or blitz pickup is worth that level of performance dropoff. Dunn is no longer a functional running back in the NFL. He was always overrated and now is worthless as a player. The decision to prioritize Dunn over Norwood probably cost this team at least a couple of wins. I say that as an FSU graduate who went to school and worked with many people who know Dunn.

The closest analogy to Norwood is the Eagles' Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is 5-10, 203 lbs. Norwood is 5-11, 202 lbs. Both oddly enough ran for 613 yards in their second season. The new coaching staff has got to recognize this and get Norwood more involved. He will never be a 400 carry running back but he needs way more touches than he gets.

Incidentally in the 13 Petrino games Dunn had 196 carries and Norwood had 75. In the three games with Emmitt Thomas as coach Dunn had 31 carries and Norwood had 28.

The clearest sign that the coaching staff could send the team that a true meritocracy was being established would be to CUT Dunn and Brooking (and benching Jamaal Anderson while we are at it). If Blank wants to love on Dunn he can give him a front office position for life working with the community but the dude is a black hole of suck on the football field.

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boss hogg (1/21/2008)
cwell1 (1/21/2008)
yeah except he would cut him.The Patriots don't hold on to guys just because of what they used to be.Ty Law,Willie McGinnest etc. GONE.Brooking and Dunn etc. need to go

Yeah but they went and got a guy like Junior Seau out of retirement.

Whatever the case is don't be suprised if there isn't a "GIANT" upset in the Superbowl.:P

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boss hogg (1/21/2008)
cwell1 (1/21/2008)
yeah except he would cut him.The Patriots don't hold on to guys just because of what they used to be.Ty Law,Willie McGinnest etc. GONE.Brooking and Dunn etc. need to go

Yeah but they went and got a guy like Junior Seau out of retirement.

This guy was exceptional in his youth and at this age he is above average. Dunn was never great IMO he was only above average and now he is average in play and below average in size. No can do.

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