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People who think the Draft is a Science


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People post on here that Jamaal A is a bust and we should have drafted this one or that one.

It is easy to look at things after and be critical.

My question is if the draft is such a science and you look at what a player does or doesn't do at a combine. How did Ryan Grant go undrafted? How did Brady go in the 6th round? How did our first Jamaal go in the 7th round. M.Colston was forth from last in 2006! An there are so many more who were miss early or didn't get drafted but made it good.

The draft is just what it is a crap shoot, roll the dice and hope for the best. Maybe now that we have a GM who should know talent we will do better. Who knows he still might roll the dice and miss it. Just my opinion but the truth speaks for it self.

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Of course you never know how a player will pan out. Doing proper research, grading him out against other players in the draft and utilizing a million different parameters to come to a final decision and then gauging that players worth based on draft position and his value at that pick is pretty in-depth.

There are no guarantees but there are smart decisions and there are bad decisions. Having the staff to put together the data and make finely tuned smart choices is all you can hope for. Most important is getting proper value with the proper pick.

Was Miami's decision to select a KR with their first pick last year one of due diligence or lack of preparedness? I'm sure they felt it was the right thing to do. Which is why their team is now going through an overhaul.

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dan minnich (1/15/2008)
i agree with this post and i wouldnt call anderson a bust just yet. i think jimmy williams is touching the bust label.

Jimmy is hard to call because a) he had to re-learn the position of FS this year, so he was basically a rookie again and B) Crocker played well and stayed healthy so we hardly saw him. Petrino didn't play him much because Williams couldn't contribute on special teams. I believe that the former staff was grooming Williams to take over this year. He certainly has all of the physical tools to be a good player.

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Jimmy is hard to call because a) he had to re-learn the position of FS this year, so he was basically a rookie again and B) Crocker played well and stayed healthy so we hardly saw him. Petrino didn't play him much because Williams couldn't contribute on special teams. I believe that the former staff was grooming Williams to take over this year. He certainly has all of the physical tools to be a good player.

I agree with that but Williams certainly has to be on the bubble at this point.

Anderson gets at least another full season before any bust label can be hung on his neck.

Then again, if this team moves to a 3-4 does he become a LB? If so I guess we would have to start the clock over.

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falcons4life (1/15/2008)
Jimmy is hard to call because a) he had to re-learn the position of FS this year, so he was basically a rookie again and B) Crocker played well and stayed healthy so we hardly saw him. Petrino didn't play him much because Williams couldn't contribute on special teams. I believe that the former staff was grooming Williams to take over this year. He certainly has all of the physical tools to be a good player.

I agree with that but Williams certainly has to be on the bubble at this point.

Anderson gets at least another full season before any bust label can be hung on his neck.

Then again, if this team moves to a 3-4 does he become a LB? If so I guess we would have to start the clock over.

Thing is that we drafted Anderson to be a project player. Fans are just impatient.

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You should take a look at this article done by ESPN. It's a study of the drafts from 1989 to 2003 where they go through pick by pick, position by position in each first round and break down the number of busts vs. the number of good players.

It's actually very interesting to see which positions have the highest frequency of busts (QB) and which had the least (S). Also, I find it interesting where they have drafts where something happens like, out of 5 offensive linemen chosen in the first round, the 2nd and 5th picked become all-pro while the 3rd picked becomes an average player and the 4th and 1st picked become busts. It really does show that the draft is still very much a crapshoot even in the first round.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...25&sportCat=nfl

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Thing is that we drafted Anderson to be a project player. Fans are just impatient.

Yes, the fans are impatient. I can understand their frustration but I dont agree with the whole "bust" label.

I have to question your project player comment. A project player in the first round and as high up as he was picked?

You take project players in the 4,5,6,7 rounds, not the first.

I can live with him just being a rookie who has more to learn and who will eventually blossom but project player makes him sound like a guy who will be soley on special teams for the next 5 years or a rotational backup.

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BlacksburgHokie (1/15/2008)
You should take a look at this article done by ESPN. It's a study of the drafts from 1989 to 2003 where they go through pick by pick, position by position in each first round and break down the number of busts vs. the number of good players.

It's actually very interesting to see which positions have the highest frequency of busts (QB) and which had the least (S). Also, I find it interesting where they have drafts where something happens like, out of 5 offensive linemen chosen in the first round, the 2nd and 5th picked become all-pro while the 3rd picked becomes an average player and the 4th and 1st picked become busts. It really does show that the draft is still very much a crapshoot even in the first round.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...25&sportCat=nfl

Great read thanks for the article.

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falcons4life (1/15/2008)
Thing is that we drafted Anderson to be a project player. Fans are just impatient.

Yes, the fans are impatient. I can understand their frustration but I dont agree with the whole "bust" label.

I have to question your project player comment. A project player in the first round and as high up as he was picked?

You take project players in the 4,5,6,7 rounds, not the first.

I can live with him just being a rookie who has more to learn and who will eventually blossom but project player makes him sound like a guy who will be soley on special teams for the next 5 years or a rotational backup.

I guess the only way that I could answer your question would be to say that Anderson was taken top-10 because he had just come off of a good season, he is very young, and a pheonominal physical specimen. The reason I say that he is a "project-player" was because he is still very raw and was recently converted from WR to DE. I think he is a case of a kid who has all of the talent in the world, and he could be a pro-bowl DE in a few years if given the proper coaching and some time. I hope that makes more sense to you. I guess in my reasoning there are different types of "project players", ones that are taken high who have tons of upside and physical tools, and guys who are great specimens but have not been proven at the colligete level.

To answer your question in a previous post, Jamaal Anderson would stay DE if we went to 3-4. Abraham would most likely move to OLB.

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hawkeyes (1/15/2008)
I dont see how Glenn Dorsey will be a bust unless he goes sky diving.

Do you remember the name Tony Mandarich (sp?). He was every bit as hyped as Dorsey, probably much more so. How about Robert Gallery? Anyone can be a bust, especially if they are a one trick pony. By that I mean if one player is great in college because he is just so much stronger than the people he faces then he's going to run into others in the NFL that are just as strong, but are also smart as well.

IMO the most "bust proof" player in the top 5 is Jake Long from Michigan. He's huge and has pretty good feet as well.

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Thing is that we drafted Anderson to be a project player. Fans are just impatient.

I agree and DL normally take a year or 2 to adjust to the speed and size of the NFL. That said I'd prefer no more projects in the first round,for a 4-12 team BPA is gonna be the best way to go.I could handle Jake Long at #5 but is there another OL to pick there if he is gone? I dont think so.

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Well, it is a science and also a gift , and TD has it , I know I have the gift also but I'll never get to use it for anything but fun , Let me tell you somthing , In the 2005 draft I didnt want ot put a high pick in a WR so I studied the WR class very hard and I know you will not believe me , but th guys who were here in the DRaft and FA can tell you , I had picked our 2 WRS I wanted us to draft , They were in this order ..........

1. Marquis Colstan

2. Brandon Marshell

Both of whom ended up being the best steals in the draft for WRs , Denver is very high on Marshell and they think he will be one of the best . And we all know that M Colstan was the biggest steal in the whole draf t no matter the position. Ripleys believe it or not , no matter to me . This Baptist Preacher don't lie .

Last Draft I wanted Landry 1st and if he was gone I wanted Amobi Okoye and had him in my Mock . And I wanted Fred Bennet CB that went to Houston as well , you would have thought I ws the Houston Scout. Fred turned out to be one of the biggest steals in the fourth round , I also wanted Antwan Barnes instead of Millner which I had this in my sig for months , And you say you've never heard of Barnes , well he's a MLB who had 2 sacks in one game and I had said that he would be a Sack Machine before the draft , he's a bowling Ball. Yo;ll hear about him in the years to come barring injury.

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