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Thru week#15 - Falcons have #4 pick overall


g-dawg
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Right now the Falcons are in a 3-way tie for the 2nd pick overall and have a 3-11 record - same as the Rams and Jets. Thank goodness somehow the Niners won this week and it looks like the highest there pick will now be is #5 (could be higher if Rams/Jets/Falcons win anymore). The tiebreaker is opponents winning percentage - right now its Rams#2, Jets#3, and Falcons#4

At this point, I think the Falcons are a good bet to "lose out" with a road game at Arizona and home game against the Seahawks - and yes, at this point - Falcons fan I am - I want the Falcons to lose;) - and so should you, its all about getting a franchise player in here for next year.

Remaining games:

Falcons - @ Arizona, vs. Seattle (#4 overall today)

Rams - vs. Pitt., @Ariz. (#2 overall today)

Jets - @Tenn., vs. KC (#3 overall today)

the only way the Falcons don't "lose out" is if the Seahawks have nothing to play for and sit all their starters at year-end. I doubt this happens.

The Rams will almost certainly lose the home game to Pittsburgh. Steelers have lost 2 straight but should "get well" vs. Rams. The Arizona game could go either way but I would lean towards Rams losing that game and locking up the #2 overall pick.

The Jets will have a legitimate shot tow win both of their remaining games. I think, more than likely they will lose a road game at Tennessee but I cannot see them losing the home game against the Chiefs unless they just totally quit.

Given the above, I see the Falcons most likely at #3 overall pick. I think there would be a 40% chance that Darren McFadden could drop to us - I don't think either Miami or St. Louis will take a RB given their RB depth - but more than likely somebody like the Dallas Cowboys will be pursuing a "trade up" scenario. The Cowboys figure to have two late 1st round picks (from Cleveland - projected #22 overall, and their own-projected #30 overall. That won't be enough to move into "top 2" picks - Cowboys will have to give up much more.

If I am the Atlanta Falcons - I would either:

A) Draft Darren McFadden at #3 overall (if available)

B) Trade down with someone like Dallas Cowboys - get Dallas' #22 pick, #30 pick, Marion Barber and a 3rd round pick. I would then package the #22 pick, one of my 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick (to move up to around pick#8) and select Matt Ryan, QB. We would still have late 1st rounder, 2nd rounder, two 3rd rounders(includes anticipated 3rd round comp. pick(for loss of Kerney). So, we would have our QB of future, our smash-mouth RB and 4 more first day picks to build offensive line and defensive line.

C) Draft Jake Long (if available).

I like "scenario B" the best but of course McFadden has to be available at our pick. That could be like our version of the Cowboys "Herschel Walker" trade. Of course it only works if McKay uses all the picks wisely. The Falcons need to parlay this draft into having their QB of the future, RB of the now and rebuild the offensive line - with my moves above - it could happen rather quickly if they drafted well and made a few solid O-Line moves in free agency - something McKay has been poor at.

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Remember it is the W/L % of opponents , That's what makes them Stronger or weaker . [Wink]

This will change every week until the last game is played , we could end up anywhere from the 2nd to the 10th pick , but like i said the other day , picking lower sometimes helps a team pick the right player .

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Draftnut57 (12/17/2007)
I think Miami will take McFadden , every team needs at least 2 good backs.

Miami won't take McFadden.....they need too much else and they have Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Jessie Chatman. I think Dolphins will do everything in there power to trade down. If they get stuck at #1 overall, they will take either Glenn Dorsey or Jake Long - probably Dorsey....

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I still think MIA will take a QB (Ryan) with the #1 overall pick. They took Beck in round 2, but if you are a bad franchise, you dont pass on a franchise QB unless the QB you have is REAL good. Long is too iffy to be a #1 overall pick, and Dorsey would have to check out 110% on his knees to be the pick.

Here's where I think the teams will end up picking (considering possible SOS)......

1. MIA (1-15) - Matt Ryan, QB (you dont pass on a franchise QB, unless you have a franchise QB. QB went #1 8 of the last 10 drafts.

2. STL (3-13) - Jake Long, OT (they could also consider Chris Long, or Dorsey to move Carriker back to DE)

3. ATL (3-13) - Darren McFadden, RB (BPA, position of need. Will make an immediate impact along with OL pickups in FA)

4. NE/SF (4-12) - Glenn Dorsey, DL (He is perfect to play in their hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense)

5. BAL (4-12) - Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB (BAL could use a top notch OLB, especially if Suggs goes)

6. NYJ (4-12) - Chris Long, DE (perfect fit for the 3-4 DE spot, where NY is weak. Value meets need here)

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1989fan (12/17/2007)
I still think MIA will take a QB (Ryan) with the #1 overall pick. They took Beck in round 2, but if you are a bad franchise, you dont pass on a franchise QB unless the QB you have is REAL good. Long is too iffy to be a #1 overall pick, and Dorsey would have to check out 110% on his knees to be the pick.

Here's where I think the teams will end up picking (considering possible SOS)......

1. MIA (1-15) - Matt Ryan, QB (you dont pass on a franchise QB, unless you have a franchise QB. QB went #1 8 of the last 10 drafts.

2. STL (3-13) - Jake Long, OT (they could also consider Chris Long, or Dorsey to move Carriker back to DE)

3. ATL (3-13) - Darren McFadden, RB (BPA, position of need. Will make an immediate impact along with OL pickups in FA)

4. NE/SF (4-12) - Glenn Dorsey, DL (He is perfect to play in their hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense)

5. BAL (4-12) - Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB (BAL could use a top notch OLB, especially if Suggs goes)

6. NYJ (4-12) - Chris Long, DE (perfect fit for the 3-4 DE spot, where NY is weak. Value meets need here)

The Dolphins will not be drafting a QB. The drafted Beck in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft.

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paul_k (12/17/2007)
1989fan (12/17/2007)
I still think MIA will take a QB (Ryan) with the #1 overall pick. They took Beck in round 2, but if you are a bad franchise, you dont pass on a franchise QB unless the QB you have is REAL good. Long is too iffy to be a #1 overall pick, and Dorsey would have to check out 110% on his knees to be the pick.

Here's where I think the teams will end up picking (considering possible SOS)......

1. MIA (1-15) - Matt Ryan, QB (you dont pass on a franchise QB, unless you have a franchise QB. QB went #1 8 of the last 10 drafts.

2. STL (3-13) - Jake Long, OT (they could also consider Chris Long, or Dorsey to move Carriker back to DE)

3. ATL (3-13) - Darren McFadden, RB (BPA, position of need. Will make an immediate impact along with OL pickups in FA)

4. NE/SF (4-12) - Glenn Dorsey, DL (He is perfect to play in their hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense)

5. BAL (4-12) - Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB (BAL could use a top notch OLB, especially if Suggs goes)

6. NYJ (4-12) - Chris Long, DE (perfect fit for the 3-4 DE spot, where NY is weak. Value meets need here)

The Dolphins will not be drafting a QB. The drafted Beck in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft.

Did he not just go over this? You don't usually pass up on a franchise QB unless you have a franchise QB. In our case, McFadden would be the better choice over Brohm and Woodson with that high of a pick. I still think we would be fine if we picked up on Flacco, Brennan, or Dixon in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

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1989fan (12/17/2007)
I still think MIA will take a QB (Ryan) with the #1 overall pick. They took Beck in round 2, but if you are a bad franchise, you dont pass on a franchise QB unless the QB you have is REAL good. Long is too iffy to be a #1 overall pick, and Dorsey would have to check out 110% on his knees to be the pick.

Here's where I think the teams will end up picking (considering possible SOS)......

1. MIA (1-15) - Matt Ryan, QB (you dont pass on a franchise QB, unless you have a franchise QB. QB went #1 8 of the last 10 drafts.

2. STL (3-13) - Jake Long, OT (they could also consider Chris Long, or Dorsey to move Carriker back to DE)

3. ATL (3-13) - Darren McFadden, RB (BPA, position of need. Will make an immediate impact along with OL pickups in FA)

4. NE/SF (4-12) - Glenn Dorsey, DL (He is perfect to play in their hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense)

5. BAL (4-12) - Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB (BAL could use a top notch OLB, especially if Suggs goes)

6. NYJ (4-12) - Chris Long, DE (perfect fit for the 3-4 DE spot, where NY is weak. Value meets need here)

I'd rather draft dorsey if we stay at that positon, or trade down for sure!!!

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Illini_Falcon59 (12/17/2007)
paul_k (12/17/2007)
1989fan (12/17/2007)
I still think MIA will take a QB (Ryan) with the #1 overall pick. They took Beck in round 2, but if you are a bad franchise, you dont pass on a franchise QB unless the QB you have is REAL good. Long is too iffy to be a #1 overall pick, and Dorsey would have to check out 110% on his knees to be the pick.

Here's where I think the teams will end up picking (considering possible SOS)......

1. MIA (1-15) - Matt Ryan, QB (you dont pass on a franchise QB, unless you have a franchise QB. QB went #1 8 of the last 10 drafts.

2. STL (3-13) - Jake Long, OT (they could also consider Chris Long, or Dorsey to move Carriker back to DE)

3. ATL (3-13) - Darren McFadden, RB (BPA, position of need. Will make an immediate impact along with OL pickups in FA)

4. NE/SF (4-12) - Glenn Dorsey, DL (He is perfect to play in their hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense)

5. BAL (4-12) - Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB (BAL could use a top notch OLB, especially if Suggs goes)

6. NYJ (4-12) - Chris Long, DE (perfect fit for the 3-4 DE spot, where NY is weak. Value meets need here)

The Dolphins will not be drafting a QB. The drafted Beck in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft.

Did he not just go over this? You don't usually pass up on a franchise QB unless you have a franchise QB. In our case, McFadden would be the better choice over Brohm and Woodson with that high of a pick. I still think we would be fine if we picked up on Flacco, Brennan, or Dixon in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

Well what do you consider a franchise QB? If the Dolphins spent a 2nd round pick on Beck, I think it's safe to say they see him as their franchise QB. I don't see how in the world they would use the 1st round on a QB in the 2008 draft. That would mean they completely wasted their 2nd round pick last year.

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paul_k (12/17/2007)
Illini_Falcon59 (12/17/2007)
paul_k (12/17/2007)
1989fan (12/17/2007)
I still think MIA will take a QB (Ryan) with the #1 overall pick. They took Beck in round 2, but if you are a bad franchise, you dont pass on a franchise QB unless the QB you have is REAL good. Long is too iffy to be a #1 overall pick, and Dorsey would have to check out 110% on his knees to be the pick.

Here's where I think the teams will end up picking (considering possible SOS)......

1. MIA (1-15) - Matt Ryan, QB (you dont pass on a franchise QB, unless you have a franchise QB. QB went #1 8 of the last 10 drafts.

2. STL (3-13) - Jake Long, OT (they could also consider Chris Long, or Dorsey to move Carriker back to DE)

3. ATL (3-13) - Darren McFadden, RB (BPA, position of need. Will make an immediate impact along with OL pickups in FA)

4. NE/SF (4-12) - Glenn Dorsey, DL (He is perfect to play in their hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense)

5. BAL (4-12) - Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB (BAL could use a top notch OLB, especially if Suggs goes)

6. NYJ (4-12) - Chris Long, DE (perfect fit for the 3-4 DE spot, where NY is weak. Value meets need here)

The Dolphins will not be drafting a QB. The drafted Beck in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft.

Did he not just go over this? You don't usually pass up on a franchise QB unless you have a franchise QB. In our case, McFadden would be the better choice over Brohm and Woodson with that high of a pick. I still think we would be fine if we picked up on Flacco, Brennan, or Dixon in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

Well what do you consider a franchise QB? If the Dolphins spent a 2nd round pick on Beck, I think it's safe to say they see him as their franchise QB. I don't see how in the world they would use the 1st round on a QB in the 2008 draft. That would mean they completely wasted their 2nd round pick last year.

I guess it would all depend on the coaches. If they think Beck could be their franchise QB then they would pass on Ryan. But considering their QB situation, and given Beck hasn't gotten much playing time despite the fact. I'd say the coaches don't think he is their franchise QB.

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If Blank is still running the show, we will draft McF. He is all about marketing.

If a football man is running the show, we will trade down (using McF as the bait). Barber and Dallas' two picks are reasonable compensation. We end up drafting an OL and DT in the first round.

If we can't trade down and a football man is at the helm, Dorsey is the choice.

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bgarcia28 (12/17/2007)

If Blank is still running the show, we will draft McF. He is all about marketing.

If a football man is running the show, we will trade down (using McF as the bait). Barber and Dallas' two picks are reasonable compensation. We end up drafting an OL and DT in the first round.

If we can't trade down and a football man is at the helm, Dorsey is the choice.

You're assuming that EITHER one those guys will still be there.

WE need the Jets/Rams to win a game.

Our best chance of the two is the Jets winning since they play the CHiefs on the last game of the season

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