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Just a few quick bits of information for you mock drafters


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For one, it kind of annoys me when you include "retirements" in your offseason format. This is not Madden. Include them in your cut list if you want them off the team.

Secondly, another thing I've noticed is that people seem to think we're going to get a compensatory pick for Justin Griffith. We almost definitely will not. We signed Ovie Mughelli to a MUCH bigger contract, actually almost 3x Griffith's contract I believe. They have started the same amount this season (all season) and Ovie is our replacement for Griffith, not a compensatory pick.

On the other hand, I would bet that we are almost definitely going to get some sort of compensatory pick for Patrick Kerney. This part I agree with in your mock drafts.

And also do not forget that we traded Allen Rossum for a late round (TBD) draft pick. At this point, I'd call it a 7th, but 6th is also possible.

Your picks should look like this: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd/4th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th/7th, 7th.

One last thing: there is no reason to believe the Cowboys are going to go after Darren McFadden. Julius Jones is signed through 2010 and Marion Barber is set to become a restricted free agent with the Cowboys getting the first crack at matching the offer. You can bet the farm that Jerry Jones is not going to let Barber leave his team. I would think trading up for Jake Long would make more sense for the Cowboys than for McFadden.

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"Secondly, another thing I've noticed is that people seem to think we're going to get a compensatory pick for Justin Griffith. We almost definitely will not. We signed Ovie Mughelli to a MUCH bigger contract, actually almost 3x Griffith's contract I believe. They have started the same amount this season (all season) and Ovie is our replacement for Griffith, not a compensatory pick."

The formula neutralizes player contracts against other player contracts. Mughelli's contract you mention is counteracted by the long forgotten Ashley Lelie's contract with SF. So, that's already been factored in to such discussions. Given that Justin Griffith is playing at a Pro Bowl level for Oakland, it's reasonable to presume we'll get a late (7th round, probably) compensatory pick for his loss.

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atlbrave (12/8/2007)
Since when was Julius Jones signed through 2010? His 4 year contract is up at the end of THIS season.

Sorry about that, you're right. All I read was this: 7/29/2004: Signed a six-year, $4.37 million contract. I didn't click details to see that the last 2 years were voided. Even still, Marion Barber is young and can carry a load. Either way, Flozell Adams is 32 and Jake Long would make a much better fit.

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Yea, Julius is an unrestricted free agent after this year. JJ will be gone at the end of the year for sure. Barber is restricted, and they will keep him. Dallas will make an effort to get McFadden, Jerry Jones has all but said so. And as for Jake Long, Jerry Jones is too smart to trade up for him. Almost every NFL scout believes he will play RT not LT. Dallas' offense would be scary with McFadden, no way they don't at least make an effort to get him.

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jidady (12/8/2007)
"Secondly, another thing I've noticed is that people seem to think we're going to get a compensatory pick for Justin Griffith. We almost definitely will not. We signed Ovie Mughelli to a MUCH bigger contract, actually almost 3x Griffith's contract I believe. They have started the same amount this season (all season) and Ovie is our replacement for Griffith, not a compensatory pick."

The formula neutralizes player contracts against other player contracts. Mughelli's contract you mention is counteracted by the long forgotten Ashley Lelie's contract with SF. So, that's already been factored in to such discussions. Given that Justin Griffith is playing at a Pro Bowl level for Oakland, it's reasonable to presume we'll get a late (7th round, probably) compensatory pick for his loss.

Doesn't the formula basically weigh free agents lost to free agents gained, with salary being one of the factors? I don't know how Lelie is doing, but I would guess not so well. With that said, why wouldn't Ovie cancel both of them out? His contract is more than double theirs combined. We also signed Joe Horn this past offseason to a $19 million contract, so I would think with the combination of Horn and Ovie it would cancel out the combination of Lelie and Griffith. I would think we wouldn't get a compensatory pick for Griffith since we signed Ovie and Horn to $18 and $19 million respectively, compared to Griffith and Lelie at (I think) $3 and $4 million respectively. The only player we lost that seems like we lost more than we gained is Kerney.

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Orange_Crush (12/8/2007)
jidady (12/8/2007)
"Secondly, another thing I've noticed is that people seem to think we're going to get a compensatory pick for Justin Griffith. We almost definitely will not. We signed Ovie Mughelli to a MUCH bigger contract, actually almost 3x Griffith's contract I believe. They have started the same amount this season (all season) and Ovie is our replacement for Griffith, not a compensatory pick."

The formula neutralizes player contracts against other player contracts. Mughelli's contract you mention is counteracted by the long forgotten Ashley Lelie's contract with SF. So, that's already been factored in to such discussions. Given that Justin Griffith is playing at a Pro Bowl level for Oakland, it's reasonable to presume we'll get a late (7th round, probably) compensatory pick for his loss.

Doesn't the formula basically weigh free agents lost to free agents gained, with salary being one of the factors? I don't know how Lelie is doing, but I would guess not so well. With that said, why wouldn't Ovie cancel both of them out? His contract is more than double theirs combined. We also signed Joe Horn this past offseason to a $19 million contract, so I would think with the combination of Horn and Ovie it would cancel out the combination of Lelie and Griffith. I would think we wouldn't get a compensatory pick for Griffith since we signed Ovie and Horn to $18 and $19 million respectively, compared to Griffith and Lelie at (I think) $3 and $4 million respectively. The only player we lost that seems like we lost more than we gained is Kerney.

Horn's salary doesn't count because he was cut. Players who are released do not count towards compensatory picks.

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Horn's salary doesn't count because he was cut. Players who are released do not count towards compensatory picks.

Oh, ok. So the much higher salary doesn't matter for Ovie compared to the other two? Does it just go on a head to head basis? Saying we gained Ovie, but lost Lelie, Griffith, and Kerney and Ovie only cancels out Lelie? And if so, why wouldn't Ovie cancel out Griffith instead of Lelie?

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Compensatory picks are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft.

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cjs206 (12/8/2007)
Compensatory picks are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft.

That last line is interesting , With us having a top 5 pick , If say 5 are left over we would certainly get one of those , I havn't thought of that one , we could use it for sure . Nice, and Thanks.

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"Oh, ok. So the much higher salary doesn't matter for Ovie compared to the other two? Does it just go on a head to head basis? Saying we gained Ovie, but lost Lelie, Griffith, and Kerney and Ovie only cancels out Lelie? And if so, why wouldn't Ovie cancel out Griffith instead of Lelie?"

It's contract to contract. Lelie's averages about $2.3 million a year while Griffith's is $2.75 million. No one outside of the Bay area has noticed, but Lelie is one of the worst free agents signings of this off-season. Meanwhile, Griffith is quietly one of the best. Of course, neither of these is a surprise to Falcons fans.

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Orange_Crush (12/8/2007)

Horn's salary doesn't count because he was cut. Players who are released do not count towards compensatory picks.

Oh, ok. So the much higher salary doesn't matter for Ovie compared to the other two? Does it just go on a head to head basis? Saying we gained Ovie, but lost Lelie, Griffith, and Kerney and Ovie only cancels out Lelie? And if so, why wouldn't Ovie cancel out Griffith instead of Lelie?

Even though salary is the primary factor in compensatory picks, neither Lelie or Mugheli have done anything statistically speaking. Those two will probably negate each other, while we will most likely see a 3/4 pick for Kerney, and a 6th for Griffith.

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Orange_Crush (12/8/2007)
jidady (12/8/2007)
"Secondly, another thing I've noticed is that people seem to think we're going to get a compensatory pick for Justin Griffith. We almost definitely will not. We signed Ovie Mughelli to a MUCH bigger contract, actually almost 3x Griffith's contract I believe. They have started the same amount this season (all season) and Ovie is our replacement for Griffith, not a compensatory pick."

The formula neutralizes player contracts against other player contracts. Mughelli's contract you mention is counteracted by the long forgotten Ashley Lelie's contract with SF. So, that's already been factored in to such discussions. Given that Justin Griffith is playing at a Pro Bowl level for Oakland, it's reasonable to presume we'll get a late (7th round, probably) compensatory pick for his loss.

Doesn't the formula basically weigh free agents lost to free agents gained, with salary being one of the factors? I don't know how Lelie is doing, but I would guess not so well. With that said, why wouldn't Ovie cancel both of them out? His contract is more than double theirs combined. We also signed Joe Horn this past offseason to a $19 million contract, so I would think with the combination of Horn and Ovie it would cancel out the combination of Lelie and Griffith. I would think we wouldn't get a compensatory pick for Griffith since we signed Ovie and Horn to $18 and $19 million respectively, compared to Griffith and Lelie at (I think) $3 and $4 million respectively. The only player we lost that seems like we lost more than we gained is Kerney.

joe horn was released by new orleans, so he was not an actual "free agent". if his contract had expired then it would come into play, however, he was cut because he wouldnt take a pay cut or wouldnt restructure his contract. because lelie got a contract almost equal to mughelli per season (i think...) they cancel eachother out, leaving us with griffith and kerney, who will get us a 7th and 4th, in my opinion. i havent been including the griffith comp pick though, because i havent thought of who id like in the 7th aside from brad cottam, so i havent bothered making a selection.

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