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trading up into the 1st round


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trading up into the 1st round

which scenario has the best chance?

i've seen a number of people suggest we draft an ot with our early 1st pick, then trade up into the late 1st and draft a qb. sounds greate, except i think that the odd of this actually working are very low. here's why.

let's say we're talking about moving our highest 2nd round pick up to the #25 pick in the 1st. that's a target i think we can hit by trading an another pick in this year's draft instead of trading away future picks (like a future 1st, something i don't want to do.) so the questiion is who can we get with a top 5 pick, and pick #25?

draft ot top 5, qb #25.

problem 1: not all 3 qbs (woodson, ryan, brohm) are going to be there at #25.:

chance 0 qb still available at #25 - 20%

chance 1 qb still available at #25 - 40%

chance 2 qb still available at #25 - 20%

chance 3 qb still available at #25 - 1%

problem 2: is the guy we want at qb the guy that is going to drop to #25? if a qb drops this far, it is likely the reasons other teams didn't draft him are the same reasons he wasn't our guy.

chance qb we have targeted drops to #25 - 20%.

the chance that we get any qb is only 40%, the chance that we get the qb we want (and aren't stuck with the ryan leaf of the group) are only 20%.

reverse the scenario though, qb early 1st & ot at #25. how do the odds look then? this year is looking shallow for to-10 ot talent, but deep mid to late 1st ot talent, so what are the changes we get a quality ot at #25?

chance of getting quality ot at #25 - 80%

chance of having a top 10 ot drop to #25 - 20%

both scenarios are hoping to have a top 10 talent drop to #25 (either a qb or ot.) the odds of that happening for either one is pretty low, about 20%. what are the odds though, of getting a quality player at both positions?

qb early, ot #25 - 80%

ot early, qb #25 - 20% (or 40% if you think all 3 qbs are interchangeable.)

the odds of drafting ot early and then trading back up for a qb are very low. you have to be prepared to not get a qb in this draft, or use a later pick on a developmental guy. if you think we need to improve the ot position now (and believe a top-10 quality ot is the only way to go), but believe the qb position can wait until the future, this is the scenario you want to go with.

if we go qb early, the odds that we can also pick up a quality ot also are pretty high. if you think we need to improve both the qb & ot positions (and get quality at both positions), this is the scenario you need to go with.

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