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updated draft status for the top 7 after 10 games...


jidady
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1) miami 0-10...barring something unforeseen, they're picking #1.

2) oakland 2-8...weird team is on a five game losing streak but has only lost by more than 7 points once in that period

3) san francisco 2-8...in a tailspin i don't see them recovering from

4) st. louis 2-8...two in a row is much more indicative of the st. louis team people had expected

5) ny jets 2-8...shocking win today could indicate a team ready to win some games

6) atlanta 3-7...today's game sucked.

7) cincinnati 3-7...no explanation for their continued failure

there are currently 6 teams tied at 4-6 and 5 teams tied at 5-5 plus buffalo and denver, both of whom will probably wind up in this area after their games. so, we've bungled into getting separation from the other mediocre teams while also getting closer to a very high pick in the draft. facing a likely loss on thursday night, we could be right back in the discussion for a top 3 pick.

in case you are wondering, oakland plays at kc. sf has a road game at arizona while st. louis has a home game against seattle. the jets play at dallas on thanksgiving.

ps: yes, if the draft were held tomorrow, ne would get the #3 overall selection.

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is there a website that updates the standings with accurate strength of schedules that you know of jidady? i usually have to go to a forum on tuesday to get my standings, but i dont like waiting that long to start my mock. laugh.gif

i hope we dont get into that discussion, i hope we can stay in the 6-10 range, because i like the value there much more. the top 5, outside of long, mcfadden and dorsey, is quite weak imo.

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is there a website that updates the standings with accurate strength of schedules that you know of jidady? i usually have to go to a forum on tuesday to get my standings, but i dont like waiting that long to start my mock. laugh.gif

i hope we dont get into that discussion, i hope we can stay in the 6-10 range, because i like the value there much more. the top 5, outside of long, mcfadden and dorsey, is quite weak imo.

gbnreport.com they update this every week

btw we are still at 7 and not 6 , cinn has a lower wl % they play, so we are the same as last week.

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gbnreport.com they update this every week

btw we are still at 7 and not 6 , cinn has a lower wl % they play, so we are the same as last week.

they're wrong.

atlanta has played minnesota (4-6), jacksonville (7-3), carolina (4-6), houston (5-5), tennessee (6-3), the giants (7-3), new orleans (4-6), san francisco (2-8), carolina (4-6), and tampa bay (6-4). that means our opponents have a composite record of 49-50 plus tennessee's game tomorrow night.

the bengals have played baltimore (4-6), cleveland (6-4), seattle (6-4), ne (10-0), kansas city (4-6), the jets (2-8), pittsburgh (7-3), buffalo (5-5), baltimore (4-6) and arizona (5-5). that means their opponents have a composite record of 53-47.

they have the tougher strength of schedule, so we would pick ahead of them in round one, which is pick #6.

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with that said, i will mock it. laugh.gif

miami - andre woodson, qb, kentucky (i know they have beck. but you dont get to pick #1 often, and when you are this bad you build with a franchise player. plus long is too risky to take #1 overall)

oakland - darren mcfadden, rb, arkansas (what better way to compliment russell than to take pressure off him with an explosive rb talent)

new england - chris long, de, virgina (the des are getting older, and i could see them parting ways with the oft-injured seymore or any of their des looking for a paycheck.)

st. louis - jake long, ot, michigan (he can play either tackle, and then move to their future lt after pace moves on.)

new york jets - derrick harvey, de/olb, florida (he is the best piece there for their 3-4. nyj have been having alot of trouble getting sacks this year.

atlanta - brian brohm, qb, louisville (not because of his college team, but because he is smart, poised, consistant, accurate and had on heck of a college career.)

cincinnati - glen dorsey, dt, lsu (i couldnt imagine him falling to 7, but 3-4 schemes and team needs can make it happen that way.)

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with that said, i will mock it. laugh.gif

miami - andre woodson, qb, kentucky (i know they have beck. but you dont get to pick #1 often, and when you are this bad you build with a franchise player. plus long is too risky to take #1 overall)

oakland - darren mcfadden, rb, arkansas (what better way to compliment russell than to take pressure off him with an explosive rb talent)

new england - chris long, de, virgina (the des are getting older, and i could see them parting ways with the oft-injured seymore or any of their des looking for a paycheck.)

st. louis - jake long, ot, michigan (he can play either tackle, and then move to their future lt after pace moves on.)

new york jets - derrick harvey, de/olb, florida (he is the best piece there for their 3-4. nyj have been having alot of trouble getting sacks this year.

atlanta - brian brohm, qb, louisville (not because of his college team, but because he is smart, poised, consistant, accurate and had on heck of a college career.)

cincinnati - glen dorsey, dt, lsu (i couldnt imagine him falling to 7, but 3-4 schemes and team needs can make it happen that way.)

i will bet you a dollar that ne trades down into the teens!

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with that said, i will mock it. laugh.gif

miami - andre woodson, qb, kentucky (i know they have beck. but you dont get to pick #1 often, and when you are this bad you build with a franchise player. plus long is too risky to take #1 overall)

oakland - darren mcfadden, rb, arkansas (what better way to compliment russell than to take pressure off him with an explosive rb talent)

new england - chris long, de, virgina (the des are getting older, and i could see them parting ways with the oft-injured seymore or any of their des looking for a paycheck.)

st. louis - jake long, ot, michigan (he can play either tackle, and then move to their future lt after pace moves on.)

new york jets - derrick harvey, de/olb, florida (he is the best piece there for their 3-4. nyj have been having alot of trouble getting sacks this year.

atlanta - brian brohm, qb, louisville (not because of his college team, but because he is smart, poised, consistant, accurate and had on heck of a college career.)

cincinnati - glen dorsey, dt, lsu (i couldnt imagine him falling to 7, but 3-4 schemes and team needs can make it happen that way.)

ok - i will "re-mock" your mock

1) miami - glenn dorsey, dt-lsu (how you had this guy going at #7 is beyond me - he's top two talent)

2) new england(via sf) - darren mcfadden, rb-arkansas (yes, moved ahead of oak-sf won't win another game! pats enjoy killing people on offense)

3) oakland - jake long, ot-michigan (of course gallery was a bust as highly touted ot from big 10, but raiders have to take the chance)

4) ny jets - chris long, de-virginia (perfect 3-4 de w/ non-stop motor for jets d)

5) atlanta - brian brohm, qb-louisville (is he a franchise qb? hope so! he will be the guy) by the way, i just looked at falcons schedule and i think we have excellent chance to move up to #3 overall - here it is:

week 11 - indianapolis - lose by 24 points

week 12 - @ st. louis - lose by 10 points (rams have won 2 straight and will score 20 pts - falcons won't score more than 10-13

week 13 - new orleans - lose by 10 points (again falcons won't have the offense to keep up w/ drew brees, colston and reggie bush)

week 14 - @ tampa bay - lose by 14 points (after this weeks shellacking at home!, don't think anybody will dispute this)

week 15 - @ arizona - lose by 6 points (if this game was at home, i think we could eek out a win, but falcons "mail it in" on the road)

week 16 - seattle - lose by 10 points (falcons could conceivably win this one if seahawks have division locked up which they probably will - falcons will probably win just to pizz us off and screw up their draft position

if we run the table and go 3-13, we will probably move up to #3 draft position, i cannot see niners or dolphins getting to 3 wins. somehow falcons will find a way to win at least one more game, just have no idea which one at this point. i think we will probably end up #4 overall but will hope for #3. i think falcons draft board should look like this:

1) darren mcfadden, rb

2) jake long, ot

3) brian brohm, qb

4) glenn dorsey, dt

5) matt ryan, qb

i think mcfadden, glenn dorsey and jake long will go #1, #2, & #3. falcons will definitely go "offense" with 1st pick in the draft - so, if mcfadden is gone it comes down to the offensive tackle or a qb - that will be a tough call - if petrino is sold on any of the qb's then you probably have to go that direction - if not, take the offensive tackle and hope that he's a "joe thomas" and not a "robert gallery"......

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pretty good mock smackie but i think mcfadden goes first period. and like i've been saing for over a month , brohm is by far our most likly pick , and not a bad one at all , i hope we do get him . we should just be glad we have a shot at him like we do , thangs seem t obe lining up well for us in the draft at least .

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ok - i will "re-mock" your mock

1) miami - glenn dorsey, dt-lsu (how you had this guy going at #7 is beyond me - he's top two talent)

i explained how i had dorsey going 7th. just because dorsey is the best player, doesnt mean he is the best fit. he wouldnt fit in ne or nyj as a dt. i dont see us taking a dt over a qb. and i dont see a dt going #1. hardly ever happens, the position just isnt valuable enough.

mia - like i said, they could use dorsey, but dts just dont go #1 usually.

oak - if dmc is here, i am willing to bet he goes to oak.

ne - dorsey doesnt fit the scheme.

stl - has 2 good rookie dts already, and they desperately could use a ot. many have long and dorsey as equal value as well.

nyj - dorsey doesnt fit the scheme again.

atl - best fit for him, but we need a qb or ot much more.

cin - scheme fit and value make him a steal here.

also, i used the order provided. it is always easier to mock when you can move the teams around to make it fit. i mocked purely to the current drft order. people mock trades too often in the top slots. they dont happen often this high, but people always mock them in for some reason.

not being a jerk with my post, just explaining how and why.

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i dont see us taking a dt over a qb.

fwiw, if dorsey is on our board and mcfadden is not, i'll be surprised if that's not the pick unless his knee hasn't checked out. i don't see us drafting brohm over dorsey. we'd be more likely to draft the freakish dt then try to trade back up for brohm.

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fwiw, if dorsey is on our board and mcfadden is not, i'll be surprised if that's not the pick unless his knee hasn't checked out. i don't see us drafting brohm over dorsey. we'd be more likely to draft the freakish dt then try to trade back up for brohm.

that scenerio would make sense as well. it would depend on how the drfat was going. if somehow 2 qbs go before us, or we get a strong feeling our guy will be gone, i think we take the qb.

i would love to take dorsey than trade back up for a qb, but it is a big risk if it doesnt work. if we had no plans to move back up though and dorsey and brohm were on the board, i think the team would take the qb.

if we could somehow secure a qb predraft, it would be nice as well.

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i explained how i had dorsey going 7th. just because dorsey is the best player, doesnt mean he is the best fit. he wouldnt fit in ne or nyj as a dt. i dont see us taking a dt over a qb. and i dont see a dt going #1. hardly ever happens, the position just isnt valuable enough.

mia - like i said, they could use dorsey, but dts just dont go #1 usually.

oak - if dmc is here, i am willing to bet he goes to oak.

ne - dorsey doesnt fit the scheme.

stl - has 2 good rookie dts already, and they desperately could use a ot. many have long and dorsey as equal value as well.

nyj - dorsey doesnt fit the scheme again.

atl - best fit for him, but we need a qb or ot much more.

cin - scheme fit and value make him a steal here.

also, i used the order provided. it is always easier to mock when you can move the teams around to make it fit. i mocked purely to the current drft order. people mock trades too often in the top slots. they dont happen often this high, but people always mock them in for some reason.

not being a jerk with my post, just explaining how and why.

atlanta may be the best fit for brohm, but brohm is not the best fit for the falcons.

i like brohm and think he'll be a good qb, but i worry about his injury history and the fact that he just doesn't perform well against better competition.

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fwiw, if dorsey is on our board and mcfadden is not, i'll be surprised if that's not the pick unless his knee hasn't checked out. i don't see us drafting brohm over dorsey. we'd be more likely to draft the freakish dt then try to trade back up for brohm.

if dorsey is still on the board then brohm will still be there to , so we wouldn't hae to trade back up. i do think we would draft brohm over dorsey simply bc of the position. yes , i would love to have dorsey if we didn't need a qb. everybody on here knows how much i love taking big time dts in the first i think that has been what i have puced for the last 3 or four years , but we didnt need a qb then . i'm also a realist and know how important a high quailty qb is .

lets see last year i wanted in 2007, amobi okoye dt , i wanted tommie harris 2004 , luis castillo 2005 , mark anderson & barry cofield 2006 . so don't think i dont want the guy.

and this was my fiial mock last year .........look at all the dl in the first three rounds , i love the dl they make our dbs look like probowlers , if i were a gm i promise i would have the best dl in the nfl bcause they can make a team great .

round 1 (8) - amobi okoye dt

round 2 (39) - tim crowder de

round 2 (44) - charles johnson de

round 3 (75) - tony hunt rb

round 4 (109) - kenny scott cb , fred bennet cb

round 4 (121) - zak deossie lb , antwan barnes lb

round 4 (133) - john wendling s

round 5 (149) - josh gattis s

round 6 (185) - jackie battle rb

round 7 (244) - melvin bullit s

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i do think we would draft brohm over dorsey simply bc of the position.

what i would expect is for us to do exactly what cleveland did. we would draft the player who we had graded higher, then we would attempt to move back up to secure the services of brohm. mckay is a bpa guy. unless we have brohm #2 overall on our board behind mcfadden, something i doubt, he's not going to reach for that guy over dorsey, the best dt prospect since tommie harris if not john henderson.

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what i would expect is for us to do exactly what cleveland did. we would draft the player who we had graded higher, then we would attempt to move back up to secure the services of brohm. mckay is a bpa guy. unless we have brohm #2 overall on our board behind mcfadden, something i doubt, he's not going to reach for that guy over dorsey, the best dt prospect since tommie harris if not john henderson.

i just got threw posting a reply that siad the same thing . but the only player i would go to that much trouble , picks and maony with would be mcfadden , if and a big if , he were there with our 1st pick ,i take him then trade ack up like clev and take my qbi nthe mid first round , we have the picks to do this with k, but i wouldn't give th price to do this for any other player , if this don't happen and probably wnat bc i think mcfadden will be the first overall pick then i would just take a qb with our 5 to 8 pick , and get ol with the 2nd and facy money .

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i just got threw posting a reply that siad the same thing . but the only player i would go to that much trouble , picks and maony with would be mcfadden , if and a big if , he were there with our 1st pick ,i take him then trade ack up like clev and take my qbi nthe mid first round , we have the picks to do this with k, but i wouldn't give th price to do this for any other player , if this don't happen and probably wnat bc i think mcfadden will be the first overall pick then i would just take a qb with our 5 to 8 pick , and get ol with the 2nd and facy money .

while we are wild arss speculating, how about this:

1) suck for rest of year, get up to #2 overall - draft mcfadden, rb

2) offer cleveland both 2nd round picks for derek anderson, qb (probably not enough but we could try)

3) sign a starting lt and og in free agency for $$$$$.

i like that a lot - not bloody likely that we will have #2 overall or that we could grab anderson in a trade - maybe #3 is most likely what we could do but it would be expensive......who's gonna be available on o-line in free agency? max starks for one....

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i explained how i had dorsey going 7th. just because dorsey is the best player, doesnt mean he is the best fit. he wouldnt fit in ne or nyj as a dt. i dont see us taking a dt over a qb. and i dont see a dt going #1. hardly ever happens, the position just isnt valuable enough.

mia - like i said, they could use dorsey, but dts just dont go #1 usually.

oak - if dmc is here, i am willing to bet he goes to oak.

ne - dorsey doesnt fit the scheme.

stl - has 2 good rookie dts already, and they desperately could use a ot. many have long and dorsey as equal value as well.

nyj - dorsey doesnt fit the scheme again.

atl - best fit for him, but we need a qb or ot much more.

cin - scheme fit and value make him a steal here.

also, i used the order provided. it is always easier to mock when you can move the teams around to make it fit. i mocked purely to the current drft order. people mock trades too often in the top slots. they dont happen often this high, but people always mock them in for some reason.

not being a jerk with my post, just explaining how and why.

i was commenting on jidady's mock - not yours 1989. but since you brought it up, derrick harvey in the top 8? not a chance.... wink.gif

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i was commenting on jidady's mock - not yours 1989. but since you brought it up, derrick harvey in the top 8? not a chance.... wink.gif

oops, my bad.

ithink harvey can go top 10. once he works out teams will be all over him. he would make a fine 3-4 olb, or a speed de in a 4-3. mark my words, just in case i am wrong. wink.gif

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with that said, i will mock it. laugh.gif

miami - andre woodson, qb, kentucky (i know they have beck. but you dont get to pick #1 often, and when you are this bad you build with a franchise player. plus long is too risky to take #1 overall)

oakland - darren mcfadden, rb, arkansas (what better way to compliment russell than to take pressure off him with an explosive rb talent)

new england - chris long, de, virgina (the des are getting older, and i could see them parting ways with the oft-injured seymore or any of their des looking for a paycheck.)

st. louis - jake long, ot, michigan (he can play either tackle, and then move to their future lt after pace moves on.)

new york jets - derrick harvey, de/olb, florida (he is the best piece there for their 3-4. nyj have been having alot of trouble getting sacks this year.

atlanta - brian brohm, qb, louisville (not because of his college team, but because he is smart, poised, consistant, accurate and had on heck of a college career.)

cincinnati - glen dorsey, dt, lsu (i couldnt imagine him falling to 7, but 3-4 schemes and team needs can make it happen that way.)

im sorry, but if glen dorsey falls to 7 and we are one of the teams that passes on him i will be nothing short of furious. glen dorsey might be the best senior in this draft class, and if he falls to #6 and we take brohm, as much as i might like him, i will be very frustrated, particularly because of colemans injury problems and our overall need for depth at dt, now and in the future.

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what i would expect is for us to do exactly what cleveland did. we would draft the player who we had graded higher, then we would attempt to move back up to secure the services of brohm. mckay is a bpa guy. unless we have brohm #2 overall on our board behind mcfadden, something i doubt, he's not going to reach for that guy over dorsey, the best dt prospect since tommie harris if not john henderson.

thats what i had us doing in my last mock, and the more i think about it the more the idea appeals to me, whether it is dorsey or oher in the 1st round and brohm later in the 1st.

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i would let the qbs fall, as they always seem to do. if harrell declares, then harrell, woodson and brohm may be the first 3 qbs off the board, and in that order.

i'd pick mcfadden, dorsey or long with our first pick. we should be able to get one of them if we end up in the top 5.

then i probably wouldn't even trade back up into the 1st round. if harrell declares, i still don't see more than 3 qbs going in round 1. even if they do, there's still brennan, tebow, and ainge available, and i bet we could get one of them with our second pick in the second round. you've still got ryan also as well as two or three other juniors who could potentially declare. i've been watching qbs all year and the talent level seems pretty deep and consistent across the first 10. obviously there's some drop off along the way, but it's difficult to tell who of the top 5 qbs are going to stand out when the draft rolls around. you can bet brohm will just because he's beginning to become overrated based on what louisville did last year.

if we could go rb/ot/og/dt (in no particular order) with our first two picks at least, we could still land a complete upgrade at qb with our 3rd round selection, possibly even the 4th, although qbs might tend to come off the board a little quicker in the 4th round.

celtik

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here's how i mocked the first 7 picks.

1st- miami- glen dorsey, dt, lsu- he is the best senior in this draft as far as i m concerned. jake long is a possibility, but because of the concerns surrounding him because of his trouble handling speed rushers (thus hindering him as a lt prospect in the nfl ranks) the dolphins would look to add much needed youth and talent to their defensive line. dorsey would help stabilize their run defense and also provide a pass rush from the interior that they sorely lack this season.

2nd- oakland- jake long, ot, michigan- long is the best ot prospect in the draft, but he might have to move to rt in the nfl. that said, russell needs help along the offensive front, and because their rushing attack has been fairly proficient this year, against all odds, mcfadden does not make much sense here unless they want to bring him in to sell tickets. in reality, adding a beast rt (at minimum) would help protect russell in the future and help make their running game even more productive.

3rd- new england (f/ sf)- chris long, de, virginia- this is an easy pick also. their 3-4 de s are getting a little old, and some will need to be resigned in the near future, and the patriots are well renowned for being cost efficient, and adding the best de prospect in the draft to help add youth to a position that could use it, while also saving themselves money in free agency, is just a typical patriots move.

4th- st. louis- calais campbell, de, miami- the rams have 2 good dt s in carriker and ryan, so there is no need to draft dorsey (even if he was available here). however, leonard little is getting older, and they have nothing special aside from him at de. campbell would give them a legitimate pass rush threat from the le spot, and would help their secondary by getting more heat on the passer consistently.

5th- jets- darren mcfadden, rb, arkansas- it is certainly possible that he is gone by this point, perhaps someone trading up to #3 with ne or maybe oakland lets al davis get carried away by mcfadden s measurables and stats and he gets drafted by oakland. however, in this scenario, mcfadden is available and i don t think jets fans would be complaining. they get their rb of the future and at a pretty good value too.

6th- falcons- michael oher, ot, ole miss- this kid is a beast and, in my opinion, is the best lt prospect in the draft should he declare. he is strong and powerful in the running game and gets out of his stance very quickly and has good footwork, and handles all kinds of rushers, whether it is a speed rush or a bull rush, with relative ease. he is somewhat raw, and could use a year of seasoning before he starts, but should have the opportunity to compete for the lt spot with renardo foster, if not todd weiner or tyson clabo. if we can retain those 3 guys along with oher, we will have enough depth and competition to fill lt and rt adequately until oher and possibly another draft pick develop and adjust enough to be named the starter, and that is a day i would look forward to from the second this pick was made.

7th- bengals- kenny phillips, s, miami- lauranaitis is a definite option at this selection, given the bengals injury problems (6 linebackers injured i think it is? that i just ridiculous!). however, their secondary is quite a mess, especially the saftey positions. phillips would help add some stability to a secondary and a defense that gives up far too many big plays, and if he can help limit those, the defense and the team would take some steps in the right direction again.

i cant wait for the rest of the selection order to be finalized, i love doing one of these a week! tongue.gif thanks for providing the list jidady. smile.gif

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here's how i mocked the first 7 picks.

1st- miami- glen dorsey, dt, lsu- he is the best senior in this draft as far as i m concerned. jake long is a possibility, but because of the concerns surrounding him because of his trouble handling speed rushers (thus hindering him as a lt prospect in the nfl ranks) the dolphins would look to add much needed youth and talent to their defensive line. dorsey would help stabilize their run defense and also provide a pass rush from the interior that they sorely lack this season.

i think he is the safest pick for mia as well, but dts just dont go #1. one has in the past 10-25 years probably. there isnt enough value in the position. qb is the #1 pick well over 50% of the time recently with a few sprinkles of rb, wr, de, ot mixed in there.

i think dorsey is the 2nd best talent, but he wont go #1. i think miami would take dmc before dorsey. i think right now their board has to be long, dmc and their top rated qb. i dont care if they have beck. unless they are 100% in love with the guy they wont pass on one of the franchise qbs for his sake.

our need for a qb is the same reason i said we could take brohm over him if he is there. sure we are hurting at dt, but we are losing because of qbs. i would be more comfortable with babs and lewis as my future dts than harrington or leftwich as my qb. if we dont take a qb first, be ready for us to trade back into the teens to get one. we will likely lose both 2nds or 2nd and 3rd and a 2nd next year. we will have to give up decent points value to trade into the teens. it will be costly. cle gave a first to trade from early 2nd up to 22. we would have to do the same.

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