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mid point mock draft.


Robb4242
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ok, it’s the midway point of the season & time to update my mock. when doing this i’m basing draft position based on current standing. the falcons have the 3rd pick (alternating with the jets in each round) and houston will have pick 11 in round 2. i am also including my estimated comp picks. i’m leaving picks for kerney in the 4th & griffith in the 7th, but i think lelie is borderline right now with 1 start & only 5 catches, so i’m not going to include a pick for him.

i’m also not going to include any trades, they are way too hard to predict. i do think that hall & crumpler are 2 very likely trade candidates. i don’t think we’ll get a 1st round pick for either. my guess would be a 2nd & 3rd plus a future pick for hall that is based on performance. for crump, my guess would be a 4th & a player.

other players i expect to not see in a falcons uniform next year are dunn, gandy, forney, horn, finneran, coleman, d-mo, & milloy. we are headed towards a major youth movement this offseason i do believe.

we will of course sign some free agents. i don’t have a full list of guys to look at, but i do know some and will try to project a few that we might try to sign, based on the losses i’ve projected. we usually don’t get that involved in fa, but if we were to get cap relief (which i don’t count on), that could change this year and we could go after a haynesworth, samuel, dansby or faneca.

rex grossman – because i think cleveland is going to want too much for anderson, rex might be the #2 qb in fa. i think we’ll also keep leftwich around as well. i know this won't sit well with many people (it doesn't really with me either), but as a temporary qb, a young guy who has led a team to a superbowl within the last 2 seasons isn't that terrible.

max starks – he’s got the size that we are trying to put on our ol. he’s a solid player, but lost his spot in pittsburgh for several reasons. a change of scenery could be good for him. we could play him either at rt or maybe move him inside to rg.

bryant johnson – not a flashy #1 wr, but a solid compliment to white & robinson.

drayton florence – with d hall seemingly gone, we’ll need an nfl starting experienced cb. florence has been san diego’s starter, but with antonio cromartie ready to take over, florence should be looking for somewhere else to play. barring a hall for samuels deal, this could be our guy.

for the draft, i think it’s a very, very strong possibility that we draft a qb in round 1, but i want to do something that’s a little against the grain. i had jake long as our #1 pick in my preseason mock, but from what i’ve read it looks more like long will project to a rt and imo, i don’t want that with the #3 pick in the draft. so i’ll go a different way there, especially since i put starks as one of our fa signings.

draft:

1. miami – andre woodson, qb, kentucky

2. st. louis – chris long, de, virginia

3. atlanta – glen dorsey, dt, lsu – this is a replacement for coleman. dorsey has the ability to become a dominant nt. we’ve started the youth movement by releasing grady & replacing him with lewis. if lewis plays well the rest of the year, then dorsey could be the pick here.

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2a. barry richardson, ot, clemson – no change here for me. i think barry can come in and could start right away at lt on our ol. he is athletic enough to play the lt position, but he will struggle his first year at times there if he does start right away. with gandy most likely retired, it could be a battle between richardson & foster for the lt spot, with richardson definitely being the future there.

2b. roy schuening, ot/og, oregon st. – this is the 2nd straight ol pick & another that could be an immediate starter. i see schuening (6-4, 317 lbs) taking over for forney at rg. schuening is not an overly athletic player, but he is strong and a relentless drive blocker that should fit in very well with our new blocking scheme.

3. philip wheeler, ilb, gt – do we go back to gt to get our replacement to 11 year, gt vet keith brooking? we could do worse, that’s for sure. wheeler has the talent to go in the 2nd round, but he could slip to here (3rd pick of the 3rd round) due to his size (listed at 6’1 5/8th, 230 lbs). wheeler, like brooking is a guy who could play either olb or ilb, but i think he may be a better fit at ilb because he doesn’t really have the cover skills to play at olb in the nfl at this point.

4a. titus brown, de, miss. st. – titus is a guy who is moving up draftboards. he may be a day 1 pick by the end of the year. he’s a leader solid pass rusher with 13 sacks so far since 2006. brown will be solid depth for a season or 2 and then be ready to replace john abraham when his time here is through.

4b. matt flynn, qb, lsu – our qb of the future is drafted here, and not in round 1. flynn is a leader, he’s got a strong enough arm, poise, and he’s underrated enough to drop this far. flynn only really had 1 season to show what he could do & he’s played very well. he might move up, but i have him here because he will measure out just a little small (6’1” 5/8ths is what he’s listed at, but he’ll be shorter) and because of the lack of starts. this could end up being a steal.

5. jerome felton, rb/fb, furman – this guy is a touchdown machine, with 51 td’s in his first 3 seasons. i think he would be a great fit here on our roster. i have him listed as a rb/fb because i see him as #2 on the depth chart at both positions. felton has great hands out of the backfield, and unlike ovie, he can run with the ball. he will become our thunder to the norwood’s lightning as our short yardage/goal line back.

6a. darien williams, fs, oklahoma – a decent fs who could eventually compete to replace crocker if j-will doesn’t pan out. williams is probably worthy of a 4th/5th round pick but will slip some due to a foot injury that forced him to miss the 1st half of the season.

6b. alexis serna, k, oregon st. – this guy may have the strongest leg in the draft. serna 4-6 from 50+ with a long of 58 for his career. alexis was the 2005 lou groza award winner.

7a. mikey henderson, wr, georgia – henderson will probably never see the field as a receiver, but he is an very good return man with excellent speed (4.36).

7b. tim silver, og/ot, richmond – a big ot (6’6”, 320 lbs) that could possibly move inside to og. could develop into a decent backup lineman who could play multiple positions.

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haha... mikey henderson would be awesome! i love that kid! laugh.gif

yeah, he'd probably never see the field as a receiver unless a bunch of freak injuries happened... but he's awesome. laugh.gif

on the real though, i think sean bailey will be someone to watch in the nfl. he doesn't scream elite receiver or anything, but he's just a solid all around player.

anyways.... this draft looks..... different. i don't think the falcons wait until the 4th to take matt flynn. if we take a qb in the draft this year and it's not in the 1st, then it will definitely be in the 2nd... in my opinion, of course.

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i don't want anything to do with rex grossman. rex did the best he could to sabotage the bears and they still made it to the super bowl. the bears' d was unbelievable last year.

i was real high on max starks as a potential free agent until he was benched and replaced at rt. i would still like to bring him in as a rt or rg for the right price.

as for the draft, i love the dorsey pick. he'll be a great one for years to come.

i think that the second round might be too high for richardson since most analysts say he has bad footwork. analysts project him anywhere from 3-6.

i love the wheeler pick. he is a fast and explosive player. what about moving boley to mlb?

i'm not sold on matt flynn just yet. haven't seen enough of him to have anything constructive to say.

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a couple of points & questions:

1) my projections have us only getting a 4th (maybe) for kerney. doesn't the signing of mughelli cancel out any compensation we would get for griffith?

2) i too am also advocating acquring drayton florence. he's from waycross and he's a good option as a #2 cb. he plugs in the hole left by...

3) our current #1 cb, i want him gone as well, but i'd be very suprised if we did not land a 1st rounder for him...hall does not turn 24 until november so we're talking about a young, albeit volatile player whose physical talents can't be denied. i suspect that pick will be in the #18-26 range, but it will be a team that feels it is a player or two away from really making a sb run.

4) i agree with all of your suggestions on which veterans will be jettisoned with the exception of forney. unless we spend another high pick on an og - while forney is not playing at a level close to 2004-2005 levels, he's not a problem in the locker room and should be counted on for one more year.

we are thinking alike on a lot of things:

- 2 first day picks on o-line (ot specifically)

- drafting brooking's replacement

- a good kicker prospect

- matt flynn

where i disagree:

- i'd rather we wait to tie up money in fa. hold off on spending the money and wait for young talent to emerge (or to not do so). the fill in gaps after accumulating cap space. florence would be my only fa acquisition.

- i know you mentioned that a qb is more than likely in round 1. i agree. i'm sold on brohm. that said, if we could get flynn in round 5, why not.

- your plan leaves us with only norwood at rb. very dangerous.

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as already pointed out, your two biggest flaws are at rex grossman (i would much rather just keep joey harrington, which is sad enough) and at the lack of an additional rb to complement norwood.

with that being said, i think it is a solid draft. i would rather have tony hills than barry richardson in the 2nd, but whoever we feel will pan out better works for me.

as for the matt flynn pick....... i actually like it, as long as it is in the 4th round or later. he has really surprised me with his athleticism (he can really move around in the pocket, or pick up the 1st down on his feet). the problem that i have, is that he isn't even the best qb on his team. what i would do for perriloux in this draft....... that dude is a stud.

good mock, people need to realize that we won't solve all of our problems in one draft, but this draft is extremely important, nonetheless.

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matt flynn, future nfl qb? not just any future qb, but a future starter?

i'm not sure what team in the nfl would really hang their hopes on drafting a guy in the 4th round to be their starting qb. particularly one that will have less than 15 starts in college and has barely been passable in those games. he has more games under 60% than he has game over 60% completions. matt flynn is probably an udfa. there's nothing about flynn that would suggested he'd get drafted as a qb.

miami doesn't use the #1 overall pick on another qb after using their #2 on one last year.

st. louis looks to repair the offensive line first and foremost, jake long.

atlanta has their choice of woodson, mcfadden or dorsey. petrino's not going defense, particularly considering how the defense is far from the problem in atlanta.

i do like the remainder of your picks, however, i think the falcons will pick up a guard in fa and use their second 2nd round pick on a mlb or rb.

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as already pointed out, your two biggest flaws are at rex grossman (i would much rather just keep joey harrington, which is sad enough) and at the lack of an additional rb to complement norwood.

with that being said, i think it is a solid draft. i would rather have tony hills than barry richardson in the 2nd, but whoever we feel will pan out better works for me.

as for the matt flynn pick....... i actually like it, as long as it is in the 4th round or later. he has really surprised me with his athleticism (he can really move around in the pocket, or pick up the 1st down on his feet). the problem that i have, is that he isn't even the best qb on his team. what i would do for perriloux in this draft....... that dude is a stud.

good mock, people need to realize that we won't solve all of our problems in one draft, but this draft is extremely important, nonetheless.

good points i will agree

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i don't want anything to do with rex grossman. rex did the best he could to sabotage the bears and they still made it to the super bowl. the bears' d was unbelievable last year.

i was real high on max starks as a potential free agent until he was benched and replaced at rt. i would still like to bring him in as a rt or rg for the right price.

as for the draft, i love the dorsey pick. he'll be a great one for years to come.

i think that the second round might be too high for richardson since most analysts say he has bad footwork. analysts project him anywhere from 3-6.

i love the wheeler pick. he is a fast and explosive player. what about moving boley to mlb?

i'm not sold on matt flynn just yet. haven't seen enough of him to have anything constructive to say.

trust me, i don't want rex anymore than anyone else does. but given the list of free agent qb's, who would you bring in? at the very least, rex does have playoff & superbowl experience. here is the list of fa qb's that i had. it doesn't have derek anderson in it, but like i said in the mock, the price on him is probably going to be too high. cleveland will likely match any offers for him & will want a 1st round pick or 1st round value at least in trade for him.

rex grossman, ufa, chicago bears

josh mccown, ufa, oakland raiders

ken dorsey ufa cleveland browns

ryan fitzpatrick rfa cincinnati bengals

drew henson ufa minnesota vikings

cleo lemon ufa miami dolphins

jared lorenzen ufa new york giants

jamie martin ufa new orleans saints

jim sorgi ufa indianapolis colts

as for richardson, i've seen him all over the place, from round 1 to round 5. he's got the physical ability, but like you said not great footwork. where he goes all depends on how teams feel like he is coachable and able to correct his problems, that probably won't be decided until the senior bowl.

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a couple of points & questions:

1) my projections have us only getting a 4th (maybe) for kerney. doesn't the signing of mughelli cancel out any compensation we would get for griffith?

2) i too am also advocating acquring drayton florence. he's from waycross and he's a good option as a #2 cb. he plugs in the hole left by...

3) our current #1 cb, i want him gone as well, but i'd be very suprised if we did not land a 1st rounder for him...hall does not turn 24 until november so we're talking about a young, albeit volatile player whose physical talents can't be denied. i suspect that pick will be in the #18-26 range, but it will be a team that feels it is a player or two away from really making a sb run.

4) i agree with all of your suggestions on which veterans will be jettisoned with the exception of forney. unless we spend another high pick on an og - while forney is not playing at a level close to 2004-2005 levels, he's not a problem in the locker room and should be counted on for one more year.

we are thinking alike on a lot of things:

- 2 first day picks on o-line (ot specifically)

- drafting brooking's replacement

- a good kicker prospect

- matt flynn

where i disagree:

- i'd rather we wait to tie up money in fa. hold off on spending the money and wait for young talent to emerge (or to not do so). the fill in gaps after accumulating cap space. florence would be my only fa acquisition.

- i know you mentioned that a qb is more than likely in round 1. i agree. i'm sold on brohm. that said, if we could get flynn in round 5, why not.

- your plan leaves us with only norwood at rb. very dangerous.

it's very possible the mughelli signing will cancel out griffith. the formula is net loss - net gain and they use salary, playing time, and some other factors in there. but it's not a position by position thing. griffith has more starts, more carries, more receptions, and more touchdowns (albeit not by much) than mughelli does, but mulghelli has the higher contract. i think both us & the ravens will get picks for those players with the ravens getting a 6th based on the contract size.

for f/a's and cap space, we should have enough without recouping money from one former player to sign those 4 guys. i agree with letting the young talent emerge, but there are also holes to fill that we can't completely fill in the draft. so that is where those 4 signings come in, and they are all young players, not older vets.

and i don't think this draft leaves us with only norwood, it just gives norwood the opportunity to prove he's an everydown back. i really believe that felton is going to make a team & consistently put up 5 or 6 td's a year as a goal line back. he's a solid blocker, and a decent runner, but you are right, if norwood went down for the year with an injury, we'd be in some trouble. we do still have jason snellings on the practice squad & he could be norwood's replacement if we were to lose him for a season though. our 4 backs could be norwood/snelling/mughelli/felton with norwood being the starter & felton the short yardage back. and then in 2009 we could draft a back if it turns out norwood couldn't handle the load.

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rex grossman because i think cleveland is going to want too much for anderson, rex might be the #2 qb in fa. i think we ll also keep leftwich around as well. i know this won't sit well with many people (it doesn't really with me either), but as a temporary qb, a young guy who has led a team to a superbowl within the last 2 seasons isn't that terrible.

what!!!

can you imagine what that would do to ticket sales?

getting our qb situation settled for the long term is not just a good move for the team, it is important to rekindle fan interest in the team. bringing in grossman would ensure ticket sales went down.

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trust me, i don't want rex anymore than anyone else does. but given the list of free agent qb's, who would you bring in? at the very least, rex does have playoff & superbowl experience. here is the list of fa qb's that i had. it doesn't have derek anderson in it, but like i said in the mock, the price on him is probably going to be too high. cleveland will likely match any offers for him & will want a 1st round pick or 1st round value at least in trade for him.

rex grossman, ufa, chicago bears

josh mccown, ufa, oakland raiders

ken dorsey ufa cleveland browns

ryan fitzpatrick rfa cincinnati bengals

drew henson ufa minnesota vikings

cleo lemon ufa miami dolphins

jared lorenzen ufa new york giants

jamie martin ufa new orleans saints

jim sorgi ufa indianapolis colts

as for richardson, i've seen him all over the place, from round 1 to round 5. he's got the physical ability, but like you said not great footwork. where he goes all depends on how teams feel like he is coachable and able to correct his problems, that probably won't be decided until the senior bowl.

andrew walter may be released by the raiders and it won't cost us much to bring him in. i know that petrino and co. were high on him before the season started.

i wouldn't mind lefty as our starting quarterback next season. lefty played well before he was injured in the new orleans game.

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andrew walter may be released by the raiders and it won't cost us much to bring him in. i know that petrino and co. were high on him before the season started.

i wouldn't mind lefty as our starting quarterback next season. lefty played well before he was injured in the new orleans game.

jp losman may be released as well by the bills, but i was trying to count on who we knew would be a fa. i would prefer walter or losman over grossman.

while i admire leftwich's heart & determination, i don't really care for him as our qb. if we didn't sign a fa qb & went with him for another season, i could live with that though as long as there is another vet in place to back him up when he goes down to injury. i'm not at all in favor of playing a rookie qb, especially early in his rookie season.

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what!!!

can you imagine what that would do to ticket sales?

getting our qb situation settled for the long term is not just a good move for the team, it is important to rekindle fan interest in the team. bringing in grossman would ensure ticket sales went down.

from the players that are out there, both in fa or the draft, the only thing that is going to excite the fanbase is wins. there are no "omg i've got to go see this qb play" type qb's that are going to be out there this offseason imo. and like i said in the last post, if it's one of the rookie qb's from the draft, imo, don't play them in year 1. the vast majority of qb's who become the #1 qb at the beginning or very early in their rookie season tend to fail. there are a few exceptions, but if we draft that "exciting qb" who will drive up ticket sales he shouldn't be starting, so why buy tickets for the 2008 season if that's why you are buying. if we hold off on a qb this year & draft a stafford or tebow in 2009 (if they come out), i think that would stir the fans more than any available qb this year if that's what we're trying to do.

but, given the way mr. blank seems to want to run this team, he's more interested in drafting or brining in the players who will "put butts in seats" rather than produce a winning team environment. he has his rules about who he will not bring in, but he does target exciteablility over necessity when team building.

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from the players that are out there, both in fa or the draft, the only thing that is going to excite the fanbase is wins. there are no "omg i've got to go see this qb play" type qb's that are going to be out there this offseason imo. and like i said in the last post, if it's one of the rookie qb's from the draft, imo, don't play them in year 1. the vast majority of qb's who become the #1 qb at the beginning or very early in their rookie season tend to fail. there are a few exceptions, but if we draft that "exciting qb" who will drive up ticket sales he shouldn't be starting, so why buy tickets for the 2008 season if that's why you are buying. if we hold off on a qb this year & draft a stafford or tebow in 2009 (if they come out), i think that would stir the fans more than any available qb this year if that's what we're trying to do.

but, given the way mr. blank seems to want to run this team, he's more interested in drafting or brining in the players who will "put butts in seats" rather than produce a winning team environment. he has his rules about who he will not bring in, but he does target exciteablility over necessity when team building.

my only (and main) argument on drafting a qb in round one is this. and your post kind of supports it. a rookie ot can come in an be sucessful much sooner, and at a better success rate than a qb.

with that said, we might be better taking our qb this year, to get that learning year out of the way. we could try to get on to winning sooner then. not to mention leftwich and harrington are only under contract through next season. the timing would be perfect to hand over the reigns.

we could then take an ot in the 2nd this year (rumor is there could be 10+ ots with round 1 grades) and if needed take an ot in the first next year as well. we would then be able to start the more ready one @ lt, and let the other get some lumps at rt, either starting or behind weiner.

that is my only big argument favoring a qb with our top pick, but i feel it is a valid and strong argument, which is why i have not dismissed the idea.

i know it isnt likely, but i would also be fine if we called cle offering our #1 for brady quinn, and maybe trying to get a pick in return if our pick is real high. quinn is a better prospect than the big 3 this year (imo and some draftniks) and he would be ready to come in right away if needed. i dont know that cle would bite, but with anderson having a pro bowl year, and them needing a first, you never know. not to mention quinns total deal is less than the signing bonus alone of taking a qb with a top 3 pick.

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from the players that are out there, both in fa or the draft, the only thing that is going to excite the fanbase is wins. there are no "omg i've got to go see this qb play" type qb's that are going to be out there this offseason imo. and like i said in the last post, if it's one of the rookie qb's from the draft, imo, don't play them in year 1. the vast majority of qb's who become the #1 qb at the beginning or very early in their rookie season tend to fail. there are a few exceptions, but if we draft that "exciting qb" who will drive up ticket sales he shouldn't be starting, so why buy tickets for the 2008 season if that's why you are buying. if we hold off on a qb this year & draft a stafford or tebow in 2009 (if they come out), i think that would stir the fans more than any available qb this year if that's what we're trying to do.

but, given the way mr. blank seems to want to run this team, he's more interested in drafting or brining in the players who will "put butts in seats" rather than produce a winning team environment. he has his rules about who he will not bring in, but he does target exciteablility over necessity when team building.

tebow? blink.giflaugh.gif

yeah, to be our fb. but he's not an nfl qb.

now stafford, that's another story. but neither of them are coming out after next year as qb's(w/very few exceptions) stay all 4 yrs.

and we need to draft a qb in '08, not in '09 or 2010. the longer we wait on this the more it'll set this franchise back.

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tebow? blink.giflaugh.gif

yeah, to be our fb. but he's not an nfl qb.

now stafford, that's another story. but neither of them are coming out after next year as qb's(w/very few exceptions) stay all 4 yrs.

and we need to draft a qb in '08, not in '09 or 2010. the longer we wait on this the more it'll set this franchise back.

you stole my line about teblow. tongue.gif

all i'm saying is that he would create a buzz & put local butts in seats, not that he'll be better than an average nfl qb at best. (of course we've done the average qb who creates massive buzz before)

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