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mock draft, 10/29/07


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here is how i see the draft unfolding before us:

1st- miami- glen dorsey, dt, lsu- their run defense is a punchline by itself, and they need youth and talent along their defenseive front. dorsey definately provides a lot of both.

2nd- st. louis- jake long, ot, michigan- he is considered by most the best ot in this draft (though i have concerns about his ability to play lt in the nfl), and the rams need someone to groom as orlando pace's replacement, because he has been prone to injury the last couple of years, and is 32 now i believe.

3rd- ny jets- darren mcfadden, rb, arkansas- as much as i'd like to trade a pick to the cowboys for their 2 1st round selections, it's not possible if he's off the board. the jets could try for the same thing, however in this situation i think they would take him because they need a rb. whether they keep him or not is up to them and jerry jones.

4th- falcons...

now, in this situation i am 110% hoping we trade down. i love matt ryan and would love to select him, but no qb in this draft is worth a top 5 pick right now, ryan included. with the top 3 players that i like in this draft off the board, we need to trade down for better value on our selection. luckily, chris long and calais campbell figure to be selected in a range close to here, and since ne has sf's #5 selection, someone could leapfrog trying to get long for the 3-4 scheme like ne also has. here are the next selections:

5th- ne(from sf)-

6th- raiders-

7th- vikings-

8th- bengals-

9th- texans-

10th- bears-

who might want to trade up? well, from that perspective (this is my first time looking at it also) no one would want to move up for the 3-4 de chris long, so he figures to be gone at #5. however, the raiders, vikings, texans and bears might all like a wr. and desean jackson is a wonderful returner, another thing the raiders, vikings and texans could use. the vikings and bears, however, figure to want a qb in the 1st round, and both are in fairly good position to accomplish that goal.

so, it is between the raiders and the bengals for trade down possibilities (since the texans have nothing to offer since we already have their 2nd rounder, they just dont have the ammo). the raiders would move up only for calais campbell or desean jackson. however, with ne sitting pretty ready to take chris long, at least one of them will be on the table, so they dont need to move up (they have enough holes to fill). the bengals, however, have the ammo and they need an impact defensive end. campbell doesnt figure to fall to #8, and if he made it past the raiders then the vikings would likely select him because of their poor pass rush. so, the bengals elect to move up to #4 to select calais campbell, a julius peppers-like freak of nature at de.

4th- bengals (from falcons)- calais campbell, de, miami- might be a slight reach here, but he has all the measurables and athleticism you'd like in a de. at 6'8", 280 he runs a 4.7-4.8 40, which is just ridiculous. the bengals need defensive playmakers, and aside from justin smith they have none on the defensive line. getting campbell before the raiders can draft him means they have justin smith and campbell at de, which will help their woeful pass defense with some added pressure on the qb.

5th- ne(from sf)- chris long, de, virginia- the rich get richer. honestly, how are they this lucky? they must have a crystal ball in boston, either that or god is a huge patriots fan. long is perfect for the 3-4 scheme, and despite not having eye-popping statistics or measurables, he is an outstanding defensive end and has the perfect genes for a dlineman (he is the son of hof player howie long).

6th- raiders- desean jackson, wr, california- they could use ol help, but unless they trade down there is no one close to worth this pick at ol. sam baker and oher or clady would be better values just outside of the top 10 imo. jerry porter and ronald curry have been decent this year, but jackson is a very good deep threat and is a bigger playmaker than ted ginn was or is in my opinion. he is an awesome returner and that is just a bigger plus for the raiders, who could use a playmaker on special teams and at wr.

7th- vikings- matt ryan, qb, boston college- i would love to get ryan, but rick spielman, one of the pieces of the "triangle of authority" for the vikings is in love with ryan. he is very high on him and unless something changes fairly drastically, they would like to pick him here. tarvaris has not played especially well and they have gone on record saying they will draft a qb whether he steps up his play this year or not. that doesn't make much sense to me, but apparently he only got half a season to prove whether he could start, and hes only what, 24? i guess this is why they've never won a superbowl either...

8th- falcons (from bengals)- andre' woodson, qb, kentucky- i thought about selecting sedrick ellis, dt, usc here, but i'm not sure we'd make that pick, and he is a much better fit for the "tampa-2" scheme than our scheme, or so it would seem. i may really like ryan, but i would be very happy with woodson also. he puts up arguably better numbers than ryan despite playing better competition, but that is also with a much better supporting cast than ryan has at his disposal. however, woodson has a great arm, is very accurate and is good at reading and dissecting defenses. his arm is definately strong enough to throw the ball around in our scheme, much like leftwich's arm. some argue that he has been the best qb in the sec for 2 years, even better than russell. he has been very consistent, has been a 4 year starter and has gotten better with each year he has started at kentucky. i would be more than happy to get woodson on draft day. he seems to be the safer pick of the 3, and even though i think ryan's intangibles are the best of the draft, woodson is definately rated 2nd in that regard. he led a comeback to upset the #1 team in the nation (lsu) in triple overtime, and threw the winning touchdown pass. that impressed me as much as anything about him.

so, there is our first round pick. now, we will have three 2nd round selections to toy around with. normally i try to draft according to the concrete selections we have, but all of the options i looked at were very un-appealing for us this time, so i decided to bend my own rules a bit. here goes nothing.

1st- andre' woodson, qb, kentucky- reasoning is just above.

2nd- tony hills, ot, texas- i really like this kid. he might be slightly undersized for our scheme, but weighing in at 305-310 is not small. not only that, but he could easily add 10 pounds or so on an nfl caliber weight training regimen and diet. also, he is one of the few consensus picks to translate to lt very well in this deep group of ots this year, and that says a lot. hopefully he lasts until the 2nd (we have a very early pick, obviously) so we can bring him in to play lt and compete with foster for playing time as a rookie. after they both gain some experience that will be a very deep position on our offensive line, now who would have ever thought that??

2nd(bengals)- chris ellis, de, virginia tech- if you watched the bc-vt game, you saw ellis blow by gosder cherilus at least a few times with his speed, beating him to the outside to put pressure on matt ryan. cherilus is considered a 1st round ot prospect and he did not have any better than a mediocre game playing opposite ellis. he is a very good speed rusher and would be an ideal backup to abraham at re. in previous mocks i haven't had an extra pick this high to spend on a de, but that is one area of concern for m

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that is a draft i could very well live with, and -love- the balmer pick. watched him tear up the miami offense earlier this year, and have been keeping tabs on him since. as for woodson, i think out of the top 3, woodson will have a more immediate impact. ryan will be the #1 qb in the draft, and will most likely have a better career, but woodson is more ready in the short-term.

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that is a draft i could very well live with, and -love- the balmer pick. watched him tear up the miami offense earlier this year, and have been keeping tabs on him since. as for woodson, i think out of the top 3, woodson will have a more immediate impact. ryan will be the #1 qb in the draft, and will most likely have a better career, but woodson is more ready in the short-term.

thanks for the comments man, i love balmer to death. in ncaa football 08 and in real life. but youre right, he was tossin the interior lineman like rag dolls at times against miami.

well, it doesnt matter what i think about woodson vs ryan if ryan is off the board. that made the selection easier. laugh.gif

but the vikings seem to love ryan, ive been reading about it, even sid hartman had it in an article this morning. thats when you know everyones talking about it. laugh.giflaugh.giflaugh.gif

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if you want woodson you take him with the 4th pick.

ryan will be exposed eventually and woodson will raise his stock even more this offseason

i love this draft, but i'm not sure we can live with mcclure at center much longer. either datish needs to step up and win the job, or we're going to have to find a new center. i'd rather it was in fa than through the draft, because our o-line is already going to be pretty young next season with blalock and at least one or other young player (foster, ojinnaka, rookie ot/og, etc.), but... nice draft! smile.gif

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pretty good mock.

although i want ryan over woodson, if not, then henne in either the 2nd or 3rd.

thanks.

henne is ridiculously overrated, and hes not even considered a 1st round prospect anymore. i have zero interest in adding him. he will be no better than a backup in the nfl, even if he gets drafted by the colts or patriots.

and nuccah, womack is a temporary replacement (and probably upgrade) for our rg situation because he fits the scheme much better than forney does, and even if womack does get injured we could play clabo if we werent comfortable playing a rookie.

forcing a selection like that doesnt mean your draft is good. you will be handing out a lot of 3/10s if you grade taht way, but thats your problem, not mine. my draft filled a lot of holes and needs for us, and thats the truth. we wont fix the whole oline in one offseason, but if you want to try, then go right ahead.

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not sure why would the bengals trade up for campbell when he figures to be there at #8? i don't think the patriots want to grab him.

as for atlanta not drafting players petrino has played against, petrino has shown more of a propensity to draft opoosing players from college than those from louisville (stephen nicholas). i'm also sure petrino remembers woodson airing it out for two long td's vs. louisville in 2006 (an otherwise forgettable game for woodson and uk) and i'm sure he took notice of woodson winning the game vs. louisville earlier this year.

also this notion that woodson has much better talent around him than ryan isn't true. i think that neither guy has a bunch of blue chip talent around them, but i think it's about on par.

boston college had 2 linemen drafted last year, and in 2008, cherilus will be no worse than a 2nd rounder, ryan will be selected in the 1st, andre callendar will be drafted as well.

for kentucky, woodson is a first rounder, rafael little and keenan burton will be drafted as will jacob tamme at te. the last uk player drafted was probably dwayne robertson or artrose pinner in 2003.

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why would the bengals trade up for campbell when he figures to be there at #8?

as for atlanta not drafting players petrino has played against, petrino has shown more of a propensity to draft opoosing players from college than those from louisville.

he remembers woodson airing it out for two long td's in 2006 and i'm sure he took notice of woodson winning the game vs. louisville earlier this year.

yeah, because both the raiders and vikings would pass on him unconditionally. rolleyes.gif

the raiders might if they liked desean jackson that much, but the vikings pass rush is terrible. and even if they loved matt ryan they would not pass on campbell, at least imo. they have a speed rusher now in brian robison, but he is not the starter and might not be for a while. campbell would fill the void left by the constantly injured erasmus james, and would give them a boost in their pass rush.

if you think theyd just pass on him then you havent done your hw, im sorry.

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yeah, because both the raiders and vikings would pass on him unconditionally. rolleyes.gif

the raiders might if they liked desean jackson that much, but the vikings pass rush is terrible. and even if they loved matt ryan they would not pass on campbell, at least imo. they have a speed rusher now in brian robison, but he is not the starter and might not be for a while. campbell would fill the void left by the constantly injured erasmus james, and would give them a boost in their pass rush.

if you think theyd just pass on him then you havent done your hw, im sorry.

the vikings may not have a pass rush, but they do have 2 dt that can't be run on. why would they spend a #1 on a rotational player, when they can go for an edge pass rusher?

the raiders are the same way, but not to the identical extent as minnesota.

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the vikings may not have a pass rush, but they do have 2 dt that can't be run on. why would they spend a #1 on a rotational player, when they can go for an edge pass rusher?

the raiders are the same way, but not to the identical extent as minnesota.

so if you cant run on them, wouldnt it make sense to pass?

they have no pass rush, so they get someone they can plug in at le (which is what erasmus was supposed to play) and they would finally get a pass rush from the le spot. they have udeze and robison at re, they dont need anymore straight speed rushers. campbell can get them pressure even if he cant beat the ot to the outside, but has enough speed that he could pose a problem for rt's in the nfl, especially since many of them cant handle speed rushers, which is why they are rts.

the raiders also have derrick burgess, so remind me why theyd get another speed rusher?

the vikings have 2 good res that they like, and the raiders have at least 1. so why would they get an edge rusher?

theyd get a le to compliment the rush they are starting to get or are getting from the re position.

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several problems with your mock. why do you think the cowboys are so enamored with mcfadden? they have two very good backs.

warrick dunn has zero chance of being a falcon next year.

the kid from cal the wr will not go inside top 10.

why draft a kicker when they are a dime a dozen? there are actually good free agents that could be picked up right now.

i do agree with your first 3 picks though.

the falcons big priority is to make a huge splash and get household names in like mcfadden, several of the qb's and the like.

season tickets are likely to drop to around 50000 next year with the way things are looking now. they need to give the fans in the atlanta area a reason to come to dome.

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just as long as childress is the head coach for the vikings, i doubt they will draft another young developmental quarterback. ryan will take two or three years to develop, and childress knows that he doesn't have that much time left in minnesota. so im thinking that they will either go sleeper in the later rounds or acquire chad pennington or derek anderson somehow.

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just as long as childress is the head coach for the vikings, i doubt they will draft another young developmental quarterback. ryan will take two or three years to develop, and childress knows that he doesn't have that much time left in minnesota. so im thinking that they will either go sleeper in the later rounds or acquire chad pennington or derek anderson somehow.

i strongly disagree, because childress has little say in the personnel decisions, regardless of what he may think. spielman, the director of scouting for the vikings loves ryan to death, and the one thing keeping the vikings offense from being more consistent is a decent quarterback behind center. they have said they will draft one or look to draft one regardless of how well tarvaris plays, and that has nothing to do with what childress thinks.

and what makes you think desean jackson wont go in the top 10? especially when there is no ot worth the pick for the raiders and when that team so badly needs a deep threat in the passing game? ive seen him mocked at #7 and #8, once going to the vikings, so i strongly disagree with what you said.

i doubt dunn is a falcon next year too, and i think he might get cut, but i didnt want to have norwood and forte alone on the depth chart, so i kept him. originally he was under the cuts portion.

a dime a dozen? there might be 2-3 kickers available in facy, but their teams or someone else will pay top dollar for one. kickers are very important in todays nfl, and i doubt we will be able to get a good, consistent one in facy, so i think we should draft one.

we dont need to make a huge splash, we should be building up the oline, the dline and the front 7, and improving our qb situation. we dont need to take an exciting player like mcfadden unless he is the bpa, and i hope we dont trade up for him when we have so many needs.

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several problems with your mock. why do you think the cowboys are so enamored with mcfadden? they have two very good backs.

warrick dunn has zero chance of being a falcon next year.

the kid from cal the wr will not go inside top 10.

why draft a kicker when they are a dime a dozen? there are actually good free agents that could be picked up right now.

i do agree with your first 3 picks though.

the falcons big priority is to make a huge splash and get household names in like mcfadden, several of the qb's and the like.

season tickets are likely to drop to around 50000 next year with the way things are looking now. they need to give the fans in the atlanta area a reason to come to dome.

two very good backs? jones is on the outs in dallas, and jerry jones looks to be seriously after mcfadden (college ties)

if a team is in need of a wr, jackson will be the first one off the board.

as for the kicker part, where the **** has that gotten us lately? we've lost 2 games that i can see so far (jax and ten), so we definitely need to get a guy who will get the job done.

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woodson will never be a falcon. remember petrino knows him well, and he would never draft him. mark it down.

if petrino knows him well, then why not pull a belicheck and get players that have hurt him over the years? since he (petrino) comes straight from college he would know more about these players than any other coach in the nfl, which is a huge advantage for us.

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if petrino knows him well, then why not pull a belicheck and get players that have hurt him over the years? since he (petrino) comes straight from college he would know more about these players than any other coach in the nfl, which is a huge advantage for us.

not a bad point. it can be a big advantage, a lot of people use the same argument for brohm, i find this side of it interesting though.

comments are still appreciated. smile.gif

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if petrino knows him well, then why not pull a belicheck and get players that have hurt him over the years? since he (petrino) comes straight from college he would know more about these players than any other coach in the nfl, which is a huge advantage for us.

that's why i hope he doesn't do anything crazy and take pat white who has torched him

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